Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

You heavily implied Mufasa had failed in its opening weekend in your own way….

I have good typing skills (Thanks to Miss Postma in 7th grade!) and I know how to use the word "flop" in a sentence. Also the word "bomb". If I had wanted to claim that Mufasa had flopped, or was going to flop, or will bomb, or has bombed, I would have said that. But I didn't.

If you got the idea that I was "heavily implying in my own way" that concept, that's on you, I'm afraid.

at any rate I fail to see what Wonka has to do with Mufasa… completely different movies in completely different years

Your concern about daring to bring up Wonka in correlation to Mufasa does not lie with me.

Your concern with Wonka lies with @brideck who brought it up out of the blue last week. In brideck's defense, he has a valid point in that they are both Christmas tentpoles aimed at the family audience. The difference in their budgets and box office performance means that Wonka reached profitability much easier than Mufasa may.

How come you haven't shown the legs chart for this one? Mufasa is the recipient of this year's Christmas miracle. Here's the comp with last year's winner, Wonka.

Well apparently you don’t visit the Mufasa thread… There has been plenty of discussion there

I don't visit that thread as I haven't seen the movie, nor have any plans to, and so the discussion on its artistic merits aren't that interesting to me. This box office thread is for the box office data and hard facts that correlate to Disney's various movies, with interesting compare/contrasts to similar genres and demographics. As an example; a brief 3 post discussion on the box office for Mufasa versus Wonka from last Christmas.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

You heavily implied Mufasa had failed in its opening weekend in your own way….at any rate I fail to see what Wonka has to do with Mufasa… completely different movies in completely different years

Well apparently you don’t visit the Mufasa thread… There has been plenty of discussion there

On one of these threads, I pointed out the similarities. Christmas releases with disappointing openings, but good films with legs, probably partly due to word of mouth.

 

[brideck]

Your concern with Wonka lies with @brideck who brought it up out of the blue last week. In brideck's defense, he has a valid point in that they are both Christmas tentpoles aimed at the family audience.

I actually brought it up as a comp right after Mufasa opened, so it seemed right to revisit it. [We don't have many post-pandemic holiday release family movies to really compare/contrast.]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

The CG animals have actually far outstripped the performance of last year's holiday season even after its relatively shaky opening, as it's headed north of that early $200m/$600m thought.

 

[Disney Irish]

I have good typing skills (Thanks to Miss Postma in 7th grade!) and I know how to use the word "flop" in a sentence. Also the word "bomb". If I had wanted to claim that Mufasa had flopped, or was going to flop, or will bomb, or has bombed, I would have said that. But I didn't.

If you got the idea that I was "heavily implying in my own way" that concept, that's on you, I'm afraid.

You may want to revisit some of your posts and how you word them then, as these several posts (along with others) give the real impression that you wrote off Mufasa after it didn't open strong. Something by the way that you often do even though time and again we have provided real world evidence to you that movies still can be very successful even if they don't open strong.

Okay gang, here's the Thursday box office with Preview showings for Mufasa and Sonic factored in. I'm afraid the king of the jungle is going to leave a photorealistic lump of coal in Bob Iger's stocking this year.

Or, better question, does Mufasa stand a chance to break even?

 

[TP2000]

I actually brought it up as a comp right after Mufasa opened, so it seemed right to revisit it. [We don't have many post-pandemic holiday release family movies to really compare/contrast.]

Thank you! It was a completely valid movie for you to bring up in a discussion about Mufasa's box office performance. That's what we do here in this thread; discuss box office performance and the various compare/contrasts across demographics.

Perhaps now that @DKampy understands that you dared to mention Wonka instead of me, they won't be so mad about it?

 

[TP2000]

You may want to revisit some of your posts and how you word them then, as these several posts (along with others) give the real impression that you wrote off Mufasa after it didn't open strong. Something by the way that you often do even though time and again we have provided real world evidence to you that movies still can be very successful even if they don't open strong.

I understand what I wrote. And looking back at the box office data for Mufasa through today, they appear to be accurate assessments of the box office data.

Mufasa had a comparatively weak opening weekend, and it has not set the box office on fire. It looks like it may not break even, but we'll know more by the end of MLK Jr. weekend on that trend. More time at the box office is needed for that call.

That said, Mufasa could not be described as a huge hit or a blockbuster.

