Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

It's weird that there would be any concern over Moana 2's performance.

It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

Because Moana has been viewed as one of the most valuable properties in recent memories.

Iger is fond of using the “brand deposits / brand withdrawals” phrasing in referring to variable quality in their offerings. A mediocre film which diminishes the brand is a brand withdrawal, no matter how much money they make. The DTV sequels of the 90’s are a perfect example of this.

 

[TP2000]

48% is just below the 46% that Frozen II had on the same calendar week, so it loses a little ground there. I'd estimate a ceiling of around $450m domestically now. [The comp for next weekend would be a drop of only 32% as kids & adults start to get out of school/work for the year.]

There are so many markets that I wouldn't know the first thing about trying to realistically estimate the international take, but it has finally kicked up over 50% from overseas, which is good news. I'd guess we're looking at something like $950m WW at this point with room to grow if the international legs stay good.

At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...

Well, I could be totally wrong and it's a movie families will want to go see again in theaters during the Christmas vacation at the end of December. That could solve its problem of fairly weak legs in early December. But on its current trajectory it seems like it's headed towards $850 to $950 Million globally by the time the kids go back to school on January 6th.

Who knows? The good news for Burbank is that with its Made-For-Disney+ modest budget of "only" $150 Million, it's already tipped into profitability this weekend from the global box office. I just don't see the momentum for it getting to, let alone past, $1 Billion at the global box office in the next four weeks.

But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.

I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...

Oh it’ll get to $1B alright.

He doesn't actually pay attention to anything, so don't worry about it, Moana will get to $1B it'll just be a matter of how much over $1B it'll go.

Maybe instead of taking 8 seconds to glace at a chart; you take time to actually understand the market and realize that what others tell you might be more accurate than the 8 seconds you take.

 

[Tha Realest]

At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...



But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.

I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...

Don’t forget the Disney+ math, which gets added to the global box office numbers…

 

[TP2000]

It's weird that there would be any concern over Moana 2's performance.

It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.

There's no concern about Moana 2 breaking even and pulling in a modest profit for Burbank. It already broke even last week, and they'll make some solid money on it.

The topic of conversation, not really a "concern", is whether it will be a Billion Dollar Baby the likes of Frozen II or The Lion King from five years ago. Moana 2 has had weak legs globally after its successful Thanksgiving debut, and it appears to be on a glidepath for something less than a Billion globally. That's all.

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

The weakness in comparing global box office of Moana 2 to Wicked is that Wicked absolutely bombed overseas. Wicked had very small box office in foreign lands, except for modest box office interest in the UK. A third of its total overseas box office came just from the UK. I guessed last week that the UK only showed up in limited numbers owing to the London theater scene, where Wicked would be a known property.

Otherwise, the foreigners don't seem to be the big Wizard Of Oz fans that us Americans are. And Wicked is a nothingburger for them. So it's very easy for Moana 2, or any movie really, to do better overseas than Wicked.

 

[Disney Irish]

At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...



But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.

I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...

Current tracking has both Mufasa and Sonic opening fairly light ($50M range), so both may not end up taking a huge bite out of Moana's sails the rest of the year. Most places I've looked still have Moana 2 hitting at least $1.05B+.

 

[TP2000]

Here's the revised final box office from this past weekend, domestically. Of note is that Moana 2 was still in 4,000 theaters. How many theaters does it lose this Friday with arrival of Christmas tentpole movies to America's multiplexes?

Moana 2 crossed over into profitability last weekend, owing to it's very economical (for Burbank) $150 Million production budget based on its Disney+ TV show roots. If it had cost the usual $200+ Million budget Burbank spends routinely on tentpole movies, the story of profit for Moana 2 would be very different.

From the TP2000 Global Command Center, I've had Mr. Johnson pull together these numbers for us based on the 60%/40% box office take from domestic/overseas, and an assumed marketing budget that was half of the production budget.

Moana 2: $150 Production, $75 Marketing, $202 Domestic, $152 Overseas = $129 Million Profit and counting

 

[TP2000]

Current tracking has both Mufasa and Sonic opening fairly light ($50M range)...

Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!

Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.

The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.

Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!

 

[brideck]

Of note is that Moana 2 was still in 4,000 theaters. How many theaters does it lose this Friday with arrival of Christmas tentpole movies to America's multiplexes?

Probably ~400. What it will lose, though, is quite a few screenings. Probably on the order of 50%, give or take. That'll be easier to see tomorrow night when the big chains set their schedules for the upcoming weekend.

