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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Agree…totally…the mass audience isn’t gonna want to be bothered with this dimensional shifting multiverse stuff for long. I’m surprised they’ve gotten this far


We’ve been through this before

Most of the more recognizable marvel characters outside of a comic book shop have been in the MCU

Marvelis more a collection of misfits that 5 backbone characters as DC was…

I think that’s what C and D means
And I'm surprised the masses have stuck with the Fast franchise, yet here we are 10 about to be 11 movies in. Just because some can’t see its appeal doesn’t mean it won’t appeal to the masses.

As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I think Avatar, Zootopia 2, F4, and Stitch will all be very profitable. A couple hundred million in profit each. (Taking into account Disney only distributes Avatar so they get a smaller cut of the profit, also on the assumption that Stitch has a lower end budget, $150m range, since I don’t think it’s been released).

I think Thunderbolts, Cap4, and Elio will make decent profits, somewhere around $100 million in profit each.

I think Tron and Freakier Friday are going to struggle a bit but should be in the break even range.

I think Snow White is going to lose a boatload, I just don’t see how it overcomes all the negativity, my guess is a loss iof $100-200 million.

$800-900 million profit off the first group, another $300 million in profit off the second group, a wash on the third, and minus $200 on the fourth… somewhere around $1 billion profit overall.

Agreed.

Though I feel not great for Elio, which is a shame. They are playing in that retro sci fi wheelhouse that just doesn’t seem to work ever for them in animated fare.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
And I'm surprised the masses have stuck with the Fast franchise, yet here we are 10 about to be 11 movies in. Just because some can’t see its appeal doesn’t mean it won’t appeal to the masses.

As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.

Just my opinion…but by far the DUMBEST franchise ever.

Just sheer stupidity without neurons firing

It makes Moonraker look like citizen kane…just my opinion


As far as marvel…I can remember what characters I knew/could recognize as a kid…long before fancy computing devices and digital on demand everything…
And they were the hulk, Spider-Man, Captain America, thing and to a lesser extent Thor…

So that’s what I consider the A list

The only baddies I can recall are Dr. Doom, the Goblin, doc oc and maybe red skull?
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Just my opinion…but by far the DUMBEST franchise ever.

Just sheer stupidity without neurons firing

It makes Moonraker look citizen kane…just my opinion


As far as marvel…I can remember what characters I knew/could recognize as a kid…long before fancy computing devices and digital on demand everything…
And they were the hulk, Spider-Man, Captain America, thing and to a lesser extent Thor…

So that’s what I consider the A list

The only baddies I can recall are Dr. Doom, the Goblin, doc oc and maybe red skull?
You knowing the characters doesn’t mean the masses did prior to the MCU. And that’s the point our own experiences need to be taken out of it, I’ve known every single character they introduced into the MCU and all the ones they have coming up, doesn’t mean I think that someone from the Midwest knows the same. So it’s the story the brings them in initially and it’s the characters that keep them coming back once they become attached to them. But they have to be introduced to them first in order to become attached to them. So the hope has been that the new characters being introduced are accepted, liked, and become an attachment to the masses. And in my opinion it’s been hit or miss, which is why I say we’ll see how it goes once Phase 6 ends in a couple years.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
I guess that's the difference between a filmmaker like James Cameron who knows what he's doing and plans his movies well in advance versus Marvel Studios hastily rushing a movie into production and then having to reshoot the movie multiple times to try to salvage a disaster.

This has been the MCU brand since the beginning, though, hasn't it? During production, Iron Man switched from having the Mandarin be the villain to a hastily/poorly written third act in which Jeff Bridges goes crazy for no good reason. Even the now famous "I am Iron Man" coda was more or less decided on the spot rather than something that was scripted/planned in advance. If you watch any of the special features on the DVD/Disney+, they'll talk about how they were racing the release date clock with VFX to the very end.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
As I mentioned the masses didn’t really know any of the core 5 outside of Hulk, just because they didn’t know them ahead of time doesn’t mean they can’t end up liking and being attached to them. So we’ll just have to see where it ends up in a couple years.
It’s worth remembering that they didn’t make billions as unknowns either.