But it's also not a flop, and I never used that word for Mufasa. It's just sort of a... meh. (technical movie industry term)

 

[Disney Irish]

I understand what I wrote. And looking back at the box office data for Mufasa through today, they appear to be accurate assessments of the box office data.

Mufasa had a comparatively weak opening weekend, and it has not set the box office on fire. It looks like it may not break even, but we'll know more by the end of MLK Jr. weekend on that trend. More time is needed for that.

That said, Mufasa could not be described as a huge hit or a blockbuster.

But it's not a flop, and I never used that word. It's just sort of a... meh. (technical movie industry term)

You're missing the point, and I suspect intentionally.

Also as has been discussed in the Mufasa thread, the one you don't visit, and repeated here, that it will likely breakeven at $500M WW. Something that should happen hopefully this weekend.

 

[LittleBuford]

At that rate domestically and barring some massive overseas demand for it, Mufasa will lose at least $400 Million for Burbank. Perhaps more.

But he didn’t use the word “flop”.

 

[LittleBuford]

Surely they didn't spend $250 Million on production for Mufasa. It seems to be going nowhere, and my recent Target run set off my Popdar alarms that it was not only going nowhere, but going nowhere fast. They can't repeat the disasters of 2022 and 2023 already, they just can't.

If he’d meant to imply it wasn’t going to do well, he would have said so! You guys really shouldn’t put words into his mouth!

 

[Architectural Guinea Pig]

Interestingly enough, in about 20 days Mufasa managed to earn the same amount of box office gross as Elemental’s 200 day run, while also earning about the same amount as the gross of Strange World, Haunted Mansion, AND Wish combined. Pretty successful ngl, even if Mufasa is designed to be a commercial success. Like Moana 2, it’s fighting the tides of negative reviews and still earning a hefty sum.

 

[TP2000]

But he didn’t use the word “flop”.

He also blatantly used the words "at that rate" while discussing the box office performance of its first weekend.

How dare he use 8th grade reading comprehension skills in this thread!

But honestly, we're all sane adults here. At what grade level of reading comprehension should we be posting?

 

[TP2000]

Interestingly enough, in about 20 days Mufasa managed to earn the same amount of box office gross as Elemental’s 200 day run, while also earning about the same amount as the gross of Strange World, Haunted Mansion, AND Wish combined. Pretty successful ngl, even if Mufasa is designed to be a commercial success. Like Moana 2, it’s fighting the tides of negative reviews and still earning a hefty sum.

I smell a comparison chart incoming!

@MisterPenguin and @DKampy, please know I cherry picked this box office data only upon the thoughts of another discusser in this discussion of box office on a discussion forum about box office...

To @Architectural Guinea Pig's valid point, Strange World, Haunted Mansion and Wish were all flops. The first two were epic flops to be buried and cancelled and never spoken of again in Burbank, the third was just sort of an average flop. Elemental was big in Asia, but didn't break even. Mufasa seems... meh. Check back on January 21st and we'll get a better read.

One thing is already certain; I'd rather be the exec who approved Mufasa than the exec who approved Strange World.

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[Disney Irish]

He also blatantly used the words "at that rate" while discussing the box office performance of its first weekend.

How dare he use 8th grade reading comprehension skills in this thread!

But honestly, we're all sane adults here. At what grade level of reading comprehension should we be posting?

Guess you missed the sarcasm, you must have been using 7th grade skills when reading those posts.

 

[TP2000]

Guess you missed the sarcasm, you must have been using 7th grade skills when reading those posts.

I got the sarcasm easily, which is why it was odd because it took the statement out of context even though it included my phrase "at that rate".

Which tells me that poster has very mature reading skills; he just chose to ignore those three words for some reason.

 

[Disney Irish]

I got the sarcasm easily, which is why it was odd because it took the statement out of context even though it included my phrase "at that rate".

Which tells me that poster has very mature reading skills; he just chose to ignore those three words for some reason.

Or they put it into context with your other posts on the subject in addition to your particular posting style and commentary regarding this topic and put two and two together to form an opinion.

You have a habit of calling movies failures prematurely before they have completed their theatrical run, which is why its not one but now multiple posters who are calling you out on this. So this isn't just a reading comprehension issue on a single post with a single poster.

 

[LittleBuford]

I got the sarcasm easily, which is why it was odd because it took the statement out of context even though it included my phrase "at that rate".

Which tells me that poster has very mature reading skills; he just chose to ignore those three words for some reason.

