Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[easyrowrdw]

Canada in my case. But yes, everywhere but the US (and Japan) Hulu and FX content have just been in the D+ app under the holding label called Star. You cannot subscribe to Star separately, it just “is” D+ content.

It’s been this way since like 2021, so sort of feels like since the beginning. It’s an inevitability that Hulu as its own service will disappear eventually. The buyout gives the final flag.

I’ll acknowledge I don’t think it’s remotely as good as a streamer if you try and split it.

Ah, Canada. Got it.

That makes sense. We do Hulu cuz we can get it for $1-2/month on Black Friday. I already think D+ is overpriced so I’m not looking forward to paying more when they’re together. I guess we’ll see what pricing is.

Sorry I’ve been continuing the streaming talk in the box office thread!

 

[Phroobar]

How to train your Dragon was pretty awesome. It's a better movie than Lilo & Stitch. They expanded the teenagers backstories a little. Astrid was more like she was in the second movie. This one is just as good as the original but doesn't surpass it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

With all the relatively creative Stitch marketing, I thought a more explicit ad could have been made to imply that Elio is basically Stitch’s fish out of water story in reverse, with the main character going to another world vs. an alien coming to ours. “If you liked L&S…”

Well, they just put out an ad with Stitch watching a preview of Elio, and saying, “Just like Stitch!” and other similar phrases. Ta-da! (Maybe a little late.)

 

[MisterPenguin]

Well, they just put out an ad with Stitch watching a preview of Elio, and saying, “Just like Stitch!” and other similar phrases. Ta-da! (Maybe a little late.)

Are you aware of "react videos" the kids can't get enough of?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Are you aware of "react videos" the kids can't get enough of?

Of course.

 

[Phroobar]

Elio should have had half second cameo or easter egg in L&S.

 

[Disney Irish]

Weekend update -

How to Train your Dragon is looking to have a opening of $75M-$85M with a consensus of ~$82.7M.

‘How To Train Your Dragon’ Still On Course For Franchise Best $82M+ Opening After ‘A’ CinemaScore; ‘Materialists’ Reps A24’s Third Biggest Opening – Saturday Update

Universal's 'How to Train Your Dragon' is opening to $82.5M, the best in the franchise, while A24's 'Materialists' is looking at $11M+.

deadline.com

Solid opening for the franchise, but probably lower than $100M opening many expected after Stitch and Minecraft both hit that mark. So may not be the "Stitch killer" after all, as I've seen some online (not here) make that claim.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Thunderbolts*’ Lost Millions of Dollars Despite Great Reviews. Where Does Marvel Go Next?

Disney's MCU is at an inflection point. With "Thunderbolts*" the latest box office disappointment, will Marvel continue to back riskier stand-alones?

variety.com

I think a good takeaway from this article is what Fandango head said -

“Marvel’s calculus has changed,” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s movie analytics director. “We’re in a new era where not every Marvel movie is going to hit $1 billion.”

This is the expectation reset I've been talking about for a few years now, and the industry is acknowledging it.

Also thought this was a good thing to highlight as it was noted in the article also -

"Marvel is unique because it isn’t as encumbered as rivals by the profits or losses of single films. The company can recoup some costs through Disney+ and other home entertainment markets, to say nothing of the massive revenue streams from merchandising, theme parks and cruises."

So make of that what you will.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Estimate for HTTYD is $83.7 million domestic, $197.8 million globally. Movie had a $150 million budget.

Unadjusted for inflation, it's the highest opening for a HTTYD movie, but less than the $100 million some were forecasting

I find it amusing that AMC Disney Springs is the highest grossing location and not the movie theater at CityWalk

 

[TP2000]

Happy Father's Day gang, to all our Dad's out there in Discussionland! I hope your day is great, and you got the day you deserve! Steaks? Bourbon? Or just the promise to not get a necktie?

I got a funny custom card from my sister this weekend, made with a photo of our Dad's massive 1967 Lincoln Continental that we were both forbidden from touching, let alone driving. Even on Prom nights or big events, we were both relegated to driving my Mom's pokey Volvo until we could get our own cars. Don't touch Dad's Lincoln!

Here's box office for this weekend. Lilo & Stitch fell to second place finally, due to that dragon. It only lost 500ish theaters, which seems to be a very good hold a month into its run. Thunderbolts, on the other hand, is nearly gone from the box office. It won't be a money maker for Marvel at the box office, to say the least.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for June 13, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of June 13, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Miss Rori]

Solid opening for the franchise, but probably lower than $100M opening many expected after Stitch and Minecraft both hit that mark. So may not be the "Stitch killer" after all, as I've seen some online (not here) make that claim.

I'm surprised anybody would have made a claim like that. HTTYD 2.0 was always going to be the potential Elio killer.

Regarding the marketing for Elio going into next weekend, I agree that it hasn't been particularly inspired, but moviegoing kids and their parents/guardians surely have seen the trailers for that movie more than once by now. That the tracking for it still hasn't improved considerably since Lilo & Stitch is alarming.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Elio has to compete directly with HTTYD next week, and we're about to enter the peak of summer movie competition, but I don't think there's any major family title after Elio until Smurfs?

