Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyHead123]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety

Not sure who I can link to, but if you Google around a bit the story is easy to find. Elio had a massive overhaul mid movie which probably accounts for a lot of the budget. Not sure what was going on with the original but it looks like they decided to seriously rework it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

Thanks for reposting last month's news!

How does a parks blog get "several sources" (the plural!) about the budget of a Disney studio film? Can they not resist click-bait?

Anyhoo, we've been through this before. Film gets reworked, so, it costs more. Trying to 'fix' a movie is a sign that they're holding it to high standards and aren't just churning out slop. Pixar includes the cost of running the studio in it's film budgets, so, Pixar's budgets are significantly more than other studios. Not profiting by a $300M movie is cheaper than scrapping a $200M mess.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

View attachment 865022

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

Meh…everyone knows that Disney has slashed all budgets now and that they make trillions of Palmolive ads on D+ forever…

FAKE NEWS!

 

[Ghost93]

I was just looking up AMC showtimes and Elio apparently releases THIS WEEK!?! I go to the theaters every single week and while I've seen an Elio trailer a couple of times, I feel the movie isn't on the general radar for most people. I've heard little buzz or discussion about the movie, which isn't a good sign for its financial prospects.

I hope the movie is good and if it's good I want it to do well. But I feel in the children/family movie space, Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon are completely stealing Elio's Thunder.

Maybe this should have come out in August? Because June is too overstuffed, and I feel the three big releases in July — Jurassic World, Superman Legacy and Fantastic Four — would also overshadow the film.

 

[TP2000]

Not sure who I can link to, but if you Google around a bit the story is easy to find. Elio had a massive overhaul mid movie which probably accounts for a lot of the budget. Not sure what was going on with the original but it looks like they decided to seriously rework it.

Ah, okay. If they reworked it "mid movie", I'm thinking that was probably around 2023 during the Strange World and Lightyear PR disasters (which ironically paled in comparison to the Snow White PR disaster of '24), and they had to de-wokify Elio quite a bit. '

Or is there some other reason why a summer children's movie from Pixar would need massive rework and new money?

Thanks for reposting last month's news!

It was news to me, as we had not discussed Elio's budget number in this thread. It had never come up here before.

Even if it was last month's news in another thread, I'm skeptical of the claim and want a better source for it. See below...

Anyhoo, we've been through this before. Film gets reworked, so, it costs more. Trying to 'fix' a movie is a sign that they're holding it to high standards and aren't just churning out slop.

You'd think that after doing these movies for 30 years, Pixar would have a strong foundation beneath their high standards and already know how to begin a $200 Million children's summer movie without worrying it will be slop.

Surely Pixar doesn't begin the storyboarding process with a Post-It note on the wall that says "FYI - This One Is Slop".

Still, I'd love to see a solid report on Elio's budget from a trusted industry source like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. I've never heard of that blog that came up first on my Google search, so I'm waiting to hear it from a more trusted source. Maybe the rework on Elio only cost them an extra $50 Million, and the budget is a "mere" $250 Million?

That will be something I'll be watching for over this upcoming week, before it launches this weekend.

 

[TP2000]

I was just looking up AMC showtimes and Elio apparently releases THIS WEEK!?! I go to the theaters every single week and while I've seen an Elio trailer a couple of times, I feel the movie isn't on the general radar for most people. I've heard little buzz or discussion about the movie, which isn't a good sign for its financial prospects.

I hope the movie is good and if it's good I want it to do well. But I feel in the children/family movie space, Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon are completely stealing Elio's Thunder.

Maybe this should have come out in August? Because June is too overstuffed, and I feel the three big releases in July — Jurassic World, Superman Legacy and Fantastic Four — would also overshadow the film.

I've been getting Elio commercials on YouTube repeatedly for several weeks now. Some of them are the usual short commercials, and some are longer at 60 seconds. I've watched several of them in their entirety, and I'm just not sensing this will be a big hit.

Has Pixar ever released a mega-budget summer blockbuster in August? Isn't that sort of an admission that it's not a big tentpole movie, and might even be "slop"? August seems to be the month that $80 Million throwaways from minor studios are released in, not $200+ Million tentpoles from the likes of Disney and Pixar.

I typed that and then had to Google.... and Pixar has only released their feature films in either May/June or November (Thanksgiving weekends). The sole exception seems to be The Incredibles, that was released October 24th, 2004 for some reason. And the mess of Covid that scrambled the calendar entirely in 2020-2021.

