Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Immaculate (which is a similar movie to First Omen) had a $9M budget, but didn't manage to do well before being pulled or maybe it was a limited run.

Neon stuff never seems to stick around that long (2-4 weeks before being cut substantially), so the 4-week run here was about the best possible outcome. It's already out on pVOD as of this week, which matches other recentish releases like Ferrari or Infinity Pool.

Interestingly, this should ultimately end up on Hulu alongside The First Omen yet again.

To your larger point, the horror audience continues to not really turn up in 2024. Maybe Abigail will be the one to light the screen on fire. It certainly looks like fun. ETA: Industry projections apparently put it at $12m-$15m for this weekend, which puts it... barely ahead of Night Swim. So, more of the same...

 

[celluloid]

Neon stuff never seems to stick around that long (2-4 weeks before being cut substantially), so the 4-week run here was about the best possible outcome. It's already out on pVOD as of this week, which matches other recentish releases like Ferrari or Infinity Pool.

Interestingly, this should ultimately end up on Hulu alongside The First Omen yet again.

To your larger point, the horror audience continues to not really turn up in 2024. Maybe Abigail will be the one to light the screen on fire. It certainly looks like fun. ETA: Industry projections apparently put it at $12m-$15m for this weekend, which puts it... barely ahead of Night Swim. So, more of the same...

It will be hard for it, against a split audience across many Rated R releases including non-horror.

The last few weeks after Kong X Godzilla have been Rated R releases.


However, don't fret for Night Swim. It was financially a hit. Horror may not bring in the most, but it also typically has a smaller investment.

Abigail will need to perform better, as it has a 32 million budget.

 

[Disney Irish]

Neon stuff never seems to stick around that long (2-4 weeks before being cut substantially), so the 4-week run here was about the best possible outcome. It's already out on pVOD as of this week, which matches other recentish releases like Ferrari or Infinity Pool.

Interestingly, this should ultimately end up on Hulu alongside The First Omen yet again.

To your larger point, the horror audience continues to not really turn up in 2024. Maybe Abigail will be the one to light the screen on fire. It certainly looks like fun. ETA: Industry projections apparently put it at $12m-$15m for this weekend, which puts it... barely ahead of Night Swim. So, more of the same...

My only reason for doubting that for Immaculate is because Neon usually labels it as "Limited" if it is indeed a limited release, which they didn't do for Immaculate. So I'm thinking it was expected to have a longer run, but was pulled early when it didn't bring in more.

 

[DKampy]

Neon stuff never seems to stick around that long (2-4 weeks before being cut substantially), so the 4-week run here was about the best possible outcome. It's already out on pVOD as of this week, which matches other recentish releases like Ferrari or Infinity Pool.

Interestingly, this should ultimately end up on Hulu alongside The First Omen yet again.

To your larger point, the horror audience continues to not really turn up in 2024. Maybe Abigail will be the one to light the screen on fire. It certainly looks like fun. ETA: Industry projections apparently put it at $12m-$15m for this weekend, which puts it... barely ahead of Night Swim. So, more of the same...

I was coming to mention the same in response to those that want to talk about The First Omen’s box office but fail to mention the other disappointing Horror film returns in what had been a reliable income source these last few years… I thought maybe we just had not had a great horror film yet…but people still did not come out in force for The First Omen… so now I wonder what it is… Over saturation of horror movies overall maybe… one bit of positive is The First Omen only dropped 54% in it’s 2nd weekend which is a great hold for the horror genre as those films are usually extremely front-loaded… so perhaps there is some good word of mouth

 

[Disney Irish]

I was coming to mention the same in response to those that want to talk about The First Omen’s box office but fail to mention the other disappointing Horror film returns in what had been a reliable income source these last few years… I thought maybe we just had not had a great horror film yet…but people still did not come out in force for The First Omen… so now I wonder what it is… Over saturation of horror movies overall maybe… one bit of positive is The First Omen only dropped 54% in it’s 2nd weekend which is a great hold for the horror genre as those films are usually extremely front-loaded… so perhaps there is some good word of mouth

And its not going to change, as I think almost every studio now has a bunch of horror films in production now. I think I've seen like at least a dozen new horror related trailers for upcoming movies over the last couple weeks.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I was coming to mention the same in response to those that want to talk about The First Omen’s box office but fail to mention the other disappointing Horror film returns in what had been a reliable income source these last few years… I thought maybe we just had not had a great horror film yet…but people still did not come out in force for The First Omen… so now I wonder what it is… Over saturation of horror movies overall maybe… one bit of positive is The First Omen only dropped 54% in it’s 2nd weekend which is a great hold for the horror genre as those films are usually extremely front-loaded… so perhaps there is some good word of mouth

I’m expecting Abagail to do very well this weekend. It looks like a lot of fun.

