Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I don’t know Moana 2’s top endpoint, but barely breaking even (~500-600) seems laughably wrong.

This is an exceptionally popular franchise that is not ‘over indexed’ popular. It’s still incredibly popular. Interest is through the roof. At the same time I think Inside Out 2’s final take was so incredibly beyond expected. If you asked me in January what the bigger franchise was, no hesitation: Moana. But that’s way too high of benchmark now to demand out of this film, not knowing its quality.

Barely breaking even is way too low and betrays a lack of acknowledgement about how strong this one is.

Quoting myself from October just to make it clear I’ve in no way changed my tune. Top end numbers are looking out based on the films quality. The bottom end predictions though have already been surpassed by week two and were equally poor takes.

 

[TalkingHead]

Lion King: the faces weren't expressive enough.. Too realistic!!

Mufasa: the faces are too expressive.. Too fantastical!!

Y’know it’s also possible both approaches have stylistic issues.

 

[TalkingHead]

It's a lose lose situation. Characters lacking facial expressions like in the remake make for an emotional uninvolving movie, but putting human facial expressions on photorealistic animals looks ridiculous. If Disney hadn't despised hand drawn animation nowadays, they could have done a hand drawn film with this story and I'm sure it would have been successful.

Or the prequel could’ve been rendered with less realism, skipping the photorealistic style entirely, but that would’ve defeated the purpose of trying to cash in on the remake.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Y’know it’s also possible both approaches have stylistic issues.

Maybe audience just too demanding. Maybe they're just like my father, too bold. Maybe they're just like my mother, she's never satisfied. Why do we scream at each other?

 

[MisterPenguin]

All the popular CGI 'animated' movies with talking animals have human-expressing faces. E.g. the latest Puss 'n Boots which got critical acclaim and did well at the Box Office.

For some reason, when Disney does this, it's criticized.

For some reason.

 

[Farerb]

All the popular CGI 'animated' movies with talking animals have human-expressing faces. E.g. the latest Puss 'n Boots which got critical acclaim and did well at the Box Office.

For some reason, when Disney does this, it's criticized.

For some reason.

They are not photorealistic animals. No one criticized Zootopia about this as well.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Moana 2 isn’t passing the billion mark solely on the back of Domestic, International performance is what will get it there.

What happens if it does not hit a billion?

 

[LittleBuford]

All the popular CGI 'animated' movies with talking animals have human-expressing faces. E.g. the latest Puss 'n Boots which got critical acclaim and did well at the Box Office.

For some reason, when Disney does this, it's criticized.

For some reason.

This is a bit silly. I’m right there with you in the so-called Pixie Duster camp and I hate the style they’ve used for Mufasa. Without good evidence, you really shouldn’t accuse people of being disingenuous or agenda-driven just because they express opinions you happen to disagree with.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

They are not photorealistic animals. No one criticized Zootopia about this as well.

Maybe they didn’t criticize Zootopia for it because it was an actual animated movie, not a photorealistic fake animated movie.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

What happens if it does not hit a billion?

It will.

I’m not thinking about if it won’t.

I’m gonna believe it will because it has no actually animated movie competition until Dog Man.

 

[DKampy]

Maybe audience just too demanding. Maybe they're just like my father, too bold. Maybe they're just like my mother, she's never satisfied. Why do we scream at each other?

The answer is simple… This is what it sounds like when Doves cry

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The answer is simple… This is what it sounds like when Doves cry

Or when pigeons take flight once Mike Tyson delivers a KO in his fights.

 

[BrianLo]

What happens if it does not hit a billion?

I mean, technically nothing. The company is bragging about it regardless. It would be a pretty steep drop off to not follow through considering it hit 600 in 10 days.

It probably takes the gas slightly off Moana 3; but that would require horrendous uptake on D+ I think for them to cancel that at this juncture.

I think it’s the live action film that seems more of a poor choice. That likely would never have been approved had they always intended to do a Moana sequel theatrically.

 

[TP2000]

What happens if it does not hit a billion?

I make myself a dry martini with a twist, toast myself, and say "Not bad for an old guy who hates math..."

I mean, technically nothing.

Agreed. Moana 2 already broke even as of this past week. I think we should probably pull those current profit numbers together on Monday or Tuesday once this weekend's numbers come in globally.

I just don't see the momentum for it to get to a Billion on its current trajectory. I could be very wrong, and families will flock back to see it from December 26th to January 5th globally, and it will get there. But my gut tells me that won't happen.

Quite frankly, I'm more worried about the box office prospects for Mufasa. My Pop Culture Radar (Popdar?) after a Target run in town recently left me feeling there's not much cultural buzz for that one. And I'm sure Mufasa cost Burbank much more than the modest $150 Million Made For TV budget that Moana 2 conveniently had.

 

[BrianLo]

I make myself a dry martini with a twist, toast myself, and say "Not bad for an old guy who hates math..."



