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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Rumors are that Sony is putting a pause on all non-Spidey related spiderverse films. Which means only Spidey stuff will be with Tom Holland in the MCU and Miles Morales Spidey in animation and maybe live-action, which is fine by me.
‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview
Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...deadline.com
Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.
(Not license, they are never ceding the license)
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Okay gang, here we go into the third weekend for Moana 2. There's a couple new movies out this weekend, but nothing that would seem to take its crown in the family movie demographic. But this is the last weekend that Moana 2 has that demo all to itself, with The Lion King and Sonic The Hedgehog opening next weekend.
Here's the box office for Thursday, including a couple of Previews for this weekend.
Moana 2 really needs this to be a bonzo weekend to get back in the game if it's going to get to a
Billion globally.
As a compare/contrast, here's the chart on Moana 2's legs versus the chart for Wicked. It's a textbook example; Wicked has had very strong legs throughout domestically, although its overseas box office is rather dismal. But it's strong legs the past 3 weeks got it to break even this past week.
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thenumbers.com
Here's the box office for Thursday, including a couple of Previews for this weekend.
Moana 2 really needs this to be a bonzo weekend to get back in the game if it's going to get to a
Billion globally.As a compare/contrast, here's the chart on Moana 2's legs versus the chart for Wicked. It's a textbook example; Wicked has had very strong legs throughout domestically, although its overseas box office is rather dismal. But it's strong legs the past 3 weeks got it to break even this past week.
The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025
Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday August 24, 2025
thenumbers.com
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Looking ahead to next weekend and Christmas... is there a buzz for Mufasa: The Lion King? I haven't seen any commercials for it on YouTube. And last night I did a Target run in town and ran smack dab into the middle of a huge Wicked display selling all sorts of Wicked clothing and merchandise for kids and adults, but it was mostly picked over.
There was some Moana 2 stuff in the toy section. But I didn't see anything at Target for Mufasa: The Lion King. Is there buzz for this movie that I'm just not seeing yet? Someone with their finger more on the pulse of American family culture than I could tell us, I'm sure.
The last Lion King live action movie had a budget of $260 Million in 2019. Adjusted for today's ever-rising inflation, that's $320 Million in 2024 dollars. Even if they slash that 2019 budget by over a third and got Mufasa's budget down to $200 Million, that's still a hefty amount. But what if the Mufasa production budget is $250 Million or more? That's a steeper climb at the box office to break even.
There was some Moana 2 stuff in the toy section. But I didn't see anything at Target for Mufasa: The Lion King. Is there buzz for this movie that I'm just not seeing yet? Someone with their finger more on the pulse of American family culture than I could tell us, I'm sure.
The last Lion King live action movie had a budget of $260 Million in 2019. Adjusted for today's ever-rising inflation, that's $320 Million in 2024 dollars. Even if they slash that 2019 budget by over a third and got Mufasa's budget down to $200 Million, that's still a hefty amount. But what if the Mufasa production budget is $250 Million or more? That's a steeper climb at the box office to break even.
DisneyWarrior27
Well-Known Member
Dude, just stop.
Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.
The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.
Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.
The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
If I'm the "dude" you are referring to there, I'm just not seeing that yet. It would take a dramatic reversal of its trendline to get there a month from now.
Assuming the trend remains the same, at least domestically, it looks like Moana 2 won't break $30 Million this weekend (Friday to Sunday, 12/13-15). Perhaps $28 Million domestically this weekend? And if that trend continues to the following weekend, when two new family tentpoles are released for Christmas vacation, Moana 2 will get less than $20 Million over its 4th weekend (Friday-Sunday, 12/20-22.
It will help that American schools will then be out for at least the next two weeks after December 20th, but I'm not sure that momentum will still be on its side by late December. Assuming there's not some mystery box office surge coming in from overseas that will differ dramatically from the USA, I just don't see how Moana 2 gets to a Billion globally by the time we get to Reverend King's holiday weekend in mid January. It seems to still be heading towards $900 Million.
It's fun to watch it play out though, isn't it? And thanks to its TV Show budget of only $150 Million it's already broken even, which for the purposes of this thread is the important thing for Burbank.
