Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Shut up.

I’ll speak my mind if I want to and I don’t need some hot-headed bullies telling me what I’m allowed to say, speak, or think.

Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

 

[easyrowrdw]

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lands At $117M+, Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Stars & Director Matt Shakman – Box Office Update

Marvel Studios/Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter than projections in its first box office weekend with $117.6 million. Still records were broken.

deadline.com

That was a really interesting and informative article. Thanks for sharing it

 

[Disney Irish]

JWR, at a lower budget, is already over $700M WW. I don’t think either Superman or FF:FS touch that, so they’re playing for second place. Based on the cash they’ve gathered so far, looks like Superman will eke out a win for second place (though international numbers are soft - but the studios likely keep a smaller portion of that anyway)

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

In all fairness I think its too early to tell. Will it hit $1B, maybe not. So maybe cut that poster a little slack.

I think it'll do "well" comparatively based on where the MCU is at today with most of the public. I think it clears most of the MCU movies of the last couple years, which is saying something. And I think this might be a good sign that Doomsday and Secret Wars might do better than what some were thinking, ie that the MCU was basically dead and on life support. So the MCUs demise might have been overblown just a bit.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

 

[Disney Irish]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

If I'm being honest, I think anyone that thought it would be a $1B movie was probably just fooling themselves. As we've seen only blue aliens seems to hit $1B (that assumes that Avatar does too) in 2025.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

How many people outside of the most faithful MCU fans thought this would realistically get to a billion?

I don't think there was any serious expectation this or Superman would reach that number

 

[Disney Irish]

How many people outside of the most faithful MCU fans thought this would realistically get to a billion?

I don't think there was any serious expectation this or Superman would reach that number

Exactly, I don't think anyone in the industry was talking $1B for either movie. I don't think even Jurassic was even in that conversation for the most part.

I think the industry is struggling right now to figure out which movies realistically have a shot to hit $1B+. Like I mentioned, it seems only blue aliens hit that mark in 2025.

 

[Nevermore525]

Exactly, I don't think anyone in the industry was talking $1B for either movie. I don't think even Jurassic was even in that conversation for the most part.

I think the industry is struggling right now to figure out which movies realistically have a shot to hit $1B+. Like I mentioned, it seems only blue aliens hit that mark in 2025.

Blue Aliens, and cute animals with an outside shot that will be Asia reception dependent for $1B

 

[Disney Irish]

Blue Aliens, and cute animals with an outside shot that will be Asia reception dependent for $1B

I'm not even sure Z2 hits this year, we'll see. But it'll be interesting to see the headlines (and the many denials that'll happen here) at the end of the year when its only Disney movies that hit $1B+. Got a shipment of copium heading in right now.

 

[Nevermore525]

I'm not even sure Z2 hits this year, we'll see. But it'll be interesting to see the headlines (and the many denials that'll happen here) at the end of the year when its only Disney movies that hit $1B+. Got a shipment of copium heading in right now.

The only thing that could help Z2 is it being the Year of the Snake and their marketing so far seems to have leaned into that. At least in Asia where Hollywood has lost all favor

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

…these children

You mean the “new science” of YouTube trailer clicks isn’t as ironclad as it appears on the pod-o-sphere?

More study is needed…

…I’ll see my way out now

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

I think you’re way over

The $100 worldwide number makes that Nearly impossible

But we’ll see

 

[CoastalElite64]

FF being in the same ballpark as Superman is respectable. Hopefully it has legs, but China was not here for either of them.

 

[BrianLo]

Movies with A- cinema scores average out to a 3.67X multiplier. Big budget tentpoles average to a 2.97X multiplier.

I might have been a bit overeager guessing at 750 and wanted a prior range of 650-750, but I don’t feel shame with a little predictive optimism.

95% of the predictions that I’ve seen here have been well south of 1B though. Very few of the MCU first run hero films, even at the peak, debuted over 1B. Maybe just Black Panther and Captain Marvel?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Very few of the MCU first run hero films, even at the peak, debuted over 1B. Maybe just Black Panther and Captain Marvel?

That's correct.

I thought Spider-Man: Homecoming* did, but it made a little under $900 million worldwide.

Deadpool and GotG both were over $750 million, but well under $1 billion. Doctor Strange under $700 million

*If we're counting this new F4 as "first run" after 3 previous movies by other studios, I'm counting MCU Spider-Man

 

[TalkingHead]

Finally saw Superman and thought it was very fun and well mounted. Popcorn movie of the summer imo.

 

[BrianLo]

That's correct.

I thought Spider-Man: Homecoming* did, but it made a little under $900 million worldwide.

Deadpool and GotG both were over $750 million, but well under $1 billion. Doctor Strange under $700 million

*If we're counting this new F4 as "first run" after 3 previous movies by other studios, I'm counting MCU Spider-Man

Totally, I was counting Spiderman as well in my off the brain calculus! I’m impressed I knew that off the top of my head.

Anyways, I don’t see this as a bad result given where the MCU is at these days. Unless it has a terrible multiplier, it seems pretty successful to me.

 

[LSLS]

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million. I'll say again, this was one of the two franchises they have pushed as a big hitter they have left. I'm pretty well documented that I didn't really buy it, but a lot did. If it comes in just "Ok", I think real worry sets in.

Personally, I tried and couldn't make it happen this past weekend. I'm pretty sure I'll get a chance this coming weekend (though I never did get to Thunderbolts even though I really wanted to see that as well).

 

[Willmark]

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million. I'll say again, this was one of the two franchises they have pushed as a big hitter they have left. I'm pretty well documented that I didn't really buy it, but a lot did. If it comes in just "Ok", I think real worry sets in.

Personally, I tried and couldn't make it happen this past weekend. I'm pretty sure I'll get a chance this coming weekend (though I never did get to Thunderbolts even though I really wanted to see that as well).

Same here, life got in the way the last week so it’s looking like this weekend for us.

 

[Disney Irish]

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million. I'll say again, this was one of the two franchises they have pushed as a big hitter they have left. I'm pretty well documented that I didn't really buy it, but a lot did. If it comes in just "Ok", I think real worry sets in.

Personally, I tried and couldn't make it happen this past weekend. I'm pretty sure I'll get a chance this coming weekend (though I never did get to Thunderbolts even though I really wanted to see that as well).

I really think we need to stop talking "expectation" in terms of what "we" think Disney or any other studios expects for a film. We actually have no idea what any studio expects, and in almost all cases I suspect we're wildly off. It really comes down to what we actually expect a particular movie to do not what the studio does, so we should frame it that way.

So if you want to talk about expectation just frame it differently, stop using "they expect" and start using "I expect".