Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

celluloid

Well-Known Member
We were talking about what the public likes, not how much the movie made for the studio.



Which is the more popular with the general public?
It is relative to show business and the discussion.
An audience is relative to the budget and scope of the movie. Studio's always want more. but realistically. A budget determines the expected scope of audience turn out. Otherwise filmakers would be awarded any budget they want from producers.

To the bold. I don't think you like the truth of a recent example that Kung Fu Panda 4 is more popular to the general public than Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny, Wish, The Marvels or Elemental.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
A real-life example was Cleopatra, which lost huge amounts of money for Fox despite being the highest-grossing film of 1963 and winning multiple Oscars.

Don't leave out the part where that nearly ended Fox as a studio right then and there.

So we are now pretending that 2021-2023 was Disney mostly putting out films like the Cleopatra nearly bankrupting situation? Not good for box office or the company.

Disney can't survive on 90 percent of their films just become a home cult classic.

And if they want to, they need to do better than Wish, Haunted Mansion, Dial of Destiny and even Encanto. Elemental was a nice start, but boy do they need to do better and reign it in to earn audience trust to more of that.

Someone better get Sleeping Beauty out of her nap again.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
To the bold. I don't think you like the truth of a recent example that Kung Fu Panda 4 is more popular to the general public than Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny, Wish, The Marvels or Elemental.
Elemental has actually sold many more tickets than Kung Fu Panda 4: globally $496,444,308 versus $454,964,521. Perhaps Kung Fu Panda 4 will ultimately outsell Elemental, but as things stand, it’s incorrect to say the former is more popular than the latter.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
That's how branding and audience loyalty works with trust. You can get away with it for a bit, but sucks in the long run.
Almost as if Dreamworks and Illumination in the last fifteen years have come in and ready to fill the void.

No coincidence.
Except you avoided the part where D+ has more than 6x as many subs as Peacock. Which would explain why more audiences would be willing to wait for something on D+ than on Peacock just by the fact that D+ has more subs.

And if brand and audience loyalty was really as dire for Disney as you claim why do they continue to have more subs with D+ than Peacock? Wouldn't they be taking huge hits in quarter after quarter especially with its core domestic subs if that was the case? Or on the flip side wouldn't Peacock be gaining huge subs quarter after quarter with all the fans of Dreamworks and Illumination content?

Neither of which are happening, so one has to assume that Disney brand and audience loyalty isn't as dire as you and some others make it seem. And that Dreamworks and Illumination aren't driving sub growth to Peacock like it has for Disney with D+, and that is for sure something that Roberts is questioning the Uni team about all the time. Now that isn't to say that there isn't some Disney brand and audience loyalty issues that could affect things longer term if it doesn't get corrected. But by all accounts they appear to be addressing some of that, and we'll see how it turns out.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Don't leave out the part where that nearly ended Fox as a studio right then and there.
That reinforces the point I was trying to make anyway!

So we are now pretending that 2021-2023 was Disney mostly putting out films like the Cleopatra nearly bankrupting situation?
Nope. I was merely providing a real-life example of how something can be both popular and unprofitable.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Except you avoided the part where D+ has more than 6x as many subs as Peacock. Which would explain why more audiences would be willing to wait for something on D+ than on Peacock just by the fact that D+ has more subs.

And if brand and audience loyalty was really as dire for Disney as you claim why do they continue to have more subs with D+ than Peacock? Wouldn't they be taking huge hits in quarter after quarter especially with its core domestic subs if that was the case? Or on the flip side wouldn't Peacock be gaining huge subs quarter after quarter with all the fans of Dreamworks and Illumination content?

Neither of which are happening, so one has to assume that Disney brand and audience loyalty isn't as dire as you and some others make it seem. And that Dreamworks and Illumination aren't driving sub growth to Peacock like it has for Disney with D+, and that is for sure something that Robert is questioning the Uni team about all the time. Now that isn't to say that there isn't some Disney brand and audience loyalty issues that could affect things longer term if it doesn't get corrected. But by all accounts they appear to be addressing some of that, and we'll see how it turns out.

