Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Another way of ranking things:

Distributors Movie Breakdown for 2023

Distributors Movie Breakdown for 2023

www.the-numbers.com

That's a fascinating find! I just love that The Numbers site.

But looking at that, it has Universal at 16 movie releases in 2023 instead of the 9 that I counted, but that's because it's counting the dwindling ticket sales of January, 2023 from three or four movies released in November or December of 2022.

Also an apparent re-release Universal did of its 1974 horror film "The Wicker Man", selling a total of 5,840 tickets for a box office take of $61,496. (I have to assume that was a college campus showing, or an obscure art house film festival or something) The other studios are similar, including a few dwindling ticket sales from January '23 based on their Thanksgiving/Christmas releases six weeks earlier.

Would you like me to tally those Top 5 movie studios including any movie they released in 2022 that continued to have some ticket sales into January, 2023? Because I am happy to do that. It could be interesting.

Originally, I had three studios plus Disney in this tally. But the Top 5 on that list also includes Sony Pictures. I'll have to add them, as I've had Sony TV's, DVD players, and stereo systems for decades and adore them.

Universal = $509 Million Profit (from 9 movies so far)
Warner Brothers = $196 Million Profit (from 6 movies so far)
Paramount = $308 Million Loss (from 6 movies so far)
Walt Disney Co. = $757 Million Loss (from 10 movies so far)
Sony Pictures = ???? Stay Tuned!

 

[TP2000]

An example of that scenario of including 2023 movies that were released in late 2022 is like this one below from Universal, that I did not include in the original tally because it's release date was in 2022. But it was just 10 days before the ball dropped on 2023 and Anderson Cooper and Andy Cohen were buzzed and awkward on national TV.

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish did about 60% of its box office after December 31st, 2022. It made a net profit of about $107 Million for Universal.

If we include it as the 10th film of 2023 for Universal, that adds $107 Million to Uni's total for '23 and we end up with this tally instead....

Universal = $616 Million Profit (from 10 movies so far)
Warner Brothers = $196 Million Profit (from 6 movies so far)
Paramount = $308 Million Loss (from 6 movies so far)
Walt Disney Co. = $757 Million Loss (from 10 movies so far)

Puss In Boots: $90 Production, $45 Marketing, Box Office Take $242 = $107 Million Profit

 

[tcool123]

Taking @DKampy's suggestion, I tallied the 2023 box office results for some of Disney's major competitors.

This isn't comprehensive of all studios by any means. I'm happy to summarize other studios if anyone has a suggestion. On the numbers below, I didn't count movies where a studio was "distribution only" and it was made by some other studio (that's confusing, isn't it?). These are purely the movies these studio companies produced themselves.

If you are going to be comparing all of Disney's output from all of its studios then you should be doing the same for each comparison for a better and more comprehensive data set. Otherwise your data will be skewed as you're being selective of what you decide to show versus what you don't.

For Universal Pictures you're missing the films from Focus Features.

For Warner Brothers you're missing select films from New Line Cinema, but it's really just House Party and a biggie with Shazam! Fury of the Gods.

I didn't count movies where a studio was "distribution only" and it was made by some other studio (that's confusing, isn't it?).

Not that it makes a difference, but Theater Camp was distribution only as that's what Searchlight spent 8 million on. It is the smallest of numbers, but it adds to the muddling of these selected numbers. If you don't count distribution only then Theater Camp should be removed, but if you don't then distribution only films should be included as well. I'm not sure if this would change literally anything, but something to note.

 

[LittleBuford]

Would you like me to tally those Top 5 movie studios including any movie they released in 2022 that continued to have some ticket sales into January, 2023? Because I am happy to do that. It could be interesting.

I'm not asking you to do anything!

 

[TP2000]

Not that it makes a difference, but Theater Camp was distribution only as that's what Searchlight spent 8 million on. It is the smallest of numbers, but it adds to the muddling of these selected numbers. If you don't count distribution only then Theater Camp should be removed, but if you don't then distribution only films should be included as well. I'm not sure if this would change literally anything, but something to note.

