Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Fast math would have Snow at a loss of 235 (Deadline said way less, but we'll see what they say next year), Cap 4 a 17.5 loss, Thunderbolts a loss of 47.5 so far and Stitch has made 20. I won't include the tail end of Moana 2 or Mufasa, because that just makes it already positive.

Your 850 figure checks out, considering Thunderbolts is still making money. Of course that Jan-March quarter was already fully covered up by last years releases. We already know that from the quarterlies.

Thanks, I think it’s safe to say that Stitch will get to $850M fairly easy just based on opening strong. Rest of 2025 I think will be strong also, but we’ll see.

 

[Clyde Birdbrain]

What I think is interesting is seeing seating reserved on the app but those seats are empty during the movie. Are people buying tickets and not showing up?

Maybe they are last-minute cancellations or A-List people not showing up?

At AMC you can cancel up to until the movie starts.

I saw Lilo & Stitch at AMC Disney Springs on Saturday and all the seats around us on our row were empty until well into the previews. These people were not showing up until 15 minutes after the lights went out.

 

[Phroobar]

Maybe they are last-minute cancellations or A-List people not showing up?

At AMC you can cancel up to until the movie starts.

I saw Lilo & Stitch at AMC Disney Springs on Saturday and all the seats around us on our row were empty until well into the previews. These people were not showing up until 15 minutes after the lights went out.

That's the thing. I checked once the movie started and those seats were still reserved. It feels like up to 1/3 of the seats were empty.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m always on the oppo side of things

L&S made $183 domestically…that’s good…no matter our perceptions of presold seats

Marvel = bad
Snow White = embarrassing
Stitch = good

Not hard


I will say…those trailers for the next two look pretty awful

We’ll be back to normal soon

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m always on the oppo side of things

L&S made $183 domestically…that’s good…no matter our perceptions of presold seats

Marvel = bad
Snow White = embarrassing
Stitch = good

Not hard


I will say…those trailers for the next two look pretty awful

We’ll be back to normal soon

I think you're making a joke here, but what is normal in this context? As I've been hearing this idea that we're about to "return to normal" at the box office for the past 5 years in this forum, but its yet to happen in any meaningful way. We have spurts and glimpses of it, but it never actually materializes. So I question the metric used here to determine "normal". And if its in reference to a "Disney normal" or their lack of hitting it in 2025, I ask for what era because there have been many "Disney normal" decades over its 100 years of existence from "failure normal" to "ruling the box office normal".

Also just on a personal note, I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someones perception of what is pleasant.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someone's perception of what is pleasant.

 

[Disney Irish]

View attachment 861006

Except your "normal" is different than my "normal" is different than another persons "normal". Normalcy is a perception, one that changes from person to person. There can be an agreed upon "normal", but even that is based on perception and changes.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think you're making a joke here, but what is normal in this context? As I've been hearing this idea that we're about to "return to normal" at the box office for the past 5 years in this forum, but its yet to happen in any meaningful way. We have spurts and glimpses of it, but it never actually materializes. So I question the metric used here to determine "normal". And if its in reference to a "Disney normal" or their lack of hitting it in 2025, I ask for what era because there have been many "Disney normal" decades over its 100 years of existence from "failure normal" to "ruling the box office normal".

Also just on a personal note, I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someones perception of what is pleasant.

It will never be, because before Covid, $20-$25 for 2 tickets with a Stubbs membership is now almost $40.

It’s less of a spur of the moment, nominal cost thing to do, and now real money. (+$20 to share a popcorn & soda.)

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except your "normal" is different than my "normal" is different than another persons "normal". Normalcy is a perception, one that changes from person to person. There can be an agreed upon "normal", but even that is based on perception and changes.

Nope. I don't know what is normal either, I just Googled it and sent a screen shot.

I am not sure what normal is, but I am NOT normal.

 

[Disney Irish]

Nope. I don't know what is normal either, I just Googled it and sent a screen shot.

I am not sure what normal is, but I am NOT normal.

I don't think any of here are really "normal". lol

 

[BrianLo]

I think you're making a joke here, but what is normal in this context?

Not directed at me… but Normal for Disney in the tentpole environment the last 15 years is 2-3 big hits. 1-2 outright bombs and a lot of in between.

2023/2024 were on the abnormal end. Both because 2024 didn’t have a bomb and 2023 didn’t really have a huge success (GoTG3 and Elemental notwithstanding in unique ways) and had 4 bombs. 2019 was abnormal because there were so many massive hits, but even that year had a bomb.

In the context of this year - that means we probably will see 1-2 more big hits and maybe another bomb. If 3 big hits happen that would be “abnormally good”… and there are still 3 major contenders left.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not directed at me… but Normal for Disney in the tentpole environment the last 15 years is 2-3 big hits. 1-2 outright bombs and a lot of in between.

