Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

Posters have mentioned one pays attention to critics anymore…. I sill think it does make a difference with some….not enough to swing i50 - 100 million…. But enough…. Wolf Man was projected to win the weekend…. But now it is expected to come in below the lowest of projections…I was really hyped for the movie myself after the fantastic Inbisible Man… My own expectations have now been lowered after the Tepid critic response…. Looks like Mufasa for the win with a better than expected hold… Now ever so closer to 600 million and passing Sonic domestically

The reviews seem to be having an opposite affect on One of Them Days which is now expected to come in above projections after a great critical response

I was hoping to see either The Last Showgirl or Sing Sing this weekend with awards buzz for Pamela Anderson and Coleman Domingo respectively…. But no such luck…. What strikes me as odd is BabyGirl is still at my local theater( despite Nicole Kidman’d awards chances have diminished)while Nosferatu is no longer being screened despite both opening on Christmas Day…. I guess the film must be performing better than most markets locally

 

[Disney Analyst]

Intriguing prediction.

 

[BrianLo]

Deadline upgraded Mufasa’s weekend a tad. Stellar holds continue. That’s another 0.5X turn on its opening.

Mufasa: The Lion King (Dis) 3,555 (-65) theaters, Fri $2.5M (-13%), 3-day $12.8M(-10%), 4-day $16.5M, Total $210.7M/Wk


Moana 2 is an excellent hold too.

Wicked is now 50% of Moana 2. Again, its terminal box office was hurt definitively by its early post theatrical strategy. But I continue to not know if Universal truly feels they made up the difference sufficiently. What they do with Wicked 2 will be affirmation.

 

[Tha Realest]

Captain America 4 may have cost $400M to make by some estimates. It’s marketing is everywhere, especially during the NFL and NCAA games. The last Captain America film made $1.1 billion. This one may lose money - a lot of money.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Captain America 4 may have cost $400M to make by some estimates. It’s marketing is everywhere, especially during the NFL and NCAA games. The last Captain America film made $1.1 billion. This one may lose money - a lot of money.

They should have just given us the $200M broken version.

 

[Tha Realest]

They should have just given us the $200M broken version.

It’s not a binary choice. But if it was, maybe Disney shouldn’t give $200 million to directors with a pretty mediocre filmography and no experience directing such a big project.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[BrianLo]

A few more stops to go. It will become WDAS’ third highest grossing film ever as it passes Zootopia in the next couple weeks. Then we’ll see where it settles into the top 50 all time.

The craziest statistic is Disney has 32 / 56 (1B+) movies at the box office. It has been an unprecedented run for them and 2024 was an above average year adding three.

We’re hoping to see three again this year… for sure for sure one, I can’t imagine the wheels come off Avatar that much.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

As of today, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ #Moana2 has officially hit $1 billion worldwide. The third Disney film of 2024 to hit a billion this year (after Pixar’s #InsideOut2 & Marvel Studios’ #DeadpoolAndWolverine). That means the top 3 global earners of 2024 are not only billion dollar hits, but Disney movies too.

And also, #Moana2 making this much means 2 things:

1. That Disney might have some faith in diverse movies at the box office (ones that are female-led & starring folks of color), since this one’s lead character was voiced by a BI-WOC and one of its three directors and two writers who worked on this movie was a woman (Dana Ledoux Miller), especially in the wake of past and recent events have put Pixar’s next original stories on the edge.

And 2. That the possibilities are now open for any Disney+ series in development to maybe go into production as a movie. The only question is which one is going to be next in the pipeline? #TheMandalorianAndGroguAStarWarsStory and #Bluey’s movie are already in post-production and pre-production for theatrical releases in 2026 and 2027. Marvel Studios’ #ArmorWars is also still being written for theatrical release after The Multiverse Saga ends (at least for now). So, what’s next? It won’t be #Tiana. But what could be next? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

 

[BrianLo]

And 2. That the possibilities are now open for any Disney+ series in development to maybe go into production as a movie. The only question is which one is going to be next in the pipeline? #TheMandalorianAndGroguAStarWarsStory and #Bluey’s movie are already in post-production and pre-production for theatrical releases in 2026 and 2027. Marvel Studios’ #ArmorWars is also still being written for theatrical release after The Multiverse Saga ends (at least for now). So, what’s next? It won’t be #Tiana. But what could be next? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

I think the leadership has changed such that there isn’t a ton of things to pluck anymore that didn’t overtly have theatrical potential all along. In the sense I doubt we’ll see them approve a Coco series to later push it theatrically, they’ll just start theatrical and work backwards.

But I think we’ll generally stop seeing so many made for streaming movies out of Disney. Alien: Romulus was also a good pivot, but Haunted Mansion was not. One or two future live action D+ bound remakes that are hard to say if they’ve stalled out would be ok candidates. Maybe Hocus Pocus 3 for a specialty type run.

As for existing TV characters making the big screen jump, probably Ahsoka given the political will and who is In charge now. Thrawn has enough potential to bring back the whole crew (maybe even luke) for an Avengers style getting the gang together.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

As for existing TV characters making the big screen jump, probably Ahsoka given the political will and who is In charge now. Thrawn has enough potential to bring back the whole crew (maybe even luke) for an Avengers style getting the gang together.

