Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

brideck

Well-Known Member
I thought that was the perfect correction, admission, concession, profession of my wrong view. Oh well.

The issue is that statements like "I am wrong and everyone else is right" don't connote any sort of sincerity.

Reading the last page of this thread is like trying to have a conversation with my Aunt Karen -- she has an inability to actually talk about something without just playing hurt and running away at the first sign of disagreement.
 

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
The issue is that statements like "I am wrong and everyone else is right" don't connote any sort of sincerity.

Reading the last page of this thread is like trying to have a conversation with my Aunt Karen -- she has an inability to actually talk about something without just playing hurt and running away at the first sign of disagreement.
Wait a minute. Your aunt name is Karen?
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
The issue is that statements like "I am wrong and everyone else is right" don't connote any sort of sincerity.

Reading the last page of this thread is like trying to have a conversation with my Aunt Karen -- she has an inability to actually talk about something without just playing hurt and running away at the first sign of disagreement.
Thank you for your comment.

I did not run away at the first sign of disagreement. You need to drill back many, many pages and I stated my view over and over and over. Please drill back and you will see.

In the end, yes I did surrender 🏳️ 🏳️ I did not run away. I faced my opposition and conceded as my view apparently was not the consensus view and as posters said I had no receipts, just a feeling.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
Forget that I liked Wicked, forget its a Universal movie, consider the the sets, the costuming, the props, all the talented players, the detail everywhere, there is a LOT there. I just ASSUMED it cost a lot to make. When it cost significantly less than, for example, Mufasa I was surprised.

I'm going to go back to here because there is a potentially interesting point here. Disney has, for better or worse, pretty much become a production house that cranks out films full of VFX and that decision coupled with the rapid pace of production comes at a cost... both in higher budgets and in the ability to create something that truly stands out visually.

Only 14 of the 34 MCU films to date have been nominated for VFX Oscars (despite how many effects shots are in them), and none of them have won. Since 2008, only The Jungle Book has taken home that crown for Disney, and it truly was innovative at the time. In total, Disney has had 23 nominations in the category since 2008.

Contrast that with Production Design, which is for physical sets/props and overall look and feel. In the same time period, Disney has only had five nominations total in this category. Both Alice in Wonderland and Black Panther (the only MCU movie to receive a nod in this category) took home the trophy.

[Note: I am intentionally excluding the Avatar movies from the above counts as they are not Disney productions.]

It seems to me that Disney (for its live-action stuff) rarely strives to wow an audience with the way that a movie looks. They shoot for the okay plateau, and when they hit it, it's good enough to rake it in from the masses, provided its part of a franchise that folks care enough about.

To be honest, with the MCU in particular, despite there being a lot of opportunity there to create really interesting looking movies, I don't think their production strategy lends itself to that. It's hard to construct a great look and feel (much less physical sets) when you're still writing/tweaking the story while shooting. The VFX houses are notoriously run ragged by the time pressures on these movies. If you think about the movies from the last 10 years that really look great, they all had well-defined visions crafted before all of the actors were assembled.
 
Last edited:

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Can’t be proven thats what makes it such a great scheme. As I said, it’s amazing Wicked can be made for 145M and Mufasa cost 200M along with the many, many other Disney productions with bloated budgets.

Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.

I think there’s a very interesting discussion on franchises and tent poles… but this has been Iger’s strategy since like 2010. I can pull up posts predicting the wheels would come off dating back a decade ago with his lean + tentpole strategy. It’s very different than Eisner.

Is it a good strategy? Many have argued otherwise, but it has basically worked for 14 of 15 years now. Disney continues to rule the box office. Eisner’s singles and doubles fell apart on the other hand.

Very valid point. But wouldn't you have loved if the Internet and this thread existed 45 years ago during the Ron Miller era? I'd love to do the charts and posts on The Apple Dumping Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas, wouldn't you?!? 🤣

Yep. And the jokes really do just write themselves.

I'm jealous you had an Aunt Karen who complained at the drop of the hat. Was she at least kind of fun to discuss on the drive home from Thanksgiving?

