Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Miss Rori]

Also no one said animation is dire right now. What I said is that there are animation movies that aren't just automatically killing it at the box office. The common statement in this thread is that families are just picking everything else and going to it instead of Disney movies, and I'm saying that the box office doesn't actually show that. That in fact they are skipping other movies too just like they are Disney movies.

Right. Similarly, Marvel movies have been petering out this year -- GOTG Vol. 3 and Across the Spider-Verse being exceptions, and significant ones at that -- but WB hasn't had a genuine hit with a DC movie since The Batman in early 2022, and even that came after a run of disappointments like Wonder Woman 1984 and The Suicide Squad. The term is "superhero fatigue" for a reason. All this is cold comfort to Disney of course, which having put too few eggs into too few baskets isn't seeing a lot of chicks hatching.

 

[celluloid]

I haven't watched Trolls 3 so cannot attest to its quality, but if you say it was not good I'll believe you. I did however see Wish and can say its quality is a whole lot better than its box office indicates.

Also no one said animation is dire right now. What I said is that there are animation movies that aren't just automatically killing it at the box office. The common statement in this thread is that families are just picking everything else and going to it instead of Disney movies, and I'm saying that the box office doesn't actually show that. That in fact they are skipping other movies too just like they are Disney movies.

Good that you liked it but besides just box office, critics and audiences like Wish even less than Trolls 3.
Have animation movies always killed it at the box office? It is actually a very strong animation year considering the low number of releases. I think people here just don't like that Disney animation is not in that mix.

 

[Miss Rori]

Another thing about Wonka compared to Wish -- WB definitely has some commercial tie-ins for the film, like a special menu at IHOP restaurants, to drum up a little more return on the investment. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of merchandise for it the way Wish has tons of plushies and dolls and whatnot on the shelves. Which means not a lot to worry about as far as that moving...

 

[Disney Irish]

I agree with you there. If I were them, that's what I would do - at least it might discourage people from going out to see Migration or Wonka. Who knows, maybe that's what they'll go ahead with. It's not just that there isn't any cash left on the table in the U.S. at least, this movie is going to be a total nonstarter in awards season.

The issue here is that there isn't a whole lot of new movies coming out between now and February. Its part of the reason why Disney is releasing some of the pandemic movies to theaters in January.

 

[Disney Irish]

Good that you liked it but besides just box office, critics and audiences like Wish even less than Trolls 3.
Have animation movies always killed it at the box office? It is actually a very strong animation year considering the low number of releases. I think people here just don't like that Disney animation is not in that mix.

And that may be, but it still doesn't change the fact that other studios are having issues with animation too, not just Disney. So its not automatic that families are just going to everything else but Disney, just not a true statement despite many making that claim.

 

[celluloid]

And that may be, but it still doesn't change the fact that other studios are having issues with animation too, not just Disney. So its not automatic that families are just going to everything else but Disney, just not a true statement despite many making that claim

Yep. The rise of revenue is rising slowly back for all studios. Except for one who has every major release not having a theatrical box office revenue that at least matches the budget.
Other animation studios had better success this year that matches the increase of theatrical attendance growth.

It would have been nice if that billion and a half of theater attendance increase could have not been a year where Disney lost the most.

 

[Disney Irish]

Right. Similarly, Marvel movies have been petering out this year -- GOTG Vol. 3 and Across the Spider-Verse being exceptions, and significant ones at that -- but WB hasn't had a genuine hit with a DC movie since The Batman in early 2022, and even that came after a run of disappointments like Wonder Woman 1984 and The Suicide Squad. The term is "superhero fatigue" for a reason. All this is cold comfort to Disney of course, which having put too few eggs into too few baskets isn't seeing a lot of chicks hatching.

I'm a huge MCU fan, not saying anything that most here don't know. But I think the issue is not "superhero fatigue", but rather not enough "good" superhero content that connect with each other. While I've enjoyed everything that MCU has put out I do know its not for everyone, and so its failed to bring in the general audience.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yep. The rise of revenue is rising slowly back for all studios. Except for one who has every major release not having a theatrical box office revenue that at least matches the budget.
Other animation studios had better success this year that matches the increase of theatrical attendance growth.

It would have been nice if that billion and a half of theater attendance increase could ha e not been a year where Disney lost the most.

You can keep saying this but it doesn't mean its going to be sustainable or some kind of trend. Next year could show that audience participation flat lines or completely falls off. Especially since there are no major movies opening until March.

 

[celluloid]

You can keep saying this but it doesn't mean its going to be sustainable or some kind of trend. Next year could show that audience participation flat lines or completely falls off. Especially since there are no major movies opening until March.

Does not have to be a trend. Look at it that this year and Disney still has a bigger issue than everyone else in both animation and family market.

 

[_caleb]

Trolls 3, deserves to be the kind of movie to only make its money back on streaming, and I say this as a father with a daughter who loves the others and think all the holiday specials and shirts uave been fun. Trolls 3 was just not that good, but clearly better appreciated than Wish. And that is scary.
I don't mind an animated.movie doing badly is the product is not good.

The issue is a Disney Princess.movie is has a worse audience reception than Trolls 3.

Boy and The Heron, Mario and Spiderverse all did well this year so it is not like Animation is dire.

Do you really think those three successful animated films are an indication that the industry is just fine?

 

[celluloid]

Do you really think those three successful animated films are an indication that the industry is just fine?

