Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Well all we can go by now then is that theater attendance has been on an increase per release since 2021.

And that can all change this year or next, or the one after that. Just because it has increased from pandemic lows doesn't mean it will continue to increase forever.

And Disney, not even close to ready to stick to streaming as a primary income when they took a Disney Plus series and are rushing to give it a theatrical release this year.

In the interim I do agree that studios will try to find a happy balance between streaming and theatrical by moving releases back and forth between each. How that will affect the long term, we don't really know yet. It may end up being a self fulfilling prophesy that ends up causing lower box office overall, leading to more streaming releases, etc. Only time will tell.

 

[brideck]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

 

[DKampy]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

I think it will come to how well the film is received…I have not seen any reviews yet

 

[brideck]

I think it will come to how well the film is received…I have not seen any reviews yet

It looks like it premiered at Beyond Fest (https://twitter.com/BeyondFest) yesterday.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

I think I’ve only seen one ad one time.

 

[TalkingHead]

All all we can go by now then is that theater attendance has been on an increase per release since 2021.

And Disney, not even close to ready to stick to streaming as a primary income when they took a Disney Plus series and are rushing to give it a theatrical release this year.

You could argue the opposite — they’re throwing gussied-up tv content into theaters, which suggests a lack of commitment to theatrical-grade product.

AMC’s financials are very bad. Alamo is selling a good portion of their Drafthouse locations. Theatrical has lost a lot of ground in the last two decades. The writing is on the wall. The business can’t survive on subscription services, discount Tuesdays, and getting people to turn out for three tentpoles a year.

 

[celluloid]

You could argue the opposite — they’re throwing gussied-up tv content into theaters, which suggests a lack of commitment to theatrical-grade product.

AMC’s financials are very bad. Alamo is selling a good portion of their Drafthouse locations. Theatrical has lost a lot of ground in the last two decades. The writing is on the wall. The business can’t survive on subscription services, discount Tuesdays, and getting people to turn out for three tentpoles a year.

Millions more in advertising and work to get it to theaters.

It is not just guised up for free. They want that theater money for Moana 2.

If they thought so many would watch it on DIsney Plus could make more money without doing it, they would.
Their brand for that studio certainly needs the help. I do agree that it is going to be hard to get that a theatrical grade product.

But if you say something is not committed to a theatrical grade product, don't you admit that theatrical releases is something people are going to spend more money on than what they are willing to watch at home because it will make more money in theaters first? I think that reinforces the argument.

Edited to be more pertinent.

 

[TalkingHead]

Millions more in advertising and work to get it to theaters.

It is not just guised up for free. They want that theater money for Moana 2.

If they thought so many would watch it on DIsney Plus could make more money without doing it, they would.
Their brand for that studio certainly needs the help. I do agree that it is going to be hard to get that a theatrical grade product.

But if you say something is not committed to a theatrical grade product, don't you admit that theatrical releases is something people are going to spend more money on than what they are willing to watch at home because it will make more money in theaters first? I think that reinforces the argument.

Edited to be more pertinent.

Sorta can’t say without knowing the quality of Moana 2. Certainly seems like they’re gambling that the first movie’s popularity will translate to box office success, and there’s a recognition that shouldn’t be squandered on streaming. But if it feels like a cobbled-together cash grab, that’s going to further the narrative that Disney’s creatively lost its way.

 

[celluloid]

Sorta can’t say without knowing the quality of Moana 2. Certainly seems like they’re gambling that the first movie’s popularity will translate to box office success, and there’s a recognition that shouldn’t be squandered on streaming. But if it feels like a cobbled-together cash grab, that’s going to further the narrative that Disney’s creatively lost its way.

I totally agree with that.

Further evident by the fact that many people, even not in show business know that writing for a television series is not the same automatically as a film structured plot and pace.

Unless this was like a three part special, it is not a simple port over.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I said it was debatable on this part of your post, and we did debate a bit -



We don't know what the future will bring. So we cannot say with any certainty that theaters will indeed be the major source for income of Hollywood in that future. We've debated this many times over in this thread and others and we're not really changing each others opinions here. There is not going to be a finality to this debate. Maybe things turn out ok and in 50 years theaters with floating seats will be around as the major source of income for Hollywood, or maybe the whole thing will have imploded and all theaters are gone due to movies being beamed via chips directly in our brains. I'll be almost on the other side of 100 at that point, so maybe I'll still be around to find out.

