Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I have a tough time seeing Theaters going the way of the dodo…. Studios need theatrical to prop up their streaming services…the data is in…. Movies have a bigger pop on VOD if they hit cinemas first…. It is why you saw a bunch of movies of higher quality switch from streaming to theatrical…. While a lot of movies that are created for streaming have that straight to DVD quality… some fiilms are clearly even using theaters as an advertising method… such as Companions which was critically praised and built a ton of buzz… only to be released to VOD a couple of weeks later

Remember it was just 5 years ago where we all were having this same discussion as the pandemic looked to really shutdown theaters forever. So just because something doesn't seem possible doesn't mean its not.

So yes for now it seems that theatrical props up streaming/PVOD, but for how long? As the saying goes nothing lasts forever. And its clear that theater owners themselves are worried about it, and studios are planning for it. So this idea that it "can't happen" is more wishful thinking than anything.

So for this isn't not an "if" its more of a "when" type of situation. Will it be, 10, 15, 20, 50 years down the line, who knows but I can almost with 99% certainty guarantee theatrical will go away eventually. The technologist in me knows it'll happen. And so far with these type of predictions I've been batting almost 1000. Its why I was able to predict the D+ stuff with fairly reliable accuracy, including the merging and shutting down of Hulu as a standalone app which was just announced today.

So some can say it won't happen, fine by me. But time is not on our side here. As every year the box office on average is getting worse and it doesn't look to be getting better. But hey maybe 2026 will be the year it all comes back.

 

[Agent H]

The idea that Disney is going to shutdown Marvel after Secret Wars in 2027 is not only silly, its downright insulting.

It ain't happening, so don't even know why you even put it out there.

I suspect if they don't immediately go to the next thing (Mutants) in 2028/2029 they'd do a "pause" like they did with Star Wars. But they won't stop it completely, not happening. Just like they didn't fully stop with Star Wars, they won't with Marvel either.

If they stop making marvel movies in any way shape or form I’ll eat my fedora.

 

[JackCH]

Remember it was just 5 years ago where we all were having this same discussion as the pandemic looked to really shutdown theaters forever. So just because something doesn't seem possible doesn't mean its not.

So yes for now it seems that theatrical props up streaming/PVOD, but for how long? As the saying goes nothing lasts forever. And its clear that theater owners themselves are worried about it, and studios are planning for it. So this idea that it "can't happen" is more wishful thinking than anything.

So for this isn't not an "if" its more of a "when" type of situation. Will it be, 10, 15, 20, 50 years down the line, who knows but I can almost with 99% certainty guarantee theatrical will go away eventually. The technologist in me knows it'll happen. And so far with these type of predictions I've been batting almost 1000. Its why I was able to predict the D+ stuff with fairly reliable accuracy, including the merging and shutting down of Hulu as a standalone app which was just announced today.

So some can say it won't happen, fine by me. But time is not on our side here. As every year the box office on average is getting worse and it doesn't look to be getting better. But hey maybe 2026 will be the year it all comes back.

I think some of what you say is true, however I think it more likely theatrical pivots rather than goes away. Of course if it’s 50 years from now it could be gone, but that’s not really much of a prediction. Literally anything could feasibly happen in that amount of time. If I was a betting person I would almost for sure think theaters will still be here 10 years from now. Beyond that, I’m not sure how much we can reliably prognosticate. Too many moving factors.

Why do people go to movies instead of just watch from home? I’d argue three main factors: 1) see films that excite them and aren’t out on home video yet, 2) get the high quality movie experience, and 3) as a social outing. (1) and (2) could certainly change over time, but a lot people still love going to movies together, so that market is likely still to exist in some form for the foreseeable future.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think some of what you say is true, however I think it more likely theatrical pivots rather than goes away. Of course if it’s 50 years from now it could be gone, but that’s not really a prediction. Literally anything “can” happen in that amount of time. If I was a betting person I would almost for sure think theaters will still be here 10 years from now. Beyond that, I’m not sure how much we can reliably prognosticate. Too many moving factors.

Why do people go to movies instead of just watch from home? I’d argue three main factors: 1) see films that excite them and aren’t out on home video yet, 2) get the high quality movie experience, and 3) as a social outing. (1) and (2) could certainly change over time, but a lot people still love going to movies together, so that market is likely still to exist in some form for the foreseeable future.

Sure anything "can" happen. And I'm not saying that theatrical will go away next year, but in the next 15-20 yeah I can see it.