But consistently since 1995, Pixar only releases feature films in May/June or November. Never August.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Ah, okay. If they reworked it "mid movie", I'm thinking that was probably around 2023 during the Strange World and Lightyear PR disasters (which ironically paled in comparison to the Snow White PR disaster of '24), and they had to de-wokify Elio quite a bit. '

Or is there some other reason why a summer children's movie from Pixar would need massive rework and new money?

Hard to say as Disney is good at playing their cards close to their chest, but there were mentions of the original being too “dark”, and references to Earth being “on trial” for something in the original trailer. The new trailers plays up a more traditional “plucky unlikely hero against a big baddie” narrative.

 

[Ghost93]

But consistently since 1995, Pixar only releases feature films in May/June or November. Never August.

I feel the Pixar needs to restrengthen its brand as a draw to theaters for audiences, and to do so it needs to do whatever it can to ensure a great box office run for Elio. I still think June is a bad release date for a movie most people are not sold on. If the reviews are anything less than stellar, I think Elio is going to flop. Frankly, even if the reviews are perfect, I still think there's a decent chance it may flop.

In the 2010s, we got two original Pixar movies that were great and performed great at the box office — Inside Out and Coco. We also got two original movies that were mediocre — Brave and the Good Dinosaur. Brave did okay at the box office, but the Good Dinosaur was a disappointment. The studio at this point had lost its reputation for every movie coming out being an instant classic like it did during its incredible 1995-2009 run.

But the 2010s were largely defined by Pixar being uncreative and following Bob Iger's orders to exploit already-proven IP>

The 2010s had a lot of box offices successes for Pixar, but they were mostly due to being sequels or prequels to existing IP — Monsters University, Cars 3, Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, Toy Story 4. While none of these movies were really bad, none of them matched the eristics heights of Pixar's movies from 1995-2009.

Once Pixar FINALLY started returning to making original movies, it got slapped in the face by COVID-19.

I thought Soul, Luca and Turning Red were all great, but they didn't have the cultural impact of other Pixar movies due to them being released straight to Disney Plus. This release strategy trained people to no longer view Pixar movies as must-see theatrical events, but Direct-to-Video babysitters for the children. And despite these movies being artistically great, I think they were a little less broad appeal than Pixar's earlier movies, with Soul feeling very aimed at adults, Turning Red specifically targeting pre-teen/early teen girls and Luca skewing a bit younger in its demographic.

Pixar's big return to theaters was the underwhelming Lightyear (which I think is better than its reputation, but was still a woeful miscalculation in assessing what people like about Buzz Lightyear and the Toy Story brand).

Elemental and Inside Out 2 were pretty well received, but I think it will take at least 2-3 more ORIGINAL creative and commercial hits in a row to restore Pixar's status as must-see high quality entertainment for all.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Very unrelated, but I am hopeful people will eventually realize what a talent Rachel Zegler is.

She is getting stunning reviews already for Evita in London.

 

[Disney Irish]

Very unrelated, but I am hopeful people will eventually realize what a talent Rachel Zegler is.

She is getting stunning reviews already for Evita in London.

I think given enough separation from Snow she'll be recognized even by those that hated on her.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I've been getting Elio commercials on YouTube repeatedly for several weeks now. Some of them are the usual short commercials, and some are longer at 60 seconds. I've watched several of them in their entirety, and I'm just not sensing this will be a big hit.

Has Pixar ever released a mega-budget summer blockbuster in August? Isn't that sort of an admission that it's not a big tentpole movie, and might even be "slop"? August seems to be the month that $80 Million throwaways from minor studios are released in, not $200+ Million tentpoles from the likes of Disney and Pixar.

I typed that and then had to Google.... and Pixar has only released their feature films in either May/June or November (Thanksgiving weekends). The sole exception seems to be The Incredibles, that was released October 24th, 2004 for some reason. And the mess of Covid that scrambled the calendar entirely in 2020-2021.

But consistently since 1995, Pixar only releases feature films in May/June or November. Never August.

The internet barely existed in 1995…

Might be changing times, Bob

 

[Miss Rori]

Generally, August is when studios release either stuff they need to get off the table but are too expensive to just dump in January/February or September, or titles that they're not absolutely sure will be blockbusters but are good enough to become word-of-mouth hits. (The Sixth Sense was an August release, ditto the first Guardians of the Galaxy.) Disney might have had something in releasing Elio in early August, when all the other kid-friendly blockbusters are worn out, if not for having already staked out Freakier Friday for the "word-of-mouth" slot.

As for Elio's massive retool ostensibly being in the name of high quality, that didn't help either Captain America - Brave New World or the Snow White remake's prospects, or Wish before that. If anything these days massive retools on Disney projects tend to be throwing out the baby and keeping the bathwater.

