Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

This should come as no surprise. Ms Marvel had the lowest viewership numbers of all the D+ series, and the current MCU phase films seem to be all over the place (tonally and story wise).

I didn't know that. So I just did some Googling. The Ms. Marvel show only had one season, and no second season has been announced. The first season of Ms. Marvel is in fact the lowest rated Marvel show on Disney+.

I can't imagine that Ms. Marvel is a franchise to springboard off into a $220 Million tentpole film. But according to Google, the other lady in this crime fighting trio is from the Wandavision show, which was far more popular than Ms. Marvel.

I found this Nielsen info for 2022, and highlighted the other Marvel shows on Disney+ in comparison to Ms. Marvel.

 

[TP2000]

This is crazy. I just checked The Numbers and that Taylor Swift movie is doing Barbie-ish levels of business this weekend.

It's headed to a $100 Million opening, burying the competition and putting The Creator to bed for the weekend. I assumed it would be popular, but had no idea it was this big. And it must be a huge profit generator for Miss Swift, who I'm thrilled for because she does truly seem like a savvy, lovely, and talented young woman. I just wished I knew what songs she sings.

Box Office data for the weekend will be in tomorrow evening, but this is just nuts to me.

Taylor Swift ‘Eras Tour’ Film Headed Toward $100M Opening at Box Office

Taylor Swift's new concert film "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" is headed for a $100 million domestic opening, according to estimates by AMC Theatres.

www.billboard.com

 

[Disney Analyst]

This is crazy. I just checked The Numbers and that Taylor Swift movie is doing Barbie-ish levels of business this weekend.

It's headed to a $100 Million opening, burying the competition and putting The Creator to bed for the weekend. I assumed it would be popular, but had no idea it was this big. And it must be a huge profit generator for Miss Swift, who I'm thrilled for because she does truly seem like a savvy, lovely, and talented young woman. I just wished I knew what songs she sings.

Box Office data for the weekend will be in tomorrow evening, but this is just nuts to me.

Taylor Swift ‘Eras Tour’ Film Headed Toward $100M Opening at Box Office

Taylor Swift's new concert film "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" is headed for a $100 million domestic opening, according to estimates by AMC Theatres.

www.billboard.com

No one should ever bet against Taylor Swift. She’s basically at this point the biggest star, selling out stadiums like nobodies business.

Just wait until they announce what her tour grossed, and then add in this film of that very tour…

 

[TP2000]

No one should ever bet against Taylor Swift. She’s basically at this point the biggest star, selling out stadiums like nobodies business.

Just wait until they announce what her tour grossed, and then add in this film of that very tour…

No kidding. I Googled what this movie's budget was. Taylor Swift produced it herself in-house through her own production company, which saved her a bunch of money compared to having another studio do it for her and all the profits go to her, and it had a production budget of just $20 Million (highest estimate).

She's going to make a fortune just from this weekend's box office!

My earlier description of her as "savvy, lovely, and talented" seems to be an understatement.

 

[Disney Analyst]

No kidding. I Googled what this movie's budget was. Taylor Swift produced it herself in-house through her own production company, which saved her a bunch of money compared to having another studio do it for her and all the profits go to her, and it had a production budget of just $20 Million (highest estimate).

She's going to make a fortune just from this weekend's box office!

And they are only showing Thursday-Sunday, so next weeks gross will not have numbers for Monday-Wednesday.

Bet it still does crazy business, even with only 4 days a week.

 

[Tha Realest]

And they are only showing Thursday-Sunday, so next weeks gross will not have numbers for Monday-Wednesday.

Bet it still does crazy business, even with only 4 days a week.

I predicted a few weeks ago she’d have a bigger domestic opening weekend than The Marvels. I remain confident in that prediction…

 

[Tha Realest]

No one should ever bet against Taylor Swift. She’s basically at this point the biggest star, selling out stadiums like nobodies business.

Just wait until they announce what her tour grossed, and then add in this film of that very tour…

I hope Shawn Levy and Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman put the full court press on her to appear as Dazzler in Deadpool 3 (it’s been rumored). Swifties would come out in force.

 

[Indy_UK]

The Creator is now tracking towards a $100 Million global total a few weeks from now, which would mean it will lose between $60 and $70 Million for Disney's 20th Century Studios. On the bright side, it could have been much worse had Disney not kept the budget "comparatively low" at just $80 Million, plus marketing costs.

Hang on a minute? I had to just re-read this !!!!

Disney gave them a budget (excluding marketing I assume) of just $80 million?

I am actually intrigued to see this now. Is it any good? Whoever approved this budget should be doing this for all of Disneys productions.

 

[Tha Realest]

Hang on a minute? I had to just re-read this !!!!

Disney gave them a budget (excluding marketing I assume) of just $80 million?

I am actually intrigued to see this now. Is it any good? Whoever approved this budget should be doing this for all of Disneys productions.

1) Reliable, proven director that comes in on budget
2) Lack of movie stars - mostly TV stars - means modest cast budget (Eisner trick)
3) Minimal VFX, other than time period establishing shots

 

[TP2000]

I predicted a few weeks ago she’d have a bigger domestic opening weekend than The Marvels. I remain confident in that prediction…

Taylor Swift's concert movie just had a $97 Million opening weekend domestically. It ran in 3,885 theaters nationwide, and made $25,162 per theater. That's huge.

