Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

The big tell will be next weekend. How big of a drop?

This same 4-day long weekend in 2023, Ant Man 3 opened to $120 million and then collapsed after that on its way to a $214 million finish.

I think that may have been a then record 2nd weekend drop for an MCU movie. I don't think this will suffer as bad (it's benefitting from a lack of major competition) but its B- Cinemascore is unusually poor.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The big tell will be next weekend. How big of a drop?

It will unfortunately and likely be big. Movies with that CinemaScore rarely have 'legs.'

But it will certainly break even having already surpassed its operating budget.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s worth remembering that they didn’t make billions as unknowns either.

The first Ironman was an absolute blockbuster and “only” made $580m (about $850m inflation adjusted).

The first Hulk bombed, it only made $260m ($380m adjusted).

The first Thor made $450m ($635m adjusted).

The first Cap $370m ($520 adjusted).

It wasn’t until the first Avengers movie the MCU actually broke $1b… and by that time all the characters were more or less universally known.

As I mentioned earlier I think the MCU expectations are unrealistically high now, a movie like Thor LaT, which made $750m, is now viewed as a bit of a box office failure.

I think the MCUs “problem” isn’t the unknown characters but the lack of a good villain. They need to find the next baddie to rally against and they’ll see those Bs again.

I agree and have often said the MCU has set unrealistic expectations on people, unless it’s hitting $1B+ people see them as failures when they are not. So let’s see how this one turns out so far it’s doing fairly well.

 

[TP2000]

Happy Presidents Day weekend, gang! Here's how the weekend box office looks through Sunday, although most folks still have tomorrow off for the 3 day weekend so we'll need to wait for Tuesday for the official tally of the entire holiday weekend.

Please tell us what the dozen or so people on this forum are going to do to effect the nationwide change you want to see?

For the record, I've always had this forum at about two dozen folks actively posting/reacting.

It's a very small part of The Rage Network TM, but we punch way above our weight in deciding which movies to make flop at the global box office. With just a few posts here, I can make all of Mexico avoid Strange World, for example.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 14, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of February 14, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

For the record, I've always had this forum at about two dozen folks actively posting/reacting.

It varies, but I think there are about a dozen who are active, and maybe two dozen in total that float in here at various times to like or respond. But the point is still the same, I don't see what any of us here would do to impact the state of things beyond talking about it, which is why there is now a dedicated thread to use. And yet I don't see much interaction in there, showing that most if not almost all but a few don't really want to go on for page after page talking about it, especially within the content of the box office. As much of an important topic as it is, its too big for this forum.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It varies, but I think there are about a dozen who are active, and maybe two dozen in total that float in here at various times to like or respond. But the point is still the same, I don't see what any of us here would do to impact the state of things beyond talking about it, which is why there is now a dedicated thread to use. And yet I don't see much interaction in there, showing that most if not almost all but a few don't really want to go on for page after page talking about it, especially within the content of the box office. As much of an important topic as it is, its too big for this forum.

I think the point is nothing we say matters…even though some are adamant the “anti Disney conspiracy” is bred here

Movies succeed or fail on their own merits/circumstances

With few exceptions…nothing good fails and nothing terrible succeeds

 

[Disney Irish]

I think the point is nothing we say matters…even though some are adamant the “anti Disney conspiracy” is bred here

Movies succeed or fail on their own merits/circumstances

With few exceptions…nothing good fails and nothing terrible succeeds

I don't think anyone said or even tried to hint that the "anti-Disney" stuff is bred here. I think what has been said is that too many here buy into it, when they shouldn't.

As for the rest, that wasn't the topic being discussed but overall I don't disagree but I think some discount the effect that the outside world has on viewership too much, but I don't want to go down that rabbit hole again. So lets just move on from that.

 

[TP2000]

For those interested, here's how the opening weekend of Captain America compares to the previous five movies from Marvel. This is freshly cherry-picked data folks, so enjoy it!

This latest Captain America is in 5th place for opening weekends, ahead of The Marvels disastrous opening, but notably less than the other four movies Marvel has released in the past two years.

And here's what that domestic box office chart looks like in comparison. The line for Captain America is still buried down in the corner between Ant-Man and The Marvels, but it will be interesting to see what kind of trajectory it might have a week from now.

