Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Yeah, there's also been some modest, qualified - and genuinely promising - successes like Anyone But You, Bob Marley - One Love, and now Challengers, the kind of films that supposedly nobody would go to theaters to see anymore

I guess Challengers? I don't think it's on pace to do more than $40m-$45m domestic, though. That's obviously great for a Guadagnino picture, but not exactly great overall. It may have been #1 last weekend, but that was also one of the two worst total weekend takes so far in 2024.

There's no denying the other two, though. Man, the number of old white people I saw coming out for One Love on its opening day...

Having said all that, I can live in the kind of world where this kind of $30m-$50m release becomes the norm. Not sure the current movie theater model can, though.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I guess Challengers? I don't think it's on pace to do more than $40m-$45m domestic, though. It may have been #1 last weekend, but that was also one of the two worst weekend takes overall so far in 2024.

There's no denying the other two, though. Man, the number of old white people I saw coming out for One Love on its opening day...

I’m surprised by the Bob Marley movie. It got a bunch of pretty bad reviews.

The Fall Guy feels like it has the making of a big hit. Hopefully seeing it on Saturday.

 

[brideck]

The Fall Guy feels like it has the making of a big hit. Hopefully seeing it on Saturday.

I guess they're projecting a $30m-$40m opening for The Fall Guy, which would put it firmly in the ~$100m domestic camp. But with good word of mouth, it could definitely leg for more.

 

[Disney Irish]

Having said all that, I can live in the kind of world where this kind of $30m-$50m release becomes the norm. Not sure the current movie theater model can, though.

Its funny to think that it wasn't that long ago that everyone thought that if a movie didn't do $1B it was a failure. And now we're sort of in a period of reset where the box office is being reevaluated and $1B is no longer the threshold to cross.

Of the 54 movies that have crossed $1B 30 of them are Disney or Disney (Avatar/Spider-Man) adjacent and a majority of them happened in the decade between 2009-2019.

I've long said that we're not getting back to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon (if ever). And I don't see anything changing that opinion based on the current 2024-2026 release schedule.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Of the 54 movies that have crossed $1B 30 of them are Disney or Disney (Avatar/Spider-Man) adjacent and a majority of them happened in the decade between 2009-2019.

Shhhhhh. Don’t tell TP2000.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I guess they're projecting a $30m-$40m opening for The Fall Guy, which would put it firmly in the ~$100m domestic camp. But with good word of mouth, it could definitely leg for more.

I think this is helped by the fact that Ryan Gosling is having a moment. Between Barbie, his Oscars performance, and one of the best episodes of SNL in the last few seasons, that bodes well for this film.

I still have very little interest lol. I’ll probably wait for HBO.

Bring me the Apes!

 

[DKampy]

I guess Challengers? I don't think it's on pace to do more than $40m-$45m domestic, though. That's obviously great for a Guadagnino picture, but not exactly great overall. It may have been #1 last weekend, but that was also one of the two worst total weekend takes so far in 2024.

There's no denying the other two, though. Man, the number of old white people I saw coming out for One Love on its opening day...

Having said all that, I can live in the kind of world where this kind of $30m-$50m release becomes the norm. Not sure the current movie theater model can, though.

It could be the lack of big tentpole blockbusters in the first half of the year… but it feels as if film going public habits have change… as films seem to be able to have longer legs as movies dropping above 60% is rare when before it was commonplace

 

[Farerb]

Disney Detonates Four Bombs In Deadline’s 2023 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament

Disney's The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion and Wish, and DC's The Flash were big movies that lost out on profits.

deadline.com

 

[TP2000]

If there's any truth to the stories about this movie originally being pegged for a Hulu release, then they've actually made $8m (BO take - marketing costs) here that they wouldn't have otherwise, raising its profile in the process, and setting it up for a possible pVOD release.

I'm curious where your $8 Million profit figure comes from?

If we assume they only spent a shoestring global marketing budget of $15 Million for The First Omen, on top of the very modest (is it okay to just say "cheap"?) $30 Million production budget for it, Disney is still at a current global box office loss of $21 Million.

How do you figure they have already made $8 Million in profit on this one, instead of a $21 Million loss so far?

The First Omen: $30 Production, $15 Marketing, $12 Domestic B.O. Take, $12 Foreign B.O. Take = $21 Million Loss

 

[TP2000]

Shhhhhh. Don’t tell TP2000.

Don't worry, that was from the previous decade. I'm well aware, even thrilled, that Disney used to make huge profits from its family fare movies circa 2009-2019.

But then a new tone appeared for the 2020's, and it's been a box office disaster for them the past few years. Which is exactly why this thread was started, remember?

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Disney Detonates Four Bombs In Deadline’s 2023 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament

Disney's The Marvels, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Haunted Mansion and Wish, and DC's The Flash were big movies that lost out on profits.

deadline.com

It's unreal how bad 2023 was for Disney.

