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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
Obviously we're at least a few years, most likely a decade or two, away from having to find out.

I just point back to what I said before, remember what happened just 5 years ago. Studios were looking at a potential world without theaters due to the pandemic. So they were looking at ways to still have the theatrical model at home via PVOD and streaming. Remember Premier Access on D+ where Black Widow and Mulan were offered for a price? So yeah they obviously have ways to still make money at home if theatrical goes away completely. Now will you get to $1B or more in that model, maybe not. But with not having to split with theaters you don't need to. You can still make a $200M movie and charge for it in a PVOD model. All you need is 8M households spending $25 for it and you recoup your $200M cost, any more and that is profit. Or lower the price point and just get more households to buy it. I mean compare that to the 28.4M tickets sold for Superman so far for example just to get to approximately the same return.

Its a win/win for everyone, studios get to recoup their costs and get to profit faster due to not having to split with theaters and consumers get a cheaper option and can watch more new run movies at home for the same prices they are paying now for just watching one in a theater.
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Do we know how any of the PVOD releases during covid performed? Wonder Woman was a big run as I recall. Did the revenue make up for the loss of theatrical?

It's not a perfect benchmark as there was pent-up demand for new material at that time.

The trouble with the notion of home viewing replacing theater viewing is there's a lot of crossover. Marvel fans are seeing Endgame in the theater AND buying a copy. It's not necessarily a one to one scenario of PVOD purchases replacing theater tickets.

This is demonstrated by the fact that historically, the better a movie does theatrically the better it does at home.

And again, how do you convince people that a straight-to-streaming Superman movie is worth it as a premium release, when there's so much content out there?
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Wendy Pleakley said:
Do we know how any of the PVOD releases during covid performed? Wonder Woman was a big run as I recall. Did the revenue make up for the loss of theatrical?

It's not a perfect benchmark as there was pent-up demand for new material at that time.

The trouble with the notion of home viewing replacing theater viewing is there's a lot of crossover. Marvel fans are seeing Endgame in the theater AND buying a copy. It's not necessarily a one to one scenario of PVOD purchases replacing theater tickets.

This is demonstrated by the fact that historically, the better a movie does theatrically the better it does at home.
Click to expand...
I don't believe the specifics are known of the PVOD releases during the pandemic, at least not in any detail.

But you're still trying to look for a 1-for-1 to say that streaming/PVOD model with be 100% the same as the theatrical model. Again it doesn't need to be. You don't need a movie to get to $1B+ at home in order for it to be an End Game or Avatar level hit. Once you account for the theater splits a studio isn't taking that entire box office. Yet when you remove the need for a split they get 100% of any revenue generated by a streaming/PVOD release. So in the end they can get more revenue from a 100% streaming/PVOD model than they can from theatrical. This is the reason why studios were so invested in trying to spin up streaming/PVOD during the pandemic. They have set themselves up for an eventual future where theatrical is no longer viable.

Wendy Pleakley said:
And again, how do you convince people that a straight-to-streaming Superman movie is worth it as a premium release, when there's so much content out there?
Click to expand...
How do you convince people now that any theatrical release is "worth it" with so many releases? Its not automatic just because its a theatrical release right, there is marketing that convinces people. Same can be done with any future model with streaming only releases.
 
Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
I don't believe the specifics are known of the PVOD releases during the pandemic, at least not in any detail.

But you're still trying to look for a 1-for-1 to say that streaming/PVOD model with be 100% the same as the theatrical model. Again it doesn't need to be. You don't need a movie to get to $1B+ at home in order for it to be an End Game or Avatar level hit. Once you account for the theater splits a studio isn't taking that entire box office. Yet when you remove the need for a split they get 100% of any revenue generated by a streaming/PVOD release. So in the end they can get more revenue from a 100% streaming/PVOD model than they can from theatrical. This is the reason why studios were so invested in trying to spin up streaming/PVOD during the pandemic. They have set themselves up for an eventual future where theatrical is no longer viable.


How do you convince people now that any theatrical release is "worth it" with so many releases? Its not automatic just because its a theatrical release right, there is marketing that convinces people. Same can be done with any future model with streaming only releases.
Click to expand...

If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Just an FYI for what its worth.

Fantastic Four will officially cross $400M WW this weekend, and will likely move past Cap4 and possibly Shang-Chi next week. This puts it in the middle of the pack of all post-Endgame/post-pandemic MCU releases, only falling behind sequels with established characters.

So we'll see where it ends up when the final numbers are in, but so far one can see why Disney actually mentioned it as a success during the earnings call.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Wendy Pleakley said:
If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.
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Its obvious they are still continuing to release theatrically in 2025 because it still makes money, but that won't last forever. Its is known by the industry and what they are preparing for, and even reported on by the trades just recently as being acknowledged by the theater owners themselves.

