Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Really? I think some of these movies are made to appeal to the 50+ demo. Spinal Tap 2 is a sequel to a 1980s movie, Downtown Abbey, and a movie based on Springsteen all skew older. Tron is a continuation in the trilogy that started in the 1980s as well. Then some others like OBAA have wide appeal.

Exactly, this is a pre-AARP lineup in my opinion.

And I say that as someone in that group.

 

[DKampy]

Really? I think some of these movies are made to appeal to the 50+ demo. Spinal Tap 2 is a sequel to a 1980s movie, Downtown Abbey, and a movie based on Springsteen all skew older. Tron is a continuation in the trilogy that started in the 1980s as well. Then some others like OBAA have wide appeal.

agreed…. I see very little there going after a specifically younger generation

 

[Disney Irish]

agreed…. I see very little there going after a specifically younger generation

Black Phone 2, I guess is suppose to be "younger", but even that is skewing slightly older with some of it cast like Ethan Hawke.

 

[networkpro]

Personally I am heartened by the production of the MCU being off-shored away from Georgia production, as well as someone finally getting a clue and canceling the "live action" Aristocats movie. I believe a wave of fiscal sanity is touching the Disney production machine.

 

[Disney Irish]

Personally I am heartened by the production of the MCU being off-shored away from Georgia production, as well as someone finally getting a clue and canceling the "live action" Aristocats movie. I believe a wave of fiscal sanity is touching the Disney production machine.

Careful, don’t let some around here hear you talk about Disney off-shoring movies, you’ll get the “why are you anti-Los Angeles movies” hammer thrown at you.

 

[networkpro]

Careful, don’t let some around here hear you talk about Disney off-shoring movies, you’ll get the “why are you anti-Los Angeles movies” hammer thrown at you.

I'm just not for the cyclitic nature of productions and the transient nature of out of state crews. The state of Georgia has spent an average of 69 million a month 2023-2025 on subsidizing film production. Over the course of this subsidy, its estimated that 4 billion has been dispersed and 4.1 billion of proceeds to the state tax coffers has been returned. That's a ROI of only 2.5% and produces facilities and skillsets that are not applicable to any other industry... a dead end investment of public funds with a marginal return.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm just not for the cyclitic nature of productions and the transient nature of out of state crews. The state of Georgia has spent an average of 69 million a month 2023-2025 on subsidizing film production. Over the course of this subsidy, its estimated that 4 billion has been dispersed and 4.1 billion of proceeds to the state tax coffers has been returned. That's a ROI of only 2.5% and produces facilities and skillsets that are not applicable to any other industry... a dead end investment of public funds with a marginal return.

Understand, but unfortunately its the nature of business, as you're probably aware, no matter the industry.

And I think the idea has been to not have direct proceeds back to the coffers to make a "profit", more specifically to not run a loss from it, but to be a gain to the overall economy of the region, which as I understand it a majority view it as successful.

 

[Agent H]

Well ultimately that is the question that Disney appears to be asking itself if the article is to be believed. And I have no reason to doubt it given some of the demographics we've seen over the last 5ish years that are watching Disney male driven content.

To me I would say the GenZ male demographic is mostly focused on gaming, and to a lesser extent some of the newer franchises (One Piece was mentioned) rather than the older franchises like Star Wars and Marvel. So the idea of trying to find Disney's version of a One Piece or similar franchise that they can aim toward GenZ is probably a good thing.

Okay but I don’t see why Disney needs to ask this question in the first place. I’m not aware of any data that suggests young men find Disneys recent content unappealing.

 

[Disney Irish]

Okay but I don’t see why Disney needs to ask this question in the first place. I’m not aware of any data that suggests young men find Disneys recent content unappealing.

Clearly Disney has data that says otherwise, hence why they are looking into it.

I don't have it readily available but as I recall many of their films over the last couple years have shown a weakness with the male GenZ population compared to say a movie like Minecraft.

So I don't know if I would classify it as "unappealing", more just general lack of interest, so maybe apathy is a better word.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It's precisely because young men and teens chose video games over theatrical films that Disney bought part of Fortnite (the Unreal Engine was a bonus for the film-making divisions).

