Clearly showing your analysis skills at work…as stated by others Poor Things is expected to nab nominations throughout awards season and is in very limited theaters for nowI would consider any movie that fails to break even a disappointment. I hadn't heard of Poor Things until about 20 minutes ago when I saw the weekend box office stats, but it will need to do at least $75 Million at the global box office to break even.
It will be tracked for Searchlight in our data here, not to worry.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Nice!!
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Wait, an "expert" on all things movies didn't know about Poor Things?? A movie that will most certainly be nominated for Best Picture, Best Actress, and a slew of other categories. Oh brother!!
Who are you quoting with "expert"????
I rarely go to the movies, so I could hardly be considered an expert. The last movie I saw in a theater was Barbie, last July.
I mean, I am an expert at a few things, but none of those things are movies.
When did I ever claim I was an "expert"? And an expert at something as mundane and pedestrian as movies? Yikes.
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
I'd never heard of it until earlier this afternoon. I'm sure it's a fine film, with a production budget of $35 Million.
That said, I'm not sure what "analysis skills" you are referring to? Several times per week in the early afternoon, after a light lunch, I log on to The Numbers site and look at the current box office data. Then report it here, and then we discuss it. On a discussion board. A discussion board about Disney stuff. Including movies.
That's not so much "analysis skills", as it is the skill to cut and paste. And have active Internet service. After a light lunch.
I look forward to tracking the box office performance of Poor Things from Searchlight in the next few weeks!
TP2000
Well-Known Member
How often do you toggle that off and on like that? Is there a timetable, or an App, that tells you when to do that?
I've been here for 20 years and I don't bother with that. I might miss something, and honestly, a diversity of opinion and thought is fun and keeps the brain alive. So how do you manage that function of toggling back and forth like that?
Where you are getting the push back is you declared Poor Things a bomb already…like you are the authority on what films will doI'd never heard of it until earlier this afternoon. I'm sure it's a fine film, with a production budget of $35 Million.
That said, I'm not sure what "analysis skills" you are referring to? Several times per week in the early afternoon, after a light lunch, I log on to The Numbers site and look at the current box office data. Then report it here, and then we discuss it. On a discussion board. A discussion board about Disney stuff. Including movies.
That's not so much "analysis skills", as it is the skill to cut and paste. And have active Internet service. After a light lunch.
I look forward to tracking the box office performance of Poor Things from Searchlight in the next few weeks!
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Fair enough. Let's see what it will do. Then we can declare it a bomb. Or not.
But only after I've had a light lunch, and then go on the World Wide Web.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Who are you quoting with "expert"????
I rarely go to the movies, so I could hardly be considered an expert. The last movie I saw in a theater was Barbie, last July.
I mean, I am an expert at a few things, but none of those things are movies.
When did I ever claim I was an "expert"? And an expert at something as mundane and pedestrian as movies? Yikes.
All your posts in these threads imply otherwise and declaring a movie a bomb before it is even in wide release doesn’t help your argument.
Just pointing out something to be even keel.
His track record and sense for it are pretty good. Maybe no one is an expert on predicting the future, but some predictions are safe bets, even if still bets.
It does not make one an expert on movies if they can see the trends and the user never claimed to be.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
It's not that hard to predict a bomb based on the trailer. The trailer gives a good indication of the marketing direction they are going with the movie. For the Marvels they relied on a Freaky Friday body switch but never got into the bad guy and main plot of the movie. Wish's trailers showed beautiful scenery but then ended with a unfunny talking goat. There was no plot given. Instead they relied on "Its a Disney movie. Go see it." No one did and not even the cult of Disney.
I was hoping Wish would have done better but I knew it was going to bomb. I just never thought it would have imploded on a holiday weekend. I thought it was going to come in at least 80% of break even.
I was hoping Wish would have done better but I knew it was going to bomb. I just never thought it would have imploded on a holiday weekend. I thought it was going to come in at least 80% of break even.
I'd argue that there was a plot given in the full-length Wish trailers but it was poorly presented. What most viewers took from that is "So the girl is going to overthrow the king of her beautiful, peaceful community just because he won't grant every wish, she got mad and somehow summoned a star, and only then is he upset enough to do wrong?" A lot of people just didn't see why Asha was supposed to be the heroine unless the story was about her learning - well, "Be careful what you wish for."
