Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

It was only two (2) cruises, with two post-cruise Immersion Trips, plus a family Thanksgiving, spread over the entire autumn. And you can talk to HR, because I know for a fact all those vacations were pre-approved by senior management.

What big Disney movie did I miss since Labor Day? Moana 2 is the first Burbank release in months and months.



Yes, which is exactly why I said this...



My hunch, based on about an 8 second glance at a chart online and some overseas box office numbers compared to Beauty & The Beast in 2017, could be totally wrong. And Moana 2 will hit a Billion globally by Christmas Day and then coast towards $1.2 Billion by Martin Luther King weekend in January.

But it needs to regain just a bit of steam to pull that off. If it keeps losing box office at the rate of the past 7 days it won't get past $900 Million.

Again, the good news is that it's already profitable, owing to its "cheap" $150 Million budget as a Disney+ TV show.

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

 

[Chi84]

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

Don’t you guys get exhausted saying the same thing over and over? And then expecting a different result?

 

[DKampy]

I

What big Disney movie did I miss since Labor Day? Moana 2 is the first Burbank release in months and months

great look at the box office in a way you can frame it to fit your narrative that Disney needs Moana to make a billion dollars at the box office while ignoring That Disney has the 2 biggest movies of the year in Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2…. As well as being the top studio of the year

I have my own hunch…. There is a reason you waited till now to come back…. You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

 

[Chi84]

great look at the box office in a way you can frame it to fit your narrative that Disney needs Moana to make a billion dollars at the box office while ignoring That Disney has the 2 biggest movies of the year in Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2…. As well as being the top studio of the year

I have my own hunch…. There is a reason you waited till now to come back…. You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

Once again - different movie, same result.

 

[TalkingHead]

It’s 10(?) days until Mufasa opens. Guessing that’ll cannibalize some of Moana’s business assuming it gets similar or better reviews. (Moana 2 is down to 62 on RT and, less of a general audience metric but still telling, 2.9 on Letterboxd).

 

[Disney Irish]

Don’t you guys get exhausted saying the same thing over and over? And then expecting a different result?

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

 

[Chi84]

Its not for him, though I could be surprised and he changes. We have new members all the time; and if all they see is his posts with no counter they would assume that he has some insight to the box office and just assume his posts as fact, when its not. Its the same reason that others also counter his posts or any others counter mine or anyone else's here.

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’ll take new posters a page or two to figure it out but that’s just my opinion.

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

 

[Chi84]

You're making assumptions about posters that can't be made. Not every poster has the same ability to sniff out what you or others do, for example we have young posters and even posters who are on the spectrum.

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

 

[Disney Irish]

I suppose you’re right but some substances are easier to sniff out than others.

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

 

[TP2000]

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

You’re hoping you can say “wow… Moana 2 can’t even break a Billion…. Which should have been and easy slam dunk”…. And are expecting Mufasa to underperform

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sometimes it takes me a full 20 seconds to spot a trendline on a chart. I hate math, and hated statistics even more in high school, so it's not a natural skill for me.

But as the Parks division fell into disrepair and began tripping over themselves to lower expectations and cut back on products and offerings, the huge numbers from the Studio divisions became really interesting to me in 2022-2023.

Except there was no correlation between how things were happening in the Parks and the Studios, especially in the year range you were talking about.

And if you hate math and statistics why do you insist on trying to do it here? Why not let those that are good at it and like to do it in this context, like @BrianLo, provide the numbers for you and then you can comment on them if you'd like.

I'm not the one who started the Billion Dollar Talk on Moana 2. I'm just the guy who looked at the global box office thus far, compared it to previous Billion+ Princess movies, and said "Uh, gang? Are we sure it's going to break a Billion?"

Moana 2 very well may hit the Billion mark. The Christmas school schedule seems to be a big factor there, but at least in my corner of America the kids don't get out of school until December 20th. Maybe it will be the movie that parents and kids want to see again the theater during Christmas break, and it has great legs through late December?

On its current trajectory though, it needs to regain some steam to hit a Billion globally. It can't keep dropping off 50% each week like it did last week. It seems to need legs.

View attachment 829719

You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

 

[brideck]

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

 

[TP2000]

You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[Disney Irish]

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

View attachment 829726

Yep, exactly my point.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Or you can let people that are good at this sort of thing, and who actually has real interest in the Box Office (and not just a feigning interest) and understands the historical markets and metrics do it and provide analytics.

Basically let others do the homework for you, and you can come comments on it with all that wit and snark you like to use.

Because as was just pointed out by @brideck and @BrianLo mentioned similarly before them, if things hold like Frozen 2 we'll see Moana 2 likely to end relatively the same domestically give or take +/- $10M or so. Which still puts it on a path to potentially hit $1B by the end of its run.

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

It’s all about getting attention. It’s just kind of sad.

I guess everyone has a different opinion of how to deal with this.

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.


We can see today how Frozen 2 hits the post thanksgiving slowdown.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

 

[BrianLo]

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

Ya. And for @TP2000 I was like wait until next weekend… but really what I meant was wait 15 seconds and the numbers edited in Sunday making Moana 2 back in the running. The movies are a bit out of lock step

I think he knows I’m joking, the timing for the numbers update was funny.