Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

My post was made before second weekend results were official, but it is difficult to tell as Frozen Empire is still in its first three weeks of release and there are Rated R films as the two major releases this weekend with other films that are varying in interest.
I think people still don't define terms of bomb, flop or disappointment.

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire will likely make dollars by the time it leaves the box office, but probably not much.

Internationally, it will be difficult to say as well. Ghostbusters is not allowed to release in China, as it deals with the supernatural afterlife. Too early to tell how it will do worldwide elsewhere as it keeps playing. Let's revisit in a month or so and see. what the 40 year old supernatural comedy fourth installment that was critically panned before relase(with one bad branding spin off in 2016) does in an unsure box office market. Not a smash hit financially likely by any stretch of imagination predicting. By all accounts of logic with the last year, it should be bombing, yet already passed Haunted Mansion and Wish for example of scale and scope with a much smaller budget than those had in both production and marketing.

However, the point remains of the box office of this year is up per release of the box office of last year.

It was an incredible March.

We also don't know the Pinewood incentives;-) Which by fact is one of the most

Part of the issue with Frozen Empire is Godzilla took the wind out of it’s sail… it should of opened in February when there was no competition…I don’t understand why studios always want to put their big movies on top of one another as I think they end up cannibalizing each other more often than not… sure there was Barbenheimer, but I think that is rare… and on their surface they were each catering to 2 different demographics

 

[Disney Irish]

This article could have digital video and home video, and cable tv at one time replacing the streaming aspect and get a similar result.

From your link, this is particularly troubling and bad research presentation :

a) Theaters vs. Streaming: The rise of streaming services has led to a decline in theater attendance. According to the Motion Picture Association, global theater attendance dropped by 4% in 2021, partly due to the availability of films on streaming platforms. The convenience and affordability of streaming services have attracted viewers to opt for at-home entertainment.

Theaters were still closed all over the world in a large scale global event.

Streaming services have been around longer than 2021. There have been a few newcomers since 2019.

And the correlation of 2020 being the year before that and 2021 recovering pandemic seems far more of a reason for the 4 percent than the streaming service impact would be. It seems rather silly that this even has to be said. Not only was there sitll a pandemic active in waves globally, as the numbers reference global, where the impact was often greater than the US, but less productions were occuring for theatrical release. For Studios, it was their ONLY option to make money since theaters were not allowed to open in many parts of the world.

As we have discussed, theatrical attendance has risen since then, with more streaming media than ever, not shrunk.

It has been easier to watch entertainment from home for a long time. I don't think there is any evidence showing this is a likely trajectory.

I appreciate your change of heart in wanting to discuss it though.

I haven't changed, as I still disagree with you and believe its best to agree to disagree. You can't discount the impact that the pandemic had for switching consumer habits to be more inclined to watch movies at home. And it is far easier to get access to movies now than it was during the video days, especially for first run movies.

So we just aren't going to see eye-to-eye on this. I think in the long term the trend will be clear and you'll end up realizing how much of an impact streaming has had and will have on the theatrical box office.

 

[celluloid]

I haven't changed, as I still disagree with you and believe its best to agree to disagree. You can't discount the impact that the pandemic had for switching consumer habits to be more inclined to watch movies at home. And it is far easier to get access to movies now than it was during the video days, especially for first run movies.

So we just aren't going to see eye-to-eye on this. I think in the long term the trend will be clear and you'll end up realizing how much of an impact streaming has had and will have on the theatrical box office.

I don't discou t the impact pandemic had, as it was majority of that 4 percent drop that web page talks about
It is however in 2023 and 2024 no longer the case.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't discou t the impact pandemic had, as it was majority of that 4 percent drop that web page talks about
It is however in 2023 and 2024 no longer the case.

Habits are hard to break in consumers once they are set.

Lets just end this and stop trying to belabor the point, we just aren't going to agree on this.

