Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Dranth]

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

Won't happen.

You forgot the one thing studios still have on their side, sound mixing!

10 years from now the ONLY way you will be able to understand any dialog in a movie is to see it in a theater, so they aren't going anywhere.

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess I'm having a hard time pinpointing what your actual prediction is. As elsewhere you have said:


Which, to me, implies you think it pretty much all shuts down completely. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "niche" market.

You're more than two decades younger than me, if the age on your profile is accurate. I've seen technological changes completely upend industries during my life, on this topic video stores being a great example. And so if you ask me if I can see a world where theatrical goes away completely, the answer is yes.

That doesn't mean I can't also think that theaters can't have a place in a niche market. I've said elsewhere that I think theaters will become similar to the golden age of Hollywood, where it was more of an "event" where you go once or twice a year. Heck we're almost to that point now. Where theaters move to offer more amenities like food and drink service right to the seat, you're starting to see that now with a few theater chains. And where its ends up being more of a luxury item that the more wealthy go to versus the average person who ends up skipping it, again we're starting to see that now.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, we've got another movie from Burbank and preview box office is in for it.... Freakier Friday!

Did anyone request this sequel? It's got a very modest budget of just $42 Million, so I'm betting the snack table in that Burbank soundstage was looking rather bleak throughout its production. It will need around $120 Million globally to break even. Box Office Pro has it pegged for a $35 to $45 Million opening weekend haul. It did $3 Million in previews yesterday. Hmm....

Weekend Preview: FREAKIER FRIDAY Looking to Win the Weekend

The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 8 – 10, 2025 Week 32 | August 8 – 10, 2025 1. Freakier FridayWalt Disney Pictures | NEWOpening Weekend Range: $35M – $45MShowtime Marketshare: 16% Pros Cons 2. WeaponsWarner Bros. | NEWOpening Weekend Range...

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I guess that is the ultimate question that we will get the answer to in time.

And maybe it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy that studios made for themselves. But eventually I think it'll happen.

Heck maybe we get an Oasis type device and that takes over as the main form of entertainment.

New technology beyond larger TV screens is one thing that hasn't been brought up here I think.

VR headsets can now let one watch a movie on a theater sized screen at home. Apple's Vision Pro plays movies in 4K and 3D. It's an expensive niche product for now, but the technology is impressive. The Meta Quest can be used to watch movies as well, in mere HD quality but at 1/7 the price point or so.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gas prices are not a reliable indicator. And the lowest gas prices have been in modern history was during the pandemic, when the economy was hardly booming.

The underlying trends ain’t good…on many layers/levels

That’s with the king of “economical denial” at the wheel.

We might be living on a river in Egypt here

Time will tell

 

[Disney Irish]

New technology beyond larger TV screens is one thing that hasn't been brought up here I think.

VR headsets can now let one watch a movie on a theater sized screen at home. Apple's Vision Pro plays movies in 4K and 3D. It's an expensive niche product for now, but the technology is impressive. The Meta Quest can be used to watch movies as well, in mere HD quality but at 1/7 the price point or so.

Yeah, I have no doubt that another technological advancement will happen in the next decade or two in terms of viewing experience. Whether virtual viewing or a physical screen will be interesting to see.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[easyrowrdw]

Thank you, this is an amazingly helpful nugget I never knew to look for. It would have settled years of debates.

Who knew, the backend IS significant?

I wonder how much of that is cable. I always heard that was huge for a long time but times are different. I’m also curious how the percentages have changed over the years. Although I think their categories have changed over the years too so maybe those comparisons aren’t really possible

 

[Nevermore525]

I wonder how much of that is cable. I always heard that was huge for a long time but times are different. I’m also curious how the percentages have changed over the years. Although I think their categories have changed over the years too so maybe those comparisons aren’t really possible

This current fiscal year is when they combined TV/VOD and Home Entertainment. Whole decline of Physical Media sales and rise of digital consumption

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tv…cable…accounted for almost 60% of all Disneys revenue not that long ago…
And it was more profitable because it was the prime ad space and they could charge a fortune for it.

It wasn’t gonna last…obviously…but they’re trying to replicate the same model with streaming and it will never work. Dynamics are way different.

It’s why they began to overtax their parks and resorts…in particular.

