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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
*Back pat*
Now it was a very solid international hold and that is in large part thanks to the holiday, but it should be able to get passed Zootopia’s tally now.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
I may be thinking of Episode 2, but I have a memory of them releasing the trailer in front of a certain movie. I took a girl to that movie, and the theater was relatively full, and after the Star Wars trailer, 4/5 of the theater left. People bought tickets to the movie JUST to see that trailer.You have a faulty memory
'The Phantom Menace' Trailer Was a Game-changer, And Not Just For Star Wars
A teaser for the first Star Wars prequel wasn't just a treat for fans in 1998: it was a win for Apple and a test of the rising internet.www.cnet.com
Star Wars: How The Phantom Menace Teaser Trailer Became a Cinematic Event
The first Phantom Menace trailer was nothing short of a spectacle. We look back at how this trailer created major Star Wars hype.www.denofgeek.com
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
A nice quick visual about why the holidays matter for some of this family fare. This was NOT unusual or unexpected either, it’s just typical holidays.
Moana 2
Mufasa on the other hand had the actual holiday magic… but all films that aren’t dead on arrival leg out during this frame. I’m sure we’ll have to have the same conversation next year for Zootopia 2. We had it with Frozen 2.
Moana 2
Mufasa on the other hand had the actual holiday magic… but all films that aren’t dead on arrival leg out during this frame. I’m sure we’ll have to have the same conversation next year for Zootopia 2. We had it with Frozen 2.
I have sources from within Disney that says that Frozen 2 will be a giant flop.
How F-Bombs and Family Fare Saved the 2024 Box Office
Few could have predicted that PG movies and two foul-mouthed comic book heroes — plus sending titles earlier into homes — would be saviors of 2024.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
Franchise me!!!
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Shows how the number of releases by a studio doesn't always equate to the highest box office earner.
wtyy21
Well-Known Member
Oscars Announce 323 Feature Films Deemed Eligible for Nominations
The Oscars have announced 323 feature films are eligible for the 97th Academy Awards, ahead of voting opening on Jan. 8.
variety.com
Definitely shows Disney deciding to go for less in a year, is paying off, maybe?
brideck
Well-Known Member
Oscars Announce 323 Feature Films Deemed Eligible for Nominations
The Oscars have announced 323 feature films are eligible for the 97th Academy Awards, ahead of voting opening on Jan. 8.
Man, I knew that I didn't make it to the theater as much as usual this year, but I think I've only seen 46 of the 323 feature films listed there. Typically, I'd be up a lot closer to 100...
brideck
Well-Known Member
It'll be interesting to see where they think the sweet spot is. This year is less than you would typically get because of the strikes, the lack of Marvel, etc. Maybe closer to 15 or 20 moving forward?
Also, 10 is definitely a deliberate undercount of what they actually put in theaters, I think. To get a number that small, you'd have to discount the Jan-Mar Pixar releases, their re-releases (e.g. Phantom Menace), and other things that they didn't report BO on, like Young Woman and the Sea and Nightbench.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Sorry for the delay in posting the weekend numbers gang, I was traveling yesterday.
Here's the closeout for the holiday season, with a very special look at Mufasa which we haven't talked about much...
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing
Will Mufasa make it to profitability by it's 5th or 6th week? It could be a squeaker.
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thenumbers.com
Here's the closeout for the holiday season, with a very special look at Mufasa which we haven't talked about much...
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing
Will Mufasa make it to profitability by it's 5th or 6th week? It could be a squeaker.
The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 9, 2025
Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 9, 2025
thenumbers.com
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Or using the more traditional and widely accepted 2.5x Budget (as has been discussed in the Mufasa thread), its only ~$24M away from profitability. But who's counting.Sorry for the delay in posting the weekend numbers gang, I was traveling yesterday.
Here's the closeout for the holiday season, with a very special look at Mufasa which we haven't talked about much...
View attachment 835166
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing
Will Mufasa make it to profitability by it's 5th or 6th week? It could be a squeaker.
The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 9, 2025
Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 9, 2025
Not to mention that Moana 2 is only $39.1M away from $1B.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Or using the more traditional and widely accepted 2.5x Budget (as has been discussed in the Mufasa thread), its only ~$24M away from profitability. But who's counting.
Not to mention that Moana 2 is only $39.1M away from $1B.
The 2.5x formula works if your global box office is predominantly domestic and thus the studio rakes in 60% of the ticket sales. Which was often the case in the 20th century, before there were Starbucks in Beijing and Marvel toys for sale in Moscow.
Mufasa's overseas box office is $308 Million, compared to it's domestic tally of $168 Million. Overseas box office gets a much smaller take sent back to the American studio, estimated at 40%.
A movie like Wicked, which has had strong domestic sales but has comparatively much weaker overseas sales, is going to pull in a profit faster than a Mufasa that has almost a two-to-one split favoring overseas markets.
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $101, Overseas $123 = $76 Million Loss and narrowing
Wicked: Production $145, Marketing $75, Domestic $270, Overseas $92 = $142 Million profit and climbing
What would you rather do... take 60% of the box office from a movie popular in America (Wicked), or take 40% of the box office from a movie popular in Europe (Mufasa)?
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
You’ve already corrected for that appropriately though, no problem with that level of nuance. You don’t need to double correct.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
To add to what @BrianLo said, you also don't know the exact splits, it could be closer to 50%/30% for all we know. Each movie split is going to be different, as the 60/40 ratio was the more aggressive pre-pandemic ratio when Disney was known to turn the screws on the theaters. Its likely not the same anymore, and certainly not the same across all studios or movies, or the same for the entire theatrical run.
DisneyWarrior27
Well-Known Member
Where's your analysis on Moana 2?
brideck
Well-Known Member
Will Mufasa make it to profitability by it's 5th or 6th week? It could be a squeaker.
In addition to what the other folks have said, squeak nothing. How come you haven't shown the legs chart for this one? Mufasa is the recipient of this year's Christmas miracle. Here's the comp with last year's winner, Wonka.
Mufasa looks to be headed to maybe just a little shy of $300m domestically. If the split holds, that'd be north of $800m worldwide. Not too shabby.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
That’s a ridiculous comment right there