 

[celluloid]

Part of the issue with Frozen Empire is Godzilla took the wind out of it’s sail… it should of opened in February when there was no competition…I don’t understand why studios always want to put their big movies on top of one another as I think they end up cannibalizing each other more often than not… sure there was Barbenheimer, but I think that is rare… and on their surface they were each catering to 2 different demographics

It is a toss up there. It has Easter and spring break this way. It did move up from it's original release date and had pick up shoots in Atlanta pare last year. It is also not a big return to the franchise like Afterlife was and arguably from critical not as good.
The Marvels, Wish and others other films have shown that even no comparative competition does not guarantee larger theater goers.

I think Ghostbusters will hold in the top five or so for awhile with these rated R Films coming out and some non appealing others
A terrible panned (critically) fourth installment is doing better than many larger budget films.
For reference. It is about to surpass The Marvels domestically(prob by the weekend)

 

[celluloid]

Habits are hard to break in consumers once they are set.

Lets just end this and stop trying to belabor the point, we just aren't going to agree on this.

More than habit. Genetic coding. People experiencing stories as a group is drastically genetically coded in human kind to be the way stories are preferred by most.
It's a discussion board. Don't quote.me if you don't want to?
There were countries that had no cinema theaters in many towns as a consumer habit, and they have done well instantly after decades and generations of them having only TV. So that does not check out here.

 

[Disney Irish]

More than habit. Genetic coding. People experiencing stories as a group is drastically genetically codes in human kind.
It's a discussion board. Don't quote.me if you don't want to?
There were countries that had no cinema theaters in many towns as a consumer habit, and they have done well instantly after decades and generations of them having TV. So that does not check out here.

And its fine if you think theatrical is going to continue unchanged as the primary source. I, as well as others, think that it is changing and will continue to change in the years to come, especially domestically here in the US.

 

[celluloid]

And its fine if you think theatrical is going to continue unchanged as the primary source. I, as well as others, think that it is changing and will continue to change in the years to come, especially domestically here in the US.

What about streaming struggling and theater attendance rising makes you think this?

 

[Disney Irish]

What about streaming struggling and theater attendance rising makes you think this?

We've been over this multiple times in various threads. We're not covering new territory here. We just see things different. Time will be the determining factor here, so we'll see what happens.

 

[celluloid]

We've been over this multiple times in various threads. We're not covering new territory here. We just see things different. Time will be the determining factor here, so we'll see what happens.

You said it was debatable. Not really a debate to just say you think so and we will see. No debate was presented.

 

[Disney Irish]

You said it was debatable. Not really a debate to just say you think so and we will see. No debate was presented.

I said it was debatable on this part of your post, and we did debate a bit -

Enough for movie theaters to be around in our lifetimes and beyond as a major source of Hollywood income.

We don't know what the future will bring. So we cannot say with any certainty that theaters will indeed be the major source for income of Hollywood in that future. We've debated this many times over in this thread and others and we're not really changing each others opinions here. There is not going to be a finality to this debate. Maybe things turn out ok and in 50 years theaters with floating seats will be around as the major source of income for Hollywood, or maybe the whole thing will have imploded and all theaters are gone due to movies being beamed via chips directly in our brains. I'll be almost on the other side of 100 at that point, so maybe I'll still be around to find out.

So I'm just saying instead of going round and round again for 10 pages lets just see what happens. And I'm happy to revisit it from time-to-time for a few posts as new data come out, such as yearly totals.

 

[celluloid]

I said it was debatable on this part of your post, and we did debate a bit -



We don't know what the future will bring. So we cannot say with any certainty that theaters will indeed be the major source for income of Hollywood in that future. We've debated this many times over in this thread and others and we're not really changing each others opinions here. There is not going to be a finality to this debate. Maybe things turn out ok and in 50 years theaters with floating seats will be around as the major source of income for Hollywood, or maybe the whole thing will have imploded and all theaters are gone due to movies being beamed via chips directly in our brains. I'll be almost on the other side of 100 at that point, so maybe I'll still be around to find out.

So I'm just saying instead of going round and round again for 10 pages lets just see what happens. And I'm happy to revisit it from time-to-time for a few posts as new data come out, such as yearly totals.

