Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

 

[TP2000]

You're using the wrong comparisons though. You're using comps from the live action movies not the equivalent animation movies.

For example why didn't you use the more equivalent Frozen 2 which was released at the same time period just 5 years ago that reached $1.4B? I have a feeling its because it doesn't fit your narrative you're trying to set which is to question Moana 2 reaching $1B+.

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[Disney Irish]

Frozen II got a one-week headstart, since it came out the week before Thanksgiving, but here's a comparison of what Moana 2 would look like if it gets the exact same holds/growth on the calendar that F2 did. F2's drop for this coming weekend (the 2nd after Thanksgiving) was a drop of 46%, so that's what we'd want to compare to.

If it tracks to that general path, Moana 2 would probably end up about $10m-$15m shy of Frozen II domestically in the end. Who knows what the story would be overseas? It's really far to soon to say much of anything with any sort of authority.

View attachment 829726

Yep, exactly my point.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Or you can let people that are good at this sort of thing, and who actually has real interest in the Box Office (and not just a feigning interest) and understands the historical markets and metrics do it and provide analytics.

Basically let others do the homework for you, and you can come comments on it with all that wit and snark you like to use.

Because as was just pointed out by @brideck and @BrianLo mentioned similarly before them, if things hold like Frozen 2 we'll see Moana 2 likely to end relatively the same domestically give or take +/- $10M or so. Which still puts it on a path to potentially hit $1B by the end of its run.

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

It’s all about getting attention. It’s just kind of sad.

I guess everyone has a different opinion of how to deal with this.

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, I can do that!

Here's how Frozen II stacks up against Moana 2 (can you imagine all the meetings they had in Burbank to decide to use Roman numerals instead of numbers?!?) adjusted for inflation. At this point for Frozen II, it was only about $50 Million ahead of Moana 2 domestically. But the overseas numbers, which I mentioned earlier, are much weaker for Moana 2 than they were for Frozen II. The numbers overseas were double that of domestic for Frozen II, while Moana 2 is tied after 2 weeks.
View attachment 829731

It seems to me that Moana 2 will need to see its domestic box office really leg out, if not surge, once American schools get out for Christmas break on December 20th. But again, the good news for Burbank is that Moana 2 had a "cheap" TV budget, so it just broke even this past weekend!

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Moana-2-(2024)/Frozen-II-(2019)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.


We can see today how Frozen 2 hits the post thanksgiving slowdown.

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

 

[BrianLo]

Imagine that, only getting to $1.1B.

Ya. And for @TP2000 I was like wait until next weekend… but really what I meant was wait 15 seconds and the numbers edited in Sunday making Moana 2 back in the running. The movies are a bit out of lock step

I think he knows I’m joking, the timing for the numbers update was funny.

 

[TP2000]

Thanks and just to add some colour since we did ask you to do this, Frozen 2’s second weekend was Thanksgiving.

I know it’s cloying to say keep waiting until weekend 3/4.

I actually do think Moana 2 will only go to 1.1 and change. It sort of depends again on International, which seems a bit stronger and had Russia for the Frozen movies.

That's a good point about Frozen II's calendar timing for Thanksgiving in 2019. Thanksgiving was so darn late this year; I think this was mathematically the latest in November the 4th Thursday could ever be.

I'm thinking Moana 2 will get to around $900-ish Million globally by the time Christmas vacation is over, barring some sudden surge in second-viewings both domestically and overseas. But the overseas box office is more mysterious to me and is a wild card personally; I have no idea what the school calendars look like in Europe for Christmas/New Year's, for example.

I was watching a French cooking guy on YouTube that I subscribe to, and he came out with his "Thanksgiving" recipes a few weeks ago. The guy is a Frenchman cooking in France! And I thought "Why the heck are you doing Thanksgiving?" It's amazing how strong American culture is. I wouldn't be surprised if they started taking a long weekend off in late November, just because.

They're French, after all.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Golden Globes: Nominations List

'Emilia Pérez' leads the film nominees with 10, followed by 'The Brutalist,' 'Conclave,' 'Anora' and 'The Substance.' 'The Bear' leads the TV noms, followed by 'Only Murders in the Building' and 'Shogun.'

www.hollywoodreporter.com

The Walt Disney Company Earns 35 Golden Globe® Award Nominations Across its Film and Television Studios, Streaming Services and Broadcast - The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company proudly announces 35 Golden Globe® Award nominations across its content brands and studios.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

 

[Chi84]

Is it though? We've seen when things go unchecked that they become the de-facto truth for many. Just because you can sniff it out doesn't mean others have the ability to do the same or will even question the validity of what is being said and instead just take it as truth.

