Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Anyone seeing Wicked this week? I’m so stinking excited: going to a Wednesday early access screening, which looks very well sold. Thinking this may be a BIG box office.

I'll probably go on Thursday. So far predictions I've seen show ~$100M weekend, some have it around $80M, so we'll see.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I'll probably go on Thursday. So far predictions I've seen show ~$100M weekend, some have it around $80M, so we'll see.

I certainly hope it shocks everyone with a bigger than expected box office.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This weekends big budget misfire, brought to you by Amazon.

Dwayne Johnson & Chris Evans’ $200M+ Christmas Action Movie ‘Red One’ Opens To $34M: Is It A Bomb Or A Streamer’s Rounding Error? — Sunday AM Box Office

The expensive Red One from Amazon MGM Studios made $3.7 million in previews, with the Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans movie now eyeing a $35M opening.

deadline.com

I’m curious to see if this gets a word of mouth boost next week… the critics hate it but it has a 90% audience score on rotten tomatoes.

Sounds like a silly and fun Christmas movie, something critics hate but “real” people tend to love.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Anyone seeing Wicked this week? I’m so stinking excited: going to a Wednesday early access screening, which looks very well sold. Thinking this may be a BIG box office.

We are hosting a soundtrack listening party at my store, with promotional posters to give to all attendees, plus one beanie of some kind via raffle at the end. Folks are encouraged to dress up or at least wear pink or green.

I am interested to see both Wicked and Gladiator, so we’ll see how that plays out. I tend to avoid a theater unless it’s at least half empty.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I’m curious to see if this gets a word of mouth boost next week… the critics hate it but it has a 90% audience score on rotten tomatoes.

Sounds like a silly and fun Christmas movie, something critics hate but “real” people tend to love.

I wonder if the TV commercials are missing the mark. I was under the impression the older guy playing Santa was the lead, rather than it being “a Dwayne Johnson movie.”

I wasn’t really paying attention, though.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Wicked being 2 hrs and 40 minutes is absolutely ridiculous. My wife and daughter were excited about it until I told them the run time. They will now wait for the home release

 

[DKampy]

I certainly hope it shocks everyone with a bigger than expected box office.

Box office pro has projections between 110-140…. I have to agree…even just 100 million seems too low… I can feel the hype on this one

I have plans to see it on the Friday after Thanksgiving… it’s been a tradition for my wife and I to get our Covid vaccine and see a movie that day for the last few years…. Will probably see Gladiator this weekend

 

[MisterPenguin]

Wicked being 2 hrs and 40 minutes is absolutely ridiculous. My wife and daughter were excited about it until I told them the run time. They will now wait for the home release

Did you also mention it's just part one?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Wicked being 2 hrs and 40 minutes is absolutely ridiculous. My wife and daughter were excited about it until I told them the run time. They will now wait for the home release

I love Wicked, so I’m excited, but I firmly agree that movies these days are too long. If they insist on 2.5+ hour long movies, theatres need to bring back intermissions.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m curious to see if this gets a word of mouth boost next week… the critics hate it but it has a 90% audience score on rotten tomatoes.

Sounds like a silly and fun Christmas movie, something critics hate but “real” people tend to love.

An A- CinemaScore also supports your hypothesis. Probably not dramatically within the theatrical window, but long term it could be rewatched.

 

[DKampy]

I’m curious to see if this gets a word of mouth boost next week… the critics hate it but it has a 90% audience score on rotten tomatoes.

Sounds like a silly and fun Christmas movie, something critics hate but “real” people tend to love.

I don’t see it having huge impact… I think the big holiday releases will steal the attention from Red One…. But would guess it is going to become a holiday tradition for many years to come… which was probably Amazons goal … as it was originally intended for streaming only

 

[Disney Irish]

An A- CinemaScore also supports your hypothesis. Probably not dramatically within the theatrical window, but long term it could be rewatched.