It's a rabbit hole, to be sure.

But what I did was go to the Wikipedia page for each studio where it lists the films the studio is releasing in chronological order. Stuff that went to streaming, Peacock or Disney+, etc. was ignored. Only theatrical releases were used by me. And if it said something like "Distribution Only", I didn't count it.

Thus, House Party wasn't included for Jack Warner's tally, but Magic Mike's Last Dance was. In fairness, both bombed.

To be honest, I'm not even sure what a studio gets out of a "Distribution Only" deal, but it didn't seem impressive to me when I was reading Wikipedia.

And now I see your point about Shazam; it's listed as "Distribution Only", but it was produced by New Line which is a Warner's subsidiary. I'll add it back in, and can do the same for House Party too.

After tennis tomorrow, what I think I'll do is go back and add in all the Thanksgiving/Christmas movies that still were doing box office business in January, 2023 and tally them in as counting towards "2023". And add up Sony Pictures, which seems to have over a dozen small to mid sized movies they had in '23.

List of Warner Bros. films (2020–2029) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List of Universal Pictures films (2020–2029) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List of Paramount Pictures films (2020–2029) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List of Walt Disney Studios films (2020–2029) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DKampy]

I find it wild that someone who has no interest in modern day movies or even going to the theater to watch one…is so interested in what is going on at the box office… much less believes he is an expert in such matters

 

[Dranth]

The main takeaway for me is that with the way all the major studios are operating now you are going to either lose money or bring in a small profit unless you get a major hit somewhere in the year. One Mario covers 4-5 bad releases and without that, you aren't going to do well because a large percentages of new movies lose money in the theatrical run.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The main takeaway for me is that with the way all the major studios are operating now you are going to either lose money or bring in a small profit unless you get a major hit somewhere in the year. One Mario covers 4-5 bad releases and without that, you aren't going to do well because a large percentages of new movies lose money in the theatrical run.

And frankly, this is how it has always been. Hollywood and their budgets have always been a dubious, secretive enterprise.

 

[TP2000]

I find it wild that someone who has no interest in modern day movies or even going to the theater to watch one…is so interested in what is going on at the box office… much less believes he is an expert in such matters

I'm certainly no expert. I'm just a guy sitting on my patio doing Google searches and skimming Wikipedia pages.

I've never been a movie person. I can go a year or so without seeing a movie, and generally just go along with family at Christmas or in summer. Which is why my family flipped out when I insisted we all go see Barbie together.

But, I have found this new enthusiasm of tracking Disney's movie financials. In a world where the parks are always under the budgetary thumb and cutting costs and perks continually and constantly lowering their standards to eek out a few extra bucks, it's fascinating to me that the same company can spend $250 Million on a movie and another $140 Million on its marketing, and then it doesn't even break even. And no one gets fired for that, and they just continue on to the next $300 Million movie that flops even bigger 3 weeks later.

Meanwhile... there is currently no new ride under construction at any American Disney theme park, no park expansions have been approved and announced for either Disneyland nor WDW, and neither Disneyland nor WDW currently have a night parade or any night parade under construction. But they paid Harrison Ford $25 Million to flop in Indy 5???

 

[LittleBuford]

But they paid Harrison Ford $25 Million to flop in Indy 5???

None of these films was designed to flop, nor is there anything about them that would inherently doom them to failure. Mermaid was a better remake than Lion King and Aladdin yet did significantly worse than them. Most people who’ve seen the new Indy film and posted about it here seem to have enjoyed it, with the general consensus being that it’s a better movie than the previous instalment.

None of this changes the unfortunate fact that these films haven’t proven profitable, but you’re making it seem as if Disney stepped into this situation knowingly and as if we could have all have seen this coming. The truth is that it’s a rather recent phenomenon and not altogether easy to explain.

