Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lands At $117M+, Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Stars & Director Matt Shakman – Box Office Update

Marvel Studios/Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter than projections in its first box office weekend with $117.6 million. Still records were broken.

deadline.com

Looks to be pulling a bit ahead of projections now. Let’s see if we get an A- or A CinemaScore.

I don’t think the MCU is in a bad position heading into Avengers. Even though Thunderbolts was super soft, there may be willingness to watch it for homework post theatrically.

 

[DKampy]

I guess you're right, I forgot about Dr Doom, never having been there its easy to forget which characters are and are not allowed since I don't look at the old MCA contract everyday.

It’s too bad…. Because either the current aesthetic F4 would be a perfect fit for Tomorrowland

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s too bad…. Because either the current aesthetic F4 would be a perfect fit for Tomorrowland

Yes, that is why the hope is that if F4 does well it'll lead to a DL TL redo using those aesthetics. I guess they could do an MK TL too, but just not reference the F4 directly and use the aesthetics only.

 

[JackCH]

Saw FF today and really enjoyed it! A few criticisms but overall a really solid film and my favorite since Endgame! (Not counting No Way Home)

 

[vikescaper]

It’s too bad…. Because either the current aesthetic F4 would be a perfect fit for Tomorrowland

I really want an Excelsior themed Astro orbiter.

 

[Disney Analyst]

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lands At $117M+, Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Stars & Director Matt Shakman – Box Office Update

Marvel Studios/Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter than projections in its first box office weekend with $117.6 million. Still records were broken.

deadline.com

Looks to be pulling a bit ahead of projections now. Let’s see if we get an A- or A CinemaScore.

I don’t think the MCU is in a bad position heading into Avengers. Even though Thunderbolts was super soft, there may be willingness to watch it for homework post theatrically.

A- it seems.

 

[Disgruntled Walt]

Great film! Saw it tonight! Best since No Way Home!

 

[Disney Analyst]

SATURDAY AM: The Fantastic Four: First Steps at $120M-$125M is one of the sixth best openings for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title post Covid and that’s a great thing. For all the ‘does it or does it not beat Superman?’ in the Coke and Pepsi fight between Marvel and DC – who cares. It’s the fourth $100M-plus opening of the year for a movie and that spells excellent for the business, not to mention it’s solid footing for a superhero movie.

There is still a path to $125M, as we told you the movie has been pacing like James Gunn’s Superman. Yesterday’s first/day previews for Fantastic Four came in at $56.3M, which is nickels ahead of Superman‘s $56.1M. Wouldn’t ya know — the MCU title also received an A- CinemaScore, the same as Superman. If the movie comes in under $125M, box office nerds, it’s not the end of the world or the demise of the superhero movie. As we always report, and this was true pre-Covid, predicting $100M+ openings given the small sampling isn’t a perfect science.

Some in the industry had their doubts as to whether Fantastic Four could tip $100M as this was a period movie, however, rivals are applauding Disney‘s marketing campaign which connected with audiences.

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lands At $117M+, Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Stars & Director Matt Shakman – Box Office Update

Marvel Studios/Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter than projections in its first box office weekend with $117.6 million. Still records were broken.

deadline.com

 

[CoastalElite64]

Finally a great FF film and it has some Interstellar beats.

 

[JackCH]

Finally a great FF film and it has some Interstellar beats.

The second act of this film is one of my favorites of the whole MCU. In part because of the Interstellar beats.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Fantastic Four was as good as new Superman. Both a little silly for me but I like the characters. My husband liked it. Jurassic still best of the three. Big guy in Fantastic felt a little like time bandits .

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Updated estimate for FF is $118 million domestic opening, still higher than the $100-$110 million going into the weekend

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Updated estimate for FF is $118 million domestic opening, still higher than the $100-$110 million going into the weekend

Anytime they come in over the prediction is a small win for Hollywood these days.

