Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

“Universal’s female Jurassic World movie, if you will, the feature take of the Broadway musical Wicked, is expected to pull in any every single woman to the tune of a $125 million-$150 million domestic opening this weekend. Add in an extra $40M-$50M from its overseas launch.

By every single woman we mean in the U.S., where pre-sales are through the roof; we’re hearing that they’re around $30M+. The movie is already holding previews, last night and Wednesday in premium theaters via an Amazon promotion, with regularly scheduled early screenings starting Thursday at 2 p.m. Last night’s preview was strong enough business-wise to land Wicked a 99% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.



Glicked is about to take effect at the box office. If anything, with Moana 2 coming on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, the holiday stretch from this Friday through the Sunday after Black Friday is expected to be the highest-grossing ever at the domestic box office for all films.

There’s a little bit of a Barbie moment going on with Wicked in terms of pre-sales,” one industry insider commented this morning. “They just keep going up and up with tracking numbers through the roof.” Quorum reports that Wicked ranks as the firm’s most highest-tracked title in its post-Covid run with 70% total awareness.“
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The real question is are families going to see it or Moana? With most families only seeing a max of one movie a month, its going to be a choice.

Though I have seen online some rumblings about a "Barbenheimer" type thing potentially happen with Moana and Wicked. What do we call that, "Micked", "Moicked", "Wioana"?

I think there will be some cross over. People will defy expectations if the films are good. Good films bring people out, more than the averages we expect.

If they are picking one over the other, families will be going to Moana, and you’ll see a similar audience to Barbie hitting up Wicked.
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
The real question is are families going to see it or Moana? With most families only seeing a max of one movie a month, its going to be a choice.

Though I have seen online some rumblings about a "Barbenheimer" type thing potentially happen with Moana and Wicked. What do we call that, "Micked", "Moicked", "Wioana"?
I’ve been hearing it more as Wicked paired with Gladiator.
I’m not usually a movie musical guy (although I enjoy live theater musicals) but this movie was great.

Whoever cast it did an amazing job. Every character played their part perfectly.
Haven’t seen it!
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
I think there will be some cross over. People will defy expectations if the films are good. Good films bring people out, more than the averages we expect.

If they are picking one over the other, families will be going to Moana, and you’ll see a similar audience to Barbie hitting up Wicked.
I think good movies can lift all movies….if you had a great time at the theater a person is more likely to go again
 

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
😱 That’s shocking, the music is amazing and Jackman, Efron, and Zendaya are wonderful. The whole cast was great.
Musicals are a tough sell for me. (I know, I know. 😉😆)

Music is my life. The flip side of that is: being forced to sit through a song I don’t know or like is tormenting me.

Songs for the sake of songs in a musical drive me bonkers. If someone is walking down the street and singing about walking down the street - rather than advancing the plot - I’m bored.

Now if we’re talking movies, and I’ve come to love songs on the radio first (Grease, nothing recent, etc.) then I’m more interested because I’ll enjoy the songs regardless of the circumstances.

Even when I finally got into Judy Garland movies beyond the Wizard of Oz (on TCM) I’d often forward through many of the songs just to understand the plot of the movie. I just wanted to know what happened more than I wanted all action to stop while someone sang a song. (Now, if I liked the movie, I rewatch it with the songs lol.)

With Wicked - I don’t think the well-known songs are that great. I first heard “Popular” and “Defying Gravity” at karaoke and it was so boring, even when done well. (This is gay bar karaoke, there’s a fair shot it’s getting done well lol.) I enjoyed them better the one time I saw the live show, in context. The songs are not what will get me to see the film version. My love for the original Wizard of Oz will.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
On thing is for certain, it should be better than Cats.

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In defense of Cats, which is an awful movie, I will give the movie credit for trying something unique with its aesthetic and approach. It didn't work out at all, but I at least felt somewhat of an effort was made. For that reason alone, I think it's superior to the other 2019-cat related abomination — the creatively bankrupt remake of The Lion King.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
In theory the 2.5 hour runtime might seem like a deterrent yet almost all of the highest grossing movies of all time — both Avatars, Titanic, Avengers Endgame — are more than 3 hours long. This isn't just a recent trend. If you adjust for inflation and look at the 10 highest grossing movies of all time, movies like Gone with the Wind, the Sound of Music, the Ten Commandments and Dr. Zhivago are all 3-4 hours.