I owe you an apology. I’m dealing with blatant misrepresentations in another thread and I completely understand now.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

 

[DKampy]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

I am not sure Sony cares…I believe their main goal is to hold onto spidy’s rights….and this little experiment may have still been profitable…as all 3 venom movies made a decent profit…and the others….the budget was not out of hand compared to most superhero movies….I am sure they will take a break….and start anew just to hold onto the rights

 

[Ghost93]

Kraven was very bad and dumb, but I had a fun time with it. Like Madame Web, it often ventured into unintentional comedy territory.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Moana 2’ To Swamp ‘Kraven The Hunter’ & ‘Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim’ At Weekend Box Office – Preview

Moana 2 and Wicked are expected to holdover quite well with respectively $28M and $20M, -45% a piece, while two incoming fanboy movies fall apart: Sony Marvel's $110M extended Spider-verse Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros/New Line's $30M feature animated movie Lord of the Rings: The War of the...

deadline.com

Kraven is being eviscerated critically. I do wonder at what point Sony cedes more creative control. I think Venom gave them a bit too much confidence in what they were building.

(Not license, they are never ceding the license)

Rumors are that Sony is putting a pause on all non-Spidey related spiderverse films. Which means only Spidey stuff will be with Tom Holland in the MCU and Miles Morales Spidey in animation and maybe live-action, which is fine by me.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, here we go into the third weekend for Moana 2. There's a couple new movies out this weekend, but nothing that would seem to take its crown in the family movie demographic. But this is the last weekend that Moana 2 has that demo all to itself, with The Lion King and Sonic The Hedgehog opening next weekend.

Here's the box office for Thursday, including a couple of Previews for this weekend.

Moana 2 really needs this to be a bonzo weekend to get back in the game if it's going to get to a Billion globally.

As a compare/contrast, here's the chart on Moana 2's legs versus the chart for Wicked. It's a textbook example; Wicked has had very strong legs throughout domestically, although its overseas box office is rather dismal. But it's strong legs the past 3 weeks got it to break even this past week.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday December 12, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday December 12, 2024

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Looking ahead to next weekend and Christmas... is there a buzz for Mufasa: The Lion King? I haven't seen any commercials for it on YouTube. And last night I did a Target run in town and ran smack dab into the middle of a huge Wicked display selling all sorts of Wicked clothing and merchandise for kids and adults, but it was mostly picked over.

There was some Moana 2 stuff in the toy section. But I didn't see anything at Target for Mufasa: The Lion King. Is there buzz for this movie that I'm just not seeing yet? Someone with their finger more on the pulse of American family culture than I could tell us, I'm sure.

The last Lion King live action movie had a budget of $260 Million in 2019. Adjusted for today's ever-rising inflation, that's $320 Million in 2024 dollars. Even if they slash that 2019 budget by over a third and got Mufasa's budget down to $200 Million, that's still a hefty amount. But what if the Mufasa production budget is $250 Million or more? That's a steeper climb at the box office to break even.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Dude, just stop.

Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.

 

[coffeefan]

Superman trailer will be dropping next week and be attached to Mufasa.

I'm looking forward to this trailer to finally see what Gunn has been cooking.

 

[TP2000]

Dude, just stop.

Moana 2 will still hit a billion by either year’s end or 2025’s beginning.

The international box office and that people mostly prefer to watch the movie on weekends more than Wicked is proof of that, especially with the thing being kids as well.

If I'm the "dude" you are referring to there, I'm just not seeing that yet. It would take a dramatic reversal of its trendline to get there a month from now.

Assuming the trend remains the same, at least domestically, it looks like Moana 2 won't break $30 Million this weekend (Friday to Sunday, 12/13-15). Perhaps $28 Million domestically this weekend? And if that trend continues to the following weekend, when two new family tentpoles are released for Christmas vacation, Moana 2 will get less than $20 Million over its 4th weekend (Friday-Sunday, 12/20-22.

It will help that American schools will then be out for at least the next two weeks after December 20th, but I'm not sure that momentum will still be on its side by late December. Assuming there's not some mystery box office surge coming in from overseas that will differ dramatically from the USA, I just don't see how Moana 2 gets to a Billion globally by the time we get to Reverend King's holiday weekend in mid January. It seems to still be heading towards $900 Million.

It's fun to watch it play out though, isn't it? And thanks to its TV Show budget of only $150 Million it's already broken even, which for the purposes of this thread is the important thing for Burbank.

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com