Agreed. Moana 2 already broke even as of this past week. I think we should probably pull those current profit numbers together on Monday or Tuesday once this weekend's numbers come in globally.

I just don't see the momentum for it to get to a Billion on its current trajectory. I could be very wrong, and families will flock back to see it from December 26th to January 5th globally, and it will get there. But my gut tells me that won't happen.

Quite frankly, I'm more worried about the box office prospects for Mufasa. My Pop Culture Radar (Popdar?) after a Target run in town recently left me feeling there's not much cultural buzz for that one. And I'm sure Mufasa cost Burbank much more than the modest $150 Million Made For TV budget that Moana 2 conveniently had.

I don’t disagree with anything except to say the families showing up over Christmas is expected with how these WDAS films typically do. You’ve only really had the pleasure of experiencing two busts out of the gate and weren’t around for all these films last decades.

So more so I’m siding on if the families don’t show that’s actually the more unexpected and disappointing outcome for them. It would infer the film had even worse word of mouth than the CinemaScore would have figured. Particularly since the movie opened so high, that’s really bad legs. The average legs of these holiday films are typically higher than summer (often 5-6X) not that Moana has that potential anymore.

Ps I’m also terribly dubious on Mufasa.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Almost all CGI offends me in some way. The notable exception is a background, whether it be a cityscape, a forest, etc. Old movies used to just have a painted backdrop. This is really no different.

Otherwise, I find it lazy and subpar. I also find other new tech similarly subpar. Telephone calls were much more reliable on a landline. Streaming services are nowhere near as convenient as a cable TV package. The old Soarin’ didn’t have bent images.

With all that said, you either accept the premise and style of a movie at the beginning or you don’t. If you don’t, you probably shouldn’t see it. You also probably shouldn’t complain about it. You should go about your day and stop fricking whining.

There are pros and cons to hand drawn animation, anime style, computerized animation, stop motion animation, and CGI.

Personally, I prefer the warmth of hand drawn. When I was a kid, I wanted to be a cartoonist.

I also very much enjoy all the Rankin/Bass stop Motion holiday specials. Some people can’t stand them because they don’t like the style.

I have never appreciated the anime style. I have never appreciated the computerized animation style where faces are all oddly squared off, etc.

The Lion King has never held a place of great significance for me. I have seen it once. It was fine. I like it. That’s about it.

I find myself curious about this whole backstory idea. I’d like to see how they fill in the blanks. I’ve seen the previews, and yes, it’s CGI. Therefore I have no expectation of the animation being good. All CGI that you can tell is CGI is bad - just like all plastic surgery you can tell is plastic surgery is bad.

Going into it knowing that, but also knowing I’d like to see the story unfold, means I’m going to see the film, and it’s unlikely I will notice the CGI issues as much after the first 20 minutes. It’s also unlikely I will put it at the top of my list of complaints if I don’t like the movie. It would have to be utterly unwatchable for me to say that, because I’m already expecting it to be irksome. My expectations are realistic.

If my schedule allows, I’d like to see it in a theater. My review would likely be based mostly on the story itself, not if some little CGI detail is off.

I find the complaining about it as bothersome as the CGI itself. Many movies look stupid with CGI, that’s life now. This film would be no better or worse than the others for it. Judge the story.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Looks like Moana 2 was able to stay #1 with a drop below 50% with $26.6M (48%).

Its worldwide total is now at $717M worldwide. So it should hit $1B by the new year, with the holidays giving this movie an advantage.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

For my 2 cents (and that's what it is worth, lol), I thought the animals in Mufasa in the trailers looked "off", just all wrong for some reason I can't put my finger on. I kept looking at them and wondering what is wrong? They just dont' look "right" to me.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think CGI is more of a “look” test than anything. There’s high quality CGI that looks ”off” and bad quality CGI that “works”, and there’s movies like Black Panther that have mostly amazing CGI while also having a CGI car scene that looked horrible. I think the live action Lion King falls into that category also, I loved the animation style but occasionally something would look “off”, overall I really enjoyed it though.

If something looks “right” our brains typically accept it, if it looks “off” our brains typically question it.

 

[TP2000]

Looks like Moana 2 was able to stay #1 with a drop below 50% with $26.6M (48%).

We should probably just round that up to $27 Million. But even then, that's a tad weaker than I had thought it would do this weekend, it's last weekend unopposed by Mufasa or any hedgehogs. On Friday, I said...

Assuming the trend remains the same, at least domestically, it looks like Moana 2 won't break $30 Million this weekend (Friday to Sunday, 12/13-15). Perhaps $28 Million domestically this weekend?

The same trendlines of 50%-ish box office dropoffs week over week are holding overseas too, and that would seem to show that overseas is heading towards a final tally by early January of around $450 Million or so.

Now that it's already broken even, tomorrow or Tuesday when final weekend tallies are in from overseas and the USA, we can do an update on the profit that Moana 2 has already pulled in on its slow late December march towards.... $900 Million globally?

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com