Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

That's a good point about Frozen II's calendar timing for Thanksgiving in 2019. Thanksgiving was so darn late this year; I think this was mathematically the latest in November the 4th Thursday could ever be.

I'm thinking Moana 2 will get to around $900-ish Million globally by the time Christmas vacation is over, barring some sudden surge in second-viewings both domestically and overseas. But the overseas box office is more mysterious to me and is a wild card personally; I have no idea what the school calendars look like in Europe for Christmas/New Year's, for example.

I was watching a French cooking guy on YouTube that I subscribe to, and he came out with his "Thanksgiving" recipes a few weeks ago. The guy is a Frenchman cooking in France! And I thought "Why the heck are you doing Thanksgiving?" It's amazing how strong American culture is. I wouldn't be surprised if they started taking a long weekend off in late November, just because.

They're French, after all.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Golden Globes: Nominations List

'Emilia Pérez' leads the film nominees with 10, followed by 'The Brutalist,' 'Conclave,' 'Anora' and 'The Substance.' 'The Bear' leads the TV noms, followed by 'Only Murders in the Building' and 'Shogun.'

www.hollywoodreporter.com

The Walt Disney Company Earns 35 Golden Globe® Award Nominations Across its Film and Television Studios, Streaming Services and Broadcast - The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company proudly announces 35 Golden Globe® Award nominations across its content brands and studios.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

I owe you an apology. I’m dealing with blatant misrepresentations in another thread and I completely understand now.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

 

[DKampy]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

I am not sure Sony cares…I believe their main goal is to hold onto spidy’s rights….and this little experiment may have still been profitable…as all 3 venom movies made a decent profit…and the others….the budget was not out of hand compared to most superhero movies….I am sure they will take a break….and start anew just to hold onto the rights

 

[Ghost93]

Kraven was very bad and dumb, but I had a fun time with it. Like Madame Web, it often ventured into unintentional comedy territory.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

Rumors are that Sony is putting a pause on all non-Spidey related spiderverse films. Which means only Spidey stuff will be with Tom Holland in the MCU and Miles Morales Spidey in animation and maybe live-action, which is fine by me.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, here we go into the third weekend for Moana 2. There's a couple new movies out this weekend, but nothing that would seem to take its crown in the family movie demographic. But this is the last weekend that Moana 2 has that demo all to itself, with The Lion King and Sonic The Hedgehog opening next weekend.

Here's the box office for Thursday, including a couple of Previews for this weekend.

Moana 2 really needs this to be a bonzo weekend to get back in the game if it's going to get to a Billion globally.

As a compare/contrast, here's the chart on Moana 2's legs versus the chart for Wicked. It's a textbook example; Wicked has had very strong legs throughout domestically, although its overseas box office is rather dismal. But it's strong legs the past 3 weeks got it to break even this past week.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Monday February 17, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Monday February 17, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Looking ahead to next weekend and Christmas... is there a buzz for Mufasa: The Lion King? I haven't seen any commercials for it on YouTube. And last night I did a Target run in town and ran smack dab into the middle of a huge Wicked display selling all sorts of Wicked clothing and merchandise for kids and adults, but it was mostly picked over.

There was some Moana 2 stuff in the toy section. But I didn't see anything at Target for Mufasa: The Lion King. Is there buzz for this movie that I'm just not seeing yet? Someone with their finger more on the pulse of American family culture than I could tell us, I'm sure.

The last Lion King live action movie had a budget of $260 Million in 2019. Adjusted for today's ever-rising inflation, that's $320 Million in 2024 dollars. Even if they slash that 2019 budget by over a third and got Mufasa's budget down to $200 Million, that's still a hefty amount. But what if the Mufasa production budget is $250 Million or more? That's a steeper climb at the box office to break even.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Dude, just stop.

Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.

 

[coffeefan]

Superman trailer will be dropping next week and be attached to Mufasa.

I'm looking forward to this trailer to finally see what Gunn has been cooking.

 

[TP2000]

Dude, just stop.

Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.

If I'm the "dude" you are referring to there, I'm just not seeing that yet. It would take a dramatic reversal of its trendline to get there a month from now.

Assuming the trend remains the same, at least domestically, it looks like Moana 2 won't break $30 Million this weekend (Friday to Sunday, 12/13-15). Perhaps $28 Million domestically this weekend? And if that trend continues to the following weekend, when two new family tentpoles are released for Christmas vacation, Moana 2 will get less than $20 Million over its 4th weekend (Friday-Sunday, 12/20-22.

It will help that American schools will then be out for at least the next two weeks after December 20th, but I'm not sure that momentum will still be on its side by late December. Assuming there's not some mystery box office surge coming in from overseas that will differ dramatically from the USA, I just don't see how Moana 2 gets to a Billion globally by the time we get to Reverend King's holiday weekend in mid January. It seems to still be heading towards $900 Million.

It's fun to watch it play out though, isn't it? And thanks to its TV Show budget of only $150 Million it's already broken even, which for the purposes of this thread is the important thing for Burbank.

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.

I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time.

Not a surprise based on the lackluster Cinemascore.

Tho, there is still time for any of the songs to go viral over Christmas break.

 

[Chi84]

I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.

I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.

Zegler’s new film lol.

Just to be clear, which Zegler movie are you referring to?

 

[easyrowrdw]

I was just saying that it’s often the case. I’m less concerned about spin than accuracy and credibility when you’re quoting anonymous sources.

People who have been recently laid off could possibly hold a grudge and exaggerate or worse if there’s no way they can be held accountable.

Okay. The original word was spin, which is what I responded to. But you weren’t the original commenter so who knows what was meant. Thank you for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it.

 

[brideck]

Just to be clear, which Zegler movie are you referring to?

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

 

[Chi84]

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

Thanks. I wasn’t even sure. People are twisting themselves in knots over Rachel Zegler. It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.

 

[Disney Irish]

Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.

[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]

I saw it last weekend also, and thought it was pretty good for that 90s campy horror nostalgia they were going for. I was like, dude I remember that and that and that, etc. As someone who lived thru Y2K as a tech person, it was a good time and suggest people check it out.

 

[brideck]

I saw it last weekend also, and thought it was pretty good for that 90s campy horror nostalgia they were going for. I was like, dude I remember that and that and that, etc. As someone who lived thru Y2K as a tech person, it was a good time and suggest people check it out.

Ditto, really. Movies like this so often have a load of things that feel out of place/out of time in them, but this one pretty much ticked all of those boxes for me -- the slang, the music, the props (I definitely was gifted a set of devil sticks in the late '90s). The only thing that felt weird to me (though I was never a Mac guy, so I can stand to be corrected) was the showcasing of iMac + Real Player. Really would've thought everything would've just been QuickTime on a Mac.