That might hinge on how The Mandalorian and Grogu does at the box office with a budget of $120-$166M and the type of reviews it gets.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

1. That Disney might have some faith in diverse movies at the box office (ones that are female-led & starring folks of color), since this one’s lead character was voiced by a BI-WOC and one of its three directors and two writers who worked on this movie was a woman (Dana Ledoux Miller), especially in the wake of past and recent events have put Pixar’s next original stories on the edge.

Female led movies have been the foundation of the Disney company since the beginning. Disney has been know for Princess movies since the 1930s, and they began transitioning into more diverse leads nearly 40 years ago with Aladdin, Pocahontas, Mulan, Lilo, etc.

I think all this shows is good stories still sell, give us a good story and no one cares if the lead is male/female, white/black/asian/etc… the story is all that really matters.

 

[BrianLo]

That might hinge on how The Mandalorian and Grogu does at the box office with a budget of $120-$166M and the type of reviews it gets.

That’s a super lean theatrical budget for Disney. Honestly, I have good feelings knowing that. If they can play in that budgetary wheelhouse, I feel like Filoni/Favreau is getting a free pass to run wild with the deeper cuts.

 

[BrianLo]

Female led movies have been the foundation of the Disney company since the beginning. Disney has been know for Princess movies since the 1930s, and they began transitioning into more diverse leads nearly 40 years ago with Aladdin, Pocahontas, Mulan, Lilo, etc.

I think all this shows is good stories still sell, give us a good story and no one cares if the lead is male/female, white/black/asian/etc… the story is all that really matters.

There has been a notable pivot in the ceiling on some of these movies. Female audience appealing movies, family movies, musicals have been breaking through those assumed barriers as we are simultaneously seeing a significant pull back on male orientated action films performance. Gladiator 2, Fall Guy, Transformers 1, Furiosa, Joker 2 were pretty notable misses that used to be sure things. Ya, some was quality, but some wasn’t.

Barbie wasn’t a fluke though. Of course Disney is exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of that. One area I’ve noted a huge shift in the last 25 years is books. The fantasy genre is absolutely not a male-centric genre anymore. We’re going to see those trends eventually catch up to other media.


But on the variety front, I’d love to see another Prince Musical out of Disney. I guess we sort of had Coco from Pixar. But the next original fairytale really needs to be a Prince.

 

[Ghost93]

It’s not a binary choice. But if it was, maybe Disney shouldn’t give $200 million to directors with a pretty mediocre filmography and no experience directing such a big project.

In the MCU's early days they gave their projects to directors with a little bit more experience (Kenneth Branaugh, Jon Favreau, Joe Johnston, Joss Wedon, etc.). But that was when the MCU was still establishing its identity.


I think they purposely pick relatively newbie directors, or directors who have only done small projects so that they can more easily control them. They don't want the director's vision to clash with Kevin Feige's overall vision for the MCU. Unfortunately, this can often lead to bland filmmaking.

I think Ryan Coogler, Chloe Zhao, Sam Rami and James Gunn managed to leave enough of their trademark styles on the MCU movies they made (regardless of whether the end result was great or not), but many MCU projects feel like they have no unique artistic stamp on them.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

In the MCU's early days they gave their projects to directors with a little bit more experience (Kenneth Branaugh, Jon Favreau, Joe Johnston, Joss Wedon, etc.). But that was when the MCU was still establishing its identity.


I think they purposely pick relatively newbie directors, or directors who have only done small projects so that they can more easily control them. They don't want the director's vision to clash with Kevin Feige's overall vision for the MCU. Unfortunately, this can often lead to bland filmmaking.

I think Ryan Coogler, Chloe Zhao, Sam Rami and James Gunn managed to leave enough of their trademark styles on the MCU movies they made (regardless of whether the end result was great or not), but many MCU projects feel like they have no unique artistic stamp on them.

It’ll be interesting to see if Jake Schreier and Matt Shakman can do the same with Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic 4: First Steps.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Mufasa is the holiday #1 champ - Christmas, New Year’s Day, and MLK Day, a month after release.

If only it had legs.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Without blood in the water, some of the sharks have disappeared...

 

[CinematicFusion]

Without blood in the water, some of the sharks have disappeared...

Nothing to complain about.
Disney had a solid year with a strong lineup of releases and strategic moves. Young Woman and the Sea was one of the better flicks on Disney+.

The decision to merge Hulu, ESPN, and Disney+ into a single platform was a smart play.

1. Inside Out 2

2. Moana 2

3. Mufasa: The Lion King (a fresh origin story, not a remake)

4. Deadpool & Wolverine

5. Alien: Romulus

• Budget: $80M production + $40–80M marketing = $120–160M total.

• Box Office: $350M globally.

• Break-even: ~$240–400M (after theater cuts).

• Profit: Estimated $150–190M.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Mufasa is the holiday #1 champ - Christmas, New Year’s Day, and MLK Day, a month after release.

If only it had legs.

And still fighting to break even on a backdoor cover

Did you forget to google quote how the box office was so weak this past weekend they wrote stories about it?

Without blood in the water, some of the sharks have disappeared...

What are you complainibg about now?