 

[TP2000]

The main takeaway for me is that with the way all the major studios are operating now you are going to either lose money or bring in a small profit unless you get a major hit somewhere in the year. One Mario covers 4-5 bad releases and without that, you aren't going to do well because a large percentages of new movies lose money in the theatrical run.

Agreed. But the problem that seems to apply only to Disney is that Disney has these incredibly bloated mega-budgets for nearly every movie they do lately. Nothing is done in moderation, it's almost all mega-budget bloat at Disney's studios.

Using the data I compiled above, here's the average cost per film in 2023 for each of those 4 major studios:

Universal = $509 Million Profit from 9 Films, Average Production Budget Per Film is $89 Million
Warner Bros. = $196 Million Profit from 6 Films, Average Production Budget Per Film is $110 Million
Paramount = $308 Million Loss from 6 Films, Average Production Budget Per Film is $129 Million

And then there's the Walt Disney Company...

Disney = $757 Million Loss from 9 Films, Average Production Budget Per Film is $167 Million

There seems to be a direct correlation to Disney's bloated budgets, almost double what Universal spends per film, and Disney's financial losses at the box office. Perhaps if Disney stopped spending $250 Million regularly, and instead aimed for a budget half of that, the business model would begin working again for Disney at the box office?

 

[TP2000]

None of this changes the unfortunate fact that these films haven’t proven profitable, but you’re making it seem as if Disney stepped into this situation knowingly and as if we could have all have seen this coming. The truth is that it’s a rather recent phenomenon and not altogether easy to explain.

Who has been fired for these decisions that lost them hundreds of millions of dollars?

I can't find any record that any studio senior exec has been let go for the box office disaster of 2023.

But if a Parks exec doesn't raise prices on Genie+ fast enough, they're out. How many Parks Chairmen have there been in the last decade? 4? How many senior Parks execs have been fired left suddenly to spend more time with family in just the past few years? I can think of several off the top of my head... Michael Colglazier, Catherine Powell, Rebecca Campbell, etc.

 

[LittleBuford]

Who has been fired for these decisions that lost them hundreds of millions of dollars?

I can't find any record that any studio senior exec has been let go for the box office disaster of 2023.

But if a Parks exec doesn't raise prices on Genie+ fast enough, they're out. How many Parks Chairmen have there been in the last decade? 4? How many senior Parks execs have been fired left suddenly to spend more time with family in just the past few years? I can think of several off the top of my head... Michael Colglazier, Catherine Powell, Rebecca Campbell, etc.

This has nothing to do with what I wrote. In fact, you’re missing (or ignoring) my point: that the decisions behind the films were not in themselves destined to have bad outcomes, even if that’s what’s ended up happening.

 

[TP2000]

Looking at that data above about production budgets per film, Paramount seems to have been undone by its one Disney-sized budget; the $290 Million they spent on Mission: Impossible. And it barely did better than Indy 5.

Disney has simply got to get its budgets under control. I still think it's time to merge Pixar and WDAS into one group, and consolidate their staff and production facilities into one location in Burbank. Pixar can no longer seem to justify the expense of its separate swanky studio 400 miles north up in Emeryville.

 

[TP2000]

This has nothing to do with what I wrote. In fact, you’re missing (or ignoring) my point: that the decisions behind the films were not in themselves destined to have bad outcomes, even if that’s what’s ended up happening.

But that is what happened. They've lost hundreds of millions of dollars because the executives leading these projects made bad decisions that didn't pull in enough customers. Hence, a $757 Million box office loss and counting for 2023.

We haven't even added in The Creator yet, and that flop is going to lose them at least another $50 Million.

If the Disneyland President decides to offer free tickets on your birthday and it causes huge crowds with very low per-capita spending per guest and costs TDA $100 Million in added costs and lost profits, that Disneyland President is fired must leave to spend more time with their family before they get a job at Hilton or The Gap a month later.

What will the Walt Disney Company be doing to ensure the massive financial losses at the 2023 box office don't happen again? And which studio chiefs lost their job because of it? I haven't heard a word on that, have you?

