Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

The days of Siskel & Ebert, plus that guy with the crazy eyebrows and mustache on The Today Show (what was his name? I'll have to Google that) are long gone.

Quoting myself after Googling, because I'm sure some of the more, um, mature members here will also remember him as a famed movie critic.

It's Gene Shalit! And miracle of miracles, he's still alive and kicking at 98 years old! He was the movie critic on The Today Show starting in 1970, and in the 70's and 80's his movie reviews were solid gold. Shame on me for forgetting his name.

Can you believe those eyebrows and stache?!? I remember the Eugene Levy sendup of him from SCTV episodes in the late 70's more than the actual movie reviews Mr. Shalit did. But you just don't see mustaches and eyebrows like that anymore.

That's Barbara Wawa sitting next to him, and another Today Show anchor that doesn't seem familiar to me. Even in the 70's, I was not a morning person.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Honestly… I thought this film would open to way less, better than I thought, if this is the case.

 

[LittleBuford]

Wicked is doing modestly well at the box office in the UK

You’re the only person out there saying this. It’s a very peculiar stance to be taking, but I’m sure you have your reasons.

ETA: That you’re describing even Moana 2’s global box-office performance as “modest” leaves me wondering what on earth you understand by that term.

 

[Disney Irish]

You’re the only person out there saying this. It’s a very peculiar stance to be taking, but I’m sure you have your reasons.

ETA: That you’re describing even Moana 2’s global box-office performance as “modest” leaves me wondering what on earth you understand by that term.

Calling Moana's $719M WW box office "modest" is really all you need to know.

What's even more funny is that Moana is now getting the more normal domestic to international split you typically see, sitting now at 47%/53% respectively. Will be closer to the normal 40%/60% when all is said and done.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I will say that the Cinemascore and Popcorn-meter (like most scales that the public uses to vote) are fundamentally broken from giving a score that feels truly meaningful. But for the purposes of predicting great word-of-mouth, Disney would be looking for something in the A-range and a popcorn score of >90%.

Aggregate critic scores on something like Rotten Tomatoes are somewhat useful in that they show an overall trend on how a movie has been received.

Consumer scores are okay to a degree as well but can suffer from review bombing when a group decides they have an axe to grind.

The best thing for one to do is find one or two critics who they trust and have similar tastes to. One meaningful review is so much more useful than an average score.

Ratings aren't the be all and end all either. Roger Ebert pointed out that a good review describes a movie in a way that lets the reader know whether or not it's for them. A critic might give a movie a deservedly low score because it's mindless action or low brow humour. A reader can determine that they might like such a movie because it's the type of content they like.

 

[TalkingHead]

Honestly… I thought this film would open to way less, better than I thought, if this is the case.

Too lazy to look it up but how would that domestic opening compare to other live action remakes?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Too lazy to look it up but how would that domestic opening compare to other live action remakes?

All I know is waaaay less than the first one.

 

[Ghost93]

Wicked is doing modestly well at the box office in the UK, while it has flopped (or is simply ignored) everywhere else besides the USA. Wicked is apparently a movie that only Americans (plus Canadians) or Brits (plus Irishmen?) have much interest in.

Wicked (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Wicked (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

I think the Wizard of Oz and the Wicked musical are simply much more popular in America than overseas, which is why Wicked is a phenomenon in the U.S. and flopping/underperforming in overseas countries. Similar thing happened earlier this year with Twisters doing great in the U.S. but poorly overseas.

There's a possibility, however, that Wicked Part 2 might do better overseas if foreign audiences discover the film more in streaming. I don't think other countries necessarily hate Wicked, they just don't have nostalgia for the IP.

Wicked fortunately kept it's budget fairly low for this type of movie by shooting both films back-to-back, so it will be profitable regardless.

 

[TalkingHead]

All I know is waaaay less than the first one.

Looks like it would be more than Dumbo ($46 million) and less than Cinderella ($68 million), unadjusted for inflation. Mermaid had a $96 million opening last year. 2019 Lion King had a $191 million opening weekend.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I think the Wizard of Oz and the Wicked musical are simply much more popular in America than overseas, which is why Wicked is a phenomenon in the U.S. and flopping/underperforming in overseas countries. Similar thing happened earlier this year with Twisters doing great in the U.S. but poorly overseas.

There's a possibility, however, that Wicked Part 2 might do better overseas if foreign audiences discover the film more in streaming. I don't think other countries necessarily hate Wicked, they just don't have nostalgia for the IP.

Wicked fortunately kept it's budget fairly low for this type of movie by shooting both films back-to-back, so it will be profitable regardless.

Wicked has also yet to release in some foreign markets. I expect it to do well in Japan.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Too lazy to look it up but how would that domestic opening compare to other live action remakes?