 

[Dranth]

Uni is the leader of animation for audiences.

They certainly make more profit of late but people (in general) tend to mistake profit with audience preference.

Last year Mario cleaned up but the other three Uni releases didn't do much on the audience front. Ruby Gillman and Trolls Band Together combined had about as many theater goers as Wish. Meanwhile Elemental had nearly twice the audience of Migration.

This year will be interesting and Uni looks like they are in good shape with:

• Kung Fu Panda 4 - doing well enough.
• Despicable Me 4 - should be big.
• The Wild Robot - Don't know what to make of this one.

Meanwhile Disney has:

• Inside Out 2 - Should do well. At least KFP4 numbers.
• Moana 2 - Is an interesting one to me as I can see this being big just based on the love of the first one but I can also see it fall flat.

For 2024 I wouldn't at all be surprised that the battle for butts in seats in the theater comes down to how well Moana and Despicable Me do.

Peaking beyond this year at 2025, Uni has Dog Man and The Bad Guys 2 while Disney has Elio and Zootopia 2. I would expect Disney to come out on top with just the currently confirmed releases but I am sure dates will move around that can change the picture.

2026 and beyond who knows as that is to far out to trust any dates yet.

 

[celluloid]

I was coming to mention the same in response to those that want to talk about The First Omen’s box office but fail to mention the other disappointing Horror film returns in what had been a reliable income source these last few years… I thought maybe we just had not had a great horror film yet…but people still did not come out in force for The First Omen… so now I wonder what it is… Over saturation of horror movies overall maybe… one bit of positive is The First Omen only dropped 54% in it’s 2nd weekend which is a great hold for the horror genre as those films are usually extremely front-loaded… so perhaps there is some good word of mouth

Partly that, partly it did not interest people the way The Last Exorcism did and

Saturation of Rated R movies right now is huge. It is part of the reason Kong, Kung Fu and Ghostbusters are not lower on the list.

Night Swim did great for its budget perspective and coming from an Indie short concept that was picked up as not a franchise release and no celebrity under directorial debut. Objectively successful, not sure about subjectively as I have not seen it and reviews seemed medium at best.

I saw Monkey Man. It was nothing too special. Typical revenge story, but a good pick up by Jordan Peele to make some easy dough as people that went to see it got mostly what they came for, not bad for a movie that was paid for and bought cheap from Netflix to do that well in theaters.

 

[celluloid]

They certainly make more profit of late but people (in general) tend to mistake profit with audience preference.



2026 and beyond who knows as that is to far out to trust any dates yet.

People tend to not spend money on something they would not prefer. There is a huge gap between releases.

I don't see Wish, Strange World and Raya aging too well to ever be preferred. It is not just profitability to budget; it is attendance that Dreamworks and Illumination have been winning in theaters since 2021 as well.

If elemental a Pixar specialty of abstract, or Kung Fu Panda 4 or Wish could not top Migration...

It is funny to even write as there is such a gap.


Inside Out 2 I have my doubts will surpass Despicable me 4 much. I keep thinking Minions reach their fatigue, but Despicable Me also keeps bringing families in every time, even after the spin offs. It may not surpass its attendance at all.
The Wild Robot for Dreamworks, tough to say, but at least it is an original instalment for a movie from Dreamworks. At least they are still producing originals for as much as they get teased about being a sequel house, in a year that Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 are what we have to look forward to. The former being rushed from the Disney Plus special series it was going to be.

 

[Dranth]

I don't see Wish, Strange World and Raya aging too well to ever be preferred.

I agree overall. Personally I didn't find Wish to be nearly as bad as people wanted to make it out to be. Strange World was just boring while Raya was fine.

It is not just profitability to budget; it is attendance that Dreamworks and Illumination have been winning in theaters since 2021 as well.