The first Ironman was an absolute blockbuster and “only” made $580m (about $850m inflation adjusted).

The first Hulk bombed, it only made $260m ($380m adjusted).

The first Thor made $450m ($635m adjusted).

The first Cap $370m ($520 adjusted).

It wasn’t until the first Avengers movie the MCU actually broke $1b… and by that time all the characters were more or less universally known.

As I mentioned earlier I think the MCU expectations are unrealistically high now, a movie like Thor LaT, which made $750m, is now viewed as a bit of a box office failure.

I think the MCUs “problem” isn’t the unknown characters but the lack of a good villain. They need to find the next baddie to rally against and they’ll see those Bs again.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

SUNDAY AM: Refresh for chart and analysis… Marvel StudiosCaptain America: Brave New World came in slightly better on Saturday with $27.5M from what we saw last night; this is from the extra ticket sales that roll into Comscore overnight. Rivals firmly believe that we have the first $100M opener on hand for 2025’s domestic B.O., and Disney believes that as well. Global opening is at $192.4Mwhich is roughly $2M higher than where Nancy and I spotted it.

For a B- CinemaScore MCU movie — a $100M opening? We’ll take it. Very good job, Disney.

Box office stat firm EntTelligence says 5.7M people went to see Captain America: Brave New World over the 3-day ($88.5M) off average ticket prices of $15.17 (general) and $18.60 (general PDF). In regards to Saturday’s business, 51% of the crowd went to see Brave New World before 5PM.
Brave New World‘s opening is the fourth biggest Presidents Day weekend ever giving the MCU all four of the top openings: Black Panther ($242M), Deadpool ($152M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120M). Brave New World is the 35th consecutive Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to open at No. 1 at the domestic box office.

One thing that’s certain about Disney, even though this Captain America may not have been widely loved as other MCU movies, the studio knew they had a tentpole and spent on it. They didn’t underspend like some other studios might when they see a B- CinemaScore coming. iSpot shows that Disney spent around $22M in linear spot ads that pulled in 926M household TV impressions.

Sunday reported figures:

1.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 4,105 theaters, Fri $40M, Sat $27.5M Sun $21M Mon $11.5M3-day $88.5M, 4-day $100M/Wk 1
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
The big tell will be next weekend. How big of a drop?

This same 4-day long weekend in 2023, Ant Man 3 opened to $120 million and then collapsed after that on its way to a $214 million finish.

I think that may have been a then record 2nd weekend drop for an MCU movie. I don't think this will suffer as bad (it's benefitting from a lack of major competition) but its B- Cinemascore is unusually poor.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
It’s worth remembering that they didn’t make billions as unknowns either.

The first Ironman was an absolute blockbuster and “only” made $580m (about $850m inflation adjusted).

The first Hulk bombed, it only made $260m ($380m adjusted).

The first Thor made $450m ($635m adjusted).

The first Cap $370m ($520 adjusted).

It wasn’t until the first Avengers movie the MCU actually broke $1b… and by that time all the characters were more or less universally known.

As I mentioned earlier I think the MCU expectations are unrealistically high now, a movie like Thor LaT, which made $750m, is now viewed as a bit of a box office failure.

I think the MCUs “problem” isn’t the unknown characters but the lack of a good villain. They need to find the next baddie to rally against and they’ll see those Bs again.
I agree and have often said the MCU has set unrealistic expectations on people, unless it’s hitting $1B+ people see them as failures when they are not. So let’s see how this one turns out so far it’s doing fairly well.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Happy Presidents Day weekend, gang! 🇺🇸 Here's how the weekend box office looks through Sunday, although most folks still have tomorrow off for the 3 day weekend so we'll need to wait for Tuesday for the official tally of the entire holiday weekend.