Stay tuned Marvel fans!

 

[Disney Irish]

For those interested, here's how the opening weekend of Captain America compares to the previous five movies from Marvel. This is freshly cherry-picked data folks, so enjoy it!

This latest Captain America is in 5th place for opening weekends, ahead of The Marvels disastrous opening, but notably less than the other four movies Marvel has released in the past two years.

View attachment 844672

And here's what that domestic box office chart looks like in comparison. The line for Captain America is still buried down in the corner with Ant-Man and The Marvels, but it will be interesting to see what kind of trajectory it might have a week from now.

Stay tuned Marvel fans!

View attachment 844673

And if I was to guess, and its just a guess, it'll land somewhere between Quantumania and Guardians domestic, and somewhere between Quantumania and Spider-Man for its WW.

So certainly not the best, but not the worst either, just in the middle. Which is what reviews show, and so guess the box office will reflect that as well.

 

[DKampy]

I saw Captain America….my expectations were low… but it was better than expected…. I was entertained… I would recommend anyone on the fence to give it a shot

The most surprising element was before the movie begun…. I was expecting trailers for both Thunderbolts and Fantastic Four… as the last 2 trailers are usually from the same studio of the movie I am screening…. And that seems what everyone else got…. There was no FF trailer….. instead the other one we got was The Amateur

 

[Disney Irish]

I saw Captain America….my expectations were low… but it was better than expected…. I was entertained… I would recommend anyone on the fence to give it a shot

The most surprising element was before the movie begun…. I was expecting trailers for both Thunderbolts and Fantastic Four… as the last 2 trailers are usually from the same studio of the movie I am screening…. And that seems what everyone else got…. There was no FF trailer….. instead the other one we got was The Amateur

When I went on Thursday, my usual movie going day, they had both trailers playing. So don’t know why your showing didn’t have them.

 

[Agent H]

When I went on Thursday, my usual movie going day, they had both trailers playing. So don’t know why your showing didn’t have them.

This was my experience as well

 

[DKampy]

When I went on Thursday, my usual movie going day, they had both trailers playing. So don’t know why your showing didn’t have them.

Yeah…. It was bizarre… especially since The Amateur was the final trailer after Thunderbolts right where I expected FF to be

 

[LittleBuford]

I think the point is nothing we say matters…even though some are adamant the “anti Disney conspiracy” is bred here

No-one here has ever claimed this.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No-one here has ever claimed this.

…I could only think of two actually…And we have some very nice prizes coming for them

 

[Agent H]

…I could only think of two actually…And we have some very nice prizes coming for them

Which 2?

 

[Disney Irish]

…I could only think of two actually…And we have some very nice prizes coming for them

I think you're confusing what is actually being said versus what your takeaway is from what is being said. No one claimed anything of the sorts, maybe that was your takeaway from it, but that is not the actual posters intent of what was said. And as you know I've been involved in almost all these threads over the years, so I was around for it.

We have quite a few conspiracy theorist on this site, especially surrounding the box office and Disney's place and impact on it. But this isn't one of them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What 2?

…oh no…these “movie wars” have been going on in threads for years…

Some specifically have said the internet “hate network” or “rage network” was destroying movies…a ridiculous nonsensical stance

But they have undoubtedly developed amnesia or would claim offense if called out.

So anonymity is best.

The history is out there though

 

[Agent H]

…oh no…these “movie wars” have been going on in threads for years…

Some specifically have said the internet “hate network” or “rage network” was destroying movies…a ridiculous nonsensical stance

But they have undoubtedly developed amnesia or would claim offense if called out.

So anonymity is best.

The history is out there though

I don’t know about other platforms but YouTube definitely has an impact on the “ outside world” my coworker expresses “opinions”that sound very much like things say the critical drinker has said

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

…oh no…these “movie wars” have been going on in threads for years…

Some specifically have said the internet “hate network” or “rage network” was destroying movies…a ridiculous nonsensical stance

But they have undoubtedly developed amnesia or would claim offense if called out.

So anonymity is best.

The history is out there though

I was thinking the same, I had the impression, and have responded to, a few people who have claimed the rage network has severely impacted the box office of movies.