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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
A few more stops to go. It will become WDAS’ third highest grossing film ever as it passes Zootopia in the next couple weeks. Then we’ll see where it settles into the top 50 all time.
The craziest statistic is Disney has 32 / 56 (1B+) movies at the box office. It has been an unprecedented run for them and 2024 was an above average year adding three.
We’re hoping to see three again this year… for sure for sure one, I can’t imagine the wheels come off Avatar that much.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
As of today, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ #Moana2 has officially hit $1 billion worldwide. The third Disney film of 2024 to hit a billion this year (after Pixar’s #InsideOut2 & Marvel Studios’ #DeadpoolAndWolverine). That means the top 3 global earners of 2024 are not only billion dollar hits, but Disney movies too.
And also, #Moana2 making this much means 2 things:
1. That Disney might have some faith in diverse movies at the box office (ones that are female-led & starring folks of color), since this one’s lead character was voiced by a BI-WOC and one of its three directors and two writers who worked on this movie was a woman (Dana Ledoux Miller), especially in the wake of past and recent events have put Pixar’s next original stories on the edge.
And 2. That the possibilities are now open for any Disney+ series in development to maybe go into production as a movie. The only question is which one is going to be next in the pipeline? #TheMandalorianAndGroguAStarWarsStory and #Bluey’s movie are already in post-production and pre-production for theatrical releases in 2026 and 2027. Marvel Studios’ #ArmorWars is also still being written for theatrical release after The Multiverse Saga ends (at least for now). So, what’s next? It won’t be #Tiana. But what could be next? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
And also, #Moana2 making this much means 2 things:
1. That Disney might have some faith in diverse movies at the box office (ones that are female-led & starring folks of color), since this one’s lead character was voiced by a BI-WOC and one of its three directors and two writers who worked on this movie was a woman (Dana Ledoux Miller), especially in the wake of past and recent events have put Pixar’s next original stories on the edge.
And 2. That the possibilities are now open for any Disney+ series in development to maybe go into production as a movie. The only question is which one is going to be next in the pipeline? #TheMandalorianAndGroguAStarWarsStory and #Bluey’s movie are already in post-production and pre-production for theatrical releases in 2026 and 2027. Marvel Studios’ #ArmorWars is also still being written for theatrical release after The Multiverse Saga ends (at least for now). So, what’s next? It won’t be #Tiana. But what could be next? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I think the leadership has changed such that there isn’t a ton of things to pluck anymore that didn’t overtly have theatrical potential all along. In the sense I doubt we’ll see them approve a Coco series to later push it theatrically, they’ll just start theatrical and work backwards.
But I think we’ll generally stop seeing so many made for streaming movies out of Disney. Alien: Romulus was also a good pivot, but Haunted Mansion was not. One or two future live action D+ bound remakes that are hard to say if they’ve stalled out would be ok candidates. Maybe Hocus Pocus 3 for a specialty type run.
As for existing TV characters making the big screen jump, probably Ahsoka given the political will and who is In charge now. Thrawn has enough potential to bring back the whole crew (maybe even luke) for an Avengers style getting the gang together.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
That might hinge on how The Mandalorian and Grogu does at the box office with a budget of $120-$166M and the type of reviews it gets.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Female led movies have been the foundation of the Disney company since the beginning. Disney has been know for Princess movies since the 1930s, and they began transitioning into more diverse leads nearly 40 years ago with Aladdin, Pocahontas, Mulan, Lilo, etc.
I think all this shows is good stories still sell, give us a good story and no one cares if the lead is male/female, white/black/asian/etc… the story is all that really matters.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
That’s a super lean theatrical budget for Disney. Honestly, I have good feelings knowing that. If they can play in that budgetary wheelhouse, I feel like Filoni/Favreau is getting a free pass to run wild with the deeper cuts.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
There has been a notable pivot in the ceiling on some of these movies. Female audience appealing movies, family movies, musicals have been breaking through those assumed barriers as we are simultaneously seeing a significant pull back on male orientated action films performance. Gladiator 2, Fall Guy, Transformers 1, Furiosa, Joker 2 were pretty notable misses that used to be sure things. Ya, some was quality, but some wasn’t.
Barbie wasn’t a fluke though. Of course Disney is exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of that. One area I’ve noted a huge shift in the last 25 years is books. The fantasy genre is absolutely not a male-centric genre anymore. We’re going to see those trends eventually catch up to other media.
But on the variety front, I’d love to see another Prince Musical out of Disney. I guess we sort of had Coco from Pixar. But the next original fairytale really needs to be a Prince.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
In the MCU's early days they gave their projects to directors with a little bit more experience (Kenneth Branaugh, Jon Favreau, Joe Johnston, Joss Wedon, etc.). But that was when the MCU was still establishing its identity.
I think they purposely pick relatively newbie directors, or directors who have only done small projects so that they can more easily control them. They don't want the director's vision to clash with Kevin Feige's overall vision for the MCU. Unfortunately, this can often lead to bland filmmaking.