2023/2024 were on the abnormal end. Both because 2024 didn’t have a bomb and 2023 didn’t really have a huge success (GoTG3 and Elemental notwithstanding in unique ways) and had 4 bombs. 2019 was abnormal because there were so many massive hits, but even that year had a bomb.

In the context of this year - that means we probably will see 1-2 more big hits and maybe another bomb. If 3 big hits happen that would be “abnormally good”… and there are still 3 major contenders left.

Thanks, which is where I come back to "normal" is based on perception. As I suspect SirWalt's "normal" is based on 2019 type of results whereas we know that is the exception rather than the rule. And that "normal" has mostly been reset in this post-pandemic box office and is trying to still be found for this era of Disney.

 

[TP2000]

The movie wasn’t actually made by Disney, it was made by Rideback and distributed by Disney. Rideback also made the live action Aladdin.

Really??? I had no idea. I don't think anyone here mentioned it, at least not in this thread. I checked out Rideback Ranch, and they look like a fun little workshop on Beverly Blvd. where stuff gets done well, but obviously on a budget.

Rideback Ranch | Los Angeles

Founded by Dan Lin, Rideback Ranch supports and empowers visionary storytellers who share our passion for entertaining audiences across all genres and around the globe.

ridebackranch.com

Lilo & Stitch looks headed to an easy Billion at the box office, so the Rideback team must be thrilled and very proud this week. And I also imagine whichever exec over the hill on the Burbank campus gave them the contract to do Lilo & Stich instead of doing it in house must also be very happy.

The only losers in this money making scenario would seem to be the Disney employees on the Burbank lot who would have required $200 Million to make Lilo & Stitch but would have simultaneously mucked it up somehow to get bad PR (again) and then it only made $400 Million at the global box office. Rinse and repeat.

I can just imagine the death stares the Rideback kids are getting from the Disney kids at Silver Lake brunch tables now!

Paramount reportedly spent $500 million on production and marketing for Mission Impossible.

You're kidding?! I just checked and... yup, the production budget for that one was $400 Million.

How many sets of elevator shoes does Mr. Cruise need to make a movie?

Whatever that shoe lift budget is, that apparently really adds up for Paramount, in inches and dollars.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Though I’ve only seen that happen a couple times, I’ve always suspected it’s the theater holding a few seats back for walk-ups.

I wish that was the case at my theaters. I’ll see seats reserved when I walk up to buy my tickets and they are not made available nor does anyone ever arrive to sit in them. It happens regularly when I see a movie. It’s weird.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, here's the box office for Monday the 26th, which now gives us the final tally for the entirety of the Memorial Day Weekend from last Thursday's previews through the actual holiday.

Lilo & Stitch made $183 Million at the domestic box office this past weekend, which is more than Thunderbolts made in an entire month and over twice what Rachel Zegler's Snow White made in its entire theatrical run. Impressive! It must be nice for Burbank to be reminded that this is how you launch a big tentpole movie for America.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday July 17, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Snow White lost money, but hasn't it also done about as expected?

 

[Disney Irish]

Really??? I had no idea. I don't think anyone here mentioned it, at least not in this thread. I checked out Rideback Ranch, and they look like a fun little workshop on Beverly Blvd. where stuff gets done well, but obviously on a budget.

Rideback Ranch | Los Angeles

Founded by Dan Lin, Rideback Ranch supports and empowers visionary storytellers who share our passion for entertaining audiences across all genres and around the globe.

ridebackranch.com

Lilo & Stitch looks headed to an easy Billion at the box office, so the Rideback team must be thrilled and very proud this week. And I also imagine whichever exec over the hill on the Burbank campus gave them the contract to do Lilo & Stich instead of doing it in house must also be very happy.

The only losers in this money making scenario would seem to be the Disney employees on the Burbank lot who would have required $200 Million to make Lilo & Stitch but would have simultaneously mucked it up somehow to get bad PR (again) and then it only made $400 Million at the global box office. Rinse and repeat.

I can just imagine the death stares the Rideback kids are getting from the Disney kids at Silver Lake brunch tables now!

Disney contracts out a lot of things and have for many many decades, so I don't think it really matters in the end where the work was actually done. And I don't anyone is giving "death stares" to anyone let alone at some fictitious bunch that you continually think happens with folks at Disney.

Also as I mentioned in a follow-up comment, I think its actually a co-production between the two studios not specifically only a Rideback production. So in the end Disney still gets the money.

You're kidding?! I just checked and... yup, the production budget for that one was $400 Million.

How many sets of elevator shoes does Mr. Cruise need to make a movie?

Whatever that shoe lift budget is, that apparently really adds up for Paramount, in inches and dollars.

One of the many reasons why the studio was bought by Skydance last year. They have been just basically held up by Cruise and Transformers for the last decade, but the bubble finally burst and they needed to be bought.

