Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Casper Gutman]

Who were considered the A listers? I’m just curious. I knew of the four main Avengers (and Spiderman) before the MCU. Iron Man the least, but the others were pretty familiar to me. I don’t think I can say the same for any of the other MCU characters (Antman, Dr Strange, Guardians, etc). I could certainly be an outlier though.

Most broadly, Marvel’s “A-List” can be defined as all the characters Marvel DIDN’T control when the MCU began. Any characters Hollywood perceived to have even the slightest box office appeal had been sold to other studios at rock-bottom discounts.

More narrowly, Marvel’s A-List was Spidey and the X-Men and, on a slightly lower tier, Hulk.

 

[Disney Irish]

Most broadly, Marvel’s “A-List” can be defined as all the characters Marvel DIDN’T control when the MCU began. Any characters Hollywood perceived to have even the slightest box office appeal had been sold to other studios at rock-bottom discounts.

More narrowly, Marvel’s A-List was Spidey and the X-Men and, on a slightly lower tier, Hulk.

Fantastic Four was also considered A-List which is why they were also sold off to Fox at the time. Fox just didn't really know what to do with them, which is why all their movies have been uneven over the years.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Fantastic Four was also considered A-List which is why they were also sold off to Fox at the time. Fox just didn't really know what to do with them, which is why all their movies have been uneven over the years.

I love FF, and they’re historically vital, but they haven’t been A-List since Lee and Kirby left the book. Sales were always relatively low even among comic fans. Yes, their history and some cheap old cartoons got Fox to spend a few pennies, but they aren’t anywhere close to the level of the X-Men or Spidey.

 

[Disney Irish]

I love FF, and they’re historically vital, but they haven’t been A-List since Lee and Kirby left the book. Sales were always relatively low even among comic fans. Yes, their history and some cheap old cartoons got Fox to spend a few pennies, but they aren’t anywhere close to the level of the X-Men or Spidey.

I guess it debatable but I don’t want to argue. But their addition to the MCU is bringing a higher tier set of characters that weren’t there outside of Spidey and maybe Hulk.

 

[easyrowrdw]

For the generic public that doesn't follow comics, prior to 2008 -

Iron Man was a song by Black Sabbath
Thor was just some Norse god from myths
Black Widow was the name of a spider (or a B movie from the 80s depending on your age)
Hawkeye was a character from the TV show MASH from the 70s

Prior to the MCU the general public didn't know the names Iron Man, Thor, Black Widow, or Hawkeye, all of which were B, C, or D list characters in the comics. They knew Spider-Man and to a minor extent Hulk, of the 2 only Spider-Man was considered the A list of the comic world. And now with the introduction of the Fantastic Four, another A lister in the comics, they'll be adding another. For example who knew the Guardians of the Galaxy prior to 2014 outside of some comic nerds, they were C list characters.

So the MCU was built on the backs of minor league characters for its entirety that most if not all of the general public knew nothing about before 2008. Meaning that the MCU while going back to the minor leagues in Phases 4-6 can bring those same characters along and make them A listers just like they did with the others. We'll see how it all shakes out when we end Phase 6 in a couple years. But don't ever mistake that somehow the MCU is different now in Phase 4-6 with their characters being unknown as they've always been mostly unknown.

Most broadly, Marvel’s “A-List” can be defined as all the characters Marvel DIDN’T control when the MCU began. Any characters Hollywood perceived to have even the slightest box office appeal had been sold to other studios at rock-bottom discounts.

More narrowly, Marvel’s A-List was Spidey and the X-Men and, on a slightly lower tier, Hulk.

Thank you both. I always forget about X-Men. I was thinking mostly of the big 4 Avengers - Iron Man, Hulk, Thor, Cap. I guess when I think of building the MCU, I think of them so that’s who I was mostly curious about. Looks like I knew more than most people!

Either way, I agree it’s impressive that it almost didn’t matter what people knew in advance. They made successes out of everything. It’s a monumental achievement in movie making.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'm optimistic that Thunderbolts and Fantastic 4 will be better movies, but I think the brand has been damaged so much, that their box office chances have been greatly diminished from what they would have been even two years ago.

Sometimes I wonder if the brand has been diminished or the expectations are just unreasonably high due to how insanely successful the Infinity Stones story.

A comic book movie making $600-$750 million is still pretty impressive, it just looks like a failure compared to a string of billion dollar movies leading up to the $2 billion EndGame.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mostly agree with the exception of Elio, Freakier Friday, and Tron, I haven’t heard or seen much about any of them so it’s hard to predict what they’ll do. I think these will all live or die based on word of mouth.

I think Disney movies will have a profitable year though, my guess is 4 should make a huge profit, 3 should make decent profit, 2 may make or lose money, and I think 1 is destined to lose money. I would not be surprised if they make a billion in profit combined though. That’s a pretty solid year, especially after 2023.

