Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

That’s a ridiculous comment right there

Ooh, ooh, which part? You're always so informative with your posts when cutting people down.

 

[TP2000]

Where's your analysis on Moana 2?

I’m wisely waiting for MLK Jr. Weekend’s box office to come in before we put that movie to bed...

So, by MLK Jr Weekend, it should hit $1B WW.

I figured if I tried to do an update now when it hasn’t hit a Billion yet, I’d be accused of jumping the gun.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

 

[TP2000]

In addition to what the other folks have said, squeak nothing. How come you haven't shown the legs chart for this one? Mufasa is the recipient of this year's Christmas miracle. Here's the comp with last year's winner, Wonka.

The notable difference between those two is that Wonka had a production budget that was 63% of the budget for Mufasa.

Thus, to make the same amount of profit that Wonka did, Mufasa would need to get to roughly $800 Million at the global box office, and it's fairly evident it won't do that. But maybe $600 Million-ish for Mufasa globally is achievable?

With Wonka costing less than two thirds the price of Mufasa, it crossed into profitability faster and easier than the road ahead for Mufasa on its current trajectory. Burbank loves a $200 Million movie, and even their "cheap" Made For TV movies (Moana 2) cost $150 Million. But Warner's made Wonka for $125 Million, so the box office profit looks like this...

Wonka: Production $125, Marketing $65, Domestic $131, Overseas $163 = $104 Million Profit
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing

Wonka (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Wonka (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ooh, ooh, which part? You're always so informative with your posts when cutting people down.

The part where you said “it’s a shame you don’t like movies” to one of the most experienced Hollywood/movie industry commentators on the board.

Way to do your research

 

[LittleBuford]

The part where you said “it’s a shame you don’t like movies” to one of the most experienced Hollywood/movie industry commentators on the board.

Way to do your research

By his own telling, he doesn't watch the movies he comments on. He has stated this himself multiple times. For example:

I've never been a movie person. I can go a year or so without seeing a movie, and generally just go along with family at Christmas or in summer.

Nobody is disputing the success of inside out 2 or Moana 2…

He is. He called Moana 2's success only "modest" multiple times. There was a long exchange about it here a few weeks ago (you can search for it if you’re interested). :

 

[brideck]

The part where you said “it’s a shame you don’t like movies” to one of the most experienced Hollywood/movie industry commentators on the board.

Way to do your research

One only need read his movie-related posts, as I have been for over a year now, to know that experience in commenting does not an expert make. We've seen evidence of this phenomenon every day on cable news for years now, too. Don't assume that just because someone likes to comment on a topic, it means that they know anything about the topic.

 

[brideck]

The notable difference between those two is that Wonka had a production budget that was 63% of the budget for Mufasa.

Cool cool cool. No one here said that Mufasa was going to be more profitable than Wonka. If you, in fact, even take the numbers from my rosy projection in that same post, you'll see that's not the case. [By the way you reckon it, it would land somewhere in the $50m-$75m profit range in the end.]

The comparison was to show the relative trajectory and that if Mufasa is to land where it now looks like it should be landing that it wouldn't be "squeaking" its way into profitability. But thanks for the superfluous charting, I guess.

 

[CinematicFusion]

Yet Superman is still in the top 5 most viewed trailers of all time…. It’s still quite a ways off… we still have over 1/2 a year till it’s released… the full promotional push is not in force yet…even in the past most people would not be aware of a film this far out….I remember when the first Phantom Menace trailer was released unless you were a super Star Wars fan… most people I knew did not realize that a new trailer was released

Everyone knew when The Phantom Menace trailer was released—it was a huge cultural moment. People even bought tickets to see Meet Joe Black in theaters just so they could watch the trailer, then left without staying for the movie.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Everyone knew when The Phantom Menace trailer was released—it was a huge cultural moment. People even bought tickets to see Meet Joe Black in theaters just so they could watch the trailer, then left without staying for the movie.

Hey…Claire forlani was much more worth watching than that awful Star Wars movie

 

[Phroobar]

Everyone knew when The Phantom Menace trailer was released—it was a huge cultural moment. People even bought tickets to see Meet Joe Black in theaters just so they could watch the trailer, then left without staying for the movie.

Entertainment Tonight ran the trailer when it was released. There was news stories about people waiting months outside the theater just to see the Episode 1 trailer.



Entertainment Tonight and Extra always ran trailers for movies and reported on movie news. It was a sad day when they put Lisa Gibbons behind a desk on that show so we couldn't see her legs.

 

[DKampy]

Everyone knew when The Phantom Menace trailer was released—it was a huge cultural moment. People even bought tickets to see Meet Joe Black in theaters just so they could watch the trailer, then left without staying for the movie.