It was one and done for me. I can't see it going into any holiday rotation for many people, it just doesn't have much of that holiday "cheer" that people look for in their holiday movies. But then again people still think Die Hard is a Christmas movie even though everyone involved including the stars, director, and writers say its not, so what do I know.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t see it having huge impact… I think the big holiday releases will steal the attention from Red One…. But would guess it is going to become a holiday tradition for many years to come… which was probably Amazons goal … as it was originally intended for streaming only

Well it was also intended to become a franchise but I don't see that happening.

 

[Ghost93]

I love Wicked, so I’m excited, but I firmly agree that movies these days are too long. If they insist on 2.5+ hour long movies, theatres need to bring back intermissions.

In theory the 2.5 hour runtime might seem like a deterrent yet almost all of the highest grossing movies of all time — both Avatars, Titanic, Avengers Endgame — are more than 3 hours long. This isn't just a recent trend. If you adjust for inflation and look at the 10 highest grossing movies of all time, movies like Gone with the Wind, the Sound of Music, the Ten Commandments and Dr. Zhivago are all 3-4 hours.

If Wicked is a good movie, the runtime won't be a problem. When people are having a great time, they don't want a movie to end. It's only when the movie is mediocre that audiences really begin to feel the length.

 

[LittleBuford]

In theory the 2.5 hour runtime might seem like a deterrent yet almost all of the highest grossing movies of all time — both Avatars, Titanic, Avengers Endgame — are more than 3 hours long. This isn't just a recent trend. If you adjust for inflation and look at the 10 highest grossing movies of all time, movies like Gone with the Wind, the Sound of Music, the Ten Commandments and Dr. Zhivago are all 3-4 hours.

If Wicked is a good movie, the runtime won't be a problem. When people are having a great time, they don't want a movie to end. It's only when the movie is mediocre that audiences really begin to feel the length.

I do wish they’d bring back intermissions, though.

 

[brideck]

I love Wicked, so I’m excited, but I firmly agree that movies these days are too long. If they insist on 2.5+ hour long movies, theatres need to bring back intermissions.

The long runtime was making me think that they're incorporating more from the novel into the musical's story, but that seems hard to do while maintaining that PG rating, so I'm not sure what all's going into turning a ~3 hour musical into a movie that's twice that length.

 

[Disney Irish]

The long runtime was making me think that they're incorporating more from the novel into the musical's story, but that seems hard to do while maintaining that PG rating, so I'm not sure what all's going into turning a ~3 hour musical into a movie that's twice that length.

And a two-parter.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The long runtime was making me think that they're incorporating more from the novel into the musical's story, but that seems hard to do while maintaining that PG rating, so I'm not sure what all's going into turning a ~3 hour musical into a movie that's twice that length.

I do hope they've expanded into the world of Wicked more, although I do doubt they'll have the famous... scenes from the book... that involve oil... and... R rated scenes.

 

[BrianLo]

I've said it before too; the first half of the musical is where the good half of the music is. Though I suspect they'll reprise and maybe add a song or two to fluff out part two.

The first half of the musical is also 90 minutes and 60 in the back end. I'm not opposed in theory to a split, but it's just a clearly stronger first act musical. All of which doesn't really impact this movie, but rather the sequel. Which I guess based on the musical run length is more or less going to be mostly new material.

 

[Ghost93]

I do wish they’d bring back intermissions, though.

Oh I agree. I enjoyed seeing Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon in theaters last year, but I would have really appreciated an intermission midway through at some point.

I saw a screening of the extended versions of the Lord of the Rings in theaters as well. I thought there would be an intermission at the point where — if you own the DVDs or Blu Rays — the first disc ends and it says "the story will continue on Disc 2." Instead, The Return of the King extended cut — which is FOUR HOURS — continued with no intermission. Thankfully I already have seen the movie a gazillion times, so I didn't mind briefly leaving to use the restroom.

Earlier this year I saw Gone with the Wind in theaters as part of a Fathom Events showing. The screening kept the intermission intact and I very much appreciated it!