The real red flag regarding Elio is that Disney still hasn't lifted the professional review embargo as of Monday night, and I can't remember the last time they waited this long to do that for a Pixar movie. If this movie was going to get glowing reviews, they would have capitalized on them by now. (I suspect they're still smarting over lifting the review embargo for Wish the Friday before it opened.)

 

[DKampy]

Very unrelated, but I am hopeful people will eventually realize what a talent Rachel Zegler is.

She is getting stunning reviews already for Evita in London.

Zegler is a phenomenal talent…. She always gets great reviews…even when they find flaws with a work she is in… Rachel is never the issue… but a highlight…. I am sure she will have a long career if she wants it…. The Rachel Zegler’s career is over narrative is greatly exaggerated and mostly just online discourse

 

[TalkingHead]

I can’t believe they moved Elio’s release so many times only to decide a crowded June was the right time. Not exactly setting it up for box office success.

 

[DKampy]

The real red flag regarding Elio is that Disney still hasn't lifted the professional review embargo as of Monday night, and I can't remember the last time they waited this long to do that for a Pixar movie. If this movie was going to get glowing reviews, they would have capitalized on them by now. (I suspect they're still smarting over lifting the review embargo for Wish the Friday before it opened.)

that no longer seems to be the case anymore unless the film premiered at a festival or starts out limited before wide…. These days most films may have an early social embargo lifted…. But the full reviews are not allowed till Wednesday…. How to Train Your Dragon reviews waited till then…. None of the other films released this Friday has reviews yet including 28 years later…. To bring it back to Disney both L&S and Thunderbolts reviews waited till the Wednesday before release

 

[Ghost93]

that no longer seems to be the case anymore unless the film premiered at a festival or starts out limited before wide…. These days most films may have an early social embargo lifted…. But the full reviews are not allowed till Wednesday…. How to Train Your Dragon reviews waited till then…. None of the other films released this Friday has reviews yet including 28 years later…. To bring it back to Disney both L&S and Thunderbolts reviews waited till the Wednesday before release

And social media embargoes can't be trusted since they often consist of influencers or critics who want to keep their access. Social media reactions almost always lean positive.

 

[DKampy]

And social media embargoes can't be trusted since they often consist of influencers or critics who want to keep their access. Social media reactions almost always lean positive.

I don’t know how true this is…. But I heard a rumor that Lionsgate specifically told critics could only leave positive comments after Ballerina’s social media embargo lifted

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t know how true this is…. But I heard a rumor that Lionsgate specifically told critics could only leave positive comments after Ballerina’s social media embargo lifted

It happened -

Lionsgate’s Staggered ‘Ballerina’ Embargo For “Enthusiastic” & “Critical Sentiment” Irks Reviewers

Lionsgate's Staggered 'Ballerina' Embargoes For "Enthusiastic" & "Critical Sentiment" Irks Reviewers

deadline.com

 

[TP2000]

Very unrelated, but I am hopeful people will eventually realize what a talent Rachel Zegler is.

She is getting stunning reviews already for Evita in London.

As part of her debut on the London stage, has she gone on TikTok to bad mouth the Argentine government yet?

That could help.

 

[TP2000]

Target Run!

I had to make a Target Run unexpectedly this evening, and I decided to make a night of it with dinner at Blaze Pizza and dessert at Crumbl before I went on Target, like the Monday night hellion that I am. And after a successful romp through the cleaning aisle and 5 minutes of smelling candles for no good reason I found...

Elio practically non-existent in the Toy Department.

The Boys aisles had absolutely no Elio anything. The How To Train Your Dragon section was obliterated, with hardily anything left. The endcaps in the Boys aisles featured Jurassic Park and Superman. Not a single toy for Elio was spotted in the Boys aisles or the Unisex games/Lego aisles. Anything pink and/or Barbie reigned supreme in the Girls aisles, as she should.

So I gave up, thinking "Seriously Emeryville, what did you spend all that money on???"

Yet as I was walking to the Pet aisle to buy a box of Milkbones to keep all the neighbor's dogs on my good side, I spotted him! There was an Elio presence in Target! In the children's section of the Book department, nestled beside a stack of Rachel Zegler's Snow White books slapped with 20% Off! stickers and just above a stack of books teaching little girls how to be more like Taylor Swift if they want to be happy, sat two (2!) copies of an Elio book for children just learning to read. Elio exists within the vaunted Target/Disney Merchandising Universe!

So what did I learn on Monday night? Crumbl's peanut butter cup skillet cookie this week is darn good, and Elio doesn't look like it's going anywhere at the box office anytime soon. So a hit and a miss tonight.