Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[LittleBuford]

If you asked just about anyone if it was a good idea to make Indy 5, they would say yes. Indy (and Star Wars in the Lucasfilm family) have always done well regardless of reviews.

It's hilarious to sit in judgement from one's couch with 20/20 hindsight.

The box office has become wildly unpredictable, and to pretend otherwise is, well, to pretend. Elemental’s remarkable recovery encapsulates how weird things have got. I’m very curious to see how Wish will do, in part because it feels like a total toss-up to me. I have no idea whether it will prove a billion-dollar hit or an abject flop, and I won’t be much surprised either way.

 

[TP2000]

Barring some sudden reversal in audience demand, The Creator won't break even at the box office now.

What's troubling there is that this was one of Disney's thriftiest movies of the year with a "mere" (Disneyspeak version of "mere") budget of $80 Million. That's second only to the $60 Million that Disney spent on A Haunting In Venice, which also flopped and will also lose money for Disney.

So as much as I've hammered them for the mega-budgets and private jet fleets to Cannes for cringey standing ovations, even the modestly budgeted Disney films need to perform better at the box office. Breaking even would be nice for a change, but dare we even hope for a small profit from one of Disney's smaller films?

The Creator's Box Office Failure Says A Lot About The State Of Sci-Fi Cinema - SlashFilm

Sci-fi might be the most popular genre right now, but it's dominated by franchises, as evidenced by The Creator's disappointing box office opening weekend.

www.slashfilm.com

 

[Disstevefan1]

Barring some sudden reversal in audience demand, The Creator won't break even at the box office now.

What's troubling there is that this was one of Disney's thriftiest movies of the year with a "mere" (Disneyspeak version of "mere") budget of $80 Million. That's second only to the $60 Million that Disney spent on A Haunting In Venice, which also flopped and will also lose money for Disney.

So as much as I've hammered them for the mega-budgets and private jet fleets to Cannes for cringey standing ovations, even the modestly budgeted Disney films need to perform better at the box office. Breaking even would be nice for a change, but dare we even hope for a small profit from one of Disney's smaller films?

The Creator's Box Office Failure Says A Lot About The State Of Sci-Fi Cinema - SlashFilm

Sci-fi might be the most popular genre right now, but it's dominated by franchises, as evidenced by The Creator's disappointing box office opening weekend.

www.slashfilm.com

If the creator cant break even at the box office with its budget of $80 Million.

DISNEY WILL NEVER, EVER BREAK EVEN AGAIN AT THE BOX OFFICE

 

[TP2000]

If the creator cant break even at the box office with its budget of $80 Million.

DISNEY WILL NEVER, EVER BREAK EVEN AGAIN AT THE BOX OFFICE

It's actually worse than that for The Creator. On its current trajectory it will struggle to break the $100 Million mark at the global box office, which means that it will lose at least $50 Million or more for Disney.

But I was trying to be nice and set the bar lower for it as simply "won't break even".

 

[Disney Irish]

So basically, what you are saying is that the laws of business and the free market don't apply to Disney's studio executives?

They didn't mean to lose $700 Million at the box office, it just happened by accident through no fault of their own. Oopsies!

And so the studio executive leadership shouldn't be blamed or take any responsibility for those losses? Unlike every other private business working in a Capitalist free market economy, who would fire an exec ASAP if they lost even a fraction of what Disney's studios lost the past six months?

I should have gotten a job in Hollywood. Like a fool, I worked my butt off in Industrial Supply for 40 years trying to earn a profit (rather successfully, if I do say so myself) for my boss and our company's shareholders.

Its very rare for Hollywood executives to get fired for box office performance, it happens but very rare. Its the reason why you have so many entrenched executives walking the halls at every studio around Hollywood. Its not a Disney thing, its a Hollywood thing.

So you keep asking who at Disney Studios is getting fired, likely nobody at least not at the executive level. Maybe some underlings might get fired and there is maybe some shuffling of staff positions within the company but that is probably about it. And sorry your dream of WDAS and Pixar merging operations is also not likely to happen either.

So very little is going to change other than they will be more risk adverse in the future with picking projects and maybe tweaking budgets, ie look for more sequels to come out.

 

[Ghost93]

So very little is going to change other than they will be more risk adverse in the future with picking projects and maybe tweaking budgets, ie look for more sequels to come out.

It's really a no-win situation. Being risk averse will just result in bland projects like the live-action remakes and Marvel movies that general audiences are now growing tired of. Movies like Barbie and Oppenheimer did well at the box office this year because they took some risks with their storytelling and it paid off.

Disney needs to take risks in order to make something special. Unfortunately, whenever you take a risk there is no guarantee it will work out. For every bold movie that is a surprise breakout hit, there are several others that shoot for the moon and miss.

 

[Disney Irish]

It's really a no-win situation. Being risk averse will just result in bland projects like the live-action remakes and Marvel movies that general audiences are now growing tired of. Movies like Barbie and Oppenheimer did well at the box office this year because they took some risks with their storytelling and it paid off.

