Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

What’s inside out tracking at?

Deadline had it at 80-85. Box Office Pro long term tracking is giving a 70-100 million range.

The original opened to 90 million domestically. Though both films share the same budget final tally (which helps make inflation a bit moot) - so I think given the current box office state, Disney would be quite pleased if it hits similarly.

70 wouldn't be a disaster by any stretch, though probably disappointing for them given the current tracking. It would be pretty surprising if it underperformed that for the industry and alarm bells would go off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline had it at 80-85. Box Office Pro long term tracking is giving a 70-100 million range.

The original opened to 90 million domestically. Though both films share the same budget final tally (which helps make inflation a bit moot) - so I think given the current box office state, Disney would be quite pleased if it hits similarly.

70 wouldn't be a disaster by any stretch, though probably disappointing for them given the current tracking. It would be pretty surprising if it underperformed that for the industry and alarm bells would go off.

I don’t think it will fail…but I’m guessing an underwhelming overall performance

 

[BrianLo]

PS - Young Women and the Sea is a streaming movie that received a token limited release for awards consideration since it was otherwise well received and reviewed. It's not a theatrical film.

 

[TalkingHead]

So what happens if 1, 2 or all 3 of these underperform, even by a small margin?

What if Inside Out 2 opens to $75 million instead of $80+ million?

Do people still panic?

I’d be shocked if any of them underperform in opening weekends, although I guess it’s not a stretch to think DM4 does less business than the last Gru movie. I think a lot of the industry narrative will hinge on things like Twisters and the Quiet Place prequel. If those perform like Furiosa, then yikes.

 

[TalkingHead]

PS - Young Women and the Sea is a streaming movie that received a token limited release for awards consideration since it was otherwise well received and reviewed. It's not a theatrical film.

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Daisy Ridley Movie ‘Young Woman And The Sea’ Officially Swimming From Disney+ To May Theatrical Release – Update

Daisy Ridley movie 'Young Woman and the Sea' sets May 31 theatrical release after being conceived for Disney+

deadline.com

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

 

[brideck]

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

It wasn't really marketed at all, was it? I haven't seen Apes (where it was perhaps most likely to appear), but I never even saw a trailer for this other than online. It's only barely cracked the top 1000 on IMDb's StarMeter, which is a decent signal of ultra-low audience awareness.

It's essentially identical to how they handled 1Q's ill-fated Pixar re-releases.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

Do you realize the international numbers have not come in for this week yet…. They usually don’t add into things until Sunday night or Monday…Also I had figured in China when saying Apes is on pace for over 400 instead of 500… as the China Market has changed…they are not as receptive to USA films since the pandemic

Absolutely, that's why I compared the 3rd week of the run of each film. You're correct that things could shift in the 4th week. I'll be monitoring the data for a major acceleration. If that does happen, I'll be the first to acknowledge it. But across the board from China, to the United Kingdom, to Brazil, the last information we had demonstrated weakness in core international markets.

To the credit of Apes 9, the domestic gross for its 4th weekend was robust. That could help overcome some of the weakness internationally. Apes 9 could have another ~$25 million in the domestic tank. That's good stuff!

 

[BrianLo]

Awards consideration, that old chestnut.

Daisy Ridley Movie ‘Young Woman And The Sea’ Officially Swimming From Disney+ To May Theatrical Release – Update

Daisy Ridley movie 'Young Woman and the Sea' sets May 31 theatrical release after being conceived for Disney+

deadline.com

Choice quote from the Deadline bozo when this was announced as a theatrical release: “Anyway, it’s another win for streaming movies heading to the big screen, and studios recognizing the potential for them there first.” Repeat: it made $500,000 this weekend. Some potential.

So what's the screen count and why is it a 2 week limited run?

It's because it was a streaming movie that got good reviews and they could qualify it for awards with a limited first run release. It clearly wasn't to make a ton of money, it wasn't marketed and you don't throw something on streaming 2 weeks later if you want any theatrical prospect. We don't even have a clear budget because it's a streaming movie bought out by the service.

Netflix has engaged in the same fodder. Its benchmark for success was first reviews, then awards consideration/nominations for anything next year and finally if anyone bothers to watch it on D+.

Presenting the dollar figure out of context is disingenuous, but perhaps that's the point. The deadline "bozo" is also the only one reporting on it.


Edit-I actually don't even know the answer to my rhetorical question, but I have yet to find a show time in any major Canadian city, so I'm going with it was a very limited release. It may also have an excellent per theatre average for all I know, but it doesn't really matter. It's a streaming film.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office estimate is out for this weekend gang, to be refined more accurately tomorrow. Another slow weekend at the domestic box office. As of 1:50pm Burbank time, Young Woman And The Sea hasn't shown up on the chart at all via The Numbers. That site will track bizarre little indy films playing in only 2 or 3 college student unions, so I'm sure it will show up in tomorrow's more accurate update. But for now, nothing. Here's the Top 10 this weekend....

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

Absolutely, that's why I compared the 3rd week of the run of each film. You're correct that things could shift in the 4th week. I'll be monitoring the data for a major acceleration. If that does happen, I'll be the first to acknowledge it. But across the board from China, to the United Kingdom, to Brazil, the last information we had demonstrated weakness in core international markets.

