Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tony the Tigger]

I would give it another shot. Once you get it, you really get it.

You aren't the only one. Just about all my friends and family thought I was nuts for loving it so much. But like @LittleBuford said, once you get it, you really get it. That's why it's grown into such a classic. It wasn't all that successful when originally released. But as people watched it, it grew to be extraordinarily popular.

I think it loses me too early. I know there’s a point at the end lol but I’m long checked out by then.

The first time I saw it, I think, was my late 20’s/early 30’s. I tried again a few years ago, but meh.

It’s ok. Not every movie resonates with everyone. The magic isn’t gone. The studio isn’t going down. I’m glad for those who appreciate it.

 

[TP2000]

Overseas box office has just been added to this weekend's box office tallies. Here's an update on the two autumn films from Disney's 20th Century Studios; A Haunting In Venice and The Creator.

Using an assumption of a 60%/40% take of the domestic/overseas box office, and assuming Disney's marketing budget for each film was half of their comparatively modest production budgets, here's where these two films stand as they near the end of their theatrical runs.

A Haunting In Venice; $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $26 Overseas = $39 Million Loss
The Creator; $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $22 Domestic, $21 Overseas = $77 Million Loss

A Haunting In Venice may be able to eek out another few million at the global box office in the next two weeks, and The Creator should be able to whittle its global losses down towards $70 Million over the next three weeks. But the trajectory for both of these films are firmly in place after the past month or so in theaters.

Combined, they will lose just over $100 Million for Disney's 20th Century Studios in 2023.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[TP2000]

How much money did Disney earn from streaming Elemental on Disney+???

The box office figures are updated daily and are easy to understand. But what does a Nielsen rating via streaming mean for box office? How do you quantify it? Where can we find those financial figures?

 

[MisterPenguin]

How much money did Disney earn from streaming Elemental on Disney+???

The box office figures are updated daily and are easy to understand. But what does a Nielsen rating via streaming mean for box office? How do you quantify it? Where can we find those financial figures?

Disney picks up ~$771M in revenue every month from subscribers.

I'm sure there's a giant spreadsheet apportioning that income to individual content that gets streamed. And the more minutes streamed, the more that content has attributed to it.

We don't get to see that spreadsheet.

But keep going. Your financial analysis of all things theatrical and streaming is fascinating!

 

[TP2000]

Disney picks up ~$771M in revenue every month from subscribers.

And then loses how much after-tax? Last quarter that loss from Disney+ was $512 Million.

How much will they lose this quarter on Disney+?

Disney Shrinks Streaming Losses to $512M, Ups Cost-Cutting Goal From $5.5B

The company also disclosed a $2.4 billion charge related to removing content from its streaming services.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

But keep going. Your financial analysis of all things theatrical and streaming is fascinating!

I have no "analysis" of this, except for anecdotal evidence of which costumes show up on my front porch on Halloween.

I merely update the hard facts and real-time data that comes in on the box office, for the box office thread.

That's not "analysis". It's data. You may not like it, but you'll need to take that concern to the free market, not me.

 

[DKampy]

And then loses how much after-tax? Last quarter that loss from Disney+ was $512 Million.

How much will they lose this quarter on Disney+?

Disney Shrinks Streaming Losses to $512M, Ups Cost-Cutting Goal From $5.5B

The company also disclosed a $2.4 billion charge related to removing content from its streaming services.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I have no "analysis" of this, except for anecdotal evidence of which costumes show up on my front porch on Halloween.

I can’t wait till I see all those Oppenheimer and Taylor Swift costumes this Saturday(our neighborhoods trick or treat)

 

[Disstevefan1]

I can’t wait till I see all those Oppenheimer and Taylor Swift costumes this Saturday(our neighborhoods trick or treat)

Don't forget Barbie!

 

[Tha Realest]

Disney picks up ~$771M in revenue every month from subscribers.

I'm sure there's a giant spreadsheet apportioning that income to individual content that gets streamed. And the more minutes streamed, the more that content has attributed to it.

We don't get to see that spreadsheet.

But keep going. Your financial analysis of all things theatrical and streaming is fascinating!

Some people are using a service they (still, for now) pay for. But it’ll totally be profitable…after they account for the theatrical losses in the hundreds of millions, the billions they’re losing from the India rights acquisition and sale, and the $9 billion (baseline) they’re going to have to pay for the rest of Hulu.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I have no "analysis" of this, except for anecdotal evidence of which costumes show up on my front porch on Halloween.

Let us know how many Krakens show up!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I hope this is wrong.