Yes, though 2021 was a weird year so I tend to ignore it. Uni absolutely killed it in 2022 but 2023 felt down to me (outside of Mario of course). This year I can see going either way while Next year looks like Disney to me. Beyond that, who knows.

If elemental a Pixar specialty of abstract, or Kung Fu Panda 4 or Wish could not top Migration...

I think I am misreading or misunderstanding this line because it looks like you are saying Migration had more viewers than those other three movies and I doubt that is what you meant.

Anyway, whole point being I know from a studio profitability standpoint Uni is doing much better than Disney but that just means Uni budgets better, not that they make vastly better movies. Except 2022 when they were actually much better.

 

[celluloid]

Yes, though 2021 was a weird year so I tend to ignore it. Uni absolutely killed it in 2022 but 2023 felt down to me (outside of Mario of course). This year I can see going either way while Next year looks like Disney to me. Beyond that, who knows.

Why ignore it when we had releases from both rival studios within the same amount of time that outperformed the other?

Don't forget Sony had a hit animated feature last year too.

I think if the Live Action gets people in, Uni will have the family films down pat next year as well.

 

[Dranth]

Why ignore it when we had releases from both rival studios within the same amount of time that outperformed the other?

Two reasons.

One, movies that released in 2021 still had to deal with social distancing, closures due to staffing issues at theaters and a large part of the general public not wanting to leave the house much. All that got better as the year went on but that also means that it is hard to gauge how well something would have done vs. something else unless they released in the same time frame.

With that in mind, a movie making 100 million at the box office in January of 2021 is more impressive than one making 250 million 11 months later in December just because of how much more headwind that early movie would have faced.

Two, Disney was still in the Chapek strategy of tripping all over themselves trying to release things on D+ as fast as possible while Uni stopped that during the year. For example, Encanto was only in theaters one month until its D+ release while Sing 2 had the full six month wait for streaming.

For me, 2022 felt like the first full year that was back to normal so that is why I leave 2020 and 2021 in their own weird sub category.

 

[celluloid]

Two reasons.

One, movies that released in 2021 still had to deal with social distancing, closures due to staffing issues at theaters and a large part of the general public not wanting to leave the house much. All that got better as the year went on but that also means that it is hard to gauge how well something would have done vs. something else unless they released in the same time frame.

Sing 2 and Encanto were both Thanksgiving to Christmas time releases. It is not like one was Jan and one was December. Plenty of films that came out from earlier that year and premiered also on streaming same day, such as WB, Broke 100 million or more in theaters.
The pandemic was hurting international numbers far more than domestic by Christmas time of 2021. And it is evident that Sing 2 still performed better overseas than while releasing in tougher times. Much better than Encanto.

Sing 2 was available on home video in multiple platforms by January.

So Illumination by your criteria, wins here too.


Streaming fast is really not that a concern as recent evidence shows. People just want better movies.

Shrek 2...which has streamed on Peacock for a long time, and has been on home video for decades just outperofmred any Pixar theater releases of products that can stream. People like the Universal brand.

Sony just did well with Spiderman with Toby McGuire back in theaters. That so far has performed well even though anyone can watch that on streaming.

 

[Dranth]

Sing 2 was available on home video in multiple platforms by January.

Maybe to rent but the home release (DVD) came out in March of 2022 and best I can tell the streaming debut (not rental) was in June of 2022, six months after release.

You really don't think Encanto would have done MUCH better had it not gone almost direct to streaming, for free? It had just as many views in its first week of streaming on D+ as the entire theatrical release. If just some of those views switch to the theater because streaming wasn't an option then it continues to build word of mouth and likely has a much better theatrical run.

It ended up being streamed in 2022 more than Turning Red (second most streamed movie of the year) and Sing 2 (third highest) combined.

Streaming fast is really not that a concern as recent evidence shows. People just want better movies.

Yes, people want better movies but I don't agree that streaming fast isn't an issue most of the time. How much of an impact it has is directly proportional to the number of people who have the streaming platform. If I release a movie on streaming the same day, I release it in theaters but nearly everyone who wants to see it has my streaming platform that is going to significantly impact my box office. How can it not? On the other hand, if only a few people have my streaming service, it will have little impact.

