Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Can’t be proven thats what makes it such a great scheme. As I said, it’s amazing Wicked can be made for 145M and Mufasa cost 200M along with the many, many other Disney productions with bloated budgets.

Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.

I think there’s a very interesting discussion on franchises and tent poles… but this has been Iger’s strategy since like 2010. I can pull up posts predicting the wheels would come off dating back a decade ago with his lean + tentpole strategy. It’s very different than Eisner.

Is it a good strategy? Many have argued otherwise, but it has basically worked for 14 of 15 years now. Disney continues to rule the box office. Eisner’s singles and doubles fell apart on the other hand.

Very valid point. But wouldn't you have loved if the Internet and this thread existed 45 years ago during the Ron Miller era? I'd love to do the charts and posts on The Apple Dumping Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas, wouldn't you?!?

Yep. And the jokes really do just write themselves.

I'm jealous you had an Aunt Karen who complained at the drop of the hat. Was she at least kind of fun to discuss on the drive home from Thanksgiving?

My favorite aunt was Aunt Ingrid, who was a La Jolla housewife in the 1960's and 1970's who looked like a motherly Cheryl Tiegs (Google it, kids) and her hobby was driving up to LA and getting on game shows. She had a washer/dryer set she won on Gambit, and a big Frigidaire she bought with money she won on The Joker's Wild. During the summer of 1978 she went all in on the then-new idea of a summer season pass to Sea World, and somehow made it her life's mission to be picked out of the audience to go down to the tank to be kissed by Shamu. She went to Sea World several times per week that summer, and attended multiple Shamu shows per day during her visits. Finally, in mid August, she was picked to be kissed and got a Polaroid picture of herself being slurped on by the marine mammal, and the Polaroid immediately went on the Frigidaire from The Joker's Wild. For the next several years until she died, my grandmother swore to anyone who would listen that by mid August, Aunt Ingrid was getting desperate and she bribed the ushers at Shamu Stadium with $20 to pick her. It was the second biggest family scandal we had, and I loved it.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.



Very valid point. But wouldn't you have loved if the Internet and this thread existed 45 years ago during the Ron Miller era? I'd love to do the charts and posts on The Apple Dumping Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas, wouldn't you?!?



I'm jealous you had an Aunt Karen who complained at the drop of the hat. Was she at least kind of fun to discuss on the drive home from Thanksgiving?

My favorite aunt was Aunt Ingrid, who was a La Jolla housewife in the 1970's who looked like a motherly Cheryl Tiegs (Google it, kids) and her hobby was driving up to LA and getting on game shows. She had a washer/dryer set she won on Gambit, and a big Frigidaire she won on The Joker's Wild. During the summer of 1978 she bought into the then-new idea of a season pass to Sea World, and somehow made it her life's mission to be picked out of the audience to go down to the tank to be kissed by Shamu. She went to Sea World several times per week that summer, and attended multiple Shamu shows per day during her visits. Finally, in mid August, she was picked to be kissed and got a Polaroid picture of herself being slurped on by the marine mammal, and the Polaroid immediately went on the Frigidaire from The Joker's Wild. For the next several years until she died, my grandmother swore to anyone who would listen that by mid August, Aunt Ingrid was getting desperate and she bribed the ushers at Shamu Stadium with $20 to pick her. It was the second biggest family scandal we had, and I loved it.

I’m not believing Cap 4 cost $350M til we see the trades confirm it first.

The sources saying that (World of Reel) are known to lie and be biased in their reporting.

Let’s see what Variety, THR, and Deadline have to say.

I think at the very least, it’ll cost $200-$250M, since the reshoots only last three weeks, as shown on the reshoots cinematographer’s Instagram post, and because it didn’t cost as much as Multiverse of Madness or The Marvels.

 

[TP2000]

I’m not believing Cap 4 cost $350M til we see the trades confirm it first.

The sources saying that (World of Reel) are known to lie and be biased in their reporting.

Let’s see what Variety, THR, and Deadline have to say.