If Wicked is a good movie, the runtime won't be a problem. When people are having a great time, they don't want a movie to end. It's only when the movie is mediocre that audiences really begin to feel the length.

Two hours for me is a good maximum, and anything longer I feel a movie really needs to earn it.

Avengers works because there's a lot of characters to serve and we're invested in them. Titanic as well. Avatar(s) could have used a little trimming but were acceptable.

On other other hand, there's things like the live action Transformers movies that push 2.5 hours. Why? They're padded with a lot of inane scenes. They're expensive to make so we aren't getting more action. They're dumb movies and I should walk out with at least the feeling that it was a fun ride, instead they cross over into tedium.

They did well though so who knows. Box office wise, there's probably some downside to long run times. It's more of a personal preference I guess.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Two hours for me is a good maximum, and anything longer I feel a movie really needs to earn it.

Avengers works because there's a lot of characters to serve and we're invested in them. Titanic as well. Avatar(s) could have used a little trimming but were acceptable.

On other other hand, there's things like the live action Transformers movies that push 2.5 hours. Why? They're padded with a lot of inane scenes. They're expensive to make so we aren't getting more action. They're dumb movies and I should walk out with at least the feeling that it was a fun ride, instead they cross over into tedium.

They did well though so who knows. Box office wise, there's probably some downside to long run times. It's more of a personal preference I guess.
IMO the length a movie deserves depends on the film…. I have seen 2 hour movies that felt rushed and 90 minute movies that felt like for ever watching it..for example Oppenheimer held my attention the entire time even though it was a 3 hour movie… I did not even take a bathroom break for fear of missing something…. that it was able to do that despite the subject matter… it deserved it's Oscar wins
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Depends on your point of view I guess.

If you're having to leave to use the restroom because the movie is too long or risk having an accident, well then you didn't get your monies worth.
I mean, I generally don't have a problem with quickly leaving to pee if needed.

I generally feel I'm getting more bang for my buck if the movie is longer. I also feel a long runtime is only a problem if the pacing is bad.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I mean, I generally don't have a problem with quickly leaving to pee if needed.

I generally feel I'm getting more bang for my buck if the movie is longer. I also feel a long runtime is only a problem if the pacing is bad.
Which is why I said it depends on your point of view.

If you have to leave and potentially miss something critical because its too long, well you may not feel you've gotten the best bang for your buck. On the other hand if like you you don't care about missing something, well then you may still feel like you've gotten the best bang for your buck. I don't think is a general sentiment that can be said either way on this.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Which is why I said it depends on your point of view.

If you have to leave and potentially miss something critical because its too long, well you may not feel you've gotten the best bang for your buck. On the other hand if like you you don't care about missing something, well then you may still feel like you've gotten the best bang for your buck. I don't think is a general sentiment that can be said either way on this.

THe only time I ever missed something crucial was back when my family saw the Chronicles of Narnia in 2005. I had to use the restroom and ended up missing Aslan's ressurection scene. Fortunately I had read the book beforehand, but still, it was kind of a pivotal moment. Still I don't think that movie should have been any shorter, as it was the perfect length to tell the story it needed to tell.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
THe only time I ever missed something crucial was back when my family saw the Chronicles of Narnia in 2005. I had to use the restroom and ended up missing Aslan's ressurection scene. Fortunately I had read the book beforehand, but still, it was kind of a pivotal moment. Still I don't think that movie should have been any shorter, as it was the perfect length to tell the story it needed to tell.
SPOILERS!!!!!
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
THe only time I ever missed something crucial was back when my family saw the Chronicles of Narnia in 2005. I had to use the restroom and ended up missing Aslan's ressurection scene. Fortunately I had read the book beforehand, but still, it was kind of a pivotal moment. Still I don't think that movie should have been any shorter, as it was the perfect length to tell the story it needed to tell.
I'm happy that works for you, for others it doesn't appear to work for them, everyone is different 🤷‍♂️
 

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