Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

The $140 Million on marketing Little Mermaid was a boastful brag before the movie opened, as they thought it was actually going to be successful at the global box office. It wasn't. But it was a terribly handy financial metric to use later that summer when we were discussing how much money Little Mermaid lost at the box office.

The $460 Million figure was a vague reference by Tom Morris discussing the box office "disappointment" of Elemental after it didn't do well at the domestic box office, and he was trying to excuse it by saying theme park merchandise and DVD sales could buoy profitability.

For purposes of this thread, let's just stick to the basics; Marketing is 50% of Production budget, domestic tickets earn a 60% revenue to a studio, while overseas tickets earn a 40% revenue to a studio.

Pixar President Addresses Elemental's 'Disappointing' Debut Weekend, Insists It Will Be 'Profitable' - IGN

After a disappointing start, Pixar's Elemental has turned things around at the worldwide box office.

www.ign.com

View attachment 780174

Here is the actual article not the edited IGN version -

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound: ‘This Will Certainly Be a Profitable Film’

Pixar's president Jim Morris talks "Elemental," which is enjoying a box office rebound after stumbling in its debut.

variety.com

"Will “Elemental” be profitable?

We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now, it should do better than break even theatrically. And then we have revenue from streaming, theme parks and consumer products. This will certainly be a profitable film for the Disney company.

Where do you think ticket sales will top out worldwide?

We’re hoping it’ll get to maybe $460 million. I always wish higher. I’d hate to disappoint myself, but I’d love to see it get to half a billion."


So this isn't vague. They were hoping it would get to $460M WW at the end of its run, which he indicates as doing better than break even theatrically. So it doing $25M more WW is 100% in the profitability range.

Again we had this discussion previously.

 

[LittleBuford]

You could make a case if you said just Kung Fu Panda 4 as they were be closer to comparable. But Kung Fu Panda as a whole. Elemental is not even close.

Elemental is not even close to what?

 

[celluloid]

Kung Fu Panda 4 has already sold more tickets than Elemental in the United States, which is Pixar's key market.

Although Kung Fu Panda 4 just opened in South Korea last weekend, and the totals there from its debut weekend haven't been reported yet. It will be interesting to see where Kung Fu Panda 4 lands at the global box office a month from now, compared to Elemental's full run last summer.

Something fun to watch for until we get Planet Of The Apes 9: Weekend At Charlton's next month!

Crazy how long Kung Fu Panda has been out and how long it has hung around coming back into the top playing spots of a divided box office. With all the Rated R and random out right now. It is clear that the family market in theaters is anything but dead when a fourth installment of a Dreamworks sequel can stay in play like this and Wonka recently broke so big worldwide.

 

[Dranth]

To the bold. I don't think you like the truth of a recent example that Kung Fu Panda 4 is more popular to the general public than Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny, Wish, The Marvels or Elemental.

Well, to date KFP4 has had less people go see it than Elemental so I am not sure how you can say that. Looking at it they will end up very similar so an accurate statement would be:

"It looks like KFP4 will end up just as popular as Elemental and more popular than Wish, The Marvels or IJ when comparing their theatrical runs."

That I would agree with and have no idea why you think it would bother me.

As for the overall premise that somehow Uni movies doing better than Disney movies bothers me, no. I've enjoyed both off and on over the years. Parks wise I have a preference but movie wise, not really. I just want what I watch to be entertaining.

I think the bigger problem is you are mistaking disagreement over the impact of external factors and pointing out logical issues with statements of popularity as defending Disney.

 

[celluloid]

Elemental is not even close to what?

Kung Fu Panda as an entire franchise. You only said Kung Fu Panda. Not Kung Fu Panda 4.

 

[LittleBuford]

Kung Fu Panda 4 has already sold more tickets than Elemental in the United States, which is Pixar's key market.

Why would you discount the international market when it was collectively the source of most of Elemental and Kung Fu Panda 4's revenue? Moreover, the post I was responding to didn't limit its claim to American audiences.

 

[celluloid]

Well, to date KFP4 has had less people go see it than Elemental so I am not sure how you can say that. Looking at it they will end up very similar so an accurate statement would be:

"It looks like KFP4 will end up just as popular as Elemental and more popular than Wish, The Marvels or IJ when comparing their theatrical runs."