Lion King: $191.7 million
Beauty and the Beast: $174.7 million
Alice in Wonderland: $116 million
Jungle Book: $103 Million
Little Mermaid: $95.5 million
Aladdin: $91.5 million
Maleficent: $69.4 million
Cinderella: $67.8 million
Dumbo: $46 million
Maleficent 2: $36.9 million
Alice Through the Looking Glass: $26.8 million
Cruella: $21.4 million [same-day Disney+ release you had to pay for]

The sequels to these remakes don't have a great track record.

That this is doing better than Alice or Maleficent 2 is proof of how much people like Lion King better in general.

 

[TP2000]

I think the Wizard of Oz and the Wicked musical are simply much more popular in America than overseas, which is why Wicked is a phenomenon in the U.S. and flopping/underperforming in overseas countries. Similar thing happened earlier this year with Twisters doing great in the U.S. but poorly overseas.

There's a possibility, however, that Wicked Part 2 might do better overseas if foreign audiences discover the film more in streaming. I don't think other countries necessarily hate Wicked, they just don't have nostalgia for the IP.

Wicked fortunately kept it's budget fairly low for this type of movie by shooting both films back-to-back, so it will be profitable regardless.

I couldn't agree with you more. There's clearly a disconnect on Wicked with foreign audiences, while it's been notably more successful with Americans. Luckily, it "only" had a $150 Million production budget, so it got itself to breakeven last week while still flopping in most overseas markets.

If Wicked had a Burbank-sized budget of $250+ Million, its path to breakeven would be almost impossible with its dismal overseas performance.

I grew up watching The Wizard of Oz on TV every Easter break. I vaguely remember it as NBC, with the ding-dong-ding jingle In Living Color. Do they still broadcast Oz on network TV, I wonder? I doubt most Europeans had that tradition, and many Europeans born after 1970 may have never even seen The Wizard of Oz on any format; broadcast TV, movie theaters, Disc/Cassettes. If so, and if they aren't West End London theater fans, why would they even care about Wicked?

The comparatively dismal overseas box office for Wicked seems to prove that point for us.

 

[TP2000]

Wicked has also yet to release in some foreign markets. I expect it to do well in Japan.

On The Numbers site, Wicked opened in all overseas markets by December 5th. The majority of markets opened on November 21st or 22nd. The lone exception is Japan, which doesn't open until March 7th, 2025.

I somehow doubt the springtime Japan audience (of maybe $25 Million?) will save its overseas performance overall. But maybe Japan had the same Easter tradition of showing The Wizard of Oz on national broadcast television for decades since the 1950's?

Wicked (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Wicked (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I couldn't agree with you more. There's clearly a disconnect on Wicked with foreign audiences, while it's been notably more successful with Americans. Luckily, it "only" had a $150 Million production budget, so it got itself to breakeven last week while still flopping in most overseas markets.

If Wicked had a Burbank-sized budget of $250+ Million, its path to breakeven would be almost impossible with its dismal overseas performance.

I grew up watching The Wizard of Oz on TV every Easter break. I vaguely remember it as NBC, with the ding-dong-ding jingle In Living Color. Do they still broadcast Oz on network TV, I wonder? I doubt most Europeans had that tradition, and many Europeans born after 1970 may have never even seen The Wizard of Oz on any format; broadcast TV, movie theaters, Disc/Cassettes. If so, and if they aren't West End London theater fans, why would they even care about Wicked?

The comparatively dismal overseas box office for Wicked seems to prove that point for us.

I would say that Wicked is sort of its own thing separate of 1939 Wizard of Oz, similar to how The Wiz was its own thing also. So the nostalgia for the 1939 movie wouldn't play into this as much as being a fan of the musical.

As you sort of alluded to, the musical toured worldwide since 2006, including very successful runs in London's West End, other places in the UK/Ireland, Germany, Japan, Singapore, Mexico and Australia to name a few. So it has quite a following, very possible that those other countries aren't big on the film adaptations of the favorite musical or will catch it down the line when it hits whatever streaming service it goes to overseas.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Coincidentally, of the 13 movies released as "Platinum Edition" DVDs in the 2000s*, all but one (Bambi) have been done as live action remakes. The movies included in this line up were based on prior home video sales.

They've run out of the heavy hitters of the 20th century, and that's why they're doing post 2000 stuff now too.

I know a lot of other movies have been considered, but it feels like they're all stuck in development.

*Fantasia was to be movie #14, but ultimately was released in 2010 without said title

 

[TP2000]

Too lazy to look it up but how would that domestic opening compare to other live action remakes?

You'd need to adjust for inflation here in late 2024, even for movies from 2019. The past few years have been brutal for the American pocketbook, remember.