Disney needs to take risks in order to make something special. Unfortunately, whenever you take a risk there is no guarantee it will work out. For every bold movie that is a surprise breakout hit, there are several others that shoot for the moon and miss.

I agree its a no-win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Take a risk, potentially get a bomb. Don't take a risk, and still potentially getting a bomb due to audience boredom.

The whole industry is scrambling to figure out what to do next, its not just a Disney thing. For the handful of movies that did well this year, there are a couple hundred or so movies that failed. Which for those not paying attention is about normal every year.

And its funny as we've had this same conversation in this very thread a couple months ago.

 

[Disstevefan1]

So basically, what you are saying is that the laws of business and the free market don't apply to Disney's studio executives?

They didn't mean to lose $700 Million at the box office, it just happened by accident through no fault of their own. Oopsies!

And so the studio executive leadership shouldn't be blamed or take any responsibility for those losses? Unlike every other private business working in a Capitalist free market economy, who would fire an exec ASAP if they lost even a fraction of what Disney's studios lost the past six months?

I should have gotten a job in Hollywood. Like a fool, I worked my butt off in Industrial Supply for 40 years trying to earn a profit (rather successfully, if I do say so myself) for my boss and our company's shareholders.

 

[TP2000]

Looking at the box office stats for Thursday, a 2023 Disney movie has just gone silent is now only "for free" on Disney+.

Haunted Mansion went to Disney+ for no upcharge on October 4th, and that's the same day that it was removed for its last remaining theaters in the USA. There will be no "Halloween Bump" at the box office for Haunted Mansion.

It's over, and it lost $175 Million for Disney.

Haunted Mansion: Production Budget $157, Marketing Budget $75, Domestic B.O. $40, Overseas B.O. $17 = $175 Million Loss

 

[Dranth]

So basically, what you are saying is that the laws of business and the free market don't apply to Disney's studio executives?

They didn't mean to lose $700 Million at the box office, it just happened by accident through no fault of their own. Oopsies!

And so the studio executive leadership shouldn't be blamed or take any responsibility for those losses? Unlike every other private business working in a Capitalist free market economy, who would fire an exec ASAP if they lost even a fraction of what Disney's studios lost the past six months?

I should have gotten a job in Hollywood. Like a fool, I worked my butt off in Industrial Supply for 40 years trying to earn a profit (rather successfully, if I do say so myself) for my boss and our company's shareholders.

Pre pandemic the studios were on a decade plus run of doing extremely well so you want to fire the people who created that because they hit a bad streak? Instead, why not look at what changed between when they were successful and now to see if there is some underlying cause instead of assume that everyone just forgot how to make movies.

There are a number of reasons but here is one of the biggest ones to me:

Movie	Production Start	Approved by
Ant Man	Jul-21​	Chapek
Indian Jones	Jun-21​	Chapek
GoTG V3	Nov-21​	Chapek
Little Mermaid	Jan-21​	Chapek
Elemental	N/A*​	Iger
Haunted Mansion	Oct-21​	Chapek
A Haunting in Venice	Oct-22​	Chapek/Iger
The Creator	Jan-22​	Chapek
The Marvels	Aug-21​	Chapek
Next Goal Wins	Nov-19​	Iger
Wish	N/A*	Iger

*Don't have an exact date for these but both were in production pre covid so had to be Iger

How about a couple of D+ examples as well:

Show	Production Start	Approved By
She Hulk	Apr-21​	Chapek
Peter Pan and Wendy	Mar-21​	Chapek
Pinocchio	Mar-21​	Chapek
Ms. Marvel	Nov-20​	Chapek

We don't know about The Marvels, Next Goal Wins or Wish yet but every single bomb you have mentioned this year had it's final approval and production run take place under the system Chapek put in place with only A Haunting in Venice having any real cross over as it didn't finish filming until after Iger came back. So, they basically already did exactly what you wanted, they fired the executive that was responsible for every last one of these bombs.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The 30th anniversary re-release of Hocus Pocus made $1.5 million this weekend.

I think there's still a market for Disney re-releases without having to spend the extra $ for IMAX or 3D conversion.

 

[Disney Irish]

The 30th anniversary re-release of Hocus Pocus made $1.5 million this weekend.

I think there's still a market for Disney re-releases without having to spend the extra $ for IMAX or 3D conversion.

Moana gets a re-release next weekend on a 2 week run for the 100th anniversary. It'll be interesting to see how it performs since its usually in the top 10 on the streaming charts.

 

[TP2000]

Weekend domestic box office data is in for October 6th-8th.

It's not good financial news for the two films from Disney's 20th Century Studios.

The Creator is in fourth place during its second weekend. With its $80 Million budget and its current box office performance and apparent trajectory, The Creator is on track to lose $60-ish Million for Disney.

A Haunting in Venice is now in 6th place in its 4th weekend. With its $60 Million budget and its current box office performance and trajectory, Venice looks to lose $50+ Million for Disney.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

The 30th anniversary re-release of Hocus Pocus made $1.5 million this weekend.