It's like oil companies are investing in renewable energy. Or TV broadcasters investing in streaming.

They'll always be something to sell when the market changes.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

#1 movie of the weekend will either be Weapons or the sing-along version of K-Pop Demon Hunters (which is only playing Sat/Sun and not at any AMC location)

 

[Disney Irish]

#1 movie of the weekend will either be Weapons or the sing-along version of K-Pop Demon Hunters (which is only playing Sat/Sun and not at any AMC location)

Netflix doesn't traditionally release numbers for their theatrical releases. Friday numbers are pretty much out, and K-Pop isn't on the list, so the expectation is they won't this time either.

So it'll probably end up being Weapons.

 

[Nevermore525]

Netflix doesn't traditionally release numbers for their theatrical releases. Friday numbers are pretty much out, and K-Pop isn't on the list, so the expectation is they won't this time either.

So it'll probably end up being Weapons.

K-Pop is only in theaters today and tomorrow. They didn’t have any Friday showings.

 

[Disney Irish]

K-Pop is only in theaters today and tomorrow. They didn’t have any Friday showings.

Ok, thanks, but the point still stands. Netflix doesn't release their numbers traditionally, so the expectation is they won't this time either.

But who knows maybe they buck the trend this time, I just doubt it.

 

[Nevermore525]

K-pop with a reported $18M Sat/Sun in 1700 screens.

F4 up around $490M globally

 

[Animaniac93-98]

New estimate for Demon Hunters sing-along is $18 million

Impressive for a movies that's been on Netflix for months and is only playing for 2 days

 

[Disney Irish]

For K-Pop Netflix isn’t reporting as expected. These $18M estimates are according to “sources”. So don’t know how accurate they are, but a bunch of kids singing in their seats if true.

 

[TalkingHead]

YTD domestic total is running about 5% ahead of 2024. Guessing these numbers are the new normal, give or take a DC/Marvel flop or breakout.

Wicked will be a huge domestic hit. Zootopia, maybe probably, but also would shock me if it’s as big as Moana 2 was last year domestically. Avatar always does better overseas. Seems like there’s enough sizzle to keep domestic exhibitors from publicly hitting the panic button but behind closed doors I’m not so sure.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Really? I think some of these movies are made to appeal to the 50+ demo. Spinal Tap 2 is a sequel to a 1980s movie, Downtown Abbey, and a movie based on Springsteen all skew older. Tron is a continuation in the trilogy that started in the 1980s as well. Then some others like OBAA have wide appeal.

Good point, which makes me feel the lineup is even weaker, if I AM in the target demographic and my response is “meh” that spells trouble at the box office.

Tron is the only movie on that list that has me tempted to see it in theaters, I have no doubt I’ll watch Spinal Tap 2 on streaming (and probably the Springsteen movie also) but both of those feel like made for TV movies, not theatrical movies.

 

[Disney Irish]

YTD domestic total is running about 5% ahead of 2024. Guessing these numbers are the new normal, give or take a DC/Marvel flop or breakout.

Wicked will be a huge domestic hit. Zootopia, maybe probably, but also would shock me if it’s as big as Moana 2 was last year domestically. Avatar always does better overseas. Seems like there’s enough sizzle to keep domestic exhibitors from publicly hitting the panic button but behind closed doors I’m not so sure.

Its only "ahead" if you're including last years holdovers like Moana 2.

This year is actually behind by almost 2% when you factor only this years releases, from BoxOfficeMojo -

And this makes sense because 2024 had the years only 2 $600M+ movies domestically by this point in Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, while 2025 has had none so far. And unless Wicked 2, Avatar 3, Zootopia 2, or Dune 3 break $600M domestic I don't see it getting any better, and it'll be the first time in nearly a decade (outside of 2020) where a domestic movie hasn't broke $600M.

And yes theater owners are hitting the panic button, its why they agreed to the 2 day Netflix screening of KPop when in years past they would have said no, like AMC did this year.