Because 10 bucks or less a month on average is cheaper than going to the movies?

Your argument is Disney is losing money in theaters and at home.

Dreamworks won't drive as much sub growth just for Peacock because it is a recent success at this level has happened in the last few years and also....becuase soon after Dreamworks ends up on Netflix through parntership. Which is a better placement for a company and there was a prior deal. Peacock also does not invest nearly the same amount of original content budgets.

Peacock is not the only place to watch Universal films. They are also earning money and eyeballs from Netflix, the biggest subscriber base.

So now we point out how Universal again, is making more with their dreamworks properties than Disney is with their live action or animated.

Keep digging and pointing out how dire things are. It is funny that you keep proving the point.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Because 10 bucks or less a month on average is cheaper than going to the movies?

Your argument is Disney is losing money in theaters and at home.

Dreamworks won't drive as much sub growth just for Peacock because it is a recent success at this level has happened in the last few years and also....becuase soon after Dreamworks ends up on Netflix through parntership. Which is a better placement for a company and there was a prior deal. Peacock also does not invest nearly the same amount of original content budgets.

Peacock is not the only place to watch Universal films. They are earning money from Netflix, the biggest subscriber base.

So now we point out how Universal again, is making more with their dreamworks properties than Disney is with their live action or animated.

Keep digging and pointing out how dire things are. It is funny that you keep proving the point.

Actually the fact that streaming is cheaper is the very reason why someone would wait for D+ then go to the theaters. Something that many of us have stated here for 4 years now, and what some posters say anecdotally is the reason why they also wait for D+. This could also explain why D+ also has one of the lowest churn rates in the industry, matching Netflix. And D+ appears to be turning profitable here this quarter or next, so no they aren't really losing money anymore.

But on the flip side, why aren't more people willing to sign up for Peacock at $5.99/mo which is less than D+ and Netflix? If Dreamworks and Illumination are really successful, and I'm not doubting they are, it should be driving growth for Peacock, but that just doesn't appear to be the case. One has to wonder why, and again I'm sure something that Roberts is asking Uni Team about all the time.
 
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celluloid

Well-Known Member
Actually the fact that streaming is cheaper is the very reason why someone would wait for D+ then go to the theaters. Something that many of us have stated here for 4 years now, and what some posters say anecdotally is the reason why they also wait for D+. This could also explain why D+ also has one of the lowest churn rates, matching Netflix. And D+ appears to be turning profitable here this quarter or next, so no they aren't really losing money anymore.

But on the flip side, why aren't more people willing to sign up for Peacock at $5.99/mo which is less than D+ and Netflix?
Yes, and when Disney is losing money theatrically and at from home...they not only bought Fox. They want to be like them?

Because Disney Plus also pairs with Hulu, ESPN and has many discounted partnerships through other providers.
Also large in part because Disney Plus started strong with Star Wars and Marvel on top of their legacy. They churned out billions of dollars in original content. Far more than Peacock. So again, its relative and not just a win. And its not going to go well for them now. Not really sustainable to have movies don't want to see in theaters or at home.

Back to your other comments now that we answered your flip diversion question. Disney is losing more money and eyeballs than Universal currently has for their films.

It can all change. Uni was on a sucky time from the early 2000s for a good while.

But currently. Disney is in that bad spot.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Yes, and when Disney is losing money theatrically and at from home...they not only bought Fox. They want to be like them?
Not sure where the Fox piece is coming in as that wasn't part of the conversation. And again D+ appears to be turning profitable. So no they aren't losing money from "home".

Because Disney Plus also pairs with Hulu, ESPN and has many discounted partnerships through other providers.
Also large in part because Disney Plus started strong with Star Wars and Marvel on top of their legacy. They churned out billions of dollars in original content. Far more than Peacock. So again, its relative and not just a win. And its not going to go well for them now. Not really sustainable to have movies don't want to see in theaters or at home.
Not everyone has the Bundle. And a large majority of those discounts ended long ago, and those that remain are on the Ad tier, so they still make money. The only new recent discount was the Spectrum deal, which is also on the Ad tier, so Disney makes money off those subs anyways even if they don't pay the retail rate.

