Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

How many original non-IP/non-sequel movies have made $1B+ in the last decade by any studio? And the last 20 years?

Avatar and Frozen were the last ones in 2009 and 2013 respectively.

Original non-IP/non-sequel movies don't typically make $1B+ by any studio. So that is not unique to Disney.

Add in Zootopia (2016)

 

[Disney Irish]

Add in Zootopia (2016)

Sorry, you're right, it wasn't on the list I was looking at because it cut it off at the top 50.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I don't believe the specifics are known of the PVOD releases during the pandemic, at least not in any detail.

But you're still trying to look for a 1-for-1 to say that streaming/PVOD model with be 100% the same as the theatrical model. Again it doesn't need to be. You don't need a movie to get to $1B+ at home in order for it to be an End Game or Avatar level hit. Once you account for the theater splits a studio isn't taking that entire box office. Yet when you remove the need for a split they get 100% of any revenue generated by a streaming/PVOD release. So in the end they can get more revenue from a 100% streaming/PVOD model than they can from theatrical. This is the reason why studios were so invested in trying to spin up streaming/PVOD during the pandemic. They have set themselves up for an eventual future where theatrical is no longer viable.


How do you convince people now that any theatrical release is "worth it" with so many releases? Its not automatic just because its a theatrical release right, there is marketing that convinces people. Same can be done with any future model with streaming only releases.

If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just an FYI for what its worth.

Fantastic Four will officially cross $400M WW this weekend, and will likely move past Cap4 and possibly Shang-Chi next week. This puts it in the middle of the pack of all post-Endgame/post-pandemic MCU releases, only falling behind sequels with established characters.

So we'll see where it ends up when the final numbers are in, but so far one can see why Disney actually mentioned it as a success during the earnings call.

 

[Disney Irish]

If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.

Its obvious they are still continuing to release theatrically in 2025 because it still makes money, but that won't last forever. Its is known by the industry and what they are preparing for, and even reported on by the trades just recently as being acknowledged by the theater owners themselves.

What we've been discussing is a time when theatrical is no longer viable because the economics no longer make sense. There will come a time when there isn't enough ticket sales to warrant a theatrical model and keep theaters open. Again everyone in the industry knows it and is preparing for it.

Also we are seeing some studios skip theatrical or having a very short limited release, like Netflix, Apple, and Amazon. So yes it is happening now in 2025.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hollywood content creation and distribution needs a radical overhaul. Hollywood content should be distributed primarily via the internet.

The profitable stuff already is

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.

The theater is still an “event” in your daily life…and the psychology of cross selling/project tie ins depends on that to keep people spending their other dollars on you. Benefits are large but can’t be perfectly quantified.

There is some tv/streaming that has crack That dynamic…but you’re talking mostly too of the line in cost or sensation that drives people to it…and that’s driven on social media which a competitor to broadcast and stream.

Do they have to make cheaper movies? Yes…I don’t believe they can do it at all. But it’s sound thinking.

What they really have to do is make movies that people WANT…better movies. Enough of these arthouse directors (who are there because they’re cheap) and their alternative takes. It’s stupid. Dumb on both sides.

Let the people eat cake before they guillotine the studio heads

 

[Phroobar]

How many original non-IP/non-sequel movies have made $1B+ in the last decade by any studio? And the last 20 years?

Avatar and Frozen were the last ones in 2009 and 2013 respectively.

Original non-IP/non-sequel movies don't typically make $1B+ by any studio. So that is not unique to Disney.

Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167

All 53 Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion at the Box Office

‘Barbie’ is a certifiable box office phenom. How high can it rise?

www.mentalfloss.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167

So many adaptations, remakes, known pre-existing characters, and sequels in here.

The only Original films of this entire list is Titanic, Avatar, Frozen, Zootopia. Frozen you could argue also isn’t original because it’s an adaptation of “The Snow Queen”

 

[Disney Irish]

Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167

All 53 Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion at the Box Office

‘Barbie’ is a certifiable box office phenom. How high can it rise?

www.mentalfloss.com

Not true, you can have a wholly original movie that creates an IP, ie its not based on an existing IP, such as Avatar or Zootopia.

All the rest of those are pretty much all established franchises, with mostly sequels and remakes.

 

[Disney Irish]

So many adaptations, remakes, known pre-existing characters, and sequels in here.

The only Original films of this entire list is Titanic, Avatar, Frozen, Zootopia. Frozen you could argue also isn’t original because it’s an adaptation of “The Snow Queen”

In fairness Frozen is actually not original, its based on the Snow Queen by Hans Christian Andersen. (which it appears you edited as was responding).

Also Titanic you could argue is not fully original since its origins comes from a real life event with original elements of the story of Jack and Rose.