Disney is basically the last of the Hollywood golden era studios left intact as an independent.

 

[Disney Irish]

Snow White lost money, but hasn't it also done about as expected?

Some would argue that Disney expected more (I know some tried in this very thread), but I suspect it has done about what many expected, even internally at Disney, after all the drama surrounding it.

 

[TP2000]

Well according to Deadline you're about $63M short on your 2025 rounding totals there.

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Surfs To Galactic $341.7M Global Opening; ‘Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning’ Lights The Fuse With Franchise-Best $204M WW Launch – International Box Office

Lilo & Stitch grossed $341.7M in its global opening, while Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning served up a franchise-best start of $204M WW

deadline.com

The problem there is that you are quoting me from Saturday, where I was referring to only Thursday/Friday data that came in Saturday morning, before we had full weekend estimates as quoted in that Deadline article from Sunday.

But, now that we have the full weekend's data to use (because it's now Tuesday) the numbers look different than they did Saturday morning. Lilo & Stich has now made $361,300,000 at the global box office as of last night.

Using that updated data through Monday, the formula used for global box office still stands as very useful.

Which puts Disney at about $487M in the red, only if we're assuming the rest of your calculations are correct for the production and marketing costs (which we know can also be off as previously discussed). I think its closer to $360M myself (I could be off on the math as I'm just eyeballing it for discussion purposes), if we half the marketing budget totals you've been using to just the theatrical window only, again as previously discussed.

A couple things there. First, it's not that bad. My calculations after this weekend's full box office has come in puts Burbank at a $460 Million loss and narrowing.

Second, they aren't "my calculations" for production costs. They are the costs attributed to The Numbers website who uses widely reported data from reputable industry sources like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, etc. The marketing costs I use are the widely accepted formula that most studios spend at least half their production budget on marketing. But with Disney's bloated mega-budget movies, I purposely cap that at $100 Million. Unless, Disney themselves admits they spent more, like the $140 Million they bragged they spent on marketing The Little Mermaid to prove to the Silver Lake brunch crowd that they aren't racists. But generally, it's 50% of production or $100 Million on marketing, whichever is smaller.

And third, I was responding to someone who noted Disney had just crossed the $2 Billion box office figure for 2025, but they were including the two movies released in the last month of 2024 (Moana 2 and Mufasa) who both had successful box office performance for the next several months. We can certainly back out those 2024 movies and pretend that they didn't sell tickets in Winter, 2025 if you'd like.

That would look like this...

Captain America 4: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $120 Domestic, $85 Overseas = $65 Million Loss
Snow White: $270 Production, $100 Marketing, $52 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: $60 Production, $30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $21 Overseas = $44 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $73 Overseas = $92 Million Loss and Narrowing
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $100 Marketing*, $110 Domestic, $72 Overseas = $18 Million Loss and Narrowing FAST!
*Out of formula marketing budget of $100 Million per Variety reporting last week.
Burbank Total Thus Far on 5/27/25 = $460 Million Loss, but narrowing nicely thanks to Lilo & Stitch

Which means, again just eyeballing it, Stitch only really needs to get ~$850M to erase any deficit so far during 2025. @BrianLo or someone can check the math to be sure, but I don't think its as much of a gargantuan task as you alluded to that requires a bunch of heavy lifting by Stitch.

Based on the numbers above, it would look to me like Lilo & Stitch needs to pull in about another $900 Million at the global box office to erase that $460 Million deficit Burbank is currently in. The exact amount depends on the domestic/overseas ticketing mix obviously, but right now Lilo & Stitch is not performing like it should overseas. That's the only downside to the otherwise good news for that cheaply made movie.

The only country it hasn't opened in yet is Japan, and it should do well there. But it won't be enough to overcome that foreign deficit. It's going to be close, but....

My hunch is that Lilo & Stitch won't quite break $1 Billion owing to its weaker overseas box office thus far.

.

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Disney contracts out a lot of things and have for many many decades, so I don't think it really matters in the end where the work was actually done. And I don't anyone is giving "death stares" to anyone let alone at some fictitious bunch that you continually think happens with folks at Disney.

You forget, I used to live in SoCal. And I get around. I didn't make up the Silver Lake brunch table scene, I actually lived it.

And yes, the cattiness and (another word I probably shouldn't type here) from table to table is real. A few times I went, you could cut the air with a knife. The air hugs and the smiles are there, and as fake as can be, when you're being seated and making an entrance. Most folks are in the industry, or are aligned with the industry through their law firms or commercial real estate firms, and so the fake smiles are mandatory. But after the Mimosas arrive, the claws come out and the dialogue about who is sitting at which table and which studio outfit they work for or are aligned with is priceless! And for someone like me from OC who wasn't really involved, it was hysterical!

I'm surprised Bravo hasn't done a series on that.... The Real Queens Of Silver Lake Brunch. Who do I call to pitch that?