That I would agree with and have no idea why you think it would bother me.

As for the overall premise that somehow Uni movies doing better than Disney movies bothers me, no. I've enjoyed both off and on over the years. Parks wise I have a preference but movie wise, not really. I just want what I watch to be entertaining.

I think the bigger problem is you are mistaking disagreement over the impact of external factors and pointing out logical issues with statements of popularity as defending Disney.

There are multiple discussions going on.

I was not trying to instill bother and I don't know if it bothers you are not. It is a fact.

I pointed it out because in no world would so many a year ago think that Kung Fu Panda 4 would outgross Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, The Marvels and Wish's theatrical runs. Odds are one of those family or franchise based films from Disney would be an easy hit. It is on its way to also surpass Elemental.

 

[Dranth]

Because this is the Box Office thread, it should be pointed out that Kung Fu Panda 4 is already vastly more profitable for its studio than Elemental was. Elemental still lost money, after all, owing to its bloated $200 Million budget from Pixar.

The inciting incident here was a comment about POPULARITY of movies, not how much they made for their studio. We all know that Disney is not doing good on the making money part of late. No one believes KFP4 isn't making more money for Uni than Elemental did for Disney.

 

[celluloid]

The inciting incident here was a comment about POPULARITY of movies, not how much they made for their studio. We all know that Disney is not doing good on the making money part of late. No one believes KFP4 isn't making more money for Uni than Elemental did for Disney.

Do we all know that?

Because some people claim that somehow Disney Plus is saving their 90 million to 192 million losses for theatrical runs for every movie and that in due time, all will be healthy profitable for Disney. Not a healthy business model to rely on. Just as home video sales are always a nice save, and sometimes HBO and home video made things cult classics, but you can't rely on every movie to be that.

Of course, some people think that movie theaters will be gone from existence by the end of our lifetimes.

Again, not just Elemental either. Dial of Destiny, The Marvels, Haunted Mansion. Wish.

Wonka and Kung Fu Panda 4 are proof that there is a lot of viability in the theatrical family market. Disney is just not a company in on the game. Maybe Inside Out 2 will change that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disney makes good movies, they just forgot how to make profitable movies.

It was apparent from 2023, TWDC is ok with this.

 

[Dranth]

I pointed it out because in no world would so many a year ago think that Kung Fu Panda 4 would outgross Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion, The Marvels and Wish's theatrical runs. Odds are one of those family or franchise based films from Disney would be an easy hit. It is on its way to also surpass Elemental.

Really? Anyone actually thought Haunted Mansion would outdo KFP4? The others I could see but anyone who thought HM would do much was crazy.

 

[celluloid]

Really? Anyone actually though Haunted Mansion would outdo KFP4? The others I could see but anyone who thought HM would do much was crazy.

There is a lot of crazy thoughts like that around here.

Odds are one of those films would have done it if not by reputation, by chance. The brand is damaged.
Disney probably thought it would. For sure they wanted it to perform far better than the last attempt. They spent 150 million on it and an insane amount of marketing. And to many Dreamworks is seen as an inferior film company with lower standards. Not everyone is as even keel as you and as you said, looking for best entertainment without a care of the studio who did it.

 

[LittleBuford]

Kung Fu Panda as an entire franchise. You only said Kung Fu Panda. Not Kung Fu Panda 4.

There is no Elemental franchise for such a comparison to be made in the first place! You were the one who made the erroneous claim that "Kung Fu Panda 4 is more popular to the general public than . . . Elemental"; I wouldn't have discussed the two films in relation to each other otherwise.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Really? Anyone actually thought Haunted Mansion would outdo KFP4? The others I could see but anyone who thought HM would do much was crazy.

I buy the theory someone brought up that Haunted Mansion was meant as a direct to D+ movie and the theatrical release was a decision to try and get some extra money out of it.

The online release being schedule for October supports this. Not to mention the presence of several actors from other D+ productions, so their appearances could have been part of a multiple appearance type deal.

 

[BuddyThomas]

My point is that you're discussing the film as if it's somehow inordinately—and for you unwatchably—gruesome, even though The Exorcist, which you had no trouble sitting through, went much further back in 1973.