‘Captain Marvel' Sequel Could Bring In Half Of Original Amid ‘Superhero Fatigue’—Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Films Of The Genre

“The Marvels” is projected to make just more than half of what "Captain Marvel" made when it first premiered in 2019.

www.forbes.com

 

[flynnibus]

Some people are using a service they (still, for now) pay for. But it’ll totally be profitable…after they account for the theatrical losses in the hundreds of millions, the billions they’re losing from the India rights acquisition and sale, and the $9 billion (baseline) they’re going to have to pay for the rest of Hulu.

Thus is the life of managing a transition in a market as one of the market leaders. It's often bloody and ugly.

The majority of points you raise there are one-time obstacles... that don't really speak to the point about ongoing business models.

How Disney and others quantify success of a project in a DTC streaming is going to be part of the new business - old metrics likely won't apply. But we'll likely see the return of the ad demand metrics for each show.

 

[Indy_UK]

I hope this is wrong.

‘Captain Marvel' Sequel Could Bring In Half Of Original Amid ‘Superhero Fatigue’—Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Films Of The Genre

“The Marvels” is projected to make just more than half of what "Captain Marvel" made when it first premiered in 2019.

www.forbes.com

I don’t think it’s going to do great. Maybe AntMan 3 numbers

I really think a lot of people are done with superhero movies for now

 

[Disney Irish]

Thus is the life of managing a transition in a market as one of the market leaders. It's often bloody and ugly.

The majority of points you raise there are one-time obstacles... that don't really speak to the point about ongoing business models.

How Disney and others quantify success of a project in a DTC streaming is going to be part of the new business - old metrics likely won't apply.

Completely agree, the old days of just relying on just the Box Office to tell whether something was successful is gone.

But we'll likely see the return of the ad demand metrics for each show.

Already started (or will start soon) on most streaming platforms. Heck even YouTube is taking the ad decisions out of the hands of the content creators, even for live streams, and forcing ads on everyone not on Premium starting November 1st.

 

[Tha Realest]

I hope this is wrong.

‘Captain Marvel' Sequel Could Bring In Half Of Original Amid ‘Superhero Fatigue’—Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Films Of The Genre

“The Marvels” is projected to make just more than half of what "Captain Marvel" made when it first premiered in 2019.

www.forbes.com

Likely wrong. I’ll take the under on this range:

The latest addition to the Marvel Cinematic Universe is expected to gross between $75 and $80 million when it makes its box office debut next month, barely half of what its prequel made when it debuted in 2019 and an example of what industry experts have called "superhero fatigue” that has movie-goers pressing pause before racing to the theater for every new film.

 

[TP2000]

I hope this is wrong.

‘Captain Marvel' Sequel Could Bring In Half Of Original Amid ‘Superhero Fatigue’—Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Films Of The Genre

“The Marvels” is projected to make just more than half of what "Captain Marvel" made when it first premiered in 2019.

www.forbes.com

It's certainly something worth watching, and is obviously very concerning for Disney and Marvel Studios.

Because with these current box office forecasts, and with a production budget of $220 Million, The Marvels is set to lose between $100 Million and $200 Million at the global box office.

 

[MisterPenguin]

<thinking about the forecasts for Elemental...>

 

[Tha Realest]

It's certainly something worth watching, and is obviously very concerning for Disney and Marvel Studios.

Because with these current box office forecasts, and with a production budget of $220 Million, The Marvels is set to lose between $100 Million and $200 Million at the global box office.

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I wonder whether it will have a bigger domestic opening than Five Nights at Freddy’s, which had a tenth the production budget ($25M).

 

[TP2000]

I don’t think it’s going to do great. Maybe AntMan 3 numbers

I really think a lot of people are done with superhero movies for now

If The Marvels only does the same global box office as Ant Man 3, then The Marvels will accrue a box office loss of $96 Million.

The problem with that is that currently The Marvels is tracking for an opening weekend 25% less than what Ant Man got in its opening weekend, with a similar 25% less forecast for its total domestic run box office.

If the current forecast holds, and The Marvels has a global box office that is 25% less than Ant Man 3, The Marvels will accrue a box office loss of $153 Million.

To break even at the box office, assuming a $225-ish production budget and a marketing budget of $100 Million, The Marvels will need to make roughly $650 Million at the global box office. The current box office forecasting is nowhere near that.

 

[Tha Realest]

<thinking about the forecasts for Elemental...>

<thinking about the recent pattern of MCU second week drops in the high-60’s>