You wrote, “If I had wanted to claim that Mufasa had flopped, or was going to flop, or will bomb, or has bombed, I would have said that. But I didn't.” You did claim the bolded, as my quotations of your posts demonstrated.

This’ll be my last reply to you on the matter. I’m not into disingenuous word games.

 

[DKampy]

On one of these threads, I pointed out the similarities. Christmas releases with disappointing openings, but good films with legs, probably partly due to word of mouth.

I saw your post as pointing out the common nature of both films being released in the holiday season…he flipped the narrative to create a competition between the 2… anything to thread a needle towards disparaging Disney Films(noticed he stays quiet about Moana now that it is apparent it will cross the billion dollar threshold)and as you pointed out Mufasa is ahead of Wonka at this point in their respective runs…. If I had to guess Wonka will still gross more in the end( as I believe it had more repeat viewings) but at this time it’s still too early to call

Still Mufasa has earned more than most thought at the beginning of it’s run

 

[BrianLo]

I’m not joining the fray because I don’t really have any problems with the premature declarations… because inevitably they’ll be proven right or wrong in a matter of months on most of these films. I actually enjoy TP’s comments and our back and forth more than people think I do. Probably agreeing with 80% of what he is saying in any given take. This after all is a hobby topic.

Just a quick fact check though that it would be quite impossible to lose 400M on Mufasa in any scenario. Again there is downside protection with contracts on these films. Things like ‘home video’ include pre-arranged contracts with things like the airlines or first run video services for these movies.

Strange World is excellent that we have its P&L sheet as it pretty much spells out the worst possible endpoint for a 200M Dis film. Its loss tops out more or less just above its original budget due to downside risk. Which is just another reason why trying to guess at additional costs like marketing are sort of irrelevant, those are almost fully cancelled out in lock step in the back end merely by releasing a movie. It’s just another reason the simplistic calculus works, a doomsday scenario can’t lose more than 1.25X of a budget or 250M in Mufasa’s case. That would also require the most pessimistic outcome of a full Theatrical release and marketing spend and zero box office dollars and even still that’s the pessimistic projection…

Elemental we do know was profitable in the end from studio commentary at the time. It registers a little over 2.4X which still puts at the top end of in the band of 2.1-2.4X when usually the break even has occurred and just below 2.5 where it for sure for sure has occurred.

By the way… Mufasa is at literally the exact same point today as Elemental was at the end of its run. Mufasa has hit profitability already and the next 60d of its run is the profit grab. A 400M loss was an undercall by likely well over half a billion dollars once we wrap.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m not joining the fray because I don’t really have any problems with the premature declarations… because inevitably they’ll be proven right or wrong in a matter of months on most of these films. I actually enjoy TP’s comments and our back and forth more than people think I do. Probably agreeing with 80% of what he is saying in any given take. This after all is a hobby topic.

Just a quick fact check though that it would be quite impossible to lose 400M on Mufasa in any scenario. Again there is downside protection with contracts on these films. Things like ‘home video’ include pre-arranged contracts with things like the airlines or first run video services for these movies.

Strange World is excellent that we have its P&L sheet as it pretty much spells out the worst possible endpoint for a 200M Dis film. Its loss tops out more or less just above its original budget due to downside risk. Which is just another reason why trying to guess at additional costs like marketing are sort of irrelevant, those are almost fully cancelled out in lock step in the back end merely by releasing a movie. It’s just another reason the simplistic calculus works, a doomsday scenario can’t lose more than 1.25X of a budget or 250M in Mufasa’s case. That would also require the most pessimistic outcome of a full Theatrical release and marketing spend and zero box office dollars and even still that’s the pessimistic projection…


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Elemental we do know was profitable in the end from studio commentary at the time. It registers a little over 2.4X which still puts at the top end of in the band of 2.1-2.4X when usually the break even has occurred and just below 2.5 where it for sure for sure has occurred.

By the way… Mufasa is at literally the exact same point today as Elemental was at the end of its run. Mufasa has hit profitability already and the next 60d of its run is the profit grab. A 400M loss was an undercall by likely well over half a billion dollars once we wrap.

BTW, I like how its still call P&A (Prints and Ads) when there is no more prints with movies now being digital downloads to the theaters. So costs in the regards have come down, or more precisely just means the Studios can spend more on the ad campaigns for the same price.

 

[LittleBuford]

I’m not joining the fray because I don’t really have any problems with the premature declarations…

Nor do I! It's the subsequent denials and gaslighting that irritate me.