Also, the final full-length American trailer especially drawing so heavily upon older Disney movies just made the whole enterprise feel more like commercials for Disney the Brand rather than an individual movie, like last year's "From Our Family to Yours" streaming shorts, which were really glorified commercials, on Disney+.
Also, the final full-length American trailer especially drawing so heavily upon older Disney movies just made the whole enterprise feel more like commercials for Disney the Brand rather than an individual movie, like last year's "From Our Family to Yours" streaming shorts, which were really glorified commercials, on Disney+.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Agreed. I thought Wish was going to do at least $400 Million globally. At $400 Million it still wouldn't have broke even, but I thought there was enough fumes left in Disney's pop culture tank that people would go see it just because its "Disney!".
That didn't happen. Wish won't even get to $200 Million globally, and it will lose hundreds of millions for Disney. That tells me that the global damage to Disney's brand is deeper and wider than some of us here may have thought.
To borrow a line from another poster here... This is the worst Disney 100th Anniversary Ever!
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I think Disney internally abandoned this one like they did with Strange World. One group internally must have really p!ssed off another one during development. Why would Disney release a 100th anniversary tentpole in such shotty shape otherwise? I don't think they ran out of time since we knew the movie was complete before the strike.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Cutting and pasting widely available financial data is not me being an "expert", it's me cutting and pasting.
If you don't like the box office data, that's fine. I think we're all concerned that Disney can't release a movie that breaks even any longer. But you can't blame me for being an "expert" at that data. It is simply the real box office data.
Thank you.
What has me here chuckling this afternoon (after a light lunch) is the accusation that I am a self-professed "movie expert" with actual "analysis skills". When in reality I'm just a lifelong Disney theme park fan who is very concerned that the entire Company is coming off the rails and is inflicting long term damage to its brand and place in American culture.
And I base my "analysis" off of dinner party chatter from friends, Halloween costumes that show up on my front porch every year, a quick visual scan of the toy aisle at my local Target, and brief Google searches.
That's not really the Scientific Method, is it?
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Ok good, at least we both agree then that you are most definitely not an expert in movies.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I completely agree with this. It's not an exact science but it can be an indicator for sure.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Ok good, at least we both agree then that you are most definitely not an expert in movies.
Oh, God no. That was a word you used, and that I had to correct for you because it was so inaccurate.
I don't even go to the movies much. Maybe once per year, if even that.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Box office is out for Monday the 18th, the first day of Christmas school vacation for many children coast to coast.
Wish had a slight bump from last week due to that, up 14% from a week ago Monday. Will Wish be able to get to $60 Million domestically by the end of Christmas vacation in early January? Something to wish for.
Wish had a slight bump from last week due to that, up 14% from a week ago Monday. Will Wish be able to get to $60 Million domestically by the end of Christmas vacation in early January? Something to wish for.
Well school ain't out yet in my region but wow, look at that number for Wonka. Wonder how Tuesday will look given it's traditionally discount day at a lot of theater chains.
Where I live, the local five-screen theater has decided to make room for Migration and Aquaman 2 come Friday by getting rid of every movie that isn't Wonka. Other chains like AMC will be bringing in a lot of mainstream-appealing awards contenders then and on Monday, so a lot of titles that have been around a month or more are on the way out or will only get a few showings per day by sharing screens with others, if you're wondering why some movies just seem to be sticking around like a bad cold. (At one AMC in my region, Wish only gets one matinee a day starting Friday, but The Boy and the Heron can still have a screen to itself!)
Where I live, the local five-screen theater has decided to make room for Migration and Aquaman 2 come Friday by getting rid of every movie that isn't Wonka. Other chains like AMC will be bringing in a lot of mainstream-appealing awards contenders then and on Monday, so a lot of titles that have been around a month or more are on the way out or will only get a few showings per day by sharing screens with others, if you're wondering why some movies just seem to be sticking around like a bad cold. (At one AMC in my region, Wish only gets one matinee a day starting Friday, but The Boy and the Heron can still have a screen to itself!)
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
They used to say for Hollywood Pictures - If it Sphinx, it Stinks.
Maybe we can use, if there is a Castle, it's not worth the Hassle.