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Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
thenumbers.com
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I’m a little surprised Moana isn’t doing better, given how popular the first continues to be, and the shockingly high box office of IO2, I thought this would be a serious contender for #1 animated movie of all time. I’d have guessed $1.5-2 billion just off those 2 factors.
I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.
I also wonder if Disney is concerned that Zeglers new film only pulled in $2 million in its first week from 2000 screens. That doesn’t bode well for Snow White.
Not a surprise based on the lackluster Cinemascore.
Tho, there is still time for any of the songs to go viral over Christmas break.
Chi84
Premium Member
Zegler’s new film lol.
Just to be clear, which Zegler movie are you referring to?
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easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Okay. The original word was spin, which is what I responded to. But you weren’t the original commenter so who knows what was meant. Thank you for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it.
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brideck
Well-Known Member
Y2K, I'm sure -- an off-brand (for A24) horror-comedy pitched to people with nostalgia for the late '90s. FWIW, she isn't even really the lead in this, nor is it being marketed as a Rachel Zegler vehicle. If anyone is, it's Jaeden Martell, though it's really more of an ensemble than anything else.
[Source: Me -- I saw it last weekend.]
Chi84
Premium Member
Thanks. I wasn’t even sure. People are twisting themselves in knots over Rachel Zegler. It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I saw it last weekend also, and thought it was pretty good for that 90s campy horror nostalgia they were going for. I was like, dude I remember that and that and that, etc. As someone who lived thru Y2K as a tech person, it was a good time and suggest people check it out.
brideck
Well-Known Member
Ditto, really. Movies like this so often have a load of things that feel out of place/out of time in them, but this one pretty much ticked all of those boxes for me -- the slang, the music, the props (I definitely was gifted a set of devil sticks in the late '90s). The only thing that felt weird to me (though I was never a Mac guy, so I can stand to be corrected) was the showcasing of iMac + Real Player. Really would've thought everything would've just been QuickTime on a Mac.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
It’s tough to say. Maybe the “lots of people keep watching it on D+” isn’t indicative of the level of popularity or support many attribute to it. Could also be the oxygen sucked up by Wicked. Also, by many accounts it’s not that good of a film, so maybe word of mouth and these impressions have stifled repeat viewings or encouraging others to see it.
No it does not. I think they’re ready to be done with that film.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Saw a Mufasa tv spot and maybe I’d missed it in the trailer but some of the animal facial expressions look incredibly goofy (lowercase g). Very curious what kind of reaction it gets.
Lion King: the faces weren't expressive enough.. Too realistic!!
Mufasa: the faces are too expressive.. Too fantastical!!
Mufasa: the faces are too expressive.. Too fantastical!!
Farerb
Well-Known Member
It's a lose lose situation. Characters lacking facial expressions like in the remake make for an emotional uninvolving movie, but putting human facial expressions on photorealistic animals looks ridiculous. If Disney hadn't despised hand drawn animation nowadays, they could have done a hand drawn film with this story and I'm sure it would have been successful.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I just want to say that when we get into these top end measures, the final tally’s aren’t totally reliable as a measure of the franchises popularity. IO2 was an aberration that defies its core franchises strength. No one thinks Inside Out is a bigger franchise than Frozen for example, including Disney. Its movie completely overindexed.
1.5B is a completely unrealistic measure for an animated film that is more an alignment of the stars with some secret sauce going on at international markets.
Moana 2 is doing quite well, but it is being held back a bit by its CinemaScore. Wicked is doing amazing, domestically at least. Both are going to look stronger than they currently are coming off the Christmas holiday run when they have an atypical performance compared to movies released during the rest of the year.
Moana 2 isn’t passing the billion mark solely on the back of Domestic, International performance is what will get it there.
1.5B is a completely unrealistic measure for an animated film that is more an alignment of the stars with some secret sauce going on at international markets.
Moana 2 is doing quite well, but it is being held back a bit by its CinemaScore. Wicked is doing amazing, domestically at least. Both are going to look stronger than they currently are coming off the Christmas holiday run when they have an atypical performance compared to movies released during the rest of the year.
Moana 2 isn’t passing the billion mark solely on the back of Domestic, International performance is what will get it there.