 

[Disney Irish]

Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!

Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.

The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.

Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!

After the rebound year that Disney has had I don't think they much care if Mufasa does better than break-even or not. And at this point I'm not even sure they care all that much if it even breaks even.

 

[DKampy]

After the rebound year that Disney has had I don't think they much care if Mufasa does better than break-even or not. And at this point I'm not even sure they care all that much if it even breaks even.

I agree… Disney is the top studio this year…almost every movie they released was profitable…. It’s very rare for a studio to have all winners in a given year…That being said… it will be interesting to see what the reviews are tomorrow…. I could see a world of it’s good… The Lion King is a word of mouth hit…. This is the leggiest season of the year…. The first Aquaman opened to just over 60 million and it became a Billon dollar movie… and personally I did not care for that film

 

[Ghost93]

After the rebound year that Disney has had I don't think they much care if Mufasa does better than break-even or not. And at this point I'm not even sure they care all that much if it even breaks even.

If Mufassa is a good movie, I want it to do well. If it's bad, I want it to flop. The 2019 Lion King was abysmal and one of the worst moviegoing experiences of my life. I've been skeptical about Mufassa since it was announced, but the talents of Barry Jenkins and Lin Manuel Miranda haven recently given me some slight hope that it might actually turn out to be a good movie. I've already listened to the Mufassa soundtrack a few times and have grown to like a lot of the songs. I could not say the same for Moana 2!

We should have some idea tomorrow when the review embargo lifts.

 

[Farerb]

After the rebound year that Disney has had I don't think they much care if Mufasa does better than break-even or not. And at this point I'm not even sure they care all that much if it even breaks even.

They should! Snow White is just around the corner.

 

[Disney Irish]

They should! Snow White is just around the corner.

Different year, so why would they care about that right now if it doesn't count toward any totals for this year. Plus that may not end up doing as bad as some think it will. If it ends up being a fairly faithful rendition it may end up doing ok.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Different year, so why would they care about that right now if it doesn't count toward any totals for this year. Plus that may not end up doing as bad as some think it will. If it ends up being a fairly faithful rendition it may end up doing ok.

Yeah, I wouldn’t be so sure about Snow White being faithful to the original.

 

[Disney Irish]

I agree… Disney is the top studio this year…almost every movie they released was profitable…. It’s very rare for a studio to have all winners in a given year…That being said… it will be interesting to see what the reviews are tomorrow…. I could see a world of it’s good… The Lion King is a word of mouth hit…. This is the leggiest season of the year…. The first Aquaman opened to just over 60 million and it became a Billon dollar movie… and personally I did not care for that film

TLK opened to $191M in 2019, so it roared out of the gate. If I was to predict for Mufasa, I'd say it opens low and becomes a slow burn if the reviews are good.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, I wouldn’t be so sure about Snow White being faithful to the original.

I said fairly faithful, I didn't say a direct retelling.

They obviously have to expand the story in order to make it a 2hr+ movie, as the original is only 83 minutes long, plus some slight changes to modernize it. But lets not clog up this thread with Snow White talk and get it shutdown like the other thread. We can talk more about that movie when it comes out in March.

 

[Miss Rori]

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

That's an interesting thing this year - films like that, Dune Part Two, and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (which like Wicked didn't rustle up much international business) seem to have been more memorable for audiences than the billion-dollar club of Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and (probably!) Moana 2. It's good going for Disney financially but I don't think they've had a movie that really "stuck" with people since Encanto.

 

[BrianLo]

It's weird that there would be any concern over Moana 2's performance.

It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.

It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.

It's already the fourth highest WDAS film ever. We already know it's pretty much domestically going to be number 1 or 2. A very financially smart move and at least it was reasonably watched to launch their third movie off of.

(2nd place Frozen is 400)

How far she goes is pretty much Internationally driven now and they are more clearly starting to diverge in terms of International legging further.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!

Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.

The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.

Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!

Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, they did slash some money from the budget of 2019’s Lion King, but Mufasa: The Lion King cost $250M, $10M less than 2019 Lion King, according to Vulture.

Not sure what Vulture article you're looking at, but the one where they interview Jenkins back on Dec 5th doesn't have a budget figure for Mufasa. They talk about his next film and how it won't be a $250M movie, that is not confirmation that is the actual budget for Mufasa. So I wouldn't use that as the actual budget until its confirmed by Disney or one of the trades.