Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tony the Tigger]

re: Snow White. I don't know why they don't just write it off as a loss. Is it hubris? Save themselves the embarrassment.

There’s not good reason.

 

[BrianLo]

re: Snow White. I don't know why they don't just write it off as a loss. Is it hubris? Save themselves the embarrassment.

The industry eviscerated Zalev over this. Financially if pre/post theatrical is covering additional spend beyond production, they are generally getting ahead of an outright write off. It's a pretty bad business move unless you can stop a production a lot earlier.

I won't outright lie and say this movie has blockbuster potential, but it could recoup costs if the public likes it. We also have to acknowledge this is a global movie and most of the reason people really think it is going to fail (controversial statements from its lead) are going to be completely missed by the broader audience, let alone the International one.

I'm not trying to frame this as a total defence. More that I just think 500M on this production seems a lot more likely than 75-100M. Which is a benchmark it would need to undershoot to have been better written off.

 

[TP2000]

I find the dwarfs off-putting.

Me too. It was obviously a last-minute attempt to reframe and remake this movie. But it ends up looking... weird.

I imagine if Burbank could rewind itself to 2020, they would have just stuck with actual dwarves, or whatever the term is we're supposed to use now (the term "little people" has always seemed condescending to me since it arrived 25 or so years ago, while "dwarf" seems more medical/accurate in nature since they have the medical condition of dwarfism).

I think the best case they are hoping for is Mufasa and the worst scenario is The Marvels.

Interesting. I'll have to look into that more the next few days. As of now, here's a comparison on how those two scenarios would play out at the global box office compared to Snow White.

re: Snow White. I don't know why they don't just write it off as a loss. Is it hubris? Save themselves the embarrassment.

I imagine there was at least a few weeks in 2023 when they considered that; write it off, send it to Disney+ with a whimper, and pretend it all never happened. But for whatever reason, they doubled down and decided to send it back for reworks and make the dwarves into CGI creatures instead of Portland Hipsters, and now they're sort of stuck with it.

Like I said, I imagine the level of media scrutiny will reach epic levels about 60 days from now owing to Miss Zegler's past public statements. My hunch is that it will cross the line into unfairness, even to Miss Zegler, and it will be interesting to see how Burbank may try to head that off in advance.

That said, this is why you have Media Training for 20 year old starlets. And why you keep them on a short leash.

We also have to acknowledge this is a global movie and most of the reason people really think it is going to fail (controversial statements from its lead) are going to be completely missed by the broader audience, let alone the International one.

Very good point on the overseas market. Is Snow White a widely anticipated movie in Europe and Asia? I won't pretend to know that, as my Pop Culture pulsepoint is relegated to Halloween trick-or-treaters and a slow shopping cart pass by the toy aisle at my local Target. The most international relevance I'm exposed to lately is limited to whatever the pleasant and chatty Canadians are talking about in the Torshaven Lounge onboard a Viking cruise ship (local weather, nightly dinner menu, a funny thing a local said out loud on the last port call, etc.).

Wicked is an interesting recent comparison. It did very well in the USA, but did comparatively weak overseas. Is there a global understanding of who Snow White is, and why her story is so impactful for American pop culture when you get to the movie houses of Sydney or Stuttgart or Seoul?

That should be interesting. Without doing another chart this late at night (I'm still pooped after this past weekend! ), my sense is the live action Princess remakes of the past 15 years have mostly done well overseas, right?