 

[Farerb]

It's unreal how bad 2023 was for Disney.

You celebrate your 100th anniversary only once.

 

[brideck]

I'm curious where your $8 Million profit figure comes from?

If we assume they only spent a shoestring global marketing budget of $15 Million for The First Omen, on top of the very modest (is it okay to just say "cheap"?) $30 Million production budget for it, Disney is still at a current global box office loss of $21 Million.

How do you figure they have already made $8 Million in profit on this one, instead of a $21 Million loss so far?

Why, it comes from your numbers of course. If the movie had just dropped straight to Hulu as-is, it would simply be a $30m loss, no? But then, if it went that route, you wouldn't even know/care about it.

I never said it made a profit. I said that its theatrical release has made the company more in the end than not putting it in theaters would have done.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm curious where your $8 Million profit figure comes from?

If we assume they only spent a shoestring global marketing budget of $15 Million for The First Omen, on top of the very modest (is it okay to just say "cheap"?) $30 Million production budget for it, Disney is still at a current global box office loss of $21 Million.

How do you figure they have already made $8 Million in profit on this one, instead of a $21 Million loss so far?

The First Omen: $30 Production, $15 Marketing, $12 Domestic B.O. Take, $12 Foreign B.O. Take = $21 Million Loss

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I believe the idea is it would be like any other streaming movie that went to theaters, the budget would have been covered by the streaming service in this case Hulu. I know you don't like those type of transactions because they don't pencil out in your mind, but its valid.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Why, it comes from your numbers of course. If the movie had just dropped straight to Hulu as-is, it would simply be a $30m loss, no? But then, if it went that route, you wouldn't even know/care about it.

I never said it made a profit. I said that its theatrical release has made the company more in the end than not putting it in theaters would have done.

It's about branding as well.

Straight to streaming movies are not going to be as big a draw or have the same perceived value as theatrical movies.

This type of release strategy adds value to Disney+ as it is seen as the home of high quality theatrical movies.

 

[DKampy]

It's about branding as well.

Straight to streaming movies are not going to be as big a draw or have the same perceived value as theatrical movies.

This type of release strategy adds value to Disney+ as it is seen as the home of high quality theatrical movies.

Agreed… production companies are learning straight to streaming has the same stigma as straight to DVD/Blu-ray… you have films that were designed as streaming titles moving to theatrical such as Mean Girls and the upcoming Alien movie

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I guess they're projecting a $30m-$40m opening for The Fall Guy, which would put it firmly in the ~$100m domestic camp. But with good word of mouth, it could definitely leg for more.

That is really low by modern standards of how a movie in the big summer action genre is expected to perform.

Movies used to have $100 million opening weekends without breaking a sweat.

Granted, this isn't a known sequel or franchise film, but it looks good, is being well received, and and has popular leads.

It just goes to show that the number of really high performing movies continue to dwindle.

We used to see mega hits consistently all summer long. Now it tends to be a handful that make it big, with everyone else fighting for table scraps.

 

[TP2000]

Forbes has an article out discussing their box office predictions for Planet Of The Apes 9, as Disney's first summer movie release next weekend. It looks like the budget was around $125 Million, but not confirmed. With a $60 Million marketing budget added in, that would mean Apes 9 will need box office of about $360 Million globally to break even, give or take.

That type of modest box office seems achievable for a change!

"Meaning a $55 million start might be a welcome outcome regardless of how it sounds in the context of traditional May theatrical performances. And Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes still hopes to do perhaps $100 million in its internationally bow, which would give it a nice $150 million (plus or minus) opening.

With a respectably modest budget in the neighborhood of $125 million and a smart marketing campaign so far, Kingdom’s bar for success is relatively low here, and I expect it to have a nice $400-500 million run — that’s sight unseen, so my predictions might change as we get closer to release and I review the film."

‘The Fall Guy’ And ‘Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes’ Launch 2024 Summer Movie Season

Studios and theaters must rethink their approach to summer blockbusters, and the changing landscape might reveal an unexpected path forward — but will studios recognize it?

www.forbes.com

 

[TP2000]

Box Office is out for Thursday, gang! Previewing where things will likely land this weekend, for The First Omen as Disney's only movie in theaters until the Apes arrive next weekend. Only real question is how many theaters The First Omen will hang on to through this weekend, as it had 1,000 theaters nationwide as of yesterday.

We will probably be able to tally up the global box office for The First Omen, as it seems to be flatlining quickly now.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday December 22, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday December 22, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Ghost93]

I have no idea how the new Planet of the Apes movie will do, but my gut instinct tells me around $450-$475 million worldwide. The most recent trilogy was very well made and I enjoyed the movies in theaters, but I never thought about them too much afterward.