You mean the movie that became the 45th most popular of 1998

Different time…. There would of been people that would of bought a ticket to Mufasa to see the new Superman trailer if it was not as simple as a click of a button

 

[CinematicFusion]

You mean the movie that became the 45th most popular of 1998

Different time…. There would of been people that would of bought a ticket to Mufasa to see the new Superman trailer if it was not as simple as a click of a button

Phantom Menace was different, the trailer was later made available online, but downloads were slow due to internet limitations at the time. It became one of the first major examples of online video hype, signaling how the internet would later transform movie marketing.

What Happened When The Phantom Menace's Trailer Was Shown In Theaters

There is a great deal of excitement swelling this week as audiences around North America get ready for their first ever look at J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens. But do you remember the last time anticipation was this high about a new series of Star Wars movies?

www.cinemablend.com

 

[DKampy]

The notable difference between those two is that Wonka had a production budget that was 63% of the budget for Mufasa.

Thus, to make the same amount of profit that Wonka did, Mufasa would need to get to roughly $800 Million at the global box office, and it's fairly evident it won't do that. But maybe $600 Million-ish for Mufasa globally is achievable?

With Wonka costing less than two thirds the price of Mufasa, it crossed into profitability faster and easier than the road ahead for Mufasa on its current trajectory. Burbank loves a $200 Million movie, and even their "cheap" Made For TV movies (Moana 2) cost $150 Million. But Warner's made Wonka for $125 Million, so the box office profit looks like this...

Wonka: Production $125, Marketing $65, Domestic $131, Overseas $163 = $104 Million Profit
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing

View attachment 835208

Wonka (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Wonka (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

I don’t know what your point is anymore… First Mufasa is a flop..then when it is performing better than thought Mufasa is still losing money…. Now that Mufasa has a path to profitability but look how much more Profits Wonka made

The Naysayers have Said Disney is unhappy with the result…. Maybe 2019 would have been when they green lit the project if they could time travel…. I am sure Disney were fully aware the movie could fail… they see the trends, chatter, and projections…. But now that the movie is looking like it may even turn a profit…. I am sure they are very happy…. Especially since their films have grossed more with less films then any other studio

 

[DKampy]

Phantom Menace was different, the trailer was later made available online, but downloads were slow due to internet limitations at the time. It became one of the first major examples of online video hype, signaling how the internet would later transform movie marketing.

What Happened When The Phantom Menace's Trailer Was Shown In Theaters

There is a great deal of excitement swelling this week as audiences around North America get ready for their first ever look at J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens. But do you remember the last time anticipation was this high about a new series of Star Wars movies?

www.cinemablend.com

To be fair I never said The Phantom Menace was not a big deal….nor am I expecting Superman to perform better…. My original point was in response to someone who said they knew people who were not aware of the trailer…. My only point… I even knew people who were not aware of the episode 1 trailer at the time

 

[Disney Irish]

The part where you said “it’s a shame you don’t like movies” to one of the most experienced Hollywood/movie industry commentators on the board.

Way to do your research

Are you feeling ok? Do we need to be concerned about you?

Just because someone can copy/paste and use MS Paint on a graph doesn't make them an expert, especially about someone who by their own admission has no expertise in such topics.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are you feeling ok? Do we need to be concerned about you?

Just because someone can copy/paste and use MS Paint on a graph doesn't make them an expert, especially about someone who by their own admission has no expertise in such topics.

It’s beyond the graphs….the graphs are the easy part.

And we have this fun “private” section here too. Maybe that’s where the real discussion goes when people tire of seeing little mermaid declared a hit when all evidence says otherwise…and it fizzled like a firecracker bought from the dollar store

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Entertainment Tonight ran the trailer when it was released. There was news stories about people waiting months outside the theater just to see the Episode 1 trailer.



Entertainment Tonight and Extra always ran trailers for movies and reported on movie news. It was a sad day when they put Lisa Gibbons behind a desk on that show so we couldn't see her legs.

I believe phantom menace was the first trailer I watched online?…Star Wars.com

The world was seized up that day…much worse than Y2K

Also…there are clips of people buying tickets just for the trailers. I know the howie mandel show one is out there

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

One only need read his movie-related posts, as I have been for over a year now, to know that experience in commenting does not an expert make. We've seen evidence of this phenomenon every day on cable news for years now, too. Don't assume that just because someone likes to comment on a topic, it means that they know anything about the topic.

I think TP has less power than cable news…but we all need TP.

 

[Chi84]

I think TP has less power than cable news…but we all need TP.

Yes but for very specific reasons lol.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes but for very specific reasons lol.

…always a mess to clean up around here