Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
I actually have not seen the live action. Maybe we’ll watch it on our Disney trip tomorrow in preparation for Mufasa!
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
48% is just below the 46% that Frozen II had on the same calendar week, so it loses a little ground there. I'd estimate a ceiling of around $450m domestically now. [The comp for next weekend would be a drop of only 32% as kids & adults start to get out of school/work for the year.]
There are so many markets that I wouldn't know the first thing about trying to realistically estimate the international take, but it has finally kicked up over 50% from overseas, which is good news. I'd guess we're looking at something like $950m WW at this point with room to grow if the international legs stay good.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
I think there will be room for the international legs to grow.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
It's weird that there would be any concern over Moana 2's performance.
It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.
It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.
It has out grossed the original despite being a retooled streaming show. It feels like free money for Disney.
It has thus far earned more worldwide than Wicked, a movie that feels much more like a cultural event than Moana 2.
Just got back from seeing Searchlight's Nightbench. My spouse and I really enjoyed it despite (because of?) our not having kids. Feels like mandatory viewing for parents of young kids to help get them on the same page with each other. Amy Adams has landed a Globe nomination, so we'll see if she manages to wrangle an Oscar nod, too, despite it's complete lack of release.
It reportedly opened in only 82 theaters last weekend (which I can believe -- it was only in 2 in my market), and is not being tracked by any of the various numbers sites.
It reportedly opened in only 82 theaters last weekend (which I can believe -- it was only in 2 in my market), and is not being tracked by any of the various numbers sites.
It’s a shame too… my wife and I were interested in that film…. We looked…. It was not playing anywhere in our market… Our local theater we visit most was even giving old Christmas movies(Christmas Vacation, Elf, Polar Express)the all day in their own theater treatment… do those films really pack the crowds despite people seeing them dozens of times and being decades old in some cases…. If they felt the need for some Christmas movie viewing… they could not combine some of those in a theater and free some space for more variety
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
I mean they’ll sell more tickets to those Christmas titles than an Amy Adams mom-dog movie with mixed reviews and a bad trailer.
That never stopped Kraven and Lord of The Rings, from going wide which reviews were worse…Amy Adam’s (one of my absolutely favorite actresses)is also getting Oscar buzz
As someone who goes to the movies every week…. I just want more variety….perhaps I am spoiled… We use to get smaller movies by me more often… until our local chain closed our less busy theater as they coild split the movies between them… and there always seemed a demand for those movies at the time….as the theaters were never emptied
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
Between Moana 2’s success and other recent high-profile events, I think it’s safe to say Disney’s output is going to become much, much “safer” and less innovative. It will be interesting to see how creative talent, particularly Feige, responds.
Farerb
Well-Known Member
When was the last time it was actually innovative anyway??
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Agree that variety is sorely lacking. My personal gripe is the amount of daily showtimes the studios are able to get for their tentpoles. No reason Moana 2 needs to have twelve screenings per day during the week at my suburban multiplex. But then again Red One is still getting a handful of shows and it’s already on Amazon for free. Very little about the theatrical business makes sense these days.
It just really comes down to market size. There is loads of variety out there, but it's only really in the biggest cities. TP gets 10+ movies, DKampy gets 30+ movies, I get 40+, my parents (in Detroit) get 50+, etc.
I don't know anything about the economics of running a theater, but it unfortunately makes a little sense to me that it would be cheaper to run a 12th showing of a movie even if only 5 people are watching it then it would to acquire an entirely different movie, add it to the schedule, and have only 5 people watch that.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Because Moana has been viewed as one of the most valuable properties in recent memories.
Iger is fond of using the “brand deposits / brand withdrawals” phrasing in referring to variable quality in their offerings. A mediocre film which diminishes the brand is a brand withdrawal, no matter how much money they make. The DTV sequels of the 90’s are a perfect example of this.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...
But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.
I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Don’t forget the Disney+ math, which gets added to the global box office numbers…At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...
But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.
I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...
TP2000
Well-Known Member
There's no concern about Moana 2 breaking even and pulling in a modest profit for Burbank. It already broke even last week, and they'll make some solid money on it.
The topic of conversation, not really a "concern", is whether it will be a Billion Dollar Baby the likes of Frozen II or The Lion King from five years ago. Moana 2 has had weak legs globally after its successful Thanksgiving debut, and it appears to be on a glidepath for something less than a Billion globally. That's all.
The weakness in comparing global box office of Moana 2 to Wicked is that Wicked absolutely bombed overseas. Wicked had very small box office in foreign lands, except for modest box office interest in the UK. A third of its total overseas box office came just from the UK. I guessed last week that the UK only showed up in limited numbers owing to the London theater scene, where Wicked would be a known property.
Otherwise, the foreigners don't seem to be the big Wizard Of Oz fans that us Americans are. And Wicked is a nothingburger for them. So it's very easy for Moana 2, or any movie really, to do better overseas than Wicked.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Current tracking has both Mufasa and Sonic opening fairly light ($50M range), so both may not end up taking a huge bite out of Moana's sails the rest of the year. Most places I've looked still have Moana 2 hitting at least $1.05B+.At $950 Million worldwide, you are at the top end of the box office range I saw for Moana 2 last week. From December 9th...
But you'll want to be very, very careful with not being a full throated Billion Dollar Booster around here.
I dared to state my personal opinion last week, based on an 8 second glance at the box office chart for Moana 2, that it seemed to be heading towards something shy of a Billion, and I got this reaction immediately...
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Here's the revised final box office from this past weekend, domestically. Of note is that Moana 2 was still in 4,000 theaters. How many theaters does it lose this Friday with arrival of Christmas tentpole movies to America's multiplexes? 
Moana 2 crossed over into profitability last weekend, owing to it's very economical (for Burbank) $150 Million production budget based on its Disney+ TV show roots. If it had cost the usual $200+ Million budget Burbank spends routinely on tentpole movies, the story of profit for Moana 2 would be very different.
From the TP2000 Global Command Center, I've had Mr. Johnson pull together these numbers for us based on the 60%/40% box office take from domestic/overseas, and an assumed marketing budget that was half of the production budget.
Moana 2: $150 Production, $75 Marketing, $202 Domestic, $152 Overseas = $129 Million Profit and counting
Moana 2 crossed over into profitability last weekend, owing to it's very economical (for Burbank) $150 Million production budget based on its Disney+ TV show roots. If it had cost the usual $200+ Million budget Burbank spends routinely on tentpole movies, the story of profit for Moana 2 would be very different.
From the TP2000 Global Command Center, I've had Mr. Johnson pull together these numbers for us based on the 60%/40% box office take from domestic/overseas, and an assumed marketing budget that was half of the production budget.
Moana 2: $150 Production, $75 Marketing, $202 Domestic, $152 Overseas = $129 Million Profit and counting
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Really? That's it for Mufasa? Oof!
Assuming that Burbank was able to slash the budget for Mufasa down to only $200 Million, that's gonna be a tough hill to climb to break even if it only opens to $50 Million the weekend before Christmas.
The previous live action Lion King in 2019 had a production budget of $260 Million. Adjusted for the rampant and still-rising inflation of the past few years, that would be a production budget of $320 Million today.
Were they able to slash over a third from the budget for Mufasa? Let's hope so. Regardless, it's going to be fun to have two whole Disney movies to track in the box office again this Christmas vacation! It's just like the old days!