Define fine? It's relative right? It is better than last year for most studios, except for one company.(maybe 2 with Paramount but loss is not the same)

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

If Disney were to announce on Friday that Wish was getting a surprise Christmas Day release, I don't think they'd be leaving much on the table. They've seen how it has performed after a month in theaters and I doubt the holiday season is going to make or break the film's profitability at this point.

I think I’d go back to a paid pre-release, 3 months in theaters, 3 months as a paid download, and then released on D+ “for free”.

Streaming is hurting the box office but also destroying the physical disk market, they should try to capture some of that revenue back.

A lot of people who aren't willing to fork over $80 to take the wife and kids to the theater would probably be more than willing to fork over $10 to get it on D+ 3 months earlier.

It might not be a huge money maker but if they could get a couple % of their subscribers to bite it could add $25-50 million per release, not exactly chump change.

It would also keep the release at 6 months which I still think is necessary if they ever want to get my butt back in a theater seat, or get my money via a download.

 

[Disney Irish]

Does not have to be a trend. Look at it that this year and Disney still has a bigger issue than everyone else in both animation and family market.

And Disney had bad years before, heck one could say that most of the 70s and 80s were bad decades at the box office for Disney. So yes this is has been a particularly bad year for Disney, still doesn't show a trend over the overall box office. This year could just be anomaly and everything starts to go back in Disney's direction next year.

 

[DKampy]

People in this thread keep saying Disney needs to retain their audience, but I think it's too late for that. Too many direct to streaming, or 1 month later releases have taken their toll.

I also don't think subscribers will be happy to wait 6 months+ for these releases. Not if there's now fewer new releases overall.

I did not hear many complaints that it took dial of destiny….plus I don’t think the new releases is what attracts subscriber base it is having access to the legacy Disney library

 

[DKampy]

Yes, because compared to the previous Disney live action musicals, The Little Mermaid flopped domestically.

And with its huge production budget of $250 Million and a marketing budget of $140 Million, The Little Mermaid lost just over $100 Million for Disney at the box office. It lost Disney $100 Million, and that shouldn't have happened.

And in foreign markets it was an even bigger flop. Foreigners did not choose to see The Little Mermaid '23.

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So then Fast X Flopped when compared to the other Fast and Furious movies

 

[celluloid]

And Disney had bad years before, heck one could say that most of the 70s and 80s were bad decades at the box office for Disney. So yes this is has been a particularly bad year for Disney, still doesn't show a trend over the overall box office. This year could just be anomaly and everything starts to go back in Disney's direction next year.

The Kingdom of The Planet of The Apes and Hulu Aliens movie with not much new family say that is doubtful. What we do know is in fact, that Disney has a studio wide problem of not appealing to families the way they traditionally did. The brand thus, is damaged.

Everything they released underperformed. No other studio(except for maybe Paramount) can say that.

 

[celluloid]

So then Fast X Flopped when compared to the other Fast and Furious movies

For sure. This is tenth movie(11 in Universe) in an oversaturated series and third movie after the lead died. Like Marvel, it had to hit a less ROI margin eventually. Globally though, while of course not as much of a cut, more than justifies it as a good business move. Less margin is not the same as losing 100 million dollars.

 

[Disney Irish]

Rise of The Planet of The Apes and Hulu Aliens movie with not much new family say that is doubtful. What we do know is in fact, that Disney has a studio wide problem of not appealing to families the way they traditionally did. The brand thus, is damaged.

Everything they released underperformed. No other studio(except for maybe Paramount) can say that.

They have Inside Out 2 for a family release. And also Deadpool 3 for an MCU release. Both of which will hopefully be good draws.

They will also finally release Bikeriders, which might be a good draw. And for Thanksgiving they still have that little known movie called Who Shrank Daniel Funk scheduled, we'll see if that actually releases or not.

There are a few others still on the schedule too, so we'll see what happens with those. So they have like 10-12 releases on the calendar for 2024. We'll see how they all do.

 

[celluloid]

They have Inside Out 2 for a family release. And also Deadpool 3 for an MCU release. Both of which will hopefully be good draws.

They will also finally release Bikeriders, which might be a good draw. And for Thanksgiving they still have that little known movie called Who Shrank Daniel Funk scheduled, we'll see if that actually releases or not.

There are a few others still on the schedule too, so we'll see what happens with those. So they have like 10-12 releases on the calendar for 2024. We'll see how they all do.

Depends on the perception of Inside Out 2. It will be their only strong profitable likely one when you consider all the other factors unless somehow the sci fi fans really show out for Apes and Aliens.

If the perception of Inside Out 2 is they lean the wrong way into handling puberty themes(with show sensitive their brand has been perceived) it will probably do better than the latest Despicable Me film, but not a lot domestically. Both will probably out perform Kung Fu Panda 4, but seems Universal will have another year as the family choice.

 

[Disney Irish]

Depends on the perception of Inside Out 2. It will be their only strong profitable likely one when you consider all the other factors unless somehow the sci fi fans really show out for Apes and Aliens.

If the perception of Inside Out 2 is they lean the wrong way into handling puberty themes(with show sensitive their brand has been perceived) it will probably do better than the latest Despicable Me film, but not a lot domestically. Both will probably out perform Kung Fu Panda 4, but seems Universal will have another year as the family choice.

Potentially but I'm not putting any bold predictions on it like you seem to be. All I'm saying is that there is potential for Disney to have a better year next year than this year.

The only one I will make a prediction on is Deadpool 3 as it brings Reynolds and Jackman together in both their iconic roles for Marvel. This outside of any perceived "superhero fatigue" should be a good enough draw that it brings a positive light back to the MCU. So I think it'll do well overall.