To the credit of Apes 9, the domestic gross for its 4th weekend was robust. That could help overcome some of the weakness internationally. Apes 9 could have another ~$25 million in the domestic tank. That's good stuff!

Here's the updated international take coming out of the weekend.

‘The Garfield Movie’ Purrs Past $150M WW; ‘Furiosa’ Battles To $114M – International Box Office

All you need to know about global box office on The Garfield Movie, Furiosa, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, IF and more

deadline.com

20th Century/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes continues to show playability with just a 28% drop from last weekend overseas, adding $15.2M in 52 material markets for a $197.1M international cume. Notable holds include Germany (+32%), Brazil (+3%), Australia (-7%), France (-13%), Mexico (-23%), UK (-31%), China (-40%), Japan (-50%) and Spain (-50%).

The global total is now $337.1M and the latest installment is the best of the franchise so far in India, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Iraq, Lebanon, Lithuania, Nigeria and Turkey.

 

[mary2013]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

 

[DKampy]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

wow…. I heard it was an Awards play after the strong test screenings, but I originally thought it was going wider since it was playing at my local theater… they usually wait till movies expand in at least 500 theaters before we receive films… hopefully this is a sign of expanding the reach of the type of films we get

In other news IFC films is an interesting case with putting Late Night With Devil and A Violent Nature into theaters(both have done decently for their limited run)for a couple of weeks to get the word out before ending up on shudder.. I am wondering if we are going to see more of this with other streaming services to help create buzz

 

[TP2000]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

Interesting. And it appears to be true Disney is not releasing box office data for it, as it doesn't show up on any of the usual box office reporting websites today.

$500,000 divided by 250 theaters comes in at a total of $2,000 per theater for the entire weekend of showings.

It's probably best to chalk this up as one of those studio write-offs they do occasionally, and just forget about it as far as this thread goes on box office reporting.

 

[Disney Irish]

Interesting. And it appears to be true Disney is not releasing box office data for it, as it doesn't show up on any of the usual box office reporting websites today.

$500,000 divided by 250 theaters comes in at a total of $2,000 per theater for the entire weekend of showings.

It's probably best to chalk this up as one of those studio write-offs they do occasionally, and just forget about it as far as this thread goes on box office reporting.

Or the real scenario where the cost of production was picked up by DTC as it was a D+ Original movie that got a theatrical release for awards contention. Netflix does the exact same thing. There is NO write-off here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Hollywood Reporter

At the specialty box office, Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney released the biographical drama Young Woman and the Sea, starring Daisy Ridley as the real-life young English woman who was famous for swimming the English Channel. The film, originally intended for Disney+, is playing in roughly 250 theaters and is expected to take in $500,000 or thereabouts. The studio isn’t reporting numbers since the theatrical component was intended to qualify the film for awards.

Edit: I don't know how to get that box to work with the link.

FYI, whoever wrote that HWR article clearly didn't do their due diligence on this one. The story is about Gertrude "Trudy" Ederle, a woman born in New York not England and was a US Gold medal winner in swimming during the 1924 Summer Olympics, and was the first woman to swim across the English Channel. So just because Ridley played her doesn't mean the character was English.

 

[DKampy]

Interesting. And it appears to be true Disney is not releasing box office data for it, as it doesn't show up on any of the usual box office reporting websites today.

$500,000 divided by 250 theaters comes in at a total of $2,000 per theater for the entire weekend of showings.

It's probably best to chalk this up as one of those studio write-offs they do occasionally, and just forget about it as far as this thread goes on box office reporting.

That is not what’s happening here… Young Woman and the Sea is a streaming movie for all intents and purpose… but after receiving very high scores at test screenings it was decided to put in theaters a couple of weeks before it’s Disney Plus debut for awards consideration…

 

[TP2000]

That is not what’s happening here… Young Woman and the Sea is a streaming movie for all intents and purpose… but after receiving very high scores at test screenings it was decided to put in theaters a couple of weeks before it’s Disney Plus debut for awards consideration…

Ah, okay. Still, for the purposes of this thread for tracking box office, it's probably best to ignore it for now and not try to hold it to any sort of previous theatrical standard, much less track its box office receipts.

 

[Dranth]

Am I missing something or is Warner Brothers basically just taking the summer off?!

Isn't Furiosa Warner?

 

[BrianLo]

Isn't Furiosa Warner?

I'm being obstinate and refusing to call May summer.

But ya all five of them had an "attempted" tentpole in that May window. Disney with Apes, Warner with Furiosa, Universal with Fall Guy, Sony with Garfield and Paramount with IF.


I think I was just ignoring the Shamylan fare, it wasn't jumping out to me and I thought it was small budget horror when I looked at their release schedule. I think the fact they are distributing Twisters Internationally is also making their summer quite odd. Usually I'd expect something more bombastic from WB in the heart of the summer. I actually think it's the absence of a DC film from June-August is what I'm feeling.

 

[TP2000]

I would not be surprised… the series was first announced when Disney was going all in on streaming…the data is now in and it shows films do better on streaming if it is released in theaters first no matter the box office outcome…

The data is now coming in fast and furious on Tiana's new E Ticket too, and that's not good.

I wonder how the iffy at best reaction to Tiana's Bayou Adventure and its paper thin plot of nothing but happiness and conflict-free living will impact the Tiana movie?