Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

You mean they didn’t go broke?

Apparently not? The one studio that keeps defying narratives that are only made for them!

 

[TP2000]

Disney doesn’t make movies like Cap 4 and Thunderbolts to break even in theaters.

Especially when they are spending $180 to $250 Million on those tentpole movies from Lucas, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS, Disney, etc. to get them into a theater.

That said, Lilo & Stitch, with its comparatively modest $100 Million production budget is an interesting twist. If Burbank can use AI and replace a bunch of people on the studio lot with technology to get the costs down for most of their movies to $100 Million, I could see that penciling out for them quite handily.

Assuming that those new $100 Million tentpoles made with AI Helper go on to do decent streaming/rental business in the first few fiscal years after they do merely "okay" in theaters.

I'm sure this will be disagreed with, but I don't remember this being posted previously. Deadline (using the same formulations they use to determine the end-of-year successes and failures each Spring) has Snow White as losing less than one would think, primarily because of its post-theatrical allotment.

Think of it this way... This thread is about box office, which gives us a fairly accurate dollar figure to know how deep the financial holes are the bombs like Snow White or Indy 5 or Wish made for themselves, or how deep the holes are mere flops like Captain America 4 or Thunderbolts are in to creep their way out of via future streaming fees.

We'll see next Spring if they ultimately stick with that number when the year's biggest bombs are revisited.

That sounds reasonable. But we'll need a new thread for that future-potential earnings reporting. Probably best to call it something like "Disney+ And Rental Income From Yesteryear's Movies". I don't know, the title needs some work. Something catchier. I'll let the thread starter for that mull it over more, whomever they may be.

 

[TP2000]

Here's a quick holiday weekend update, and we'll need to wait for Tuesday for the full 4 day weekend haul.

This is the inflation adjusted look at the opening weekend's for some of the live action remakes of the past decade. Lilo & Stitch is in 2nd place, handily beating Aladdin and coming in behind Beauty & The Beast.

And again, with that tiny $100 Million production budget, Lilo & Stitch is going to be profitable by early June! Now that's the way to make a fun summer blockbuster, Burbank! Let's hope they remember that. How did the Lilo & Stitch budget remain so low??? Anyone know? Was this supposed to be a TV show that they strung together into a movie?

 

[TP2000]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

You mean they didn’t go broke?

Apparently not? The one studio that keeps defying narratives that are only made for them!

The next basic question to ask, in any sort of financial cost/benefit analysis, is how much money did Disney spend on production and marketing to hit that $2 Billion in global ticket sales by Memorial Day?

I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 2nd or 3rd place studios spent to get their box office totals so far.

 

[TP2000]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

They were the only studio to reach that milestone last year too. You’d never know it from most of the things posted here, of course.

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

View attachment 860499

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

Don’t forget to tack on the $920M they’ve gotten in reported PVOD and licensing revenue so far this year. Obviously not all attributed to the films released this year, but it’s ongoing revenue received that cover the cost of their content.

 

[HoustonHorn]

https://deadline.com/2025/05/lilo-stitch-marketing-box-office-1236410814/

Deadline has a good post-mortem of Disney's marketing for Stitch. And far be it for me to step on any toes re: profitability, but they break this down at the end of the article as well. If you count ancillaries, it's already in the black. On pure box office, per Deadline, it needs $410ww, and will have more than $340 this weekend alone!

Also some fascinating nuggets in there about how L&S generates $2.5 billion in retail revenue per year - one of 11 Disney franchises to earn more than $1 billion annually on retail.

Out of the box office and into personal experience, I saw this with my 10 yo daughter on Friday. Relatively empty theatre (of course, it was 1 in the afternoon - she finished school for the year at 11:15, but a lot of schools here are going back this week), but multiple suckers sprung for the Stitch Combo (this guy included) at the concession stand, and there were lots of tears shed during the movie. I thought it was a good way to update an animated movie so that it wasn't a shot-for-shot remake, but didn't stray so far from the heart and themes of the original so as to be unrecognizable. While we weren't in the population surveyed, my daughter and I talked about our hope for sequels after it was over.

 

[TP2000]

Don’t forget to tack on the $920M they’ve gotten in reported PVOD and licensing revenue so far this year. Obviously not all attributed to the films released this year, but it’s ongoing revenue received that cover the cost of their content.

If you could break that down into which films from 2024 were streaming in the first five months of 2025, and which films from 2025 have yet to stream, that would be helpful.

 

[Nevermore525]

If you could break that down into which films from 2024 were streaming in the first five months of 2025, and which films from 2025 have yet to stream, that would be helpful.