 

[LittleBuford]

But that is what happened. They've lost hundreds of millions of dollars because the executives leading these projects made bad decisions that didn't pull in enough customers. Hence, a $757 Million box office loss and counting for 2023.

We haven't even added in The Creator yet, and that flop is going to lose them at least another $50 Million.

If the Disneyland President decides to offer free tickets on your birthday and it causes huge crowds with very low per-capita spending per guest and costs TDA $100 Million in added costs and lost profits, that Disneyland President is fired must leave to spend more time with their family before they get a job at Hilton or The Gap a month later.

What will the Walt Disney Company be doing to ensure the massive financial losses at the 2023 box office don't happen again? And which studio chiefs lost their job because of it? I haven't heard a word on that, have you?

Again, there was nothing predictable about the failure or underperformance of most of these films, which is why it isn’t fair or accurate to attribute what happened to bad decision-making. The same applies to recent non-Disney box-office disappointments too, prominent among them the latest Mission: Impossible film.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

None of these films was designed to flop, nor is there anything about them that would inherently doom them to failure. Mermaid was a better remake than Lion King and Aladdin yet did significantly worse than them. Most people who’ve seen the new Indy film and posted about it here seem to have enjoyed it, with the general consensus being that it’s a better movie than the previous instalment.

None of this changes the unfortunate fact that these films haven’t proven profitable, but you’re making it seem as if Disney stepped into this situation knowingly and as if we could have all have seen this coming. The truth is that it’s a rather recent phenomenon and not altogether easy to explain.

If you asked just about anyone if it was a good idea to make Indy 5, they would say yes. Indy (and Star Wars in the Lucasfilm family) have always done well regardless of reviews.

It's hilarious to sit in judgement from one's couch with 20/20 hindsight.

 

[TP2000]

Again, there was nothing predictable about the failure or underperformance of most of these films, which is why it isn’t fair or accurate to attribute what happened to bad decision-making. The same applies to recent non-Disney box-office disappointments too, prominent among them the latest Mission: Impossible film.

So basically, what you are saying is that the laws of business and the free market don't apply to Disney's studio executives?

They didn't mean to lose $700 Million at the box office, it just happened by accident through no fault of their own. Oopsies!

And so the studio executive leadership shouldn't be blamed or take any responsibility for those losses? Unlike every other private business working in a Capitalist free market economy, who would fire an exec ASAP if they lost even a fraction of what Disney's studios lost the past six months?

I should have gotten a job in Hollywood. Like a fool, I worked my butt off in Industrial Supply for 40 years trying to earn a profit (rather successfully, if I do say so myself) for my boss and our company's shareholders.

 

[TP2000]

It's hilarious to sit in judgement from one's couch with 20/20 hindsight.

That's not an invalid point. This is Monday morning quarterbacking of the highest order.

But as we continue to tally up money-losing movies from Disney all year long (The Creator is now flopping badly, and will be factored in to the losses by the end of October), the question becomes... What Happens Now?

Which coincidentally is the title of this thread.

Does Disney just double down on their current strategy? Keep spending $200 Million here, $250 Million there, with giant $100 Million marketing budgets and a fleet of private jets to ferry the celebrities to Cannes every year for more standing ovations?

Or does Burbank retrench and rethink? Fire senior executives who were responsible for making the decisions that led to these huge losses. Consolidate and merge existing studios who now have broadly overlapping operations/audiences (Pixar and WDAS). Go through a very tough but needed round of staff reductions, layoffs, and leveraging new technology to replace a lot of white collar folks that aren't needed. Scale back perks and expenses like company cars, subsidized catering, Christmas parties, the private fleet of Gulfstreams idling at Van Nuys Airport, etc., etc.

I hope the What Happens Now? part of this thread isn't just more of the same in 2024 and '25. Because that is simply unsustainable for Disney in its current state.

 

[LittleBuford]

So basically, what you are saying is that the laws of business and the free market don't apply to Disney's studio executives?

Nope. But I think I’ve made my point about as clearly as I’m able to, so time to move on.