 

[Disney Analyst]

SUNDAY AM: Refresh for more….Ok, ok, ok, so Marvel Studios/Disney‘s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter at $118M after a -42% slide on Saturday against Friday/previews for what was $33.2M. As we said yesterday, cynics, go pound sand. $100M-plus opening for the industry? What major studio wouldn’t want that? Also, for a superhero movie to continue to do $100M+ in its 3-day starts, va bene.

Still, that’s a steep Friday/previews to Saturday decline, which indicates the movie was front-loaded. Nobody was spotting that yesterday, the lowest was a $120M debut. And families always go to the movies on Saturday. Fantastic Four‘s fall is sharper than Superman (-33%), Thunderbolts* (-22%), Deadpool & Wolverine (-36%), and Captain America: Brave New World (-32%).

Essentially, fewer families went to see Marvel’s first family than DC Studios’ Superman. Go figure. According to EntTelligence, while metro centers with populations over 1M overperformed on Fantastic Four: First Steps, rural and suburban areas (where families live) under performed on average -13%. Also, kids under 13 only repped 13% of the population. It just is what it is. It doesn’t mean Fantastic Four is broken, it’s just a crappy thing when the industry overprojects on a big movie, and then it comes in lighter by Sunday and Monday. Disney figures that Fantastic Four will ease -16% today with $27.8M.

The norm attendance for families to a PG-13 superhero movie is 21% per EntTelligence. Fantastic Four came in at 17%.

I’m telling you again for the Nth time: whenever tracking or studio’s distribution departments project on $100M+ openings, there’s always a rounding an error. It’s never perfect. One box office insider said “On Friday, I had Fantastic Four doing $135M.”

Also, there’s a lot of PG-13 family entertainment in the market this weekend with the third weekend of Superman doing $24.8M, and Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth at $13M in its fourth sesh.

Also good to note that older audiences embraced Fantastic Four more (maybe it’s the period of it all that kept some families away) with Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak showing that the best definite recommends came from 35-44 at 80%, 45-54 at 72% and over 55 at 78% versus 18-24 at 69% and 25-34 at 69%.

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lands At $117M+, Opening Reps Record For Franchise, Stars & Director Matt Shakman – Box Office Update

Marvel Studios/Disney's The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter than projections in its first box office weekend with $117.6 million. Still records were broken.

deadline.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

The date to look at is next Sunday (8/3)…the cake is typically baked by then. It needs a really strong daily and pick up overseas to approach “big” status that was often prophesied for it further out

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

The movie had higher preview grosses than Superman, but will end up with a lower opening weekend total

MCU movies have been front loaded of late, but we won't know how true that will be for F4 until next weekend.

Better word of mouth should help, but Thunderbolts didn't benefit from that, so who knows?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The movie had higher preview grosses than Superman, but will end up with a lower opening weekend total

MCU movies have been front loaded of late, but we won't know how true that will be for F4 until next weekend.

Better word of mouth should help, but Thunderbolts didn't benefit from that, so who knows?

Fantastic four has a disadvantage in that it doesn’t have the resonance outside the comic book core that a lot of the other properties have found…for whatever reason?

The muppets of marvel is being put to the test this week again

 

[Disney Irish]

Fantastic four has a disadvantage in that it doesn’t have the resonance outside the comic book core that a lot of the other properties have found…for whatever reason?

The muppets of marvel is being put to the test this week again

Except it seems to resonate more internationally than Superman at least, as its at $100M right now which is $5M ahead of Superman's international opening. So all in all its opening basically is the same as Superman as any difference is minor, something we've been saying the last couple weeks, its tracking the same. I think the idea here is not that F4 doesn't resonate, because I think they do as its just "family" which resonates with almost everyone, its that the previous movies haven't been compelling enough to drive audiences at that time.

So we'll see if this offering continues to be compelling in the weeks to come, but so far this start looks promising. As its checked all the boxes for a good opening.

 

[Tha Realest]

JWR, at a lower budget, is already over $700M WW. I don’t think either Superman or FF:FS touch that, so they’re playing for second place. Based on the cash they’ve gathered so far, looks like Superman will eke out a win for second place (though international numbers are soft - but the studios likely keep a smaller portion of that anyway)