Superman will draw some kids I think, but if Elio opens low it does have time to build interest with younger children.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm surprised anybody would have made a claim like that. HTTYD 2.0 was always going to be the potential Elio killer.

I know that some like to dismiss it or discount it here on this side of the forum, but I think there is still bit of an anti-Disney sentiment out there. Especially when it comes to the Disney vs Dreamworks and Disney vs Uni (Comcast) debates, the latter you can see particularly in the theme park space even here on this site.

So it didn't surprise me at all when I saw it online. Basically the idea is that anything that can potentially drop Disney down a peg they are going to root for and pit against something Disney has released, even if its far fetched.

Regarding the marketing for Elio going into next weekend, I agree that it hasn't been particularly inspired, but moviegoing kids and their parents/guardians surely have seen the trailers for that movie more than once by now. That the tracking for it still hasn't improved considerably since Lilo & Stitch is alarming.

As I didn't mention Elio I don't know who you are agreeing with since I didn't bring up its marketing or comment on whether its was inspiring or not. But as you now brought it up, I find it an interesting concept based on what the trailers are showing me. I like the idea of a kid wanting to explore the unknown reaches of space, as we've lack a lot of inspiration like that in the world, especially recently. It reminds me of movies like Explorers from the 80s. My only fear about it is that Sci-Fi animation hasn't done particularly well in the last decade or so, so this might not have been the right time for it. But overall I hope it does well, and if it gets good WoM I think it might.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A lot of good family movies are out and about. School is ending in many places this month. Time for some Summer legs.

IOW... I wouldn't count my theater tickets for any of the movies until the Summer is hatched.

What the heck am I talking about?

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I know that some like to dismiss it or discount it here on this side of the forum, but I think there is still bit of an anti-Disney sentiment out there. Especially when it comes to the Disney vs Dreamworks and Disney vs Uni (Comcast) debates, the latter you can see particularly in the theme park space even here on this site.

So it didn't surprise me at all when I saw it online. Basically the idea is that anything that can potentially drop Disney down a peg they are going to root for and pit against something Disney has released, even if its far fetched.

Indeed. It's certainly noticeable on the theme park side. This has been discussed a little on the Uni threads, but my personal impression is that there is noticeable disappointment that Epic hasn't turned out to be quite the Disney killer some people were hoping it would be.

Obviously HTTYD has been a big hit, but comparing its box office to Lilo & Stitch does go to show how good Disney still is at keeping their films alive relative to other studios. On paper, the HTTYD franchise has grossed far more money and actually is a film franchise rather than a singular film with some TV and DTV spinoffs. Disney, however, has a whole ecosystem into which these films slot very neatly from home entertainment, streaming, the parks, and consumer products that means even less successful ones keep earning money into eternity. The Hercules musical, for example, is currently in previews in London's West End.

I guess my overriding feeling is that the performance of the HTTYD remake, while certainly strong, is another sign that the reports of Disney's demise or at least it's knocking down to level pegging with Dreamworks or Comcast remain greatly exaggerated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Elio has to compete directly with HTTYD next week, and we're about to enter the peak of summer movie competition, but I don't think there's any major family title after Elio until Smurfs?

Superman will draw some kids I think, but if Elio opens low it does have time to build interest with younger children.

It will have to be good or it will bomb

Box office is looking pretty weak for the summer to this point…

Expected more for dragon…and while stitch is a success…it would probably get to a billion easily in a stronger year…if those when exist anymore?

 

[TP2000]

For the two cents this is worth, and without going to see what the box office estimates are for it yet, my pop culture radar senses that Elio is not going to be a big deal.

It will do much better than Strange World, thank God, but I don't think it's going to be a big hit for Burbank and Pixar. Maybe it will do better at the box office than Lightyear and Wish did? Maybe?

I've sat through several Elio commercials on YouTube recently, and I'm just not feeling it. It doesn't help that it seems like one of those movies co-written by the humorless ladies in HR. I just don't sense it's hitting the 2025 zeitgeist.

 

[TP2000]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

View attachment 865022

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

These “rumors” of the $300M budget only comes from one “source” and it’s not confirmed. That article you posted gets its “info” from that same “source”, so is just regurgitating the same stuff without independent verification.

Elio’s budget may end up being more than the normal $200M, or it might be business as usual with $200M. Point is never just rely on one “source” for this type of info. Because if it’s just coming from one place there is no way to verify if it’s just bad info or not. Also we already know that Pixar accounts for things differently than other studios due to adding in administrative costs of the studio, so I wouldn’t put much credence into a “high” budget anyways, as it’s not the real cost of production.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety

Not sure who I can link to, but if you Google around a bit the story is easy to find. Elio had a massive overhaul mid movie which probably accounts for a lot of the budget. Not sure what was going on with the original but it looks like they decided to seriously rework it.