So I'm just saying instead of going round and round again for 10 pages lets just see what happens. And I'm happy to revisit it from time-to-time for a few posts as new data come out, such as yearly totals.

We just came off a once-in-a-century respiratory pandemic that shuttered cinemas for a long time and made the world wary of crowds. This came at a moment when streaming was already fairly well established as an alternate method of consuming media. The studios were very ready to move on from the cinema model and took steps to do so. It is very hard to imagine a confluence of events more perfectly designed to kill cinemas.

Yet Cinemas survived and are rebounding. It’s rare we get such clear evidence of the resilience of a cultural institution.

People like going to movies. They like watching movies in groups. They like watching movies on the big screen. That’s why cinemas have survived the Paramount decrees, TV, suburbanization, home video, cable, and every other challenge. Just as importantly, theatrical release serves a vital role for the studios, marking films as legitimate in a way that sending them direct to streaming doesn’t, even with a big PR campaign. We’ve known this for decades, but the last few years have vividly reinforced it.

 

[Casper Gutman]

You could argue the opposite — they’re throwing gussied-up tv content into theaters, which suggests a lack of commitment to theatrical-grade product.

AMC’s financials are very bad. Alamo is selling a good portion of their Drafthouse locations. Theatrical has lost a lot of ground in the last two decades. The writing is on the wall. The business can’t survive on subscription services, discount Tuesdays, and getting people to turn out for three tentpoles a year.

The pandemic hit Alamo at the exact moment it was massively overextended due to incredibly ambitious expansion. Not sure that’s a signal cinema is dead.

 

[Disney Irish]

We just came off a once-in-a-century respiratory pandemic that shuttered cinemas for a long time and made the world wary of crowds. This came at a moment when streaming was already fairly well established as an alternate method of consuming media. The studios were very ready to move on from the cinema model and took steps to do so. It is very hard to imagine a confluence of events more perfectly designed to kill cinemas.

Yet Cinemas survived and are rebounding. It’s rare we get such clear evidence of the resilience of a cultural institution.

People like going to movies. They like watching movies in groups. They like watching movies on the big screen. That’s why cinemas have survived the Paramount decrees, TV, suburbanization, home video, cable, and every other challenge. Just as importantly, theatrical release serves a vital role for the studios, marking films as legitimate in a way that sending them direct to streaming doesn’t, even with a big PR campaign. We’ve known this for decades, but the last few years have vividly reinforced it.

Rebounding to what though, pre-pandemic levels? I think its unlikely at least not this year, or maybe not even next.

Global box office rose 30.5% in 2023; still down on pre-pandemic levels

Takings were still 15% behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years, according to Gower Street Analytics estimates.

www.screendaily.com

Global box office forecast predicted to drop 5% in 2024 to $31.5bn

Gower Street Analytics predicts the first annual downturn since the pandemic.

www.screendaily.com

As has been discussed in this thread and others overall ticket sales have been on a downward trend since the early 2000s, especially here in the US. So I don't see that changing now just because there has been some rebound post-pandemic that is still down under pre-pandemic levels.

S&P did a recent survey that found here in the US that only 15% of respondents go to the movies at least once a month. Whereas 42% only go infrequently and 43% not going at all.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/global-cinema-attendance-is-rebounding-but-not-back-to-historic-levels

That is a huge percentage of people not going at all or not going a lot. And again I don't see that changing anytime soon if ever. Because if you dive down further into it 52% of those people saying they aren't going because its too expensive, and we know that ain't changing. So just like everything in life, once it costs too much in the eyes of the consumer they do it less or not at all and find alternatives such as waiting for streaming.

With all that said I don't think theatrical is going away completely, never have said that. As the industry continues to change and find equilibrium with all its distribution models I think theatrical will still have a place. I just think it'll have less of an impact financially over the next 100 years than it had in the previous 100 years.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Just saw Wish on D+

Why did they hate this one again?

I thought it was a fresh take, not the same old Princess looking for a Prince or whatever.

Thought the goat would be funnier based on the trailer, but was ok.

Little callbacks were cool, fitting for the anniversary.

