Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Fixed that for you.

Oh, now I'm even more confused. I thought your model was that a film broke even at 2.5 times its production budget?

If that's the case, then Apes 9 breaks even under that formula at $400 Million. (160 Million times 2.5 = 400)

But that would mean that using the 2.5x formula, Apes 9 is at a 99 Million loss, right?

Apes 9: $160 Production Budget times 2.5, Global Box Office $301 = $99 Million Loss

Vs.

Apes 9: Production $160, Marketing $80, 60% Domestic B.O. $78, 40% Overseas B.O. $68 = $94 Million Loss

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, now I'm even more confused. I thought your model was that a film broke even at 2.5 times its production budget?

If that's the case, then Apes 9 breaks even under that formula at $400 Million. (160 Million times 2.5 = 400)

But that would mean that using the 2.5x formula, Apes 9 is at a 99 Million loss, right?

Apes 9: $160 Production Budget times 2.5, Global Box Office $301 = $99 Million Loss

Vs.

Apes 9: Production $160, Marketing $80, 60% Domestic B.O. $78, 40% Overseas B.O. $68 = $94 Million Loss

View attachment 788564

You have to divide it by two at the end (99/2) = 49.5. The discrepancy is it's super simplistic, but your domestic and international splits work well so it lowers the figure a tad as Apes is heavier internationally.

That's why I simplified it for you and just consider half of the marketing (40) dedicated to theatrical and the other half post-theatrical (which you don't count the revenue for either).

You probably missed that I edited the marketing cost as well.

 

[Phroobar]

Honestly I would love to see it. Then we can hear Bob say "See!!! I told you this video game stuff wasn't popular!"

I don't know if you follow the Amico story but it was a scam run by Tommy Tallerico to steal money from investors on a new console. It would totally be right up Bob's alley to invest in this vaporware.

 

[Ghost93]

https://featurefirst.net/industry-a...tiana-rise-as-moana-2-trailer-breaks-records/

This article speculates that the Tiana Disney Plus series is being reworked into a movie. If that's the case, I have no idea how it will perform at the box office. I also wonder if Disney would make Tiana 3D instead of 2D. I'd hate that, but it might be more profitable.

 

[erasure fan1]

I don't know if you follow the Amico story but it was a scam run by Tommy Tallerico to steal money from investors on a new console. It would totally be right up Bob's alley to invest in this vaporware.

Unfortunately I do. I just feel bad for the regular people who came on to the team thinking they were part of something.

 

[DKampy]

https://featurefirst.net/industry-a...tiana-rise-as-moana-2-trailer-breaks-records/

This article speculates that the Tiana Disney Plus series is being reworked into a movie. If that's the case, I have no idea how it will perform at the box office. I also wonder if Disney would make Tiana 3D instead of 2D. I'd hate that, but it might be more profitable.

I would not be surprised… the series was first announced when Disney was going all in on streaming…the data is now in and it shows films do better on streaming if it is released in theaters first no matter the box office outcome… most Studios (Netflix still wants to be a streaming only service for some reason)are moving some of their streaming only content to theatrical

There has been some speculation on how can Moana move from being a Disney Plus series to a theatrical movie… well perhaps it is not as difficult as it seems.. as shown with Star Wars and Marvel… the series feel like movies split up except for maybe WandaVision and The Mandalorian…. Perhaps it is the same with Moana… with some editing it can be put into theaters easy enough

 

[BrianLo]

I think this whole Moana thing is pretty fascinating and ultimately Bob will probably be the victor. If Moana 2 is going to brand damage Moana, it was going to do so anyways as a TV series for the most part.

I’m wondering how the production budget shakes out. Was it made cheaper being outsourced to Vancouver. Will it be more expensive being retooled essentially? Will the startup costs of the Vancouver studio contribute to budget run up? And if it manages to be way cheaper than WDAS and turns into the success it’s probably aligning to be, what does that say to Glendale! Your 99th/100th movie bombed and your 101st outsourced for your biggest D+ franchise. This is the first film ever not made by Walt’s Studio! Which… as a Canadian doesn’t bother me personally and I’m delighted that we have a studio arm here that isn’t relegated to shorts.

Then what the heck is WDAS up to? Clearly they would have previously had something aligned for this release window before Moana 2.

Or how much exactly was produced for this series. Are they sitting on enough that we’re in for Moana 3?

Then shockingly why did Disney close the Pixar Vancouver studio and turn around and make a Disney one half a decade later. Though I think that was probably poorly timed fate. I’m sure they’d love a Pixar Vancouver offshoot making D+ series.

Anyone know whose actually making Tiana?

 

[Ghost93]

I think Moana was much further into production than Tiana, so if they are deciding to make Tiana a movie they might have more of an opportunity to perfect and make sure it's theater worthy.

This would also give Tiana a nice moment to shine as her human self, seeing that she was a frog for 70-75% of the first movie.

 

[TP2000]

Not much going on this weekend at the Box Office, so the Thursday previews barely showed up in the Top 5 yesterday.

But here you go, gang!...

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Sunday September 22, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Sunday September 22, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[WoundedDreamer]

https://featurefirst.net/industry-a...tiana-rise-as-moana-2-trailer-breaks-records/

This article speculates that the Tiana Disney Plus series is being reworked into a movie. If that's the case, I have no idea how it will perform at the box office. I also wonder if Disney would make Tiana 3D instead of 2D. I'd hate that, but it might be more profitable.

I've been wondering if they'd do this. Right now, the streaming business is right on the edge of profitability. Even one series going over budget could send the business plunging into the red. Worst comes to worst, the Tiana film bombs. But by releasing it in theaters, it will protect the growth driver of the company from having to recognize the additional cost of the series on their financial statements. There's a good chance if the Moana film had been recognized in the DTC column, that the DTC business quarterly results might be a loss. Shifting it to theaters allows Disney to shift costs from DTC to other businesses. And whatever money they make in theaters, all the better!

 

[WoundedDreamer]

I'm increasingly wondering about the viability of the Apes franchise. If it hits $350 Million in its global release, it's only ~60% of the inflation adjusted gross of the previous film. I think the viability of future installments will decided on streaming services. If it does do well on streaming services, it could be argued that the future of the franchise could be a Hulu series. This is a mediocre box office performance.

Maybe if they had featured the Manhattan Project like Oppenheimer, Apes could have reached the heights of its predecessor.

 

[DKampy]

I'm increasingly wondering about the viability of the Apes franchise. If it hits $350 Million in its global release, it's only ~60% of the inflation adjusted gross of the previous film.

It will hit 350 million global easily… It is on pace to make over 400 million…Deadline reported it is pacing 7% ahead of the last Apes movie at this point in their respective runs… the last film made 490 globally unadjusted

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm increasingly wondering about the viability of the Apes franchise. If it hits $350 Million in its global release, it's only ~60% of the inflation adjusted gross of the previous film. I think the viability of future installments will decided on streaming services. If it does do well on streaming services, it could be argued that the future of the franchise could be a Hulu series. This is a mediocre box office performance.

Maybe if they had featured the Manhattan Project like Oppenheimer, Apes could have reached the heights of its predecessor.

Except this isn't how studios really decide the future of a franchise. If that was the case then many franchises, some many years with huge inflation swings apart, wouldn't have survived as many sequels don't make a huge pile of "inflation adjusted gross" over their previous entries.

 

[BrianLo]

I'm increasingly wondering about the viability of the Apes franchise. If it hits $350 Million in its global release, it's only ~60% of the inflation adjusted gross of the previous film. I think the viability of future installments will decided on streaming services. If it does do well on streaming services, it could be argued that the future of the franchise could be a Hulu series. This is a mediocre box office performance.

Maybe if they had featured the Manhattan Project like Oppenheimer, Apes could have reached the heights of its predecessor.

If you are going to adjust for inflation you need to also do the same for the budgets. This film is also produced for ~60% of that one. So meeting that parameter it's largely outperforming (your final 350 tally seems to be an under call as pointed out).

That does beg the question if they can continue to adjust for diminishing returns. But if they could make another sequel for 140-150 in a few years, it would be reasonably justified.

They're also mostly just biding time before reaching the inevitable Planet of the Apes remake that this concludes with.

 

[BrianLo]

This summer is frankly dire. I have no personal skin in the game on the Hollywood strikes, but it's really hard not to say they've quickened the death of their industry when it was already on incredibly shaky ground.

I'm basically a terrible predictor of box office these days, so use these as a reliable benchmark of negative correlation. I really thought Fall Guy was a sure thing and was much more dubious on Apes chances.

Inside Out, Despicable Me and Deadpool are basically shouldered with saving the summer. I don't even know if that's a good thing for any of their prospects because a total lack of other compelling product just means people stop frequenting the theatres. Yes they'll do great, but I wonder if they could have done even better with healthy competition.


Films that have reasonable earning potentials but aren't exactly blockbusters?
-Bad Boys (Sony) may have already cashed its nostalgic cheque (though it's a Sony property and they seem to be the only studio scraping by unaffected);
-A quiet place (Paramount) suffers the prequel without any of the talent previous attached issue (though it may be reasonably tightly budgeted);
-Alien: Romulus (Disney) seems appropriately budgeted, but it's got smaller prospects.


Then I guess there is Twisters (Universal, WB International), they've budgeted for a tentpole. But Independence Day: Resurgence as also a former '96 disaster flick failed in a much more receptive theatrical landscape. I think in my heart I want this to fail as it's a lame nostalgia grab.


Borderlands (Lions gate)? Video Game movies are finally having their time. I have no personal affinity or knowledge of this franchise.


Am I missing something or is Warner Brothers basically just taking the summer off?! Horizon, am I underselling a multi-part Kevin Costner Western?

 

[brideck]

Am I missing something or is Warner Brothers basically just taking the summer off?! Horizon, am I underselling a multi-part Kevin Costner Western?

Warner has the Summer of Shyamalan with The Watchers and Trap. Whether that'll inspire audiences in any way remains to be seen.

It'll be interesting to see if Yellowstone's audience shuffles out to the theaters to support Horizon. Stranger things have been a hit before.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

It will hit 350 million global easily… It is on pace to make over 400 million…Deadline reported it is pacing 7% ahead of the last Apes movie at this point in their respective runs… the last film made 490 globally unadjusted

I assume you're talking about domestically? I'd have to see the Deadline article in question. Internationally, the film has been mixed. There are some markets like Mexico and France that have demonstrated resilience. But important markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Brazil, South Korea, and China all look like they're behind their predecessor.

The following are the unadjusted grosses for Apes 8 vs. Apes 9 in selected markets for the 3rd week of its run in millions:

United Kingdom: $20.7 vs. $13.3

France: $17.9 vs. $17.4

Germany: $8 vs. $5.1

Mexico: $14.7 vs. $15.6

Brazil: $11.6 vs. $7.7

Spain: $7.7 vs. $5.6

China: $107 vs. $25.5

South Korea: $11.3 vs. $6.4

Russia/CIS $10.6 vs. $2.8*

I've bolded the only major market that is currently outpacing its predecessor. Lest I be accused of cherry picking, I selected the international markets based on them surpassing the $10 million mark during Apes 8.

There are a few bright spots in smaller international markets. For example:

Colombia: $2.3 vs. $3.7

But for every Colombia, there is a Taiwan:

Taiwan: $4.6 vs. $2.5

While $400 million is possible, I wouldn't treat it as a forgone conclusion. In fact, it's looking less likely right now.

*Included only for completeness.

EDIT: I incorrectly assumed Russia/CIS did not have release. This was my mistake. While Disney stopped releasing films in Russia, the other countries of the CIS still have releases. I've updated the Russia/CIS numbers accordingly. Obviously, that particular comparison is comparing apples to oranges. The other data is useful for comparison though.

If you are going to adjust for inflation you need to also do the same for the budgets. This film is also produced for ~60% of that one. So meeting that parameter it's largely outperforming (your final 350 tally seems to be an under call as pointed out).

That does beg the question if they can continue to adjust for diminishing returns. But if they could make another sequel for 140-150 in a few years, it would be reasonably justified.

They're also mostly just biding time before reaching the inevitable Planet of the Apes remake that this concludes with.

I actually did laud them for controlling costs on another thread. That thread has less activity though, so I shall repeat my praise!

According to Deadline, Kingdom had a production budget of $165 million. This contrasts favorably with War for the Planet of the Apes, which had a production budget of $150 million. How does that work out with inflation? War for the Planet of the Apes had a production budget of ~$192 million in 2024 dollars. This means it cost about ~85% of its predecessor.

So, you're absolutely right that the bar is lower for this film. I'm curious to see where this film ends!

 

[TalkingHead]

Disney’s not even reporting the weekend numbers on Young Woman and the Sea but Deadline is estimating $500k. Probably a good chunk of that was people with subscription plans not paying out of pocket. The box office tracking guru guy had estimated $4m-$9m for the opening weekend, and $11m-$33m for a total gross. Since it goes to streaming in two weeks, it’ll be lucky to do $1m. If Inside Out 2 underperforms there’s going to be a full-blown meltdown in the trades.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Inside Out, Despicable Me and Deadpool are basically shouldered with saving the summer.

If Inside Out 2 underperforms there’s going to be a full-blown meltdown in the trades.

So what happens if 1, 2 or all 3 of these underperform, even by a small margin?

What if Inside Out 2 opens to $75 million instead of $80+ million?

Do people still panic?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I assume you're talking about domestically? I'd have to see the Deadline article in question. Internationally, the film has been mixed. There are some markets like Mexico and France that have demonstrated resilience. But important markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Brazil, South Korea, and China all look like they're behind their predecessor.

The following are the unadjusted grosses for Apes 8 vs. Apes 9 in selected markets for the 3rd week of its run in millions:

United Kingdom: $20.7 vs. $13.3

France: $17.9 vs. $17.4

Germany: $8 vs. $5.1

Mexico: $14.7 vs. $15.6

Brazil: $11.6 vs. $7.7

Spain: $7.7 vs. $5.6

China: $107 vs. $25.5

South Korea: $11.3 vs. $6.4

Russia/CIS $10.6 vs. $2.8*

I've bolded the only major market that is currently outpacing its predecessor. Lest I be accused of cherry picking, I selected the international markets based on them surpassing the $10 million mark during Apes 8.

There are a few bright spots in smaller international markets. For example:

Colombia: $2.3 vs. $3.7

But for every Colombia, there is a Taiwan:

Taiwan: $4.6 vs. $2.5

While $400 million is possible, I wouldn't treat it as a forgone conclusion. In fact, it's looking less likely right now.

*Included only for completeness.

EDIT: I incorrectly assumed Russia/CIS did not have release. This was my mistake. While Disney stopped releasing films in Russia, the other countries of the CIS still have releases. I've updated the Russia/CIS numbers accordingly. Obviously, that particular comparison is comparing apples to oranges. The other data is useful for comparison though.


I actually did laud them for controlling costs on another thread. That thread has less activity though, so I shall repeat my praise!

According to Deadline, Kingdom had a production budget of $165 million. This contrasts favorably with War for the Planet of the Apes, which had a production budget of $150 million. How does that work out with inflation? War for the Planet of the Apes had a production budget of ~$192 million in 2024 dollars. This means it cost about ~85% of its predecessor.

So, you're absolutely right that the bar is lower for this film. I'm curious to see where this film ends!

I’d like to note:

The previous film was a culmination of a sub-trilogy. The two prior films were each released 3 years apart. They led to the “war for the planet…”

The trailer(s) for Kingdom looked great, but didn’t feature familiar characters, and I don’t know that the storyline was obvious. For non-fans, I’m sure that factors in. Certainly a different situation vs. “War.”

Importantly, the prior film was in 2017. Not only is that a full 7 years ago, but pre-Covid, so it feels like a lifetime ago when we’re talking about continuity.