But take your point and flip it, why are more people now watching movies at home instead of going to the theaters? Which is the whole point that we've been talking about this year as the box office is down overall. And there are 3 main factors, 1. Cost, its cheaper to watch at home, 2. can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater, and 3. the ability to pause and not have to miss anything if you get interrupted or need to go to the bathroom.

 

[JackCH]

Sure anything "can" happen. And I'm not saying that theatrical will go away next year, but in the next 15-20 yeah I can see it.

But take your point and flip it, why are more people now watching movies at home instead of going to the theaters? Which is the whole point that we've been talking about this year as the box office is down overall. And there are 3 main factors, 1. Cost, its cheaper to watch at home, 2. can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater, and 3. the ability to pause and not have to miss anything if you get interrupted or need to go to the bathroom.

Fair enough and you make good points. For me it is the third reason (movies as a social outing) that leads me to think it’ll exist in some form for a while. For a lot of people in a lot of places it is one of the few really enjoyable indoor outings. But you are right even that can change for sure and it is already not as popular as it used to be!

 

[Disney Irish]

Fair enough and you make good points. For me it is the third reason (movies as a social outing) that leads me to think it’ll exist in some form for a while. For a lot of people in a lot of places it is one of the few really enjoyable indoor outings. But you are right even that can change for sure and it is already not as popular as it used to be!

Sure and I see that social aspect, but instead of going to a theater you can just go to someone’s house and get the same thing. So really other than it being a “location” to go to there is becoming less and less of a reason for theaters other than the current box office revenue. And as we’ve been discussing that revenue is starting to dwindle.

So yeah I just don’t see it being long for this world in another decade or two.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Yep, Russo brothers will make FF cool like they did Thor and others.

 

[Ayla]

Sure anything "can" happen. And I'm not saying that theatrical will go away next year, but in the next 15-20 yeah I can see it.

But take your point and flip it, why are more people now watching movies at home instead of going to the theaters? Which is the whole point that we've been talking about this year as the box office is down overall. And there are 3 main factors, 1. Cost, its cheaper to watch at home, 2. can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater, and 3. the ability to pause and not have to miss anything if you get interrupted or need to go to the bathroom.

4) Because the general public are morons who have no manners.

 

[DKampy]

Remember it was just 5 years ago where we all were having this same discussion as the pandemic looked to really shutdown theaters forever. So just because something doesn't seem possible doesn't mean its not.

So yes for now it seems that theatrical props up streaming/PVOD, but for how long? As the saying goes nothing lasts forever. And its clear that theater owners themselves are worried about it, and studios are planning for it. So this idea that it "can't happen" is more wishful thinking than anything.

So for this isn't not an "if" its more of a "when" type of situation. Will it be, 10, 15, 20, 50 years down the line, who knows but I can almost with 99% certainty guarantee theatrical will go away eventually. The technologist in me knows it'll happen. And so far with these type of predictions I've been batting almost 1000. Its why I was able to predict the D+ stuff with fairly reliable accuracy, including the merging and shutting down of Hulu as a standalone app which was just announced today.

So some can say it won't happen, fine by me. But time is not on our side here. As every year the box office on average is getting worse and it doesn't look to be getting better. But hey maybe 2026 will be the year it all comes back.

Well if studios lose theaters….either the price of movie tickets will be nothing compared to the cost of streaming/PVOD…or the quality will drop…. most studios have cut back on the production costs on their streaming content…. Which tells me streaming has not proven to be the cash cow many thought it would be

As someone who has every major streaming service since I cut the cord… the streamer I watch the least is Netflix…The one streaming service that does not rely on theaters…. They Probably have about 1 item that breaks through the mainstream a year and most films are generally awful

 

[Disney Irish]

Well if studios lose theaters….either the price of movie tickets will be nothing compared to the cost of streaming/PVOD…or the quality will drop…. most studios have cut back on the production costs on their streaming content…. Which tells me streaming has not proven to be the cash cow many thought it would be

Or they choose to focus their money on the current model which is still theatrical rather than to split it on both streaming and theatrical releases. But as theatrical dries up you will see a return to the focus on streaming content. This is exactly what happened in the early days of the pandemic, studios started to gear up toward streaming only because it was unknown if theatrical would survive. The same will happen again if theatrical does start to go away in the future. Its not like Hollywood will just stop making movies just because theatrical ends, that I would imagine would be a collapse of Western Civilization if that ever happened.

So yes if streaming/PVOD becomes the main distribution model you can for sure expect prices to change to reflect that. You can sort of already see that with the recent price increases in all streaming services.