Back to your other comments now that we answered your flip diversion question. Disney is losing more money and eyeballs than Universal currently has for their films.
What metric are you're using for more "eyeballs"? As for "losing more money" that can change is short order on a number of fronts including lower budgets overall.

It can all change. Uni was on a sucky time from the early 2000s for a good while.

But currently. Disney is in that bad spot.
Yes it can all change. And Disney was in a bad spot in the 70s and 80s, its the nature of the industry. Not every studio can be on top all the time.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
If you managed to watch the entirety of The Exorcist, which includes far more disturbing scenes than the one you describe (notably the infamous “crucifix stabbing” scene), I’m confused as to why The First Omen sounds so shocking to you.

It was 50 years ago. I honestly can't even remember who my date was that night, although I could whittle it down to a small handful of names if I had to. But I remember the pea soup scene like it was 2 weeks ago.

When I read the description of some of the medically gory scenes in The First Omen, I chuckled and thought "I think I'll stick to The Crown and old Julia Child episodes, thank you" 🤣
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
It was 50 years ago. I honestly can't even remember who my date was that night, although I could whittle it down to a small handful of names if I had to. But I remember the pea soup scene like it was 2 weeks ago.

When I read the description of some of the medically gory scenes in The First Omen, I chuckled and thought "I think I'll stick to The Crown and old Julia Child episodes, thank you" 🤣
My point is that you're discussing the film as if it's somehow inordinately—and for you unwatchably—gruesome, even though The Exorcist, which you had no trouble sitting through, went much further back in 1973.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
My point is that you're discussing the film as if it's somehow inordinately—and for you unwatchably—gruesome, even though The Exorcist, which you had no trouble sitting through, went much further back in 1973.

Besides the obvious of memory and tastes of audience changing of something 50 years ago. People individually change too.

I don't watch nor want the same gore fest stuff I watched when I was a teen.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Elemental has actually sold many more tickets than Kung Fu Panda 4: globally $496,444,308 versus $454,964,521. Perhaps Kung Fu Panda 4 will ultimately outsell Elemental, but as things stand, it’s incorrect to say the former is more popular than the latter.

Because this is the Box Office thread, it should be pointed out that Kung Fu Panda 4 is already vastly more profitable for its studio than Elemental was. Elemental still lost money, after all, owing to its bloated $200 Million budget from Pixar.

It looks like both films will end up about the same at the global box office, around $480 Million. But because Elemental cost over twice as much to produce than Panda did, Elemental lost a lot of money for Pixar.

Elemental: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $92 Domestic, $133 Overseas = $75 Million Loss
K.F. Panda 4:
$85 Production, $43 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $112 Overseas = $89 Million Profit and counting

Kung Fu Fighting.jpg


My point is that you're discussing the film as if it's somehow inordinately—and for you unwatchably—gruesome, even though The Exorcist, which you had no trouble sitting through, went much further back in 1973.

I thought The Excorcist was gross. Did I not mention that? I'd like to imagine I sat through it because I had a cute date. ;)
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Because this is the Box Office thread, it should be pointed out that Kung Fu Panda 4 is already vastly more profitable for its studio than Elemental was. Elemental still lost money, after all, owing to its bloated $200 Million budget from Pixar.

It looks like both films will end up about the same at the global box office, around $480 Million. But because Elemental cost over twice as much to produce than Panda did, Elemental lost a lot of money for Pixar.

Elemental: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $92 Domestic, $133 Overseas = $75 Million Loss
K.F. Panda 4:
$85 Production, $43 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $112 Overseas = $89 Million Profit and counting

View attachment 780168



I thought The Excorcist was gross. Did I not mention that? I'd like to imagine I sat through it because I had a cute date. ;)
Didn't we go over this already and was settled last year, Elemental turned a profit at ~$460M WW as confirmed by Pixar.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Because this is the Box Office thread, it should be pointed out that Kung Fu Panda 4 is already vastly more profitable for its studio than Elemental was. Elemental still lost money, after all, owing to its bloated $200 Million budget from Pixar.
As was very clear for my post, I was responding to the claim that Kung Fu Panda "is more popular to the general public" than Elemental. For that to be true, it would have to have sold more tickets, which it hasn't (at least not yet).
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Didn't we go over this already and was settled last year, Elemental turned a profit at ~$460M WW as confirmed by Pixar.

