Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

SUNDAY AM: Refresh for more….Ok, ok, ok, so Marvel Studios/Disney‘s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is coming in lighter at $118M after a -42% slide on Saturday against Friday/previews for what was $33.2M. As we said yesterday, cynics, go pound sand. $100M-plus opening for the industry? What major studio wouldn’t want that? Also, for a superhero movie to continue to do $100M+ in its 3-day starts, va bene.

Still, that’s a steep Friday/previews to Saturday decline, which indicates the movie was front-loaded. Nobody was spotting that yesterday, the lowest was a $120M debut. And families always go to the movies on Saturday. Fantastic Four‘s fall is sharper than Superman (-33%), Thunderbolts* (-22%), Deadpool & Wolverine (-36%), and Captain America: Brave New World (-32%).

Essentially, fewer families went to see Marvel’s first family than DC Studios’ Superman. Go figure. According to EntTelligence, while metro centers with populations over 1M overperformed on Fantastic Four: First Steps, rural and suburban areas (where families live) under performed on average -13%. Also, kids under 13 only repped 13% of the population. It just is what it is. It doesn’t mean Fantastic Four is broken, it’s just a crappy thing when the industry overprojects on a big movie, and then it comes in lighter by Sunday and Monday. Disney figures that Fantastic Four will ease -16% today with $27.8M.

The norm attendance for families to a PG-13 superhero movie is 21% per EntTelligence. Fantastic Four came in at 17%.

I’m telling you again for the Nth time: whenever tracking or studio’s distribution departments project on $100M+ openings, there’s always a rounding an error. It’s never perfect. One box office insider said “On Friday, I had Fantastic Four doing $135M.”

Also, there’s a lot of PG-13 family entertainment in the market this weekend with the third weekend of Superman doing $24.8M, and Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth at $13M in its fourth sesh.

Also good to note that older audiences embraced Fantastic Four more (maybe it’s the period of it all that kept some families away) with Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak showing that the best definite recommends came from 35-44 at 80%, 45-54 at 72% and over 55 at 78% versus 18-24 at 69% and 25-34 at 69%.

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lighter At $118M, But Still Super In Opening – Box Office Update

'Fantastic Four: First Steps' is looking at a $125 million at the U.S box office on its opening weekend.

deadline.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

The date to look at is next Sunday (8/3)…the cake is typically baked by then. It needs a really strong daily and pick up overseas to approach “big” status that was often prophesied for it further out

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

The movie had higher preview grosses than Superman, but will end up with a lower opening weekend total

MCU movies have been front loaded of late, but we won't know how true that will be for F4 until next weekend.

Better word of mouth should help, but Thunderbolts didn't benefit from that, so who knows?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The movie had higher preview grosses than Superman, but will end up with a lower opening weekend total

MCU movies have been front loaded of late, but we won't know how true that will be for F4 until next weekend.

Better word of mouth should help, but Thunderbolts didn't benefit from that, so who knows?

Fantastic four has a disadvantage in that it doesn’t have the resonance outside the comic book core that a lot of the other properties have found…for whatever reason?

The muppets of marvel is being put to the test this week again

 

[Disney Irish]

Fantastic four has a disadvantage in that it doesn’t have the resonance outside the comic book core that a lot of the other properties have found…for whatever reason?

The muppets of marvel is being put to the test this week again

Except it seems to resonate more internationally than Superman at least, as its at $100M right now which is $5M ahead of Superman's international opening. So all in all its opening basically is the same as Superman as any difference is minor, something we've been saying the last couple weeks, its tracking the same. I think the idea here is not that F4 doesn't resonate, because I think they do as its just "family" which resonates with almost everyone, its that the previous movies haven't been compelling enough to drive audiences at that time.

So we'll see if this offering continues to be compelling in the weeks to come, but so far this start looks promising. As its checked all the boxes for a good opening.