As someone who has every major streaming service since I cut the cord… the streamer I watch the least is Netflix…The one streaming service that does not rely on theaters…. They Probably have about 1 item that breaks through the mainstream a year and most films are generally awful

And I'm not saying that a majority of current streaming content isn't of lower quality, but that won't be the case forever. If streaming/PVOD becomes the main distribution model you can for sure bet that the quality will rise. But also its not like streamers don't have content that is of quality, Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and even Apple all have streaming exclusives that have been quality content.

 

[Disgruntled Walt]

It's a shame about FF. I really enjoyed the film and hoped it would be successful. It does deserve it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

And in other news, other movies are opening this week -

‘Freakier Friday’ Review: Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis Reunite for a Sequel That Kicks Up the Body-Swap Complications but Not the Comedy

Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis reunite for a juggling-balls-in-the-air Disney romp that kicks up the body-swap complications but not the comedy.

variety.com

This is one of the few films that I have such an affinity for the original version, I never saw the remake, so I wouldn’t see the sequel. I don’t want to taint the Jodie Foster version in any way.

can get almost the same quality at home as you can at the theater

only to a point. Barely anyone has giant screens, they might have large screens, but not giant. Even those who have very large screens are not a huge percentage.

Home is fine to just “watch a movie.“ I don’t think it compares to going to the movies.

 

[Disney Irish]

This is one of the few films that I have such an affinity for the original version, I never saw the remake, so I wouldn’t see the sequel. I don’t want to taint the Jodie Foster version in any way.

only to a point. Barely anyone has giant screens, they might have large screens, but not giant. Even those who have very large screens are not a huge percentage.

Home is fine to just “watch a movie.“ I don’t think it compares to going to the movies.

Can’t go wrong with the classics Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris version.

Obviously enough people think it compares enough to skip going to the theater and watch them at home. So yeah it’s not 1:1 but many home set ups can rival the theater experience in terms of sound and picture quality even if the physical screen size is smaller.

 

[BlindChow]

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services.

Another thing that contributes to the audience's willingness to wait is the sheer amount of content available.

It's easier to wait an extra couple months for a movie to show up on Disney+ when there is so much other stuff to watch in the meantime (on any number of streaming services).

 

[Ayla]

Well if studios lose theaters….either the price of movie tickets will be nothing compared to the cost of streaming/PVOD…or the quality will drop…. most studios have cut back on the production costs on their streaming content…. Which tells me streaming has not proven to be the cash cow many thought it would be

As someone who has every major streaming service since I cut the cord… the streamer I watch the least is Netflix…The one streaming service that does not rely on theaters…. They Probably have about 1 item that breaks through the mainstream a year and most films are generally awful

I wish we had Neflix, only for Happy Gilmore 2.

 

[Dranth]

4) Because the general public are morons who have no manners.

The most under rated reason.

At this point we only see movies in the theater one or two times a year. Additionally, we only go to showings early in the morning because it seems to be the best way to minimize the number of morons attending.

Honestly, why on earth would I want to pay any amount of money to deal with how obnoxious other people are? I know it was an extreme situation, but what happened with Minecraft is exactly the type of thing that makes going to the theaters unappealing.

 

[DKampy]

and even Apple all have streaming exclusives that have been quality content.

Actually one of my favorite streamers have been Apple for it’s quality in shows like Silo, Severance, Ted Lasso, The Studio, Shrinking among many others…. I am looking forward to begin watching the 2nd season of Platonic

 

[DKampy]

The most under rated reason.

At this point we only see movies in the theater one or two times a year. Additionally, we only go to showings early in the morning because it seems to be the best way to minimize the number of morons attending.

Honestly, why on earth would I want to pay any amount of money to deal with how obnoxious other people are? I know it was an extreme situation, but what happened with Minecraft is exactly the type of thing that makes going to the theaters unappealing.

I must live in the rare well behaved area…. I have rarely encountered any misbehaved individuals…. The only one I can think of offhand is someone brought a screaming baby to a screening of Alien Romulus last year… but other that I have not had any issues….there were times I was worried with people having full on loud conversations through the opening trailers…. But once the movies started they were fine… and my theater does fairly well… even the smaller movies see a decent crowd…. I would never watch Minecraft…. Morons or not

 

[FrontierSpirit]

So excited to watch Wednesday tonight with family. Hope it’s great.

Wednesday so far is really good.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Actually one of my favorite streamers have been Apple for it’s quality in shows like Silo, Severance, Ted Lasso, The Studio, Shrinking among many others…. I am looking forward to begin watching the 2nd season of Platonic

Agree, they have some great shows