Which ones?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Man nobody knows what Phase 5 (6? 7? whatever, normies lost track a long time ago) is building toward. There’s no single villain to
coalesce around and the multiverse stuff undercuts all the stakes even more than typical Marvel anything-is-possible nonsense. And throwing together a bunch of C and D list no-names isn’t going to move the dial. The best hope they have is Downey catching fire and pulling some of the old casual fans back in. I’m skeptical.

These movies have become tv episodes in a never ending series that general audiences have largely tuned out.

Agree…totally…the mass audience isn’t gonna want to be bothered with this dimensional shifting multiverse stuff for long. I’m surprised they’ve gotten this far

It depends on what you mean C and D list here.

If you're talking about the characters I'd like to remind you that Phases 1-3 was built around many of those B, C, D listers that you seem to think didn't move the dial. They didn't get an A list character in the bunch until Spidey was added in, and now again with F4.

If you're talking about the actors, the MCU made most if not all into A listers to begin with, none were A listers prior to the MCU. And in the case of RDJ revived his career which was basically on life support.

But either way you slice it the MCU has the ability to turn both the characters and the actors into "A List". So we'll see what becomes of the current crop of characters and actors.

As for the "what is it building towards" conversation. As has been discussed in various threads over the last couple years it all building towards Secret Wars/Battle World where a reset will happen and then move into the age of Mutants. The MCU has already hinted at Mutants already in Phase 4, and did again here in Brave New World in Phase 5, along with the hints of Battle World. So that is what they are building toward, and have been during the entire Multiverse Saga.

We’ve been through this before

Most of the more recognizable marvel characters outside of a comic book shop have been in the MCU

Marvelis more a collection of misfits that 5 backbone characters as DC was…

I think that’s what C and D means

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Which ones?

I think Avatar, Zootopia 2, F4, and Stitch will all be very profitable. A couple hundred million in profit each. (Taking into account Disney only distributes Avatar so they get a smaller cut of the profit, also on the assumption that Stitch has a lower end budget, $150m range, since I don’t think it’s been released).

I think Thunderbolts, Cap4, and Elio will make decent profits, somewhere around $100 million in profit each.

I think Tron and Freakier Friday are going to struggle a bit but should be in the break even range.

I think Snow White is going to lose a boatload, I just don’t see how it overcomes all the negativity, my guess is a loss iof $100-200 million.

$800-900 million profit off the first group, another $300 million in profit off the second group, a wash on the third, and minus $200 on the fourth… somewhere around $1 billion profit overall.

 

[BrianLo]

Another issue besides it coming out just two weeks after Superman is that the big July 4th weekend release is Jurassic World Rebirth. The Jurassic Park/World franchise has been a quietly reliable money-spinner, and bad reviews for the recent installments didn't hinder that. I can see both superhero movies being undercut, especially in foreign markets, if this seventh installment follows a similar path.

I disagree. This seems to always be your position, the Disney film can’t do well because of (often) Universal product X, Y, Z.

If anything a string of films with similar audience appeal brings out the general public and reminds them to actually go see a bunch of movies.

See Wicked, Moana and Mufasa. None of which impeded each other despite very strong demographic overlap. Which was completely counter to your predictions.

Fantastic Four is one of the films I’m not betting against this year. Along with Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3. Stitch will certainly do way better than the original. I also think Jurassic has an uphill climb being subsequent to the trilogy and general fatigue, but it plays well to International. But none of these factors are related to their release date(s). More strong product is a good thing for theatrical receipts. Always has been, always will be.

 

[Disney Irish]

Agree…totally…the mass audience isn’t gonna want to be bothered with this dimensional shifting multiverse stuff for long. I’m surprised they’ve gotten this far


We’ve been through this before

Most of the more recognizable marvel characters outside of a comic book shop have been in the MCU

Marvelis more a collection of misfits that 5 backbone characters as DC was…

I think that’s what C and D means

And I'm surprised the masses have stuck with the Fast franchise, yet here we are 10 about to be 11 movies in. Just because some can’t see its appeal doesn’t mean it won’t appeal to the masses.

As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.

 

[BrianLo]

I think Avatar, Zootopia 2, F4, and Stitch will all be very profitable. A couple hundred million in profit each. (Taking into account Disney only distributes Avatar so they get a smaller cut of the profit, also on the assumption that Stitch has a lower end budget, $150m range, since I don’t think it’s been released).

I think Thunderbolts, Cap4, and Elio will make decent profits, somewhere around $100 million in profit each.

I think Tron and Freakier Friday are going to struggle a bit but should be in the break even range.

I think Snow White is going to lose a boatload, I just don’t see how it overcomes all the negativity, my guess is a loss iof $100-200 million.

$800-900 million profit off the first group, another $300 million in profit off the second group, a wash on the third, and minus $200 on the fourth… somewhere around $1 billion profit overall.

Agreed.

Though I feel not great for Elio, which is a shame. They are playing in that retro sci fi wheelhouse that just doesn’t seem to work ever for them in animated fare.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And I'm surprised the masses have stuck with the Fast franchise, yet here we are 10 about to be 11 movies in. Just because some can’t see its appeal doesn’t mean it won’t appeal to the masses.