I agree, which is why I picked the current lowball number of $350 Million. Several online sources (when you Google it for 10 seconds, which is what a Hollywood industry expert like myself does around Midnight), put the final price tag after all the edits and reshoots between $375 and $400 Million.

But even me, a huge critic of Burbank bloat and waste, has a hard time believing they spent that much on it. So I went with the current lowball figure of $350 Million. I agree with you that it's prudent to wait until solid industry sources like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter weigh in with their more reputable reporting next month.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, let's do a recap of where we are at the box office going into the holiday weekend for Reverend King.

I'll be out of town this weekend for a few days in Las Vegas for two (2!) steak dinners and a night at the movies (The Last Showgirl, while I'm in Vegas. Get it?!?) and then I have to hurry home to host an Inauguration Day party where I promised the kids around the Cul De Sac that I would teach them how to Disco dance and do The Hustle so they could perform a production number for the party set to The Village People (I'm not making this up, and I think I found my calling in life; Gen Alpha Disco Lessons), so I probably won't be posting this weekend when....

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

Just not til either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

Moana 2 reaches the $1 Billion mark at the global box office!

Here's how Disney's three current films still in theaters from Thanksgiving/Christmas look today...

That's right, back in early December I didn't think Moana 2 would make it past $950 Million by mid January. But to his credit, @DisneyWarrior27 had faith. And it looks like it's going to finally happen this weekend. Congrats to DisneyWarrior27!

Now we just need to figure out what he wins? What's in the prize closet this time of year? Anyone have the key to the prize closet? If you are in Vegas this weekend @DisneyWarrior27 and are staying at Caesars Palace or anywhere near mid-strip, or can get anywhere near Caesars Palace, I'd be happy to buy you a drink!

He doesn't actually pay attention to anything, so don't worry about it, Moana will get to $1B it'll just be a matter of how much over $1B it'll go.

You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit.

 

[Disney Irish]

You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit.

Your quips aside, I stand by what I said. It didn't take a PhD in Applied Mathematics to see by the trends in early December that Moana 2 would hit $1B. As I mentioned back then it was just a matter of how much over $1B it would go, and by the looks of it it'll be just a bit over $1B by the time its done. So for as much as this is a hobby for any of us, some of us actually do pay a lot closer attention to this.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.

When the budgets are so high that a movie requires 850M at box office to break even, something is wrong in my opinion.

Snow White....... I am looking forward to seeing it when its "free" on streaming.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Okay gang, let's do a recap of where we are at the box office going into the holiday weekend for Reverend King.

I'll be out of town this weekend for a few days in Las Vegas for two (2!) steak dinners and a night at the movies (The Last Showgirl, while I'm in Vegas. Get it?!?) and then I have to hurry home to host an Inauguration Day party where I promised the kids around the Cul De Sac that I would teach them how to Disco dance and do The Hustle so they could perform a production number for the party set to The Village People (I'm not making this up, and I think I found my calling in life; Gen Alpha Disco Lessons), so I probably won't be posting this weekend when....



Moana 2 reaches the $1 Billion mark at the global box office!

Here's how Disney's three current films still in theaters from Thanksgiving/Christmas look today...

View attachment 837846

That's right, back in early December I didn't think Moana 2 would make it past $950 Million by mid January. But to his credit, @DisneyWarrior27 had faith. And it looks like it's going to finally happen this weekend. Congrats to DisneyWarrior27!

Now we just need to figure out what he wins? What's in the prize closet this time of year? Anyone have the key to the prize closet? If you are in Vegas this weekend @DisneyWarrior27 and are staying at Caesars Palace or anywhere near mid-strip, or can get anywhere near Caesars Palace, I'd be happy to buy you a drink!



You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit.

Sorry, TP2000. I’m currently poor and about to start a new job on Tuesday. I can’t meet you in Vegas.

 

[DKampy]

Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.

It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)

 

[Disstevefan1]

It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)

For me. there was no question that Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine were both were going to make money and there was no question I was going to like them and as it turned out they both made money and I liked them both as expected.