I think there's still a market for Disney re-releases without having to spend the extra $ for IMAX or 3D conversion.

I'm not surprised at Hocus Pocus doing well on re-release. It is a well loved Halloween movie with staying power. The others? I dont' know.

 

[TP2000]

The 30th anniversary re-release of Hocus Pocus made $1.5 million this weekend.

I think there's still a market for Disney re-releases without having to spend the extra $ for IMAX or 3D conversion.

Assuming that the theaters get the same 40% cut of the ticket sales as a regular movie, Hocus Pocus made $924,000 in revenue for Disney this past weekend.

I can't seem to find an end date for this re-release, so perhaps Disney is keeping it in theaters through Halloween?

I wonder how much they spent on marketing and distribution for this re-release? And thus, what is their break even point at the box office for it?

I remember when Disney would re-release most of its old classics in theaters every decade or so. I doubt we'll see a return to that sort of thing, but it seems they could get a decent box office bang for their buck for the most coveted movies in their archives. I just am unsure how much Disney has to spend to re-release something like that. I can't imagine it cost less than the Million or so they've already made this weekend.

Anyone know how that works, or what the box office math is for this sort of re-release?

 

[TP2000]

Global box office is in for The Creator from its second weekend. The movie is not doing well overseas. Here are some stats and data about those foreign box office results, in the article below.

The Creator is now tracking towards a $100 Million global total a few weeks from now, which would mean it will lose between $60 and $70 Million for Disney's 20th Century Studios. On the bright side, it could have been much worse had Disney not kept the budget "comparatively low" at just $80 Million, plus marketing costs.

'The Creator' Struggles to Boot Up at the Global Box Office

Luckily, the original sci-fi feature from 'Rogue One' director Gareth Edwards used groundbreaking methods to keep the film's budget comparatively low.

collider.com

 

[Phroobar]

The Nightmare before Christmas - 30th anniversary comes out Oct 20th.

 

[TP2000]

Ticket pre sales figures are now out for The Marvels.

Currently, The Marvels pre sales are tracking 72% less than Ant-Man Quantumania, and are some of the lowest on record for any Marvel tentpole movie.

The Marvels opens November 10th and had a production budget of $220 Million. Assuming Disney spends $100 Million marketing for The Marvels, it will need a global box office of roughly $650 Million in order to break even. But it's getting off to a very weak start that doesn't seem to forecast anything close to $650 Million globally.

Unleash Your Inner Wordle Word Puzzle Wizard | Xfire

Xfire is your go-to resource for word puzzle enthusiasts, offering the best word lists, tips, and tools to help you solve games like Wordle, Connections, and Scrabble. Improve your skills and enjoy your favorite word puzzles with our in-depth guides, expert advice, and a passionate community of...

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The Marvels Early Box Office Projections Are 72% Worse Than Quantumania

Predictions are bleak for the next MCU team-up.

screenrant.com

Brie Larson's 'The Marvels' Predicted To Have One Of If Not The Worst Box Office Grosses For The Marvel Cinematic Universe Ever

New opening weekend box office projections have been revealed for Marvel Studios' upcoming The Marvels film and it claims the film will make less than box office loser Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and could claim the spot for not just the lowest opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe...

boundingintocomics.com

 

[TP2000]

Thursday box office numbers are in, previewing how this weekend will perform.

Unsurprisingly, Miss Swift will be in charge of the box office this weekend. The Creator falls to 5th place, with A Haunting In Venice in 6th place.

 

[Tha Realest]

Ticket pre sales figures are now out for The Marvels.

Currently, The Marvels pre sales are tracking 72% less than Ant-Man Quantumania, and are some of the lowest on record for any Marvel tentpole movie.

The Marvels opens November 10th and had a production budget of $220 Million. Assuming Disney spends $100 Million marketing for The Marvels, it will need a global box office of roughly $650 Million in order to break even. But it's getting off to a very weak start that doesn't seem to forecast anything close to $650 Million globally.

Unleash Your Inner Wordle Word Puzzle Wizard | Xfire

Xfire is your go-to resource for word puzzle enthusiasts, offering the best word lists, tips, and tools to help you solve games like Wordle, Connections, and Scrabble. Improve your skills and enjoy your favorite word puzzles with our in-depth guides, expert advice, and a passionate community of...

www.xfire.com

The Marvels Early Box Office Projections Are 72% Worse Than Quantumania

Predictions are bleak for the next MCU team-up.

screenrant.com

Brie Larson's 'The Marvels' Predicted To Have One Of If Not The Worst Box Office Grosses For The Marvel Cinematic Universe Ever

New opening weekend box office projections have been revealed for Marvel Studios' upcoming The Marvels film and it claims the film will make less than box office loser Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and could claim the spot for not just the lowest opening weekend in Marvel Cinematic Universe...

boundingintocomics.com

This should come as no surprise. Ms Marvel had the lowest viewership numbers of all the D+ series, and the current MCU phase films seem to be all over the place (tonally and story wise).