The Marvels is currently forecast to have an opening weekend of $50 to $75 Million, per Box Office Pro.

Barring some sudden surge in ticket sales/interest in The Marvels, it looks like your prediction will be accurate.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios' THE MARVELS

2023's holiday movie season gets its first tentpole release on November 10 with the 33rd chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Marvels.

www.boxofficepro.com

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[TP2000]

Hang on a minute? I had to just re-read this !!!!

Disney gave them a budget (excluding marketing I assume) of just $80 million?

I am actually intrigued to see this now. Is it any good? Whoever approved this budget should be doing this for all of Disneys productions.

Apparently it's a Sci Fi movie set later in the 21st century when A.I. robots have taken over the world. And the angle to the movie is that A.I. is a rather sympathetic figure in that scenario, which isn't really a winning message in the USA right now.

The Creator was made by Disney's 20th Century Studios for only $80 Million, but it has flopped at the box office. Assuming that Disney spent $40 Million on its global marketing in addition to the $80 Million production budget, The Creator is currently on track to lose at least $60 Million at the box office for Disney.

There is a short thread about The Creator and its plot/characters here, but not many folks are talking about it in that thread, which the global box office results seem to mirror...

The Creator, 20th Century Theatrical Release, Sep 29, 2023

https://thedisinsider.com/2023/09/07/advance-tickets-for-20th-century-studios-the-creator-now-on-sale/

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[TP2000]

Weekend box office results are in for the USA. Taylor Swift is clearly in charge of the domestic box office in mid October.

The only real Disney angle to this weekend's box office is that The Creator lost 720 theaters in its third weekend.
Apparently Miss Swift needed them.

 

[TP2000]

DVD and Blu-Ray sales have been crashing for the past 5 years, and now they are now down to a trickle of the revenue stream.

After Christmas, it will be more difficult to even find them any more in some stores...

Best Buy to cease selling DVD and Blu-ray media after the holidays

Best Buy customers apparently will soon no longer have the ability to purchase DVDs or Blu-ray discs from the retailer. That's happening in 2024, according to reports.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[celluloid]

It is wild that Blumhouse's worst reviewed critically (Halloween Ends too) is still outperforming Saw X and Disney's dismal Parot picture.
Five Nights at Freddy's is likely to do fairly well in two weeks for an October finale too.

Domestic Box office has now back on track to to 2019 levels. And it is not December yet. Not a good year to not have a single Smash hit Disney.

 

[Tha Realest]

It is wild that Blumhouse's worst reviewed critically (Halloween Ends too) is still outperforming Saw X and Disney's dismal Parot picture.
Five Nights at Freddy's is likely to do fairly well in two weeks for an October finale too.

Domestic Box office has now back on track to to 2019 levels. And it is not December yet. Not a good year to not have a single Smash hit Disney.

It was the Halloween bump meant for HM

 

[celluloid]

It was the Halloween bump meant for HM

I think The Exorcist Believer was always going to do better business than HM remake. Partly because Blumhouse is always a fun time on what it does, even when not the best, and another because it was marketed correctly on a more modest budget. Disney's Parot movie could not even benefit from being the sotphisticated halloween time film.

 

[BrianLo]

I think we're all just biding time for Wish to save us from these doldrums.

 

[Disney Irish]

Domestic Box office has now back on track to to 2019 levels. And it is not December yet.

Not sure where you get your data from, but 2023 is currently tracking to be ~$2B (or about 15%) less than 2019 by the end of the year.

2019 was ~$8.7B by this point of the year, so unless there is another Barbenheimer in your back pocket I can't see how 2023 with its current ~$7.3B is going to top the ~$11.2B of 2019.

Domestic Yearly Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2023

Annual Movie Market Summary for 2023

www.the-numbers.com

 

[celluloid]

Not sure where you get your data from, but 2023 is currently tracking to be ~$2B (or about 15%) less than 2019 by the end of the year.

2019 was ~$8.7B by this point of the year, so unless there is another Barbenheimer in your back pocket I can't see how 2023 with its current ~$7.3B is going to top the ~$11.2B of 2019.

Domestic Yearly Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary for Year 2023

Annual Movie Market Summary for 2023

www.the-numbers.com

I did not mean to incinuate exact, but the highest since 2019.

For Disney's sake, they better hope.

Trolls 3 and Illumination's Migration are going to have those numbers jump right up. Wish might too.

 

[TP2000]

I think we're all just biding time for Wish to save us from these doldrums.

After the autumn box office flops of A Haunting In Venice and The Creator, and now the alarmingly low pre-sales box office figures for The Marvels next month heading into Thanksgiving....

Wish is the last and final hope that one of Disney's flagship mega-budget studios might have a big hit this year.

Imagine that? Disney with a profitable tentpole mega-budget movie!?! Don't tease us. Stop. Don't.

Even if Wish is a Barbie-level hit, Disney will have lost $700 Million at the box office in 2023. $700 Million could have built an E Ticket for WDW, and a night parade each for Disneyland and Magic Kingdom. Sad, but true.

On the other hand, if The Marvels and Wish are both big money losers, Disney will lose $1 Billion+ at the box office this year.

$1 Billion would have been an E Ticket each for WDW and DLR, plus a new night parade for Disneyland and Magic Kingdom. And at least a half dozen refurbished and upgraded break rooms for the CM's, just for fun.