As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.

Just my opinion…but by far the DUMBEST franchise ever.

Just sheer stupidity without neurons firing

It makes Moonraker look like citizen kane…just my opinion


As far as marvel…I can remember what characters I knew/could recognize as a kid…long before fancy computing devices and digital on demand everything…
And they were the hulk, Spider-Man, Captain America, thing and to a lesser extent Thor…

So that’s what I consider the A list

The only baddies I can recall are Dr. Doom, the Goblin, doc oc and maybe red skull?

 

[Disney Irish]

Just my opinion…but by far the DUMBEST franchise ever.

Just sheer stupidity without neurons firing

It makes Moonraker look citizen kane…just my opinion


As far as marvel…I can remember what characters I knew/could recognize as a kid…long before fancy computing devices and digital on demand everything…
And they were the hulk, Spider-Man, Captain America, thing and to a lesser extent Thor…

So that’s what I consider the A list

The only baddies I can recall are Dr. Doom, the Goblin, doc oc and maybe red skull?

You knowing the characters doesn’t mean the masses did prior to the MCU. And that’s the point our own experiences need to be taken out of it, I’ve known every single character they introduced into the MCU and all the ones they have coming up, doesn’t mean I think that someone from the Midwest knows the same. So it’s the story the brings them in initially and it’s the characters that keep them coming back once they become attached to them. But they have to be introduced to them first in order to become attached to them. So the hope has been that the new characters being introduced are accepted, liked, and become an attachment to the masses. And in my opinion it’s been hit or miss, which is why I say we’ll see how it goes once Phase 6 ends in a couple years.

 

[brideck]

I guess that's the difference between a filmmaker like James Cameron who knows what he's doing and plans his movies well in advance versus Marvel Studios hastily rushing a movie into production and then having to reshoot the movie multiple times to try to salvage a disaster.

This has been the MCU brand since the beginning, though, hasn't it? During production, Iron Man switched from having the Mandarin be the villain to a hastily/poorly written third act in which Jeff Bridges goes crazy for no good reason. Even the now famous "I am Iron Man" coda was more or less decided on the spot rather than something that was scripted/planned in advance. If you watch any of the special features on the DVD/Disney+, they'll talk about how they were racing the release date clock with VFX to the very end.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.

It’s worth remembering that they didn’t make billions as unknowns either.

The first Ironman was an absolute blockbuster and “only” made $580m (about $850m inflation adjusted).

The first Hulk bombed, it only made $260m ($380m adjusted).

The first Thor made $450m ($635m adjusted).

The first Cap $370m ($520 adjusted).

It wasn’t until the first Avengers movie the MCU actually broke $1b… and by that time all the characters were more or less universally known.

As I mentioned earlier I think the MCU expectations are unrealistically high now, a movie like Thor LaT, which made $750m, is now viewed as a bit of a box office failure.

I think the MCUs “problem” isn’t the unknown characters but the lack of a good villain. They need to find the next baddie to rally against and they’ll see those Bs again.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Analyst]

Disney Calls ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ 4-Day At $100M Opening – Box Office Update

'Captain America: Brave New World' Will Lead 4-day Presidents Box Office with a shot at $100M+ after $40M+ Friday/previews.

deadline.com

SUNDAY AM: Refresh for chart and analysis… Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World came in slightly better on Saturday with $27.5M from what we saw last night; this is from the extra ticket sales that roll into Comscore overnight. Rivals firmly believe that we have the first $100M opener on hand for 2025’s domestic B.O., and Disney believes that as well. Global opening is at $192.4Mwhich is roughly $2M higher than where Nancy and I spotted it.

For a B- CinemaScore MCU movie — a $100M opening? We’ll take it. Very good job, Disney.

Box office stat firm EntTelligence says 5.7M people went to see Captain America: Brave New World over the 3-day ($88.5M) off average ticket prices of $15.17 (general) and $18.60 (general PDF). In regards to Saturday’s business, 51% of the crowd went to see Brave New World before 5PM.
Brave New World‘s opening is the fourth biggest Presidents Day weekend ever giving the MCU all four of the top openings: Black Panther ($242M), Deadpool ($152M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120M). Brave New World is the 35th consecutive Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to open at No. 1 at the domestic box office.

One thing that’s certain about Disney, even though this Captain America may not have been widely loved as other MCU movies, the studio knew they had a tentpole and spent on it. They didn’t underspend like some other studios might when they see a B- CinemaScore coming. iSpot shows that Disney spent around $22M in linear spot ads that pulled in 926M household TV impressions.

Sunday reported figures:

1.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 4,105 theaters, Fri $40M, Sat $27.5M Sun $21M Mon $11.5M3-day $88.5M, 4-day $100M/Wk 1

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Returns were stronger than expected

Let’s see how it holds?

 

[Disney Analyst]

The big tell will be next weekend. How big of a drop?