We generally use the "Marketing equals half the Production budget" scenario in this thread. If we assume that they really cut back on marketing for Elemental, and only spent $30 Million on global marketing, that's how you could get to a $460 Million break even point using the industry standard revenue take of 60% of domestic and 40% of overseas sales.

That would give Pixar $25 Million in ticket sales over their $460 Million break even point. Which would equate to about $13 Million in profit from their total global sales of $485 Million.

Disney admitted themselves that they spent $140 Million on marketing for Little Mermaid last year on top of its $250 Million budget, which is why I've been comfortable using the traditional 50% of production for the Elemental marketing budget.

But if you'd like to put a little sticky note on your screen that says "Elemental made $13 Million in profit" next to the data showing Kung Fu Panda 4 has made $89 Million in profit and counting, be my guest! :)
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
As was very clear for my post, I was responding to the claim that Kung Fu Panda "is more popular to the general public" than Elemental. For that to be true, it would have to have sold more tickets, which it hasn't (at least not yet).

Kung Fu Panda 4 has already sold more tickets than Elemental in the United States, which is Pixar's key market.

Although Kung Fu Panda 4 just opened in South Korea last weekend, and the totals there from its debut weekend haven't been reported yet. It will be interesting to see where Kung Fu Panda 4 lands at the global box office a month from now, compared to Elemental's full run last summer.

Something fun to watch for until we get Planet Of The Apes 9: Weekend At Charlton's next month!
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
We generally use the "Marketing equals half the Production budget" scenario in this thread. If we assume that they really cut back on marketing for Elemental, and only spent $30 Million on global marketing, that's how you could get to a $460 Million break even point using the industry standard revenue take of 60% of domestic and 40% of overseas sales.

That would give Pixar $25 Million in ticket sales over their $460 Million break even point. Which would equate to about $13 Million in profit from their total global sales of $485 Million.

Disney admitted themselves that they spent $140 Million on marketing for Little Mermaid last year on top of its $250 Million budget, which is why I've been comfortable using the traditional 50% of production for the Elemental marketing budget.

But if you'd like to put a little sticky note on your screen that says "Elemental made $13 Million in profit" next to the data showing Kung Fu Panda 4 has made $89 Million in profit and counting, be my guest! :)
Yes I know how the rule of thumb works, something that has been used and discussed by those of us that have been posting for a very long time on this side of the forum. Its also not a hard rule, as its just an average across the industry, not always relevant for every movie.

So you'll take Disney's word on them spending $140M on marketing for LM but won't take their word on $460M being number when Elemental turns profitable? That is telling.....

Also since we've gone over this multiple times before, maybe you should be the one who can set a sticky note for Elemental being profitable so you remember.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
So you'll take Disney's word on them spending $140M on marketing for LM but won't take their word on $460M being number when Elemental turns profitable? That is telling.....

The $140 Million on marketing Little Mermaid was a boastful brag before the movie opened, as they thought it was actually going to be successful at the global box office. It wasn't. But it was a terribly handy financial metric to use later that summer when we were discussing how much money Little Mermaid lost at the box office.

The $460 Million figure was a vague reference by Tom Morris discussing the box office "disappointment" of Elemental after it didn't do well at the domestic box office, and he was trying to excuse it by saying theme park merchandise and DVD sales could buoy profitability.

For purposes of this thread, let's just stick to the basics; Marketing is 50% of Production budget, domestic tickets earn a 60% revenue to a studio, while overseas tickets earn a 40% revenue to a studio.


Elementary Education.jpg
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
As was very clear for my post, I was responding to the claim that Kung Fu Panda "is more popular to the general public" than Elemental. For that to be true, it would have to have sold more tickets, which it hasn't (at least not yet).

You could make a case if you said just Kung Fu Panda 4 as they were be closer to comparable. But Kung Fu Panda as a whole. Elemental is not even close.
 

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