For me Captain America and Snow White are both questionable as to if they will make money and if I will like them.

For me, that is where the interest for these comes from.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Captain America: Brave New World - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Eyes $86M-$95M Opening Over Presidents’ Day Weekend: Box Office Early Look

Close to five weeks out, Disney Marvel's 'Captain America: Brave New World' is eyeing a $86M-$95M opening, and $110M over the Presidents Day weekend.

deadline.com

 

[BrianLo]

It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)

I believe he was on several Viking cruises during the summer/fall run as opposed to straight disinterested. There’s like five other posters I’ll actually levy criticism against when they come crawling back for Snow White only.

 

[BrianLo]

Captain America: Brave New World - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Eyes $86M-$95M Opening Over Presidents’ Day Weekend: Box Office Early Look

Close to five weeks out, Disney Marvel's 'Captain America: Brave New World' is eyeing a $86M-$95M opening, and $110M over the Presidents Day weekend.

deadline.com

This isn’t a disaster but it’s also not a hugely successful start either. I suspect we may see finals come in lower but maybe reviews will change its course.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

This isn’t a disaster but it’s also not a hugely successful start either. I suspect we may see finals come in lower but maybe reviews will change its course.

As a point of reference, Ant Man 3 made $120 million during the 2023 4-day Presidents Day weekend ($106 million 3-day).

 

[BrianLo]

As a point of reference, Ant Man 3 made $120 million during the 2023 4-day Presidents Day weekend ($106 million 3-day).

Totally. Quantumania had a great 4 day opening and spectacularly fell off a cliff.

The Marvels did 46 and totalled 84. Which is a good budgetary comp if what we are hearing about Captain America 4 pans out. Registering as one of Disney's biggest modern day bombs.

 

[DKampy]

Posters have mentioned one pays attention to critics anymore…. I sill think it does make a difference with some….not enough to swing i50 - 100 million…. But enough…. Wolf Man was projected to win the weekend…. But now it is expected to come in below the lowest of projections…I was really hyped for the movie myself after the fantastic Inbisible Man… My own expectations have now been lowered after the Tepid critic response…. Looks like Mufasa for the win with a better than expected hold… Now ever so closer to 600 million and passing Sonic domestically

The reviews seem to be having an opposite affect on One of Them Days which is now expected to come in above projections after a great critical response

I was hoping to see either The Last Showgirl or Sing Sing this weekend with awards buzz for Pamela Anderson and Coleman Domingo respectively…. But no such luck…. What strikes me as odd is BabyGirl is still at my local theater( despite Nicole Kidman’d awards chances have diminished)while Nosferatu is no longer being screened despite both opening on Christmas Day…. I guess the film must be performing better than most markets locally

 

[Disney Analyst]

Intriguing prediction.

 

[BrianLo]

Deadline upgraded Mufasa’s weekend a tad. Stellar holds continue. That’s another 0.5X turn on its opening.

Mufasa: The Lion King (Dis) 3,555 (-65) theaters, Fri $2.5M (-13%), 3-day $12.8M(-10%), 4-day $16.5M, Total $210.7M/Wk


Moana 2 is an excellent hold too.

Wicked is now 50% of Moana 2. Again, its terminal box office was hurt definitively by its early post theatrical strategy. But I continue to not know if Universal truly feels they made up the difference sufficiently. What they do with Wicked 2 will be affirmation.

 

[Tha Realest]

Captain America 4 may have cost $400M to make by some estimates. It’s marketing is everywhere, especially during the NFL and NCAA games. The last Captain America film made $1.1 billion. This one may lose money - a lot of money.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Captain America 4 may have cost $400M to make by some estimates. It’s marketing is everywhere, especially during the NFL and NCAA games. The last Captain America film made $1.1 billion. This one may lose money - a lot of money.

They should have just given us the $200M broken version.

 

[Tha Realest]

They should have just given us the $200M broken version.

It’s not a binary choice. But if it was, maybe Disney shouldn’t give $200 million to directors with a pretty mediocre filmography and no experience directing such a big project.