 

[Nevermore525]

This current fiscal year is when they combined TV/VOD and Home Entertainment. Whole decline of Physical Media sales and rise of digital consumption

Haven’t taken the time to go back further but for the following Calendar Years:

2018: TV/SVOD - 44.4%
Theatrical - 37.4%
Home Entertainment - 18.2%

2019: TV/SVOD - 40%
Theatrical - 45%
Home Entertainment - 15%

2020: TV/SVOD - 70%
Theatrical - 10%
Home Entertainment- 20%

2021: TV/SVOD - 64%
Theatrical - 21%
Home Entertainment - 15%

2022: TV/SVOD - 52%
Theatrical - 38%
Home Entertainment - 10%

2023: TV/SVOD - 38%
Theatrical - 46%
Home Entertainment - 16%

2024: TV/SVOD and Home Entertainment (got combined for the last quarter of 2024) - 55%
Theatrical - 45%

 

[BrianLo]

Okay gang, we've got another movie from Burbank and preview box office is in for it.... Freakier Friday!

Did anyone request this sequel? It's got a very modest budget of just $42 Million, so I'm betting the snack table in that Burbank soundstage was looking rather bleak throughout its production. It will need around $120 Million globally to break even. Box Office Pro has it pegged for a $35 to $45 Million opening weekend haul. It did $3 Million in previews yesterday. Hmm....

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Weekend Preview: FREAKIER FRIDAY Looking to Win the Weekend

The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 8 – 10, 2025 Week 32 | August 8 – 10, 2025 1. Freakier FridayWalt Disney Pictures | NEWOpening Weekend Range: $35M – $45MShowtime Marketshare: 16% Pros Cons 2. WeaponsWarner Bros. | NEWOpening Weekend Range...

www.boxofficepro.com

‘Weapons’ Rises To $43M+ Opening, Still Freaking Out ‘Freakier Friday’: How New Line & Warner Bros Pulled It Off – Box Office Update

New Line's 'Weapons' is off to an excellent start at the box office, with previews coming in at $5M+, while Disney sequel 'Freakier Friday' is eyeing $3M.

deadline.com

Deadline is pegging a 30M domestic with a 12M Friday. I actually think that’s great all things said? The domestic haul will get this one easily over the finish line and it’s a streaming play anyways.

Don’t ask me the international appeal. It could be a single or strong double digit and I will nod along.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…guess what else is looking like a $20 million dollar weekend too?…which is akin to flatline.

That “uncomfortable” conversation is coming soon to a thread near you…I hope it goes better this time

 

[BlindChow]

What are you talking about? Have you completely forgotten about video rental stores?

The claim that theatrical was ever cheaper for a family of four than home viewing is bizarre (at least for the past 40+ years).

Too bad we can't post a mid-thread poll. I bet there would be only one person who would vote that going to the theater was cheaper

 

[Animaniac93-98]

‘Weapons’ Rises To $43M+ Opening, Still Freaking Out ‘Freakier Friday’: How New Line & Warner Bros Pulled It Off – Box Office Update

New Line's 'Weapons' is off to an excellent start at the box office, with previews coming in at $5M+, while Disney sequel 'Freakier Friday' is eyeing $3M.

deadline.com

Deadline is pegging a 30M domestic with a 12M Friday. I actually think that’s great all things said?

A $30 million opening for a $45 million movie is undeniably good.

The movie will also likely hold well in the coming weeks thanks to mostly positive word of mouth and not really any direct competition.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Fantastic Four having a 3rd weekend between $16-$18 million. Another not-so-good hold if it does drop 56%.

It continues to pace well behind Man of Steel which made $248 million after 17 days of release ($291 million total)

 

[CoastalElite64]

Weapons is doing really well too. I'm happy for Julia Gardner. She was a standout on Fantastic Four also.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weapons is doing really well too. I'm happy for Julia Gardner. She was a standout on Fantastic Four also.

I'm really curious to see how Weapons holds in the coming weeks

Does it overperform because of high praise, or will it be fall hard like most horror movies do after opening weekend?

 

[Disney Irish]

The claim that theatrical was ever cheaper for a family of four than home viewing is bizarre (at least for the past 40+ years).

Too bad we can't post a mid-thread poll. I bet there would be only one person who would vote that going to the theater was cheaper

So when I was a kid there were theaters where you could go watch movies for $0.50, and later it went up to $1. I could go on a Saturday afternoon and see a bunch of movies for the same cost as a video rental at the time. So yeah it was cheaper.

Obviously everyone’s area and situation are different but on average going to the theater used to be a cheap form of entertainment, not so much anymore. Budget theaters don’t really exist any more, we even had a poster suggest to bring them back as a way to save theatrical.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I'm not a fan of unnecessary sequels or remakes, but Freakier Friday is the kind of mid budget Disney proper title (not Searchlight or another brand) that I think the company needs to make more of

It's success should justify something other than tentpoles for Disney.

Or more theatrical releases for movies that might otherwise go straight to streaming