I would add that event movies or cultural touchstones would be a big exception to this. For example, if Disney gets their mess together and makes a great looking Star Wars movie, I think a LOT of people would choose to go to the theaters over the streaming release.

Sony just did well with Spiderman with Toby McGuire back in theaters. That so far has performed well even though anyone can watch that on streaming.

Okay, a movie that hasn't been in the theaters for 22 years, rounding up, made 700k according to Box Office Mojo for its first three days. I would say that is okay given the type of movie. Just for comparison, Jurassic Park (a much better movie from a audience perspective) did 1.7 million over the same amount of time last year.

Anyway, I don't think we are that far off overall I just think you discount some factors quicker than I would.

 

[erasure fan1]

I would add that event movies or cultural touchstones would be a big exception to this. For example, if Disney gets their mess together and makes a great looking Star Wars movie, I think a LOT of people would choose to go to the theaters over the streaming release.

I think this is a big part of it. Certain types of films lend themselves to a theater experience. So films like no way home, Maverick, mario, all still do extremely well I believe, even if it streaming 3 weeks later. Because they are movies people wanted to see. That's why I harp on the marketing and that opening week so much. If a film is getting a tepid response, and the marketing stunk, people will wait for streaming. Plain and simple.

You brought up star wars. I've seen every star wars movie in the theater, starting with a new hope. If the next release doesn't look great, and the response is not good, I'll wait. If it looks fantastic, I don't care if it's streaming the same day, I'm seeing it in a theater because that's where star wars is the best.

 

[celluloid]

Maybe to rent but the home release (DVD) came out in March of 2022 and best I can tell the streaming debut (not rental) was in June of 2022, six months after release.

You really don't think Encanto would have done MUCH better had it not gone almost direct to streaming, for free? It had just as many views in its first week of streaming on D+ as the entire theatrical release. If just some of those views switch to the theater because streaming wasn't an option then it continues to build word of mouth and likely has a much better theatrical run.

It ended up being streamed in 2022 more than Turning Red (second most streamed movie of the year) and Sing 2 (third highest) combined.


Yes, people want better movies but I don't agree that streaming fast isn't an issue most of the time. How much of an impact it has is directly proportional to the number of people who have the streaming platform. If I release a movie on streaming the same day, I release it in theaters but nearly everyone who wants to see it has my streaming platform that is going to significantly impact my box office. How can it not? On the other hand, if only a few people have my streaming service, it will have little impact.


Okay, a movie that hasn't been in the theaters for 22 years, rounding up, made 700k according to Box Office Mojo for its first three days. I would say that is okay given the type of movie. Just for comparison, Jurassic Park (a much better movie from a audience perspective) did 1.7 million over the same amount of time last year.

Yes. Jurassic Park for its 30th Anniversary with marketing to that did much better than re-relasing Shrek 2 randomly playing this spring. Both hits for Universal to re-release. I would expect JP to outperofrm a re-release of Shrek 2.

What is your point?

Both of these did better than anything Disney Plus put into theaters from Pixar(THREE TIMES they did that to three movies)

Sony also made a half million so far re-relasing Sam Rami's Spiderman for a limited run that has been able to be viewed from home in multiple ways. Something that has been on Disney Plus, widely available and all that proportional streaming service nonsense.


Why on earth could Five Nights at Freddy's do so well when it released on Peacock the same day? It is not the only example of success in both. Not exactly a big screen must and people could just join Peacock trial and watch it for free vs paying for them or their teens and them to see it in theaters?

People are willing to pay for theatrical viewings what they are willing to pay.

Disney just can't reach that category as strongly as others until they try harder for an amount of time to be trusted to do so again.

Wish and Haunted Mansion, just two examples where nothing streamed closed to the release date theatrically, and they still were gone out of theaters so fast.

 

[Dranth]

Yes. Jurassic Park for its 30th Anniversary with marketing to that did much better than re-relasing Shrek 2 randomly playing this spring. Both hits for Universal to re-release. I would expect JP to outperofrm a re-release of Shrek 2.

What is your point?

Both of these did better than anything Disney Plus put into theaters from Pixar(THREE TIMES they did that to three movies)

Sony also made a half million so far re-relasing Sam Rami's Spiderman for a limited run that has been able to be viewed from home in multiple ways. Something that has been on Disney Plus, widely available and all that proportional streaming service nonsense.