 

[DKampy]

Just saw Wish on D+

Why did they hate this one again?

I thought it was a fresh take, not the same old Princess looking for a Prince or whatever.

Thought the goat would be funnier based on the trailer, but was ok.

Little callbacks were cool, fitting for the anniversary.

Because it is on trend by a certain group in this country to hate on Disney… most of the hate you see come from people who did not watch the film

 

[Miss Rori]

It's rather obvious to me that the whole Moana 2 thing - especially given when it was announced - is just Disney desperate to 1) save face after the catastrophe of Wish and 2) try and cut Universal's Wicked Part One off at the pass. Until Moana 2 was announced Disney had nothing pencilled in for the Thanksgiving slot, which for many years was one of their blue-chip release windows. They haven't had a blockbuster in that season since the pre-pandemic Frozen II and especially after Wonka did so well last Christmas they don't want to see another live-action family musical from a different studio break out, so they're hoping the people who might turn out for Wicked will check out a Moana sequel instead.

 

[DKampy]

At 86% on Rotten Tomatoes The First Omen is one of the better reviewed horror films this year

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We just came off a once-in-a-century respiratory pandemic that shuttered cinemas for a long time and made the world wary of crowds. This came at a moment when streaming was already fairly well established as an alternate method of consuming media. The studios were very ready to move on from the cinema model and took steps to do so. It is very hard to imagine a confluence of events more perfectly designed to kill cinemas.

Yet Cinemas survived and are rebounding. It’s rare we get such clear evidence of the resilience of a cultural institution.

People like going to movies. They like watching movies in groups. They like watching movies on the big screen. That’s why cinemas have survived the Paramount decrees, TV, suburbanization, home video, cable, and every other challenge. Just as importantly, theatrical release serves a vital role for the studios, marking films as legitimate in a way that sending them direct to streaming doesn’t, even with a big PR campaign. We’ve known this for decades, but the last few years have vividly reinforced it.

Dude…the major theater chains have been predicted for bankruptcy for 10+ years

It has nothing to do with the bug. That may only hasten it.

The current model won’t work over the long haul.

Just like it doesn’t matter that MCU was huge 7 years ago…cause it’s crap now…
Waxing nostalgically over theaters is gonna come empty as well.

They need a backup plan.

And Disney is doing them no favors…making garbage that is drawing no masses.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Because it is on trend by a certain group in this country to hate on Disney… most of the hate you see come from people who did not watch the film

I would agree with that, except it was also ignored at the Oscars and other award shows.

I don't think it was as good as Coco or Ratatouille, but I don't see it as worse than Encanto. Then again, as I like to acknowledge, I'm probably not the target market. I'd find it hard to believe kids wouldn't like the whole magic star storyline.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Dude…the major theater chains have been predicted for bankruptcy for 10+ years

It has nothing to do with the bug. That may only hasten it.

The current model won’t work over the long haul.

Just like it doesn’t matter that MCU was huge 7 years ago…cause it’s crap now…
Waxing nostalgically over theaters is gonna come empty as well.

They need a backup plan.

And Disney is doing them no favors…making garbage that is drawing no masses.

Dating in 2038:

"Why don't you stay at your place, I'll stay at mine, we'll rent the new Frozen 8 movie on Simulcast PPV, order food from two different places, and nobody has to get dressed or wash their hair?"

 

[Casper Gutman]

Dude…the major theater chains have been predicted for bankruptcy for 10+ years

It has nothing to do with the bug. That may only hasten it.

The current model won’t work over the long haul.

Just like it doesn’t matter that MCU was huge 7 years ago…cause it’s crap now…
Waxing nostalgically over theaters is gonna come empty as well.

They need a backup plan.

And Disney is doing them no favors…making garbage that is drawing no masses.

Yes, people have been predicting cinemas would collapse… forever. They’d collapse because of TV, because of suburbanization, because of home video… Now they’re so doomed even a pandemic that forced them to close and the studios going all in on streaming didn’t kill them. People who learn anything from the past might say that maybe they were wrong about cinemas.

You’re doing the nonsense with the “seven years” thing again. The MCU was thriving in 2022. This has been demonstrated to you over and over.

You don’t read posts. You aren’t interested in actual discussion. You just want to hear yourself rant. So go ahead and do so.