 

[Nevermore525]

In fairness Frozen is actually not original, its based on the Snow Queen by Hans Christian Andersen. (which it appears you edited as was responding).

Also Titanic you could argue is not fully original since its origins comes from a real life event with original elements of the story of Jack and Rose.

Agreed on those.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

There’s nothing inherently better about a new IP vs an IP you created two years prior as a new IP and then revisit.

 

[TP2000]

The economy sucks and it's not getting better anytime soon. I see a bunch of movies underperforming over the next year

Did any of those predict Asia was going to go soft on superhero movies in 2025 or that the American economy was going to get worse? No.

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

Caveat…

Disney parks aren’t “strong”…all their “increases” are due to price increases and
Cost cuts…which isn’t a sign of “strength” at all.

Wall Street has kicked that report around like a soccer ball since it dropped. They’re not a fan of either the park data nor D+

 

[BrianLo]

After yesterday’s earnings. For Calendar 2025 Disney Studios % of revenue stream

TV/VOD Distribution: 41% ($1.795B)
Theatrical Distribution : 33% ($1.466B)
Other (Stage Shows, etc): 26% ($1.142B)

Thank you, this is an amazingly helpful nugget I never knew to look for. It would have settled years of debates.

Who knew, the backend IS significant?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Outside of a sequel IP, no.

I’m pretty down on Disney right now but this seems extremely pessimistic even to me, it may take a few years but I’m confident Disney will find gold somewhere again. Disney is a bit of a train wreck at the moment but they still have a ton of talent, I think (hope?) once the leadership team changes and the culture changes from the top down we’ll have another golden age.

 

[BrianLo]

But take your point and flip it, why are more people now watching movies at home instead of going to the theaters? Which is the whole point that we've been talking about this year as the box office is down overall. And there are 3 main factors, 1. Cost, its cheaper to watch at home, 2. can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater, and 3. the ability to pause and not have to miss anything if you get interrupted or need to go to the bathroom.

Pricing and economics. Everyone forgets how aghast we were at Iger, a man who has no fear of consumer pricing, launching D+ to 6.99/month. Instantaneously they devalued their back catalogue to historic levels.

The streaming frontier has massively devalued content and it is still a slow road to recovery. I calculated and I am still all in less in raw dollars today than I was for some bills I looked up in 2012. It was 135CAD for internet and cable (no sports, fairly basic, but we had HBO for GoT). Today I’m about 120 and have unlimited fibre, 4k Netflix, Ad Free Disney+/Star (Hulu), Apple TV+, Crunchyroll and Prime. Let alone inflation.

HBO was 15USD 20 years ago. The streaming economics moving forward will all be price increases and that will slowly make theatrical seem less outright egregious. I don’t think theatrical is going completely extinct. Radio didn’t go extinct. There will be a contraction, consolidation and adjustment. Especially if other studios go under and Netflix continues to ignore it.

Edit - and I should mention my 135$ was after the classic retention call bringing it down from 215.

 

[Nevermore525]

I’m pretty down on Disney right now but this seems extremely pessimistic even to me, it may take a few years but I’m confident Disney will find gold somewhere again. Disney is a bit of a train wreck at the moment but they still have a ton of talent, I think (hope?) once the leadership team changes and the culture changes from the top down we’ll have another golden age.

You can say that while at the same time by the end of this year Disney could have the only 5 films that earn over $1B in the last two years (avatar 3 would be 5 in two years for Disney)

Of the 10 $Billion films post reopening of theaters, Disney directly produced/distributed 5 of them, and has some production with 1 of them (Spider-Man).

So yes, not all of their films are hitting and those can be the sole focus, while at the same time they’ve found their own successes as well.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Just so we can understand, and pin this down for future discussion...

What exact metric are you two using to determine that the "economy" in the Summer of '25 is preventing any mega-budget movie from approaching or surpassing the $1 Billion mark like movies did in the summers of '23 (Barbie) and '24 (Inside Out 2)?

Because every economic metric I know of to look at that might show why Americans are staying away from movies for financial reasons shows a similar or better outlook now than in recent summers. Plus the very strong attendance and profits at Disney's theme parks in the USA this spring into summer, as documented by this week's Disney earnings call.

Q2 Annualized US GDP Growth
2023 = +2.4%
2024 = +3.0%
2025 = +3.0%

July US Unemployment Rate
2023 = 3.5%
2024 = 4.3%
2025 = 4.2%

July US Annualized Inflation Rate
2023 = 3.2%
2024 = 2.9%
2025 = 2.7%

July Average US Price For Gallon Of Gas
2023 = $3.71
2024 = $3.48
2025 = $3.15

What metric are you using to determine that the "economy" is not conducive to blockbuster box office sales in the summer of 2025? Especially compared to the summers of '23 and '24?

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.