Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.

I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time.

Not a surprise based on the lackluster Cinemascore.

Tho, there is still time for any of the songs to go viral over Christmas break.

 

[Chi84]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.

I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.

Zegler’s new film lol.

Just to be clear, which Zegler movie are you referring to?

 

[easyrowrdw]

I was just saying that it’s often the case. I’m less concerned about spin than accuracy and credibility when you’re quoting anonymous sources.

People who have been recently laid off could possibly hold a grudge and exaggerate or worse if there’s no way they can be held accountable.

Okay. The original word was spin, which is what I responded to. But you weren’t the original commenter so who knows what was meant. Thank you for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it.

 

[brideck]

Just to be clear, which Zegler movie are you referring to?

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

 

[Chi84]

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

Thanks. I wasn’t even sure. People are twisting themselves in knots over Rachel Zegler. It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.

 

[Disney Irish]

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

I saw it last weekend also, and thought it was pretty good for that 90s campy horror nostalgia they were going for. I was like, dude I remember that and that and that, etc. As someone who lived thru Y2K as a tech person, it was a good time and suggest people check it out.

 

[brideck]

I saw it last weekend also, and thought it was pretty good for that 90s campy horror nostalgia they were going for. I was like, dude I remember that and that and that, etc. As someone who lived thru Y2K as a tech person, it was a good time and suggest people check it out.

Ditto, really. Movies like this so often have a load of things that feel out of place/out of time in them, but this one pretty much ticked all of those boxes for me -- the slang, the music, the props (I definitely was gifted a set of devil sticks in the late '90s). The only thing that felt weird to me (though I was never a Mac guy, so I can stand to be corrected) was the showcasing of iMac + Real Player. Really would've thought everything would've just been QuickTime on a Mac.

 

[Tha Realest]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.

It’s tough to say. Maybe the “lots of people keep watching it on D+” isn’t indicative of the level of popularity or support many attribute to it. Could also be the oxygen sucked up by Wicked. Also, by many accounts it’s not that good of a film, so maybe word of mouth and these impressions have stifled repeat viewings or encouraging others to see it.

I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.

No it does not. I think they’re ready to be done with that film.

 

[TalkingHead]

Saw a Mufasa tv spot and maybe I’d missed it in the trailer but some of the animal facial expressions look incredibly goofy (lowercase g). Very curious what kind of reaction it gets.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Lion King: the faces weren't expressive enough.. Too realistic!!

Mufasa: the faces are too expressive.. Too fantastical!!

 

[Farerb]

Saw a Mufasa tv spot and maybe I’d missed it in the trailer but some of the animal facial expressions look incredibly goofy (lowercase g). Very curious what kind of reaction it gets.

It's a lose lose situation. Characters lacking facial expressions like in the remake make for an emotional uninvolving movie, but putting human facial expressions on photorealistic animals looks ridiculous. If Disney hadn't despised hand drawn animation nowadays, they could have done a hand drawn film with this story and I'm sure it would have been successful.

 

[BrianLo]

I just want to say that when we get into these top end measures, the final tally’s aren’t totally reliable as a measure of the franchises popularity. IO2 was an aberration that defies its core franchises strength. No one thinks Inside Out is a bigger franchise than Frozen for example, including Disney. Its movie completely overindexed.

1.5B is a completely unrealistic measure for an animated film that is more an alignment of the stars with some secret sauce going on at international markets.

Moana 2 is doing quite well, but it is being held back a bit by its CinemaScore. Wicked is doing amazing, domestically at least. Both are going to look stronger than they currently are coming off the Christmas holiday run when they have an atypical performance compared to movies released during the rest of the year.

Moana 2 isn’t passing the billion mark solely on the back of Domestic, International performance is what will get it there.

 

[BrianLo]

I don’t know Moana 2’s top endpoint, but barely breaking even (~500-600) seems laughably wrong.

This is an exceptionally popular franchise that is not ‘over indexed’ popular. It’s still incredibly popular. Interest is through the roof. At the same time I think Inside Out 2’s final take was so incredibly beyond expected. If you asked me in January what the bigger franchise was, no hesitation: Moana. But that’s way too high of benchmark now to demand out of this film, not knowing its quality.

Barely breaking even is way too low and betrays a lack of acknowledgement about how strong this one is.

Quoting myself from October just to make it clear I’ve in no way changed my tune. Top end numbers are looking out based on the films quality. The bottom end predictions though have already been surpassed by week two and were equally poor takes.

 

[TalkingHead]

Lion King: the faces weren't expressive enough.. Too realistic!!

Mufasa: the faces are too expressive.. Too fantastical!!

Y’know it’s also possible both approaches have stylistic issues.

 

[TalkingHead]

It's a lose lose situation. Characters lacking facial expressions like in the remake make for an emotional uninvolving movie, but putting human facial expressions on photorealistic animals looks ridiculous. If Disney hadn't despised hand drawn animation nowadays, they could have done a hand drawn film with this story and I'm sure it would have been successful.

Or the prequel could’ve been rendered with less realism, skipping the photorealistic style entirely, but that would’ve defeated the purpose of trying to cash in on the remake.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Y’know it’s also possible both approaches have stylistic issues.

Maybe audience just too demanding. Maybe they're just like my father, too bold. Maybe they're just like my mother, she's never satisfied. Why do we scream at each other?

 

[MisterPenguin]

All the popular CGI 'animated' movies with talking animals have human-expressing faces. E.g. the latest Puss 'n Boots which got critical acclaim and did well at the Box Office.

For some reason, when Disney does this, it's criticized.

For some reason.

 

[Farerb]

All the popular CGI 'animated' movies with talking animals have human-expressing faces. E.g. the latest Puss 'n Boots which got critical acclaim and did well at the Box Office.

For some reason, when Disney does this, it's criticized.

For some reason.

They are not photorealistic animals. No one criticized Zootopia about this as well.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Moana 2 isn’t passing the billion mark solely on the back of Domestic, International performance is what will get it there.

What happens if it does not hit a billion?