All all we can go by now then is that theater attendance has been on an increase per release since 2021.

And Disney, not even close to ready to stick to streaming as a primary income when they took a Disney Plus series and are rushing to give it a theatrical release this year.

Does not look like much change for your five to ten year range of theaters no longer being majority income makers for movies.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well all we can go by now then is that theater attendance has been on an increase per release since 2021.

And that can all change this year or next, or the one after that. Just because it has increased from pandemic lows doesn't mean it will continue to increase forever.

And Disney, not even close to ready to stick to streaming as a primary income when they took a Disney Plus series and are rushing to give it a theatrical release this year.

In the interim I do agree that studios will try to find a happy balance between streaming and theatrical by moving releases back and forth between each. How that will affect the long term, we don't really know yet. It may end up being a self fulfilling prophesy that ends up causing lower box office overall, leading to more streaming releases, etc. Only time will tell.

 

[brideck]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

 

[DKampy]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

I think it will come to how well the film is received…I have not seen any reviews yet

 

[brideck]

I think it will come to how well the film is received…I have not seen any reviews yet

It looks like it premiered at Beyond Fest (https://twitter.com/BeyondFest) yesterday.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Some early numbers from Deadline today on The First Omen. [Source: https://deadline.com/2024/04/godzil...the-first-omen-box-office-preview-1235874366/]

Projected Opening: $12m-$15m
Screens: 3300
Budget: $30m-$35m

That would put it well below last year's Exorcist revival re: domestic, maybe on target for $30m-$35m overall. We'll have to see how it plays overseas, too. The Pope's Exorcist last year did 3x there.

I think I’ve only seen one ad one time.

 

[TalkingHead]

All all we can go by now then is that theater attendance has been on an increase per release since 2021.

And Disney, not even close to ready to stick to streaming as a primary income when they took a Disney Plus series and are rushing to give it a theatrical release this year.

You could argue the opposite — they’re throwing gussied-up tv content into theaters, which suggests a lack of commitment to theatrical-grade product.

AMC’s financials are very bad. Alamo is selling a good portion of their Drafthouse locations. Theatrical has lost a lot of ground in the last two decades. The writing is on the wall. The business can’t survive on subscription services, discount Tuesdays, and getting people to turn out for three tentpoles a year.

 

[celluloid]

You could argue the opposite — they’re throwing gussied-up tv content into theaters, which suggests a lack of commitment to theatrical-grade product.

AMC’s financials are very bad. Alamo is selling a good portion of their Drafthouse locations. Theatrical has lost a lot of ground in the last two decades. The writing is on the wall. The business can’t survive on subscription services, discount Tuesdays, and getting people to turn out for three tentpoles a year.

Millions more in advertising and work to get it to theaters.

It is not just guised up for free. They want that theater money for Moana 2.

If they thought so many would watch it on DIsney Plus could make more money without doing it, they would.
Their brand for that studio certainly needs the help. I do agree that it is going to be hard to get that a theatrical grade product.

But if you say something is not committed to a theatrical grade product, don't you admit that theatrical releases is something people are going to spend more money on than what they are willing to watch at home because it will make more money in theaters first? I think that reinforces the argument.

Edited to be more pertinent.

 

[TalkingHead]

Millions more in advertising and work to get it to theaters.

It is not just guised up for free. They want that theater money for Moana 2.

If they thought so many would watch it on DIsney Plus could make more money without doing it, they would.
Their brand for that studio certainly needs the help. I do agree that it is going to be hard to get that a theatrical grade product.

But if you say something is not committed to a theatrical grade product, don't you admit that theatrical releases is something people are going to spend more money on than what they are willing to watch at home because it will make more money in theaters first? I think that reinforces the argument.

Edited to be more pertinent.

Sorta can’t say without knowing the quality of Moana 2. Certainly seems like they’re gambling that the first movie’s popularity will translate to box office success, and there’s a recognition that shouldn’t be squandered on streaming. But if it feels like a cobbled-together cash grab, that’s going to further the narrative that Disney’s creatively lost its way.