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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Shouldn't you be withholding judgement until you see how many boys with an eye patch show up at your door on Halloween?

That's a HUGE part of my tracking system. We've got a man staring at an entire panel of blinky lights just for Halloween.

But after last night's Target run, something tells me I won't be seeing any eye patches four and a half months from now. 🧐
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
ShopDisney.com only has one plastic figure playset and three T-shirts on offer for Elio. Either Disney Corporate knew they had a stinker that wasn't worth merchandising with this movie, or they are still smarting over the disastrous performance of the Lightyear and Wish merchandise. What a shame.

Wouldn't you love to know how they decide how many toys to design and produce for the marketplace?

The lag time on designing them, getting them past legal and safety standards, some Chinese slave factory getting the order to produce, and then the toys and t-shirts actually showing up in a Target in Utah must be at least six months. A year?

So why didn't they do any toys at all for Elio? And if not, at what point in its production did they realize and say "Oh, darnit, this one won't sell anything." and forget about merchandise sales in the parks and big box stores?

Pixar sold over $10 Billion in boys toys and t-shirts for their movie Cars. It was that huge merchandise sales that convinced Burbank to greenlight $600 Million (in 2008 dollars, over a Billion today!) to build the fabulous Cars Land in DCA. Obviously not every movie can be a Cars for merchandise, but almost no merch at all doesn't make sense for Pixar.

No one can convince me they purposely greenlight a mega-budget movie in Emeryville and decide early on "Yeah, let's give up on merchandise sales for this one, it won't sell anything." So at what point in Elio's production cycle did they realize there was no reason to send out production orders for America's toy aisles???? 🤔
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Has anyone ever thought that maybe, just maybe, that our highly unscientific and inaccurate polling of a few store shelves and a cursory look at the Disney Store website just doesn't yield the reality of potential merch sales about a particular movie? Now maybe Disney dropped the ball for this movie, or maybe they purposely didn't ship to Target's in Utah, or maybe things just aren't as they seem and merch is being directed to the Parks instead or other places they are being targeting for specific merch sales.


 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
I just purchased on online Elio movie soundtrack album on vinyl. Can't wait for it to arrive!!!

1750185368215.jpeg
 

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Has anyone ever thought that maybe, just maybe, that our highly unscientific and inaccurate polling of a few store shelves and a cursory look at the Disney Store website just doesn't yield the reality of potential merch sales about a particular movie? Now maybe Disney dropped the ball for this movie, or maybe they purposely didn't ship to Target's in Utah, or maybe things just aren't as they seem and merch is being directed to the Parks instead or other places they are being targeting for specific merch sales.



Eh, I'd say the Disney shop having 3 tshirts, a D23 cover, and one figure set is weird. It also would seem strange to just direct merch to the parks for a movie coming out. I will say, Disney has been burned by going big on merch for movies that failed as has been pointed out, but they also have messed up with the lack of merch for giant hits (Frozen is the most high profile example), so I won't read a ton into it.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Eh, I'd say the Disney shop having 3 tshirts, a D23 cover, and one figure set is weird. It also would seem strange to just direct merch to the parks for a movie coming out. I will say, Disney has been burned by going big on merch for movies that failed as has been pointed out, but they also have messed up with the lack of merch for giant hits (Frozen is the most high profile example), so I won't read a ton into it.
I agree, we shouldn't read a ton into it. But I'm not the one who famously makes Target runs to go look for the latest Disney movie merch and report back on it here. 🤷‍♂️
 

DisneyHead123

Well-Known Member
Wouldn't you love to know how they decide how many toys to design and produce for the marketplace?

The lag time on designing them, getting them past legal and safety standards, some Chinese slave factory getting the order to produce, and then the toys and t-shirts actually showing up in a Target in Utah must be at least six months. A year?

So why didn't they do any toys at all for Elio? And if not, at what point in its production did they realize and say "Oh, darnit, this one won't sell anything." and forget about merchandise sales in the parks and big box stores?

Pixar sold over $10 Billion in boys toys and t-shirts for their movie Cars. It was that huge merchandise sales that convinced Burbank to greenlight $600 Million (in 2008 dollars, over a Billion today!) to build the fabulous Cars Land in DCA. Obviously not every movie can be a Cars for merchandise, but almost no merch at all doesn't make sense for Pixar.

No one can convince me they purposely greenlight a mega-budget movie in Emeryville and decide early on "Yeah, let's give up on merchandise sales for this one, it won't sell anything." So at what point in Elio's production cycle did they realize there was no reason to send out production orders for America's toy aisles???? 🤔

I think the toy production has to be largely about current confidence and vibes, right? If I remember correctly there was a bit of a hullabaloo because Frozen was an unexpected smash hit with no merch ready to go, while Wish was given star treatment in every department (merch, upcoming park festivals, etc.) and was a surprise... er... not hit.