He didn’t even see The First Omen so he doesn’t know what he is talking about. (Quelle surprise)

As someone who saw both of them, I can guarantee you that The Exorcist is 100 times more “gruesome” than The First Omen. The First Omen is suspenseful and has a few violent moments but it is not something packed from start to finish with graphic violence.

 

[TP2000]

Why would you discount the international market when it was collectively the source of most of Elemental and Kung Fu Panda 4's revenue? Moreover, the post I was responding to didn't limit its claim to American audiences.

I'm not discounting it. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kung Fu Panda do very well in South Korea, now that it finally opened there last weekend.

Domestically, Kung Fu Panda 4 already did better than Elemental at the box office.

Globally, Elemental will probably have done better than Kung Fu Panda 4. Combined, both films will be about the same for their global box office take.

The problem for us Disney fans though, is that Elemental cost more than twice as much money to make as Kung Fu Panda 4. Which is why Disney lost over a Billion at the box office last year, owing to their bloated mega-budgets for movies that do mediocre box office at best (Elemental, Guardians 3, Little Mermaid), to bomb miserably at worst (Indy5, Haunted Mansion, The Marvels, etc.)

It's 2024 now though, so a new year! And yet the first film from Disney's studios this year is also going to lose money. Even though The First Omen had a relatively tiny budget of $30 Million, and even if they only spent a shoestring marketing budget of $15 Million on it, The First Omen looks like it will lose about $20 Million at the box office.

Next up.... Planet Of The Apes 9!

 

[Dranth]

I buy the theory someone brought up that Haunted Mansion was meant as a direct to D+ movie and the theatrical release was a decision to try and get some extra money out of it.

The online release being schedule for October supports this. Not to mention the presence of several actors from other D+ productions, so their appearances could have been part of a multiple appearance type deal.

Sure, that I could see and makes a lot of sense for Disney. Even more so if it went over budget. No reason to not try and claw back a little bit in the box office.

I don't even think it was as terrible as most and enjoyed it for what it was. However, in the context of what was presented that people were thinking it would out perform a reasonably well loved-franchise, I can't see it (not directed at you, just a general statement).

 

[LittleBuford]

I'm not discounting it. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kung Fu Panda do very well in South Korea, now that it finally opened there last weekend.

Domestically, Kung Fu Panda 4 already did better than Elemental at the box office.

Globally, Elemental will probably have done better than Kung Fu Panda 4. Combined, both films will be about the same for their global box office take.

The problem for us Disney fans though, is that Elemental cost more than twice as much money to make as Kung Fu Panda 4. Which is why Disney lost over a Billion at the box office last year, owing to their bloated mega-budgets for movies that do mediocre box office at best (Elemental, Guardians 3, Little Mermaid), to bomb miserably at worst (Indy5, Haunted Mansion, The Marvels, etc.)

It's 2024 now though, so a new year! And yet the first film from Disney's studios this year is also going to lose money. Even though The First Omen had a relatively tiny budget of $30 Million, and even if they only spent a shoestring marketing budget of $15 Million on it, The First Omen looks like it will lose about $20 Million at the box office.

Next up.... Planet Of The Apes 9!

I was responding to a specific (and erroneous) claim about the respective popularity of Elemental and Kung Fu Panda 4 among general audiences. My point was equally specific and had (and still has) nothing to do with budgets and profitability.

 

[LittleBuford]

He didn’t even see The First Omen so he doesn’t know what he is talking about. (Quelle surprise)

As someone who saw both of them, I can guarantee you that The Exorcist is 100 times more “gruesome” than The First Omen. The First Onen is suspenseful and has a few violent moments but it is not something packed from start to finish with graphic violence.

I look forward to seeing it.

Since it's been brought up, The Exorcist is among my favourite films, and one whose violent imagery is entirely justified by the narrative (though some of the scenes would today rightly be considered inappropriate for such a young actor to perform).

 

[celluloid]

There is no Elemental franchise for such a comparison to be made in the first place! You were the one who made the erroneous claim that "Kung Fu Panda 4 is more popular to the general public than . . . Elemental"; I wouldn't have discussed the two films in relation to each other otherwise.

I think the odds of that being a thing are slim. So don't fret.

Your phrasing, It still matters.

I did not say Kung Fu Panda is bigger than Indiana Jones. Because it isn't.


I did say Kung Fu Panda 4 is a bigger money maker and has been able to bring more money than Dial of Destiny, because it is.