Prez Sez....jpg


Please tell us what the dozen or so people on this forum are going to do to effect the nationwide change you want to see?

For the record, I've always had this forum at about two dozen folks actively posting/reacting.

It's a very small part of The Rage Network TM, but we punch way above our weight in deciding which movies to make flop at the global box office. With just a few posts here, I can make all of Mexico avoid Strange World, for example. :cool:

 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
For the record, I've always had this forum at about two dozen folks actively posting/reacting.
It varies, but I think there are about a dozen who are active, and maybe two dozen in total that float in here at various times to like or respond. But the point is still the same, I don't see what any of us here would do to impact the state of things beyond talking about it, which is why there is now a dedicated thread to use. And yet I don't see much interaction in there, showing that most if not almost all but a few don't really want to go on for page after page talking about it, especially within the content of the box office. As much of an important topic as it is, its too big for this forum.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
It varies, but I think there are about a dozen who are active, and maybe two dozen in total that float in here at various times to like or respond. But the point is still the same, I don't see what any of us here would do to impact the state of things beyond talking about it, which is why there is now a dedicated thread to use. And yet I don't see much interaction in there, showing that most if not almost all but a few don't really want to go on for page after page talking about it, especially within the content of the box office. As much of an important topic as it is, its too big for this forum.
I think the point is nothing we say matters…even though some are adamant the “anti Disney conspiracy” is bred here

Movies succeed or fail on their own merits/circumstances

With few exceptions…nothing good fails and nothing terrible succeeds
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think the point is nothing we say matters…even though some are adamant the “anti Disney conspiracy” is bred here

Movies succeed or fail on their own merits/circumstances

With few exceptions…nothing good fails and nothing terrible succeeds
I don't think anyone said or even tried to hint that the "anti-Disney" stuff is bred here. I think what has been said is that too many here buy into it, when they shouldn't.

As for the rest, that wasn't the topic being discussed but overall I don't disagree but I think some discount the effect that the outside world has on viewership too much, but I don't want to go down that rabbit hole again. So lets just move on from that.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
For those interested, here's how the opening weekend of Captain America compares to the previous five movies from Marvel. This is freshly cherry-picked data folks, so enjoy it! 🍒

This latest Captain America is in 5th place for opening weekends, ahead of The Marvels disastrous opening, but notably less than the other four movies Marvel has released in the past two years.

A Tale Of Capes.jpg


And here's what that domestic box office chart looks like in comparison. The line for Captain America is still buried down in the corner between Ant-Man and The Marvels, but it will be interesting to see what kind of trajectory it might have a week from now.

Stay tuned Marvel fans!

Graphs Are Very Powerful.jpg
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
For those interested, here's how the opening weekend of Captain America compares to the previous five movies from Marvel. This is freshly cherry-picked data folks, so enjoy it! 🍒

This latest Captain America is in 5th place for opening weekends, ahead of The Marvels disastrous opening, but notably less than the other four movies Marvel has released in the past two years.

View attachment 844672

And here's what that domestic box office chart looks like in comparison. The line for Captain America is still buried down in the corner with Ant-Man and The Marvels, but it will be interesting to see what kind of trajectory it might have a week from now.

Stay tuned Marvel fans!

View attachment 844673
And if I was to guess, and its just a guess, it'll land somewhere between Quantumania and Guardians domestic, and somewhere between Quantumania and Spider-Man for its WW.

So certainly not the best, but not the worst either, just in the middle. Which is what reviews show, and so guess the box office will reflect that as well.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
I saw Captain America….my expectations were low… but it was better than expected…. I was entertained… I would recommend anyone on the fence to give it a shot

The most surprising element was before the movie begun…. I was expecting trailers for both Thunderbolts and Fantastic Four… as the last 2 trailers are usually from the same studio of the movie I am screening…. And that seems what everyone else got…. There was no FF trailer….. instead the other one we got was The Amateur
 

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