Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[CinematicFusion]

Really? $250 Million for production/marketing? I had it pegged as only spending half its production budget of $145 Million on marketing, thus getting to a total of $225 Million. But they spent $100 Million on marketing? I can believe that actually, reflecting back on how many YouTube commercials I saw for Wicked, and the huge product pavilion on display at my local Target.



Makes sense. If they spent $250 Million on Wicked, they must have planned for it to do better. Especially overseas, where box office was mostly dismal for a big budget Hollywood musical like that. Hmm...

The film adaptation of the musical “Wicked” is being released in two parts, each with a production budget of approximately $150 million, totaling around $300 million for both films.

What Was the Wicked Budget? How Much Money the Movie Cost

Wicked is the most expensive musical ever made, but fans are curious about the budget for the two-part film. Details on the budget, the cast’s salaries and more.

www.intouchweekly.com

While the exact marketing expenditures haven’t been publicly disclosed, industry estimates suggest that the marketing budget for each part could range between $50 million and $100 million.

Casting a Marketing Spell: Inside Wicked’s Road to Box Office Success | Brand Vision

The much-anticipated Wicked movie adaptation is poised to take center stage as one of the biggest blockbusters of 2024. Universal Pictures is sparing no effort in promoting this two-part film, with a comprehensive marketing strategy that features a series of high-profile brand collaborations

www.brandvm.com

This brings the combined estimated cost for production and marketing of both parts to approximately $400 million to $500 million.

 

[Disney Irish]

In the context of the conversation here in the last few days, plus the box office data that have been used to compare it to other Disney live action remakes in the past decade, I feel confident in calling Moana 2 a modest success in that context.

It's not a huge global hit like 2019's The Lion King or Beauty & The Beast, but it's certainly not a flop like Dumbo. It's on a trajectory to be a modest success and get around $900 Million globally by the end of its run, and it has already crossed into profitability in its third week in theaters owing to its Made For TV production budget of only $150 Million.

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Not sure why you insist on using Disney live-action remake as the comparison to an Disney animated feature. As has been mentioned before you should be using other Disney animated features such as Frozen 2.

 

[BrianLo]

Honestly… I thought this film would open to way less, better than I thought, if this is the case.

100 percent.

If it’s walking away with that sort of global take that’s much more than my super low expectations; which was like 20-25% of the original akin to The Marvels or Alice Through the Looking Glass. International may very well save this one.

 

[BrianLo]

Looks like it would be more than Dumbo ($46 million) and less than Cinderella ($68 million), unadjusted for inflation. Mermaid had a $96 million opening last year. 2019 Lion King had a $191 million opening weekend.

Mermaid actually did fairly well domestically. But that was kind of hard for people to comprehend/acknowledge early last year.

For better or worse we had four more movies that calendar year which showed us what “bad” truly was.

 

[LittleBuford]

It's on a trajectory to be a modest success and get around $900 Million globally by the end of its run

You really are using the word “modest” in a very idiosyncratic, highly nonstandard way. But I think you know that beneath the veneer of informed analysis.

 

[BrianLo]

You really are using the word “modest” in a very idiosyncratic, highly nonstandard way. But I think you know that beneath the veneer of informed analysis.

It doesn’t really matter, I’m looking forward to demonstrating to TP how the holiday box office window actually works, since he’s never had the chance to see it in effect for a WDAS film. There’s nothing considered modest In the film world about 6-7x the budget in the box office window.

I’d reserve the word modest for Mermaid and Elemental. Or disappointing and surprising, respectively. But it’s all completely needless semantics.

 

[TalkingHead]

The problem with analyzing Disney’s releases is it doesn’t just boil down to the box office tally. Because the company has tied itself so closely to IP franchises, general audience approval is a more important metric than it might otherwise be.

Moana 2 has done good business but the audience satisfaction is fairly weak for a franchise sequel. Inside Out landed better with audiences suggesting the next sequel will have an easier path to success.

Mufasa appears to be closer to Moana 2 for audience response. Which means The Lion King franchise is probably dead as it relates to new theatrical releases which makes a mediocre box office that much worse.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[TP2000]

Not sure why you insist on using Disney live-action remake as the comparison to an Disney animated feature. As has been mentioned before you should be using other Disney animated features such as Frozen 2.

I think that came about because of the compare/contrast to Wicked. Plus Mufasa opening this Friday. But your point is valid, and we can certainly compare Moana 2 to Frozen 2. There's only five years between them, after all.

Adjusted for the wild inflation of the past few years of course, I think it's safe to say the words "Modest Success" apply perfectly to Moana 2 when you compare it to Frozen 2. Especially the rather dismal overseas box office for Moana 2. Oof!

You really are using the word “modest” in a very idiosyncratic, highly nonstandard way. But I think you know that beneath the veneer of informed analysis.

I had to step back and think for a moment, questioning myself that I was using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence. It makes me chuckle, because about a year ago at my barber's I learned from the young barber next to my chair that the word "sick" actually means something is good, or positive. Has the word "modest" also gone the same way and it now means something is below average, instead of being... modest?

I looked it up in my Funk & Wagnall's and "modest" still means the same thing. Moana 2, compared to many other Disney family films of the past decade, appears to be a modest success in the global box office.

