Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Phroobar]

Anime is growing at a huge rate. My son is huge fan of One Piece.

The global Anime Market size was valued at approximately USD 32.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 69.8 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8.73% from 2024 to 2032

The anime marketplace is a hastily growing worldwide enterprise that spans multiple sectors, including television, movie, manga, merchandise, and streaming systems. Japan remains the hub, but anime's reputation has surged worldwide, with international streaming offerings such as Netflix, Crunchyroll, and Funimation leading the enlargement. The marketplace is driven by means of anime's numerous genres, fascinating storytelling, and unique artwork fashion. Merchandise, including figures, clothing, and add-ons, is a great sales source. The growing demand for each dubbed and subtitled content maintains to enhance anime's international have an impact on and cultural effect.

Anime Market Size, Share & Forecast Report, 2032

The global Anime Market size is anticipated to be worth USD 32.3 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 69.8 billion by 2032 at a 8.73% CAGR.

www.businessresearchinsights.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Has anyone seen Eden yet? This AMC membership is burning a hole in my pocket.

 

[TP2000]

Freakier Friday moved into profitability this weekend, passing its $105M breakeven point on a $42M budget (cheaper than Stitch!, so Burbank does know how to do a movie for inexpensive), currently sitting at $113M WW.

Fantastic Four should move into profitability this next weekend, by passing its $500M breakeven point on a $200M budget, currently sitting at $490M WW.

So whether memorable or not, Burbank is probably doing just fine this summer.

You have to remember to divide by two, I think.

@BrianLo, before I do our big Labor Day Weekend Summer Box Office Wrap Up & Fish Fry next weekend, can you remind us if you also divide the profit by two of a movie that goes beyond the break even point in the Metric system (like Freakier Friday and Lilo & Stitch), or do we just divide it by two if it's a net loss (like Elio, Snow White, Fantastic Four, etc.)?

Even if we don't divide the profit by two, (or maybe we multiply it by two?), the eventual profit from Freakier Friday of around $15 or $20 Million is not going to put a dent in the deficit caused by massive 2025 money losers like Rachel Zegler's Snow White which lost $235 Million Metric, or Elio which lost $112 Million Metric.

The eventual profit of The Fantastic Four of another $25 Million also won't make up for previous Burbank mega-budget bombs earlier this summer and spring. I'll say it for the 80th time, but thank God for Lilo & Stitch and Ridgeback Ranch's financial prudence! That one is gonna help soften the loss of all the other flops and modest break evens from Burbank this year.

 

[BrianLo]

You have to remember to divide by two, I think.

@BrianLo, before I do our big Labor Day Weekend Summer Box Office Wrap Up & Fish Fry next weekend, can you remind us if you also divide the profit by two of a movie that goes beyond the break even point in the Metric system (like Freakier Friday and Lilo & Stitch), or do we just divide it by two if it's a net loss (like Elio, Snow White, Fantastic Four, etc.)?

Yes, the profitable ones as well. Alternatively instead of dividing by two you can upfront reduce towards the 60/40 splits. I just was trying to keep it simple. So divide by two.

And Stitch I’d advocate towards multiplying by 3 instead of 2.5 for every other one. Thereby further bringing down Stitch a tad.

Rude of me I know, but they marketed like a 200M film.

 

[Disney Irish]

You have to remember to divide by two, I think.

@BrianLo, before I do our big Labor Day Weekend Summer Box Office Wrap Up & Fish Fry next weekend, can you remind us if you also divide the profit by two of a movie that goes beyond the break even point in the Metric system (like Freakier Friday and Lilo & Stitch), or do we just divide it by two if it's a net loss (like Elio, Snow White, Fantastic Four, etc.)?

Even if we don't divide the profit by two, (or maybe we multiply it by two?), the eventual profit from Freakier Friday of around $15 or $20 Million is not going to put a dent in the deficit caused by massive 2025 money losers like Rachel Zegler's Snow White which lost $235 Million Metric, or Elio which lost $112 Million Metric.

The eventual profit of The Fantastic Four of another $25 Million also won't make up for previous Burbank mega-budget bombs earlier this summer and spring. I'll say it for the 80th time, but thank God for Lilo & Stitch and Ridgeback Ranch's financial prudence! That one is gonna help soften the loss of all the other flops and modest break evens from Burbank this year.

The point was that both moved (or will be moving shortly) into profitability. The dividing by two gets into the nuance of "how much profit", which really isn't all that interesting honestly unless you're looking deep into the financials, which we never really do here.

Also not sure why you assume these two movies have to offset any loss for the entire year when we still have at least one huge movie in Avatar 3 coming, that should account for a majority of those losses. Not to mention whatever Zootopia 2 brings which should also be in the "large" range.