Nothing about Elio looks particularly bad to me (I haven't seen it, so I can't say it's good either, but nothing looks horrible.) It will no doubt skip over anything that could remotely be considered political and be an all around happy, everything-works-out-in-an-uncomplicated-manner summer popcorn flick. So my guess is more a crisis of confidence - it's not a sequel, it's a sci-fi movie which has traditionally been a really tricky area for Disney / Pixar, and the Disney / Pixar box office has been vacillating wildly between huge hits and huge... not hits... recently.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I agree, we shouldn't read a ton into it. But I'm not the one who famously makes Target runs to go look for the latest Disney movie merch and report back on it here. 🤷‍♂️

In my deep defense, I also got a Scrub Daddy (ahem), a refill bottle of that shower glass spray I like so much, and a jumbo box of Purina Milkbones. All while riding out my Crumbl cookie sugar high. It was a rather good Target Run. :cool:
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
The commercial expectations for Elio are not high. The best we can hope for is a run similar to Elemental if it gets good reviews/WOM. Not sure why some are wishcasting it flops though. Like just ignore it if it doesn't interest you?

I'd ignore it if it was from Warner Bros. or Universal. But if we ignore Pixar mega-budget summer tentpoles, and any other Disney mega-budget movies from their flagship studios, then this thread doesn't need to exist. :(

Instead, I think we should keep the thread going by talking about Disney At The Box Office, and the movies Disney releases.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I think the toy production has to be largely about current confidence and vibes, right?... So my guess is more a crisis of confidence - it's not a sequel, it's a sci-fi movie which has traditionally been a really tricky area for Disney / Pixar, and the Disney / Pixar box office has been vacillating wildly between huge hits and huge... not hits... recently.

I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target. 🤔

Not That Bad.jpg
 

DisneyHead123

Well-Known Member
I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target. 🤔

View attachment 865407

My (totally unfounded) guess is that the anxiety is coming from the box office performance of both Disney and Pixar, as I assume Disney is responsible for toy production. Even though Pixar is separate from the Disney studios, I think all recent movies (Disney and Pixar) would influence their thinking when contemplating the likelihood of something being a hit.

Side note - now that I think of it, Lilo and Stitch and Inside Out 2 were pretty light on children’s merchandise too.
 

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
The commercial expectations for Elio are not high. The best we can hope for is a run similar to Elemental if it gets good reviews/WOM. Not sure why some are wishcasting it flops though. Like just ignore it if it doesn't interest you?
Yeah, I'm kind of puzzled about a certain amount of glee around predicting Elio's failure.

No-one has seen it and thus knows if it's good or bad (though the reviews are now coming out and trending positive), and I thought we all wanted more original films and less franchises. If it flops, it's another point in favour of Toy Story sequels and live action remakes into eternity.

All I can think is that it is part of a broader desire to see Disney fail, perhaps with the idea it will lead to Iger being ejected from his position and replaced by someone more like Mike Lindell.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I think you're on to something!

When discussing Pixar's track record at the box office the past decade, I think it would be fair to ignore the four Covid era movies that basically had no theatrical run. This likely benefits Pixar, as my gut tells me Turning Red would have been a giant bomb, and the others (Onward, Soul, Luca) wouldn't have done very well in a normal box office run.

There may be some internal numbers that reflect that for Pixar though, so they likely now understand they would have lost big money on at least a couple of those had Covid not prevented them from running normally. Which could feed into their crisis of confidence.

The rest of Pixar's stuff the past decade, has mostly been big Billion dollar hits (inflation adjusted). It's really just the bomb that was Lightyear and the money-losing Elemental that would cause this crisis of confidence.

Still, it's a weird new world when the mega-budget summer tentpole from Pixar has no toys for sale at Target. 🤔

View attachment 865407

Metrics were that Turning Red and Luca were the bigger of the four. Disney still seems to be reacting as if that was the case.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
Well well, we finally have official word on what the ACTUAL budget for Disney/Pixar’s #Elio is thanks to actual reliable trades.

According to Deadline, the film cost $150M to make, not $300M like that lying grifting snake Mr. Jordan Ruimy claimed on World of Reel, and I doubt we should be surprised given Ruimy lied about Captain America: Brave New World had a budget of $380M, when the ACTUAL budget, according to the trades, was $180 million.

Let this be a lesson to all you people who post clickbait and lies from grifters like Jordan Ruimy here on this social media platform again.

Never, and I mean, NEVER post anything like what Jordan Ruimy said here on this platform again unless it’s confirmed by reliable trades like The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, DEADLINE, or The Wrap.

That means you too, @TsWade2.

It’s high time platforms like this went back to a vetting process for when people share info over movies, film budgets, and the truth about them.
 

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