You don't think there is a difference between live action nostalgia classics that were released 20-30 years ago vs. animated movies that came out in the last couple?

I also think there is a much larger market for non-animated rereleases.

Why on earth could Five Nights at Freddy's do so well when it released on Peacock the same day? It is not the only example of success in both. Not exactly a big screen must and people could just join Peacock trial and watch it for free vs paying for them or their teens and them to see it in theaters?

I would argue it is a cultural touchstone for many millennials and under which helped drive the box office. Being on Peacock is less of a hit than a more popular service but still, the box office would have been better had streaming not been an option.

Disney just can't reach that category as strongly as others until they try harder for an amount of time to be trusted to do so again.

Wish and Haunted Mansion, just two examples where nothing streamed closed to the release date theatrically, and they still were gone out of theaters so fast.

Haunted Mansion was indeed bad so let's set that aside. Let's also say that you are right and streaming has minimal impact for a moment. If that is true, why is FNAF a success (with the audience which is what we have been talking about) while Wish is not? Wish did similar numbers to FNAF. One movie did 297.2 million with reviews of 32% critics and 87% audience while the other did 254.8 million with reviews of 48% critics and 81% audience.

Looking at those numbers I would say one movie is a little better than the other, not that one is a success and the other is a failure. Sure, to the studios it is certainly true that one stunk and the other didn't but again, this whole discussion started based on the audience, not how much the studio makes.

 

[Disney Irish]

You don't think there is a difference between live action nostalgia classics that were released 20-30 years ago vs. animated movies that came out in the last couple?

I also think there is a much larger market for non-animated rereleases.


I would argue it is a cultural touchstone for many millennials and under which helped drive the box office. Being on Peacock is less of a hit than a more popular service but still, the box office would have been better had streaming not been an option.


Haunted Mansion was indeed bad so let's set that aside. Let's also say that your right and streaming has minimal impact for a moment. If that is true, why is FNAF a success (with the audience which is what we have been talking about) while Wish is not? Wish did similar numbers to FNAF. One movie did 297.2 million with reviews of 32% critics and 87% audience while the other did 254.8 million with reviews of 48% critics and 81% audience.

Looking at those numbers I would say one movie is a little better than the other, not that one is a success and the other is a failure. Sure, to the studios it is certainly true that one stunk and the other didn't but again, this whole discussion started based on the audience, not how much the studio makes.

Its worth noting, that Peacock at the time only had about 25M subs (only 33M today Freddy didn't have that huge an impact on new subs growth) compared to D+ which had over 150M. So with D+ having 6x as many subs, you would think that would impact their theatrical a lot more than the streamer that is almost in last place based on subs.

Quality plays a part. But many have complained about Disney films having lack of quality for well over a decade now, so clearly that wasn't impacting their theatrical prior to D+. So yeah being able to stream it for free at ones leisure has had a larger impact on Disney's theatrical than on Uni.

 

[celluloid]

f that is true, why is FNAF a success (with the audience which is what we have been talking about) while Wish is not? Wish did similar numbers to FNAF.

Looking at those numbers I would say one movie is a little better than the other, not that one is a success and the other is a failure. Sure, to the studios it is certainly true that one stunk and the other didn't but again, this whole discussion started based on the audience, not how much the studio makes.

Because one movie did it said out to do and was a smash hit with respect to its budget.

While the other did not deliver and was a flop. Wish Cost three times as much and marketing cost more. It is relative and important. If Avatar only made 250 million domestic and 250 million internationally for 500 million...it would not be considered a theatrical success, even though we could say it had more people possibly arrive than who saw Kong x Godzilla

We are now bragging that Wish of Disney's bread and butter category (a movie that did not premier same say streaming) is equal to a Blumhouse film, a collaboration studio currently under Universal known for smaller to mid budget horror that premiered same day streaming.

I think you are further losing your point.

 

[celluloid]

Quality plays a part. But many have complained about Disney films having lack of quality for well over a decade now, so clearly that wasn't impacting their theatrical prior to D+. So yeah being able to stream it for free at ones leisure has had a larger impact on Disney's theatrical than on Uni.

That's how branding and audience loyalty works with trust. You can get away with it for a bit, but sucks in the long run.
Almost as if Dreamworks and Illumination in the last fifteen years have come in and ready to fill the void.

No coincidence.