So all-in-all I still suspect Disney will be in the black by the end of the year, the how much doesn't really matter does it?

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The point was that both moved (or will be moving shortly) into profitability. The dividing by two gets into the nuance of "how much profit", which really isn't all that interesting honestly unless you're looking deep into the financials, which we never really do here.

Also not sure why you assume these two movies have to offset any loss for the entire year when we still have at least one huge movie in Avatar 3 coming, that should account for a majority of those losses. Not to mention whatever Zootopia 2 brings which should also be in the "large" range.

So all-in-all I still suspect Disney will be in the black by the end of the year, the how much doesn't really matter does it?

And Tron: Ares too.

Don’t forget that one.

Also, Predator: Badlands as well.

 

[Disney Irish]

And Tron: Ares too.

Don’t forget that one.

Also, Predator: Badlands as well.

I’m not forgetting them, I’m just not assuming they will be huge earners at the box office.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Wasn’t paying attention. So wait.. F4’s legs have improved?!

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Wasn’t paying attention. So wait.. F4’s legs have improved?!

DUH.

 

[DKampy]

I’m not forgetting them, I’m just not assuming they will be huge earners at the box office.

I don’t know why Disney keeps trying with Tron….I am not sure if there is much of an audience beyond cult status with some….Predator Badlands I am more curious about….I can see it going either direction…the director is Dan Tratchenburg….the same person behind Prey… which was a streaming success story during the pandemic….also Predator: Killer of Killers got a decent pop earlier this year

 

[coffeefan]

 

[Disney Irish]

Hmm, something tells me Netflix isn't changing their release strategy anytime soon....

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t know why Disney keeps trying with Tron….I am not sure if there is much of an audience beyond cult status with some….Predator Badlands I am more curious about….I can see it going either direction…the director is Dan Tratchenburg….the same person behind Prey… which was a streaming success story during the pandemic….also Predator: Killer of Killers got a decent pop earlier this year

Tron has proven itself in my opinion, from the Legacy to Uprising, it has an audience. The only question is will it be enough to drive it to go beyond Ares, ie make enough money to warrant any further installments. That remains to be seen. But with a general consensus rumored ~$200M budget it may be possible (I've seen other rumors about a $250M budget but you know how that goes), but we'll have to see when the final budget numbers are released by the trades.

Badlands may end up being a sleeper hit, I'm just not sure yet how much of one. It won't get to $1B, but could do over $500M which would be good compared to its reported $100M budget.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The previous Tron movie made $400 million worldwide.

The name recognition alone should be good for a decent showing.

I don't know if the brand is popular enough to grow the audience or deliver a huge hit, but the name means Disney can actually afford to risk making a big budget sci-fi movie.

 

[coffeefan]

Hmm, something tells me Netflix isn't changing their release strategy anytime soon....

Nope. If Netflix did their movies would be compared to movies from other studios more. And Netflix movies are more quantity over quality. It could hurt the brand and their bottom line more than help it.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[Disney Irish]

Shows how except for Barbie WB has been behind Disney and Uni for a long long time.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The previous Tron movie made $400 million worldwide.

The name recognition alone should be good for a decent showing.

I don't know if the brand is popular enough to grow the audience or deliver a huge hit, but the name means Disney can actually afford to risk making a big budget sci-fi movie.

I think the budget (est. 200-250 million), paired with the brand, and with Jared Leto, has doomed this into flop territory.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Shows how except for Barbie WB has been behind Disney and Uni for a long long time.

And they may be behind them again once Disney drops Tron 3 and Zootopia 2 in the coming months, not counting the Fox releases (Predator and Avatar), plus the Hamilton concert movie and 30th Anniversary of Toy Story in theaters too.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I don’t know why Disney keeps trying with Tron….I am not sure if there is much of an audience beyond cult status with some….Predator Badlands I am more curious about….I can see it going either direction…the director is Dan Tratchenburg….the same person behind Prey… which was a streaming success story during the pandemic….also Predator: Killer of Killers got a decent pop earlier this year

My personal theory is Disney desperately wants to use Tron for the DL Tomorrowland redesign, they shoehorned it into MK but I think they have bigger plans for it at DL, they just need one of the movies to connect so they can justify it.

That or someone (with pull) is simply a big fan and doesn’t care if it makes money or not, they just like the movies.

So all-in-all I still suspect Disney will be in the black by the end of the year, the how much doesn't really matter does it?

I think Disney will have mixed feelings on this year, a few big movies underperformed, a few small movies overperformed, if Zootopia and Avatar do as expected Disney should have a solidly profitable year, short of those 2 somehow flopping I can’t envision Disney not being in the black this year. Maybe not the huge year they had hoped for but a profits a profit and the studios live to fight another day.