Honest question, what's your definition of the word "modest" when used in the context of "modest success"?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I wish I had half a billion dollars so that I could live a modest life.

 

[TP2000]

I wish I had half a billion dollars so that I could live a modest life.

For a lifetime income for one person, $500 Million would be a bonanza.

For a movie that cost $225 Million to produce and get to market, $500 Million would be a modest box office take for a studio.

 

[TP2000]

But yes, by all means continue to pretend that you can't speak good English.

I still know exactly what the word modest means. Compared to other recent Disney films, Moana 2 is a modest success.

 

[CinematicFusion]

In the context of the conversation here in the last few days, plus the box office data that have been used to compare it to other Disney live action remakes in the past decade, I feel confident in calling Moana 2 a modest success in that context.

It's not a huge global hit like 2019's The Lion King or Beauty & The Beast, but it's certainly not a flop like Dumbo. It's on a trajectory to be a modest success and get around $900 Million globally by the end of its run, and it has already crossed into profitability in its third week in theaters owing to its Made For TV production budget of only $150 Million.

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To be fair, if Wicked hits 900 million globally it’s more than a modest success. I mean.. $900 million globally on a $250 million budget would be considered a major success, not a modest one.
Maybe not greatest of all time type numbers and maybe studio was hoping for more but the studio should be happy if it hit 900 million mark by end of run.

 

[DKampy]

I think that came about because of the compare/contrast to Wicked. Plus Mufasa opening this Friday. But your point is valid, and we can certainly compare Moana 2 to Frozen 2. There's only five years between them, after all.

Adjusted for the wild inflation of the past few years of course, I think it's safe to say the words "Modest Success" apply perfectly to Moana 2 when you compare it to Frozen 2. Especially the rather dismal overseas box office for Moana 2. Oof!

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I had to step back and think for a moment, questioning myself that I was using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence. It makes me chuckle, because about a year ago at my barber's I learned from the young barber next to my chair that the word "sick" actually means something is good, or positive. Has the word "modest" also gone the same way and it now means something is below average, instead of being... modest?

I looked it up in my Funk & Wagnall's and "modest" still means the same thing. Moana 2, compared to many other Disney family films of the past decade, appears to be a modest success in the global box office.

Honest question, what's your definition of the word "modest" when used in the context of "modest success"?

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Now compare Moana 2 to the first Moana

Also what was the budget inflation for Frozen 2?

 

[Ghost93]

While Moana 2 is undeniably a financial success, I believe if it were actually a good movie with great songs that people would want to sing and re-listen to, it could have made around $1.5 billion. Between this and the unnecessary remake coming out next year, I think the Moana brand will be somewhat tarnished by the time Moana 3 comes around.

 

[BrianLo]

Especially the rather dismal overseas box office for Moana 2. Oof!

We’ve moved from modest to dismal. I give you a gold star for being highly inflammatory!

if only this movie was still in theatres with a major holiday earning window or something…

 

[BrianLo]

Here’s the actual relevant WDAS chart that the Global command center is withholding.

Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.

 

[TP2000]

To be fair, if Wicked hits 900 million globally it’s more than a modest success. I mean.. $900 million globally on a $250 million budget would be considered a major success, not a modest one.
Maybe not greatest of all time type numbers and maybe studio was hoping for more but the studio should be happy if it hit 900 million mark by end of run.

Sorry, I may have phrased that wrong. I was talking about Moana 2 that appears to be on a trajectory to $900-ish Million.

I haven't really looked at where Wicked may end up globally by January. But I doubt it's going to get close to $900 Million with its weak overseas box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sorry, I may have phrased that wrong. I was talking about Moana 2 that appears to be on a trajectory to $900-ish Million.

I haven't really looked at where Wicked may end up globally by January. But I doubt it's going to get close to $900 Million with its weak overseas box office.

Even $900M for Moana2 on a $150M budget isn't modest, that is a huge success financially even if it didn't cross $1B.

Your usage of "modest" here is flawed in my opinion.

 

[TP2000]

Now compare Moana 2 to the first Moana

Also what was the budget inflation for Frozen 2?

Happy to do that. Interestingly, the budget for Frozen II in 2019 had no inflation from Frozen in 2012. They both had budgets of $150 Million in their respective years, but that was a $22 Million budget deflation for Frozen II in 2019.

Here’s the actual relevant WDAS chart that the Global command center is withholding.

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I don't power up and turn on the blinky lights in the TP2000 Global Command Center until after I've had lunch. And trust me when I say that Mr. Johnson is not a morning person either, and he won't even put on his white lab coat until Noon at the earliest.

But I'm here now in the Command Center and I've turned on the blinky lights and Mr. Johnson is in full costume. So here's how the inflation adjusted chart looks like for those movies. This is a fun one, because I had forgotten how much Strange World absolutely bombed two years ago! Phew, that one was brutal.

Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.

I don't know why we wouldn't adjust historic box office for inflation? I don't think there's a need to do that for films from only a year or two ago, but there's definitely a need to factor in the 20% or more rise in costs from pre-Covid and any movie released in 2019 or earlier. There's a reason The Numbers site offers a prominent "Inflation Adjusted" switch on charts.

If you don't adjust for inflation, you get charts that can look like this showing Moana 2 on track to beat Star Wars at the global box office. (Extreme and witty example, but I think you get my point that inflation matters to budgets and profits)