The Lion King live action remake opened on a mid July weekend in 2019 to a total of $192 Million domestically, which would be $237 Million here in 2024. If Mufasa makes $55 Million domestically in its debut weekend, that would mean Mufasa only made 23% of the debut box office that its 2019 predecessor did, adjusted for inflation.

And if they spent more than $200 Million on the production budget for Mufasa, a weak domestic opening weekend of only $55 Million will mean financial disaster barring some huge overseas box office.

Lion King: $191.7 million
Beauty and the Beast: $174.7 million
Alice in Wonderland: $116 million
Jungle Book: $103 Million
Little Mermaid: $95.5 million
Aladdin: $91.5 million
Maleficent: $69.4 million
Cinderella: $67.8 million
Dumbo: $46 million
Maleficent 2: $36.9 million
Alice Through the Looking Glass: $26.8 million
Cruella: $21.4 million [same-day Disney+ release you had to pay for]

Some of those movies are a decade old, when eggs were still $1.99 a dozen. Adjusted for inflation for 2024 dollars, those opening weekend figures look like this...

The Lion King 2019: $237 Million
Beauty & The Beast 2017: $225 Million
Alice in Wonderland 2010: $168 Million
Aladdin 2019: $113 Million
Maleficent 2014: $92 Million
Cinderella 2015: $90 Million
Dumbo 2019: $57 Million
Maleficent 2 2019: $46 Million

If the expert predictions are accurate, it would seem that Mufasa is headed towards a debut weekend at the box office of something between Dumbo and Maleficent 2. That's very troubling if you are a Sharp Pencil Boy in Burbank.

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[LittleBuford]

I think the Wizard of Oz and the Wicked musical are simply much more popular in America than overseas, which is why Wicked is a phenomenon in the U.S. and flopping/underperforming in overseas countries. Similar thing happened earlier this year with Twisters doing great in the U.S. but poorly overseas.

It’s a bit dismaying as a non-American to see posts like yours that lump all non-US countries together in this way. Wicked is doing very well in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and Korea. One can’t just reductively speak of the “overseas” market as if it’s a monolith.

ETA: The Wizard of Oz is also extremely popular in the UK (I can’t speak for other markets). It was a staple of Christmas broadcasting when I was growing up.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a bit dismaying as a non-American to see posts like yours that lump all non-US countries together in this way. Wicked is doing very well in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and Korea. One can’t just reductively speak of the “overseas” market as if it’s a monolith.

ETA: The Wizard of Oz is also extremely popular in the UK (I can’t speak for other markets). It was a staple of Christmas broadcasting when I was growing up.

Not to mention as I posted previously, the musical toured quite successfully in many overseas markets around the world.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

I think the Wizard of Oz and the Wicked musical are simply much more popular in America than overseas, which is why Wicked is a phenomenon in the U.S. and flopping/underperforming in overseas countries. Similar thing happened earlier this year with Twisters doing great in the U.S. but poorly overseas.

There's a possibility, however, that Wicked Part 2 might do better overseas if foreign audiences discover the film more in streaming. I don't think other countries necessarily hate Wicked, they just don't have nostalgia for the IP.

Wicked fortunately kept it's budget fairly low for this type of movie by shooting both films back-to-back, so it will be profitable regardless.

2-hour and 40-minute runtime of Wicked doesn’t help its box office performance, even though it was well-received and a well-done movie. longer runtime limits the number of showings per day… makes it harder to sell tickets.
In comparison, Barbie and Moana 2 each run about 1 hour and 40 minutes.

 

[Ghost93]

It’s a bit dismaying as a non-American to see posts like yours that lump all non-US countries together in this way. Wicked is doing very well in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and Korea. One can’t just reductively speak of the “overseas” market as if it’s a monolith.

ETA: The Wizard of Oz is also extremely popular in the UK (I can’t speak for other markets). It was a staple of Christmas broadcasting when I was growing up.

I'm mainly talking about countries not in the anglosphere and looking at the international box office as a whole — not country by country. Most big movies make more money overseas than they do domestically, and Wicked is different in that regard.

I WISH Wicked was doing better internationally as it's a great movie (my personal fave of the year), and much, MUCH better than Moana 2, which deserves none of the money its getting.

2-hour and 40-minute runtime of Wicked doesn’t help its box office performance, even though it was well-received and a well-done movie. longer runtime limits the number of showings per day… makes it harder to sell tickets.
In comparison, Barbie and Moana 2 each run about 1 hour and 40 minutes.

I don't think so when Avatar, Avengers Endgame, Avatar the Way of Water and Titanic are all in the top four highest grossing movies of all time and are all 3 hours long. People will sit through a long movie if it's good and they think it's an event. And in the U.S., that's how people are treating Wicked.

Japan is a potential big market for Wicked, but the movie won't release there until March.