Next weekend's going to be really interesting. While a lot of people are still/will be busy with seasonal activities, Christmas does generally see an uptick in moviegoing. But while everyone's acting like Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is a big deal, I think WB gave up on that one a while back. There hasn't been much promotion for it at all from my perspective (we didn't even get the theatrical trailer until September! Meanwhile Dune Part Two just released a third trailer for next spring), and no wonder, they've got superhero burnout just as bad as Disney does if not worse.
No, WB's been leaning in on Wonka and to a lesser extent The Color Purple. People who like Wonka seem to really like it (I saw it on Thursday and was happy to eat my words over my initial doubts). And the positioning means that if the word-of-mouth is healthy, it can pay off ala Sing 2 or Puss in Boots - The Last Wish on Christmas weekend, and play into the new year. But with two big new titles, how big of a drop will it have in weekend 2?
Migration seems a bit up in the air so to speak. I guess the international box office has been decent so far but not a breakout, and as with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom the review embargo hasn't been lifted yet. If this is what families have been waiting for (Universal's marketed it fairly aggressively), an upset over Aquaman is possible.
As for Wish, Christmas weekend is its last hope for a decent take. Disney intended it to have an open-ended run, and I think it's too late now to announce a surprise Christmas Day drop on Disney+. (EDIT: Or maybe not - Trolls Band Together gets a digital release Tuesday, although that's not the same as streaming.) But there's just too much coming in to keep it around in theaters much longer when Migration and Wonka, even The Boy and the Heron are fresher and more specialty titles begin to trickle in with awards season. So I would not be surprised if we see a big ad push for Wish this week as a last-ditch measure on Disney's part.
deadline.com