 

[Tha Realest]

JWR, at a lower budget, is already over $700M WW. I don’t think either Superman or FF:FS touch that, so they’re playing for second place. Based on the cash they’ve gathered so far, looks like Superman will eke out a win for second place (though international numbers are soft - but the studios likely keep a smaller portion of that anyway)

 

[Tha Realest]

Shut up.

I’ll speak my mind if I want to and I don’t need some hot-headed bullies telling me what I’m allowed to say, speak, or think.

Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

 

[easyrowrdw]

‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Lighter At $118M, But Still Super In Opening – Box Office Update

'Fantastic Four: First Steps' is looking at a $125 million at the U.S box office on its opening weekend.

deadline.com

That was a really interesting and informative article. Thanks for sharing it

 

[Disney Irish]

JWR, at a lower budget, is already over $700M WW. I don’t think either Superman or FF:FS touch that, so they’re playing for second place. Based on the cash they’ve gathered so far, looks like Superman will eke out a win for second place (though international numbers are soft - but the studios likely keep a smaller portion of that anyway)

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

In all fairness I think its too early to tell. Will it hit $1B, maybe not. So maybe cut that poster a little slack.

I think it'll do "well" comparatively based on where the MCU is at today with most of the public. I think it clears most of the MCU movies of the last couple years, which is saying something. And I think this might be a good sign that Doomsday and Secret Wars might do better than what some were thinking, ie that the MCU was basically dead and on life support. So the MCUs demise might have been overblown just a bit.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

 

[Disney Irish]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

If I'm being honest, I think anyone that thought it would be a $1B movie was probably just fooling themselves. As we've seen only blue aliens seems to hit $1B (that assumes that Avatar does too) in 2025.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

How many people outside of the most faithful MCU fans thought this would realistically get to a billion?

I don't think there was any serious expectation this or Superman would reach that number

 

[Disney Irish]

How many people outside of the most faithful MCU fans thought this would realistically get to a billion?

I don't think there was any serious expectation this or Superman would reach that number

Exactly, I don't think anyone in the industry was talking $1B for either movie. I don't think even Jurassic was even in that conversation for the most part.

I think the industry is struggling right now to figure out which movies realistically have a shot to hit $1B+. Like I mentioned, it seems only blue aliens hit that mark in 2025.

 

[Nevermore525]

Exactly, I don't think anyone in the industry was talking $1B for either movie. I don't think even Jurassic was even in that conversation for the most part.

I think the industry is struggling right now to figure out which movies realistically have a shot to hit $1B+. Like I mentioned, it seems only blue aliens hit that mark in 2025.

Blue Aliens, and cute animals with an outside shot that will be Asia reception dependent for $1B

 

[Disney Irish]

Blue Aliens, and cute animals with an outside shot that will be Asia reception dependent for $1B

I'm not even sure Z2 hits this year, we'll see. But it'll be interesting to see the headlines (and the many denials that'll happen here) at the end of the year when its only Disney movies that hit $1B+. Got a shipment of copium heading in right now.

 

[Nevermore525]

I'm not even sure Z2 hits this year, we'll see. But it'll be interesting to see the headlines (and the many denials that'll happen here) at the end of the year when its only Disney movies that hit $1B+. Got a shipment of copium heading in right now.

The only thing that could help Z2 is it being the Year of the Snake and their marketing so far seems to have leaned into that. At least in Asia where Hollywood has lost all favor

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hey my dude how are things looking now on this?

…these children

You mean the “new science” of YouTube trailer clicks isn’t as ironclad as it appears on the pod-o-sphere?

More study is needed…

…I’ll see my way out now

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Will be interesting to see if it follows typical movie patterns or becomes one of the anomalies that defies the 50% weekly box office drop.

I think you’re way over

The $100 worldwide number makes that Nearly impossible

But we’ll see

 

[CoastalElite64]

FF being in the same ballpark as Superman is respectable. Hopefully it has legs, but China was not here for either of them.