What we've been discussing is a time when theatrical is no longer viable because the economics no longer make sense. There will come a time when there isn't enough ticket sales to warrant a theatrical model and keep theaters open. Again everyone in the industry knows it and is preparing for it.

Also we are seeing some studios skip theatrical or having a very short limited release, like Netflix, Apple, and Amazon. So yes it is happening now in 2025.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Wendy Pleakley said:
If that's the case what's stopping a studio from eliminating theatrical right now? It's still a thing for a reason.

I think they just want to maximize revenue, which means theatrical AND streaming. Disney+ seems to be an obvious benefit compared to licensing movies to Netflix. I don't see why they'd want to give up theatrical at the same time.
Click to expand...
The theater is still an “event” in your daily life…and the psychology of cross selling/project tie ins depends on that to keep people spending their other dollars on you. Benefits are large but can’t be perfectly quantified.

There is some tv/streaming that has crack That dynamic…but you’re talking mostly too of the line in cost or sensation that drives people to it…and that’s driven on social media which a competitor to broadcast and stream.

Do they have to make cheaper movies? Yes…I don’t believe they can do it at all. But it’s sound thinking.

What they really have to do is make movies that people WANT…better movies. Enough of these arthouse directors (who are there because they’re cheap) and their alternative takes. It’s stupid. Dumb on both sides.

Let the people eat cake before they guillotine the studio heads
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Disney Irish said:
How many original non-IP/non-sequel movies have made $1B+ in the last decade by any studio? And the last 20 years?

Avatar and Frozen were the last ones in 2009 and 2013 respectively.

Original non-IP/non-sequel movies don't typically make $1B+ by any studio. So that is not unique to Disney.
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Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167

www.mentalfloss.com

All 53 Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion at the Box Office

‘Barbie’ is a certifiable box office phenom. How high can it rise?
www.mentalfloss.com www.mentalfloss.com
 
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N

Nevermore525

Well-Known Member
Phroobar said:
Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167
Click to expand...
So many adaptations, remakes, known pre-existing characters, and sequels in here.

The only Original films of this entire list is Titanic, Avatar, Frozen, Zootopia. Frozen you could argue also isn’t original because it’s an adaptation of “The Snow Queen”
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Phroobar said:
Every movie is an IP. There is no such thing as an non-IP. I took out the obvious sequels. The rest are stand that stand alone. I took out Avengers Infinity war and Endgame since they are part 1&2 of each other.

Avatar (2009) // $2,923,706,026
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) // $2,320,250,281
Titanic (1997) // $2,264,743,305
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) // $1,921,847,111
Jurassic World (2015) // $1,671,537,444
The Lion King (2019) // $1,663,075,401
The Avengers (2012) // $1,520,538,536
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) // $1,405,018,048
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) // $1,352,756,895
Black Panther (2018) // $1,349,926,083
Frozen (2013) // $1,284,540,518
Beauty and the Beast (2017) // $1,266,115,964
Minions (2015) // $1,159,444,662
Captain America: Civil War (2016) // $1,155,046,416
Aquaman (2018) // $1,148,528,393
Skyfall (2012) // $1,142,471,295
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) // $1,131,927,996
Captain Marvel (2019) // $1,131,416,446
Jurassic Park (1993) // $1,109,802,321
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) // $1,081,169,825
Joker (2019) // $1,074,458,282
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016) // $1,058,682,142
Aladdin (2019) // $1,054,304,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) // $1,046,721,266
Barbie (2023) // $1,031,481,000
Zootopia (2016) // $1,025,521,689
Alice in Wonderland (2010) // $1,025,468,216
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) // $1,023,842,938
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) // $1,017,030,651
The Dark Knight (2008) // $1,006,234,167

www.mentalfloss.com

All 53 Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion at the Box Office

‘Barbie’ is a certifiable box office phenom. How high can it rise?
www.mentalfloss.com www.mentalfloss.com
Click to expand...
Not true, you can have a wholly original movie that creates an IP, ie its not based on an existing IP, such as Avatar or Zootopia.

All the rest of those are pretty much all established franchises, with mostly sequels and remakes.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Nevermore525 said:
So many adaptations, remakes, known pre-existing characters, and sequels in here.

The only Original films of this entire list is Titanic, Avatar, Frozen, Zootopia. Frozen you could argue also isn’t original because it’s an adaptation of “The Snow Queen”
Click to expand...
In fairness Frozen is actually not original, its based on the Snow Queen by Hans Christian Andersen. (which it appears you edited as was responding).

Also Titanic you could argue is not fully original since its origins comes from a real life event with original elements of the story of Jack and Rose.
 
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