I think Ryan Coogler, Chloe Zhao, Sam Rami and James Gunn managed to leave enough of their trademark styles on the MCU movies they made (regardless of whether the end result was great or not), but many MCU projects feel like they have no unique artistic stamp on them.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
It’ll be interesting to see if Jake Schreier and Matt Shakman can do the same with Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic 4: First Steps.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Mufasa is the holiday #1 champ - Christmas, New Year’s Day, and MLK Day, a month after release.
If only it had legs.
If only it had legs.
Without blood in the water, some of the sharks have disappeared...
CinematicFusion
Well-Known Member
Nothing to complain about.
Disney had a solid year with a strong lineup of releases and strategic moves. Young Woman and the Sea was one of the better flicks on Disney+.
The decision to merge Hulu, ESPN, and Disney+ into a single platform was a smart play.
1. Inside Out 2
2. Moana 2
3. Mufasa: The Lion King (a fresh origin story, not a remake)
4. Deadpool & Wolverine
5. Alien: Romulus
• Budget: $80M production + $40–80M marketing = $120–160M total.
• Box Office: $350M globally.
• Break-even: ~$240–400M (after theater cuts).
• Profit: Estimated $150–190M.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
And still fighting to break even on a backdoor coverMufasa is the holiday #1 champ - Christmas, New Year’s Day, and MLK Day, a month after release.
If only it had legs.
Did you forget to google quote how the box office was so weak this past weekend they wrote stories about it?
What are you complainibg about now?
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
P.S. saw Gladiator II last night, right after rewatching the original at home. It was decent. They tied the two together credibly. Maybe a bit too much repetition/echo. My biggest issues were the lame extras not acting very enthused 
and, of course, CGI animals. Oh, and people talking as if giant crowds can hear them. But it was worth watching if you like the first one.
and, of course, CGI animals. Oh, and people talking as if giant crowds can hear them. But it was worth watching if you like the first one.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Yes, but did it breakeven with its almost $300M budget?P.S. saw Gladiator II last night, right after rewatching the original at home. It was decent. They tied the two together credibly. Maybe a bit too much repetition/echo. My biggest issues were the lame extras not acting very enthused
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Don't worry, you seem like a good, level-headed young man and as you keep working, the poor thing will come to an end. I was there too when I was your age, but in my day we had to live off Swanson TV dinners, and now I understand the young folks eat much better/healthier even when they're scrimping.
I must confess I forgot about this thread this weekend for several days, so much other exciting news to talk about and hash over with friends/family, but I did think of this thread and you when the lights dimmed for The Last Showgirl, in a Las Vegas theater full of a very appreciative local audience. I swear some of the folks behind us were retired showgirls and showboys themselves! I tipped my box of peanut M&M's your way, and again congratulations on accurately predicting Moana would get to the $1 Billion mark by MLK Jr. Weekend. I just didn't see it having that trajectory, but I was wrong on that by at least $12 Million!
Here's the final tally on Moana, for those keeping score at home...
Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic $267, Overseas $227 = $269 Million and counting
I included those two in the 2024 box office recap. But you are right, I was not on these boards much at all this past summer. I didn't realize I had missed a shift. I'm positive my vacation time was approved by the manager and payroll.
There's still a few major threads over in the Disneyland forum that I just abandoned because I was so far behind by September. At some point, you just can't keep up.
Thanks.
I have one trip left to Japan in '25, and then all the trips/vacations that were all postponed and re-scheduled and postponed again from 2020-2022 will have been taken. That said, I'm really enjoying Viking, and the people who join me there, and am doing more Viking cruises on both rivers and oceans. Viking has that stylish elegance that Disneyland used to have down pat; the vibe of doing something special with an operation that weaves storytelling into it all and serves it up with grace and elegance and a visually unique style.Disneyland had that vibe in spades, WDW to a lesser extent, even as recently as the 2010's. Viking nails it.
I'd be interested to hear your take on Snow White's box office prospects? Also, the rewrites and rework of 2023-2024 had to have busted the production budget. Think it's north of $300 Million in production now? Or did it only go from $200 Million in 2022 to $250 Million now?
After the events of the past 90 days here in the USA, and with the Internet being forever and now in stunning 4K, I can only imagine how much vodka and funny gummy candies the Burbank kids working on the Snow White media/marketing campaign are going through right now.
I don't envy them. If it was Gal Gadot who had created multiple PR kerfuffles, they could sideline her and focus on the lead actress. But how do you roll out this movie now with Rachel Zegler as its face and focus? Burbank has to know that social media sharks are circling. At some point that level of scrutiny just becomes unfair, even to Miss Zegler.
If Snow White is actually a good movie (compared to the other Princess live action remakes), it should be allowed to be a good movie and let the actress who was a 19 year old girl when it all blew up learn a life lesson gracefully.
But honestly... I just don't envy the Burbank team trying to package Snow White for American audiences in 45 days.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
They aren’t very rosey. I find the dwarfs off-putting.
That said I don’t think the international split is going to be negative like it was for Mermaid. So if it undershoots Mermaid (which I think it could), it could make up the difference internationally to not be a true disaster.
I think the best case they are hoping for is Mufasa and the worst scenario is The Marvels.
re: Snow White. I don't know why they don't just write it off as a loss. Is it hubris? Save themselves the embarrassment.