My favorite aunt was Aunt Ingrid, who was a La Jolla housewife in the 1960's and 1970's who looked like a motherly Cheryl Tiegs (Google it, kids) and her hobby was driving up to LA and getting on game shows. She had a washer/dryer set she won on Gambit, and a big Frigidaire she bought with money she won on The Joker's Wild. During the summer of 1978 she went all in on the then-new idea of a summer season pass to Sea World, and somehow made it her life's mission to be picked out of the audience to go down to the tank to be kissed by Shamu. She went to Sea World several times per week that summer, and attended multiple Shamu shows per day during her visits. Finally, in mid August, she was picked to be kissed and got a Polaroid picture of herself being slurped on by the marine mammal, and the Polaroid immediately went on the Frigidaire from The Joker's Wild. For the next several years until she died, my grandmother swore to anyone who would listen that by mid August, Aunt Ingrid was getting desperate and she bribed the ushers at Shamu Stadium with $20 to pick her. It was the second biggest family scandal we had, and I loved it.
 
Last edited:

DisneyWarrior27

Active Member
Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.



Very valid point. But wouldn't you have loved if the Internet and this thread existed 45 years ago during the Ron Miller era? I'd love to do the charts and posts on The Apple Dumping Gang and Herbie Goes Bananas, wouldn't you?!? 🤣



I'm jealous you had an Aunt Karen who complained at the drop of the hat. Was she at least kind of fun to discuss on the drive home from Thanksgiving?

My favorite aunt was Aunt Ingrid, who was a La Jolla housewife in the 1970's who looked like a motherly Cheryl Tiegs (Google it, kids) and her hobby was driving up to LA and getting on game shows. She had a washer/dryer set she won on Gambit, and a big Frigidaire she won on The Joker's Wild. During the summer of 1978 she bought into the then-new idea of a season pass to Sea World, and somehow made it her life's mission to be picked out of the audience to go down to the tank to be kissed by Shamu. She went to Sea World several times per week that summer, and attended multiple Shamu shows per day during her visits. Finally, in mid August, she was picked to be kissed and got a Polaroid picture of herself being slurped on by the marine mammal, and the Polaroid immediately went on the Frigidaire from The Joker's Wild. For the next several years until she died, my grandmother swore to anyone who would listen that by mid August, Aunt Ingrid was getting desperate and she bribed the ushers at Shamu Stadium with $20 to pick her. It was the second biggest family scandal we had, and I loved it.
I’m not believing Cap 4 cost $350M til we see the trades confirm it first.

The sources saying that (World of Reel) are known to lie and be biased in their reporting.

Let’s see what Variety, THR, and Deadline have to say.

I think at the very least, it’ll cost $200-$250M, since the reshoots only last three weeks, as shown on the reshoots cinematographer’s Instagram post, and because it didn’t cost as much as Multiverse of Madness or The Marvels.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I’m not believing Cap 4 cost $350M til we see the trades confirm it first.

The sources saying that (World of Reel) are known to lie and be biased in their reporting.

Let’s see what Variety, THR, and Deadline have to say.

I agree, which is why I picked the current lowball number of $350 Million. Several online sources (when you Google it for 10 seconds, which is what a Hollywood industry expert like myself does around Midnight), put the final price tag after all the edits and reshoots between $375 and $400 Million.

But even me, a huge critic of Burbank bloat and waste, has a hard time believing they spent that much on it. So I went with the current lowball figure of $350 Million. I agree with you that it's prudent to wait until solid industry sources like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter weigh in with their more reputable reporting next month.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Okay gang, let's do a recap of where we are at the box office going into the holiday weekend for Reverend King.

I'll be out of town this weekend for a few days in Las Vegas for two (2!) steak dinners and a night at the movies (The Last Showgirl, while I'm in Vegas. Get it?!?) and then I have to hurry home to host an Inauguration Day party where I promised the kids around the Cul De Sac that I would teach them how to Disco dance and do The Hustle so they could perform a production number for the party set to The Village People (I'm not making this up, and I think I found my calling in life; Gen Alpha Disco Lessons), so I probably won't be posting this weekend when....

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

Just not til either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

Moana 2 reaches the $1 Billion mark at the global box office! 🥳

Here's how Disney's three current films still in theaters from Thanksgiving/Christmas look today...

Reverend King Didn't Dream About This....jpg


That's right, back in early December I didn't think Moana 2 would make it past $950 Million by mid January. But to his credit, @DisneyWarrior27 had faith. And it looks like it's going to finally happen this weekend. Congrats to DisneyWarrior27!

Now we just need to figure out what he wins? What's in the prize closet this time of year? Anyone have the key to the prize closet? If you are in Vegas this weekend @DisneyWarrior27 and are staying at Caesars Palace or anywhere near mid-strip, or can get anywhere near Caesars Palace, I'd be happy to buy you a drink! 🍸

He doesn't actually pay attention to anything, so don't worry about it, Moana will get to $1B it'll just be a matter of how much over $1B it'll go.

You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit. :)
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit. :)
Your quips aside, I stand by what I said. It didn't take a PhD in Applied Mathematics to see by the trends in early December that Moana 2 would hit $1B. As I mentioned back then it was just a matter of how much over $1B it would go, and by the looks of it it'll be just a bit over $1B by the time its done. So for as much as this is a hobby for any of us, some of us actually do pay a lot closer attention to this.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.
When the budgets are so high that a movie requires 850M at box office to break even, something is wrong in my opinion.

Snow White....... I am looking forward to seeing it when its "free" on streaming.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Active Member
Okay gang, let's do a recap of where we are at the box office going into the holiday weekend for Reverend King.

I'll be out of town this weekend for a few days in Las Vegas for two (2!) steak dinners and a night at the movies (The Last Showgirl, while I'm in Vegas. Get it?!?) and then I have to hurry home to host an Inauguration Day party where I promised the kids around the Cul De Sac that I would teach them how to Disco dance and do The Hustle so they could perform a production number for the party set to The Village People (I'm not making this up, and I think I found my calling in life; Gen Alpha Disco Lessons), so I probably won't be posting this weekend when....



Moana 2 reaches the $1 Billion mark at the global box office! 🥳

Here's how Disney's three current films still in theaters from Thanksgiving/Christmas look today...

View attachment 837846

That's right, back in early December I didn't think Moana 2 would make it past $950 Million by mid January. But to his credit, @DisneyWarrior27 had faith. And it looks like it's going to finally happen this weekend. Congrats to DisneyWarrior27!

Now we just need to figure out what he wins? What's in the prize closet this time of year? Anyone have the key to the prize closet? If you are in Vegas this weekend @DisneyWarrior27 and are staying at Caesars Palace or anywhere near mid-strip, or can get anywhere near Caesars Palace, I'd be happy to buy you a drink! 🍸



You know, it's true. I don't pay attention to anything. I just randomly flop my hands over the keyboard and then hit "Send" and see what happens. It's been kind of a fun hobby these past 29 years, I do admit. :)
Sorry, TP2000. I’m currently poor and about to start a new job on Tuesday. I can’t meet you in Vegas.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Just wait. When I was doing my exhaustive "What's Next For 2025?" online research earlier, I learned that the next Captain America movie from Marvel this February cost (at minimum) $350 Million to produce. With a shoestring marketing budget of only $75 Million, that means it's going to need $850 Million at the global box office to break even.

February and March (Snow White) are going to be interesting in this thread.
It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)
For me. there was no question that Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine were both were going to make money and there was no question I was going to like them and as it turned out they both made money and I liked them both as expected.

For me Captain America and Snow White are both questionable as to if they will make money and if I will like them.

For me, that is where the interest for these comes from.
 
Last edited:

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
It is “ interesting” to me that you(a purported)Disney fan has interest in the box office for films you suspect will not make profit theatrically, but had none for Inside out 2(top grossing animated) or Deadpool and Wolverine (top grossing Rated R)

I believe he was on several Viking cruises during the summer/fall run as opposed to straight disinterested. There’s like five other posters I’ll actually levy criticism against when they come crawling back for Snow White only.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member


This isn’t a disaster but it’s also not a hugely successful start either. I suspect we may see finals come in lower but maybe reviews will change its course.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
As a point of reference, Ant Man 3 made $120 million during the 2023 4-day Presidents Day weekend ($106 million 3-day).

Totally. Quantumania had a great 4 day opening and spectacularly fell off a cliff.

The Marvels did 46 and totalled 84. Which is a good budgetary comp if what we are hearing about Captain America 4 pans out. Registering as one of Disney's biggest modern day bombs.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom