Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

So what happens if 1, 2 or all 3 of these underperform, even by a small margin?

What if Inside Out 2 opens to $75 million instead of $80+ million?

Do people still panic?

It may start to mark the end times of the unrelenting tentpole strategy. Which is not great for the broader industry in terms of job security and money.

I think companies were happy to risk 200-300 million on what seemed liked sure things in the past decade. That may turn into an increasing rarity. As in maybe even the likes of Star Wars and Marvel (outside of an Avengers film or maybe numbered episodic release) start to get capped at 150-175. Other studios start reigning into 100.


*Except Avatar which is for some nearly unknown reason immune to market trends*

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What’s inside out tracking at?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

*Except Avatar which is for some nearly unknown reason immune to market trends*

Probably because the market isn't oversaturated with Avatar content.

We've had 2 movies in 15 years. That's it. No other shows, or tie in products outside Animal Kingdom and a video game (?).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney’s not even reporting the weekend numbers on Young Woman and the Sea but Deadline is estimating $500k. Probably a good chunk of that was people with subscription plans not paying out of pocket. The box office tracking guru guy had estimated $4m-$9m for the opening weekend, and $11m-$33m for a total gross. Since it goes to streaming in two weeks, it’ll be lucky to do $1m. If Inside Out 2 underperforms there’s going to be a full-blown meltdown in the trades.

Who is hiring her at this point?

She’s Jake Lloyd

 

[DKampy]

I assume you're talking about domestically? I'd have to see the Deadline article in question. Internationally, the film has been mixed. There are some markets like Mexico and France that have demonstrated resilience. But important markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Brazil, South Korea, and China all look like they're behind their predecessor.

The following are the unadjusted grosses for Apes 8 vs. Apes 9 in selected markets for the 3rd week of its run in millions:

United Kingdom: $20.7 vs. $13.3

France: $17.9 vs. $17.4

Germany: $8 vs. $5.1

Mexico: $14.7 vs. $15.6

Brazil: $11.6 vs. $7.7

Spain: $7.7 vs. $5.6

China: $107 vs. $25.5

South Korea: $11.3 vs. $6.4

Russia/CIS $10.6 vs. $2.8*

I've bolded the only major market that is currently outpacing its predecessor. Lest I be accused of cherry picking, I selected the international markets based on them surpassing the $10 million mark during Apes 8.

There are a few bright spots in smaller international markets. For example:

Colombia: $2.3 vs. $3.7

But for every Colombia, there is a Taiwan:

Taiwan: $4.6 vs. $2.5

While $400 million is possible, I wouldn't treat it as a forgone conclusion. In fact, it's looking less likely right now.

*Included only for completeness.

EDIT: I incorrectly assumed Russia/CIS did not have release. This was my mistake. While Disney stopped releasing films in Russia, the other countries of the CIS still have releases. I've updated the Russia/CIS numbers accordingly. Obviously, that particular comparison is comparing apples to oranges. The other data is useful for comparison though.

Do you realize the international numbers have not come in for this week yet…. They usually don’t add into things until Sunday night or Monday…Also I had figured in China when saying Apes is on pace for over 400 instead of 500… as the China Market has changed…they are not as receptive to USA films since the pandemic

 

[BrianLo]

What’s inside out tracking at?

Deadline had it at 80-85. Box Office Pro long term tracking is giving a 70-100 million range.

The original opened to 90 million domestically. Though both films share the same budget final tally (which helps make inflation a bit moot) - so I think given the current box office state, Disney would be quite pleased if it hits similarly.

70 wouldn't be a disaster by any stretch, though probably disappointing for them given the current tracking. It would be pretty surprising if it underperformed that for the industry and alarm bells would go off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline had it at 80-85. Box Office Pro long term tracking is giving a 70-100 million range.

The original opened to 90 million domestically. Though both films share the same budget final tally (which helps make inflation a bit moot) - so I think given the current box office state, Disney would be quite pleased if it hits similarly.

70 wouldn't be a disaster by any stretch, though probably disappointing for them given the current tracking. It would be pretty surprising if it underperformed that for the industry and alarm bells would go off.

I don’t think it will fail…but I’m guessing an underwhelming overall performance

 

[BrianLo]

PS - Young Women and the Sea is a streaming movie that received a token limited release for awards consideration since it was otherwise well received and reviewed. It's not a theatrical film.

 

[TalkingHead]

So what happens if 1, 2 or all 3 of these underperform, even by a small margin?

What if Inside Out 2 opens to $75 million instead of $80+ million?

Do people still panic?

I’d be shocked if any of them underperform in opening weekends, although I guess it’s not a stretch to think DM4 does less business than the last Gru movie. I think a lot of the industry narrative will hinge on things like Twisters and the Quiet Place prequel. If those perform like Furiosa, then yikes.

 

[TalkingHead]

PS - Young Women and the Sea is a streaming movie that received a token limited release for awards consideration since it was otherwise well received and reviewed. It's not a theatrical film.

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Daisy Ridley Movie ‘Young Woman And The Sea’ Officially Swimming From Disney+ To May Theatrical Release – Update

Daisy Ridley movie 'Young Woman and the Sea' sets May 31 theatrical release after being conceived for Disney+

deadline.com

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

 

[brideck]

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

It wasn't really marketed at all, was it? I haven't seen Apes (where it was perhaps most likely to appear), but I never even saw a trailer for this other than online. It's only barely cracked the top 1000 on IMDb's StarMeter, which is a decent signal of ultra-low audience awareness.

It's essentially identical to how they handled 1Q's ill-fated Pixar re-releases.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Do you realize the international numbers have not come in for this week yet…. They usually don’t add into things until Sunday night or Monday…Also I had figured in China when saying Apes is on pace for over 400 instead of 500… as the China Market has changed…they are not as receptive to USA films since the pandemic

Absolutely, that's why I compared the 3rd week of the run of each film. You're correct that things could shift in the 4th week. I'll be monitoring the data for a major acceleration. If that does happen, I'll be the first to acknowledge it. But across the board from China, to the United Kingdom, to Brazil, the last information we had demonstrated weakness in core international markets.

To the credit of Apes 9, the domestic gross for its 4th weekend was robust. That could help overcome some of the weakness internationally. Apes 9 could have another ~$25 million in the domestic tank. That's good stuff!

 

[BrianLo]

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Daisy Ridley Movie ‘Young Woman And The Sea’ Officially Swimming From Disney+ To May Theatrical Release – Update

Daisy Ridley movie 'Young Woman and the Sea' sets May 31 theatrical release after being conceived for Disney+

deadline.com

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

So what's the screen count and why is it a 2 week limited run?

It's because it was a streaming movie that got good reviews and they could qualify it for awards with a limited first run release. It clearly wasn't to make a ton of money, it wasn't marketed and you don't throw something on streaming 2 weeks later if you want any theatrical prospect. We don't even have a clear budget because it's a streaming movie bought out by the service.

Netflix has engaged in the same fodder. Its benchmark for success was first reviews, then awards consideration/nominations for anything next year and finally if anyone bothers to watch it on D+.

Presenting the dollar figure out of context is disingenuous, but perhaps that's the point. The deadline "bozo" is also the only one reporting on it.


Edit-I actually don't even know the answer to my rhetorical question, but I have yet to find a show time in any major Canadian city, so I'm going with it was a very limited release. It may also have an excellent per theatre average for all I know, but it doesn't really matter. It's a streaming film.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office estimate is out for this weekend gang, to be refined more accurately tomorrow. Another slow weekend at the domestic box office. As of 1:50pm Burbank time, Young Woman And The Sea hasn't shown up on the chart at all via The Numbers. That site will track bizarre little indy films playing in only 2 or 3 college student unions, so I'm sure it will show up in tomorrow's more accurate update. But for now, nothing. Here's the Top 10 this weekend....

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

Absolutely, that's why I compared the 3rd week of the run of each film. You're correct that things could shift in the 4th week. I'll be monitoring the data for a major acceleration. If that does happen, I'll be the first to acknowledge it. But across the board from China, to the United Kingdom, to Brazil, the last information we had demonstrated weakness in core international markets.

To the credit of Apes 9, the domestic gross for its 4th weekend was robust. That could help overcome some of the weakness internationally. Apes 9 could have another ~$25 million in the domestic tank. That's good stuff!

Here's the updated international take coming out of the weekend.

‘The Garfield Movie’ Purrs Past $150M WW; ‘Furiosa’ Battles To $114M – International Box Office

All you need to know about global box office on The Garfield Movie, Furiosa, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, IF and more

deadline.com

20th Century/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes continues to show playability with just a 28% drop from last weekend overseas, adding $15.2M in 52 material markets for a $197.1M international cume. Notable holds include Germany (+32%), Brazil (+3%), Australia (-7%), France (-13%), Mexico (-23%), UK (-31%), China (-40%), Japan (-50%) and Spain (-50%).

The global total is now $337.1M and the latest installment is the best of the franchise so far in India, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Iraq, Lebanon, Lithuania, Nigeria and Turkey.

 

[mary2013]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

 

[DKampy]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

wow…. I heard it was an Awards play after the strong test screenings, but I originally thought it was going wider since it was playing at my local theater… they usually wait till movies expand in at least 500 theaters before we receive films… hopefully this is a sign of expanding the reach of the type of films we get

In other news IFC films is an interesting case with putting Late Night With Devil and A Violent Nature into theaters(both have done decently for their limited run)for a couple of weeks to get the word out before ending up on shudder.. I am wondering if we are going to see more of this with other streaming services to help create buzz

 

[TP2000]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

Interesting. And it appears to be true Disney is not releasing box office data for it, as it doesn't show up on any of the usual box office reporting websites today.

$500,000 divided by 250 theaters comes in at a total of $2,000 per theater for the entire weekend of showings.

It's probably best to chalk this up as one of those studio write-offs they do occasionally, and just forget about it as far as this thread goes on box office reporting.

 

[Disney Irish]

Interesting. And it appears to be true Disney is not releasing box office data for it, as it doesn't show up on any of the usual box office reporting websites today.

$500,000 divided by 250 theaters comes in at a total of $2,000 per theater for the entire weekend of showings.

It's probably best to chalk this up as one of those studio write-offs they do occasionally, and just forget about it as far as this thread goes on box office reporting.

Or the real scenario where the cost of production was picked up by DTC as it was a D+ Original movie that got a theatrical release for awards contention. Netflix does the exact same thing. There is NO write-off here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

FYI, whoever wrote that HWR article clearly didn't do their due diligence on this one. The story is about Gertrude "Trudy" Ederle, a woman born in New York not England and was a US Gold medal winner in swimming during the 1924 Summer Olympics, and was the first woman to swim across the English Channel. So just because Ridley played her doesn't mean the character was English.