Moana 2 hit PVOD January 28 (on D+ March 12)
Mufasa February 18 (D+ March 26)
Snow White May 13 (No D+ date yet)
Captain America 4 April 15 (D+ May 28)
Thunderbolts*, The Amateur, and Lilo & Stitch has nothing yet for PVOD or D+/Hulu

 

[BrianLo]

And again, with that tiny $100 Million production budget, Lilo & Stitch is going to be profitable by early June! Now that's the way to make a fun summer blockbuster, Burbank! Let's hope they remember that. How did the Lilo & Stitch budget remain so low??? Anyone know? Was this supposed to be a TV show that they strung together into a movie?

The movie wasn’t actually made by Disney, it was made by Rideback and distributed by Disney. Rideback also made the live action Aladdin.

I hope it’s ok that we talk about production costs, who produces the films and profit… since those are not in the title of the thread.

 

[Disney Irish]

The movie wasn’t actually made by Disney, it was made by Rideback and distributed by Disney. Rideback also made the live action Aladdin.

I hope it’s ok that we talk about production costs, who produces the films and profit… since those are not in the title of the thread.

Wasn't it technically co-produced? So unknown who actually paid for what. But this at least would be similar to Avatar where Cameron makes it and Disney distributed it, so the cost/revenue of who gets what down to the percentages is murky.

 

[BrianLo]

Wasn't it technically co-produced? So unknown who actually paid for what. But this at least would be similar to Avatar where Cameron makes it and Disney distributed it, so the cost/revenue of who gets what down to the percentages is murky.

Oh Disney gets the money, it’s just a different production group they used - and clearly cheaper.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I looked at going this evening. The theaters were way too full. Every showing, two locations. Only seats available were maybe the first two rows, which I don’t enjoy. I also don’t enjoy a crowded theater.

We will take a look on Monday.

 

[Stripes]

The next basic question to ask, in any sort of financial cost/benefit analysis, is how much money did Disney spend on production and marketing to hit that $2 Billion in global ticket sales by Memorial Day?

I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 2nd or 3rd place studios spent to get their box office totals so far.

Paramount reportedly spent $500 million on production and marketing for Mission Impossible.

 

[Tha Realest]

Paramount reportedly spent $500 million on production and marketing for Mission Impossible.

More like Mission: Irresponsible.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

View attachment 860499

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

Well according to Deadline you're about $63M short on your 2025 rounding totals there.

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Surfs To Galactic $341.7M Global Opening; ‘Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning’ Lights The Fuse With Franchise-Best $204M WW Launch – International Box Office

Lilo & Stitch grossed $341.7M in its global opening, while Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning served up a franchise-best start of $204M WW

deadline.com

Which puts Disney at about $487M in the red, only if we're assuming the rest of your calculations are correct for the production and marketing costs (which we know can also be off as previously discussed). I think its closer to $360M myself (I could be off on the math as I'm just eyeballing it for discussion purposes), if we half the marketing budget totals you've been using to just the theatrical window only, again as previously discussed.

Which means, again just eyeballing it, Stitch only really needs to get ~$850M to erase any deficit so far during 2025. @BrianLo or someone can check the math to be sure, but I don't think its as much of a gargantuan task as you alluded to that requires a bunch of heavy lifting by Stitch.

 

[Disney Analyst]

“Lilo & Stitch” is successfully causing box office mayhem. Disney’s latest live-action remake ignited to $341 million globally, including a mighty $157.8 million from international markets.

It’s the second-largest worldwide opening weekend of the year behind the Warner Bros. video game adaptation “A Minecraft Movie” ($313 million worldwide over three days). Ticket sales for “Lilo” also rank as the third-best start for Disney’s live-action reboots following 2019’s “The Lion King” and 2017’s “Beauty and the Beast,” which each ended up grossing over $1 billion.

Box Office: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Ignites to $341 Million Globally, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ Climbs to $200 Million

"Lilo & Stitch' ignited to $300 million globally while "Mission: Impossible" climbs near $200 million in its first weekend.

variety.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Our theaters keep filling up too much all day.

Right now 7:30 or 7:45 look bearable, but so did 5:30 a couple of hours ago. Oddly, one AMC seems to be running a 7, 7:30 and 7:45 (plus 6:30 and 8 in 3D) which seems to be spreading people out more. There’s been no other cluster like that all day.

We shall see…

 

[Disney Irish]

Our theaters keep filling up too much all day.

Right now 7:30 or 7:45 look bearable, but so did 5:30 a couple of hours ago. Oddly, one AMC seems to be running a 7, 7:30 and 7:45 (plus 6:30 and 8 in 3D) which seems to be spreading people out more. There’s been no other cluster like that all day.

We shall see…

Stitch has had 45% walk-up business, which is unusually high these days. Add in another recent movie of Minecraft having 57% walk-up, and it kind of puts into questions how much pre-sales should be trusted in future predictions.

 

[Phroobar]

What I think is interesting is seeing seating reserved on the app but those seats are empty during the movie. Are people buying tickets and not showing up?