Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

As we head into the weekend, I just need to pretty firmly state the comp here is Quantumania and pretty much only that film now.

Same weekend, same genre, same decade, same collapse? Or no. Everything in this films endpoint depends if it deviates or follows this weekend.

Over or under a 70% drop, stay tuned.

 

[Casper Gutman]

That film looked like a migraine to me.

Do you like Raimi films?

 

[Disney Irish]

As we head into the weekend, I just need to pretty firmly state the comp here is Quantumania and pretty much only that film now.

Same weekend, same genre, same decade, same collapse? Or no. Everything in this films endpoint depends if it deviates or follows this weekend.

Over or under a 70% drop, stay tuned.

What’s funny is that so far it had been tracking pretty close to the first Cap movie, so it’ll be interesting to see if it continues that over the weekend.

 

[Agent H]

What’s funny is that so far it had been tracking pretty close to the first Cap movie, so it’ll be interesting to see if it continues that over the weekend.

“history doesn’t repeat itself but often it rhymes”

 

[BrianLo]

What’s funny is that so far it had been tracking pretty close to the first Cap movie, so it’ll be interesting to see if it continues that over the weekend.

Prematurely getting in front of the Black Panther measuring stick.

That seems to be a good one. I assume this will be more front loaded than the original, the fanbase wasn’t quite the same. But ya, Cap 1 would definitely be painted a failure by this threads standards, wouldn’t it?

 

[Disney Irish]

Prematurely getting in front of the Black Panther measuring stick.

That seems to be a good one. I assume this will be more front loaded than the original, the fanbase wasn’t quite the same.

Understand, but thought it was important point to bring up as a comp.

But ya, Cap 1 would definitely be painted a failure by this threads standards, wouldn’t it?

Yep, its the unfortunately nature of how successful the MCU had been leading up to Endgame, it set unrealistic expectations and everything that doesn't measure up is now a "failure". People often forget that the solo movies were largely lower than all the team up movies, outside of ones like BP and Cap Marvel (forgive me if I forget one).

 

[Heppenheimer]

Do you like Raimi films?

Yes, but it barely felt like a Raimi film. Complete CGI overload. That Ant Man movie, what I saw of it, gave me a similar feel.

I actually saw The Quick and the Dead in theaters when it originally came out and loved it. I thought it seemed like a Sergio Leone film played at double speed. I didn't understand why it didn't do well (wrong era for a western?), but I'm glad to see that it has gained a following over the years.

 

[TalkingHead]

Yes, but it barely felt like a Raimi film. Complete CGI overload. That Ant Man movie, what I saw of it, gave me a similar feel.

I actually saw The Quick and the Dead in theaters when it originally came out and loved it. I thought it seemed like a Sergio Leone film played at double speed. I didn't understand why it didn't do well (wrong era for a western?), but I'm glad to see that it has gained a following over the years.

Agreed. Great cast and a lot of fun.

 

[DKampy]

Yes, but it barely felt like a Raimi film. Complete CGI overload. That Ant Man movie, what I saw of it, gave me a similar feel.

You are allowed to have a separate opinion. But hard disagree… I enjoyed Doctor Strange… as it felt more Rami then Marvel to me…. Quantumania is at their very bottom of Marvel films along with Thor 2 and The Eternals…. And probably even worse then those 2

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, but it barely felt like a Raimi film. Complete CGI overload. That Ant Man movie, what I saw of it, gave me a similar feel.

I actually saw The Quick and the Dead in theaters when it originally came out and loved it. I thought it seemed like a Sergio Leone film played at double speed. I didn't understand why it didn't do well (wrong era for a western?), but I'm glad to see that it has gained a following over the years.

What's funny is that out of all the comic book movies that Raimi has done, MoM was the closest to a Raimi styled movie than any of the others, that is just my opinion of course. Also you can't do a mulitverse hopping movie like this without a bunch of CGI, so Raimi or no Raimi that was always going to be a core of the visuals.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Illustrating that anecdotes don’t mean much: at 1 AMC up the road from the other AMC, more seats are sold tonight for the Monkey than for Captain America. The other one a few miles south on the same road, the opposite is true. The 8pm-ish is almost sold out, which is unusual around here, especially week 2.

 

[Agent H]

Illustrating that anecdotes don’t mean much: at 1 AMC up the road from the other AMC, more seats are sold tonight for the Monkey than for Captain America. The other one a few miles south on the same road, the opposite is true. The 8pm-ish is almost sold out, which is unusual around here, especially week 2.

I have a weird obsession with the monkey movie possibly because of some childhood trauma from Toy Story 3

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I have a weird obsession with the monkey movie possibly because of some childhood trauma from Toy Story 3

I need to know if it’s bloody and gross before I see it. I skip those.

 

[Agent H]

I need to know if it’s bloody and gross before I see it. I skip those.

I think it’s pretty clear it’s going to be gorey from the trailer

 

[DKampy]

I need to know if it’s bloody and gross before I see it. I skip those.

have not seen it yet…. I usually research horror as my wife would rather watch extreme Gore in movies at home… she does not like it if it’s too extreme…. Though The Substance is one of her favorites from last year…from what I readI The Monkey is very gory…. Almost crosses a line… but is made palatable because of the humor and cartoony nature of it

 

[Prince-1]

I need to know if it’s bloody and gross before I see it. I skip those.

It was very bloody and gory. It was also very funny. It may not be your cup of tea, but it was actually a very good movie.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Next up
Snow White: March 21st release date

Production Budget: The film’s gross production cost is confirmed at $269.4 million, with a $55.5 million tax rebate reducing the net cost to about $213.9 million

Advertising/Marketing Budget: While some reports suggest figures closer to $150 million, an assumption of $140 million is within range given similar Disney live‐action remakes.

Break-Even Point: Doubling the total cost to Disney (net production plus marketing, here $353.9 million) gives a break-even of approximately $708 million, which is consistent with the standard 50/50 split of box office revenue.

Box Office Projections: Using opening weekend scenarios of $65 million and $85 million with multipliers (domestic multiplier of 3.5 and international ratio of 1.9) yields end-of-run estimates of about $660 million and $863 million respectively.

Disney Reveals ‘Snow White’ Remake Is Set To Blow Its Budget

Disney has revealed that the cost of making its live action Snow White ballooned to $269.4 million by the end of 2023 putting it on course to blow its budget more than a year before release.

www.forbes.com

‘Snow White’ Hits Long-Lead Tracking: Will Live Action Take Of Disney Classic Whistle A Happy Tune? – Box Office Forecast

'Snow White' starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot looks to opening to $65M.

deadline.com

 

[TalkingHead]

According to reddit, re: Captain A4

The second weekend gross ranks 29th out of 35 MCU films, while the second weekend percentage drop ranks 33rd out of 35.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Next up
Snow White: March 21st release date

Production Budget: The film’s gross production cost is confirmed at $269.4 million, with a $55.5 million tax rebate reducing the net cost to about $213.9 million

Even using the basic 2.5 x production budget this needs around $550 million to break even, definitely possible if it has good word of mouth but I’ll be very surprised if it hits that number, I’m biased by all the negativity but I have insanely low expectations on this one, my guess is the $300-400 million range.

 

[BrianLo]

Break-Even Point: Doubling the total cost to Disney (net production plus marketing, here $353.9 million) gives a break-even of approximately $708 million, which is consistent with the standard 50/50 split of box office revenue.

535. I’ll budge if a legitimate source says otherwise, but it will probably be slightly lower if anything.

We’ve been over this far too often, but I guess I’m a broken record. 2.5X budget is a cautious estimate.