Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Don’t you guys get exhausted saying the same thing over and over? And then expecting a different result?

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

 

[Chi84]

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

 

[Chi84]

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

 

[Disney Irish]

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

 

[TP2000]

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

Except there was no correlation between how things were happening in the Parks and the Studios, especially in the year range you were talking about.

And if you hate math and statistics why do you insist on trying to do it here? Why not let those that are good at it and like to do it in this context, like @BrianLo, provide the numbers for you and then you can comment on them if you'd like.

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

View attachment 829719

You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

 

[brideck]

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

 

[TP2000]

You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[Disney Irish]

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

View attachment 829726

Yep, exactly my point.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Or you can let people that are good at this sort of thing, and who actually has real interest in the Box Office (and not just a feigning interest) and understands the historical markets and metrics do it and provide analytics.

Basically let others do the homework for you, and you can come comments on it with all that wit and snark you like to use.

Because as was just pointed out by @brideck and @BrianLo mentioned similarly before them, if things hold like Frozen 2 we'll see Moana 2 likely to end relatively the same domestically give or take +/- $10M or so. Which still puts it on a path to potentially hit $1B by the end of its run.

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

It’s all about getting attention. It’s just kind of sad.

I guess everyone has a different opinion of how to deal with this.

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.


We can see today how Frozen 2 hits the post thanksgiving slowdown.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

 

[BrianLo]

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

Ya. And for @TP2000 I was like wait until next weekend… but really what I meant was wait 15 seconds and the numbers edited in Sunday making Moana 2 back in the running. The movies are a bit out of lock step

I think he knows I’m joking, the timing for the numbers update was funny.

 

[TP2000]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

That's a good point about Frozen II's calendar timing for Thanksgiving in 2019. Thanksgiving was so darn late this year; I think this was mathematically the latest in November the 4th Thursday could ever be.

I'm thinking Moana 2 will get to around $900-ish Million globally by the time Christmas vacation is over, barring some sudden surge in second-viewings both domestically and overseas. But the overseas box office is more mysterious to me and is a wild card personally; I have no idea what the school calendars look like in Europe for Christmas/New Year's, for example.

I was watching a French cooking guy on YouTube that I subscribe to, and he came out with his "Thanksgiving" recipes a few weeks ago. The guy is a Frenchman cooking in France! And I thought "Why the heck are you doing Thanksgiving?" It's amazing how strong American culture is. I wouldn't be surprised if they started taking a long weekend off in late November, just because.

They're French, after all.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Golden Globes: Nominations List

'Emilia Pérez' leads the film nominees with 10, followed by 'The Brutalist,' 'Conclave,' 'Anora' and 'The Substance.' 'The Bear' leads the TV noms, followed by 'Only Murders in the Building' and 'Shogun.'

www.hollywoodreporter.com

The Walt Disney Company Earns 35 Golden Globe® Award Nominations Across its Film and Television Studios, Streaming Services and Broadcast - The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company proudly announces 35 Golden Globe® Award nominations across its content brands and studios.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

I owe you an apology. I’m dealing with blatant misrepresentations in another thread and I completely understand now.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

 

[DKampy]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

I am not sure Sony cares…I believe their main goal is to hold onto spidy’s rights….and this little experiment may have still been profitable…as all 3 venom movies made a decent profit…and the others….the budget was not out